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Biodiversity loss remains one of the most pressing issues for global governance. This situation can be seen in Argentina and Chile through the effects of biodiversity loss caused by the introduction and expansion of beavers in Southern Patagonia. This case is interesting because, despite the Beagle conflict (i.e., the border dispute) between these countries some decades ago, nowadays Argentina and Chile are facing shared environmental problems and both are actively seeking solutions. The main question in this paper is, how did Argentina and Chile search for a solution to shared environmental problems caused by the expansion of beavers in Southern Patagonia? This paper tackles this question and presents the results of the conducted qualitative research. The results indicate that, in order to understand what Argentina and Chile are doing to achieve a solution to their shared environmental problems, research cannot be exclusively focus on domestic affairs. Instead, this issue requires taking into account how international dimensions influenced domestic policies. As this paper argues, in Argentina and Chile, international cooperation is a method of influencing biodiversity governance through funds granted by international organizations and international expert recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates whether exposure to natural disasters very early in the life of a person has persistent effects on her human development outcomes in the case of Argentina. Using the microdata of the 2010 National Census of Population and the Disaster Inventory System's (DesInventar) records of the occurrence of natural disasters, we estimate a differences in differences model, exploiting geographical variation (between districts of Argentina) and temporal variation (between birth cohorts) in the occurrence of natural disasters. Fixed effects are considered by cohorts and districts, as well as control variables. We find that exposure to natural disasters during the first year of life significantly reduces the number of years of schooling achieved in 0.03 years and increases the chances of being unemployed when adult. Importantly, we find that the personal experience of a natural disaster goes beyond individual outcomes, increasing the chances of living in a multidimensionally poor household when adult. Exposure to natural disasters during gestation also has significant detrimental impact on these outcomes. In the context of climate change, in which an increase in the frequency and severity in the occurrence of natural disasters is expected, our results are a call of attention, indicating that it is of outmost importance to design and implement public policies towards increasing the country's preparedness and resilience to natural disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the climatic conditions of warm and cold dry months in the humid and semi-humid Argentine region and some aspects of the regional circulation related to these cases. The climatic analysis of warm (temperatures above percentile 80) and cold (temperatures below percentile 20) dry months is based on precipitation and temperature data registered at reference stations over a period of at least 70 years, while the associated circulation is derived from daily data of geopotential height at 500 hPa from NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 database. The reference station for the center of the country registered a greater number of warm dry months during both the warm season (October-March) and the cold season (April-September), whereas the reference stations in the north-east and center-east showed differences depending on the time of the year, with more cold dry months during the April-September season and more warm dry months in the October-March season. A classification of daily fields of geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa was used to analyze the atmospheric circulation related to warm and cold dry months. The circulation patterns were obtained by applying principal component analysis and cluster analysis. Findings show that some mid-level circulation patterns occur with a significant different frequency during the warm dry months or the cold dry months studied. Finally, cases of spatially extended precipitation-deficit conditions (hereinafter generalized droughts) were studied, noting dominant patterns that are coherent with the previous results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrologic systems are potentially sensitive to climate change. The objective of this paper is to detect possible changes in the runoff regime of mountain rivers in the Province of Mendoza, Argentina. The methodology is based on parametric (Student's t-test) and non-parametric (Mann-Kendall) statistical tests applied to time series of monthly, maximum and minimum flows, and of typical daily flows derived from the flow duration curve. Both tests yielded similar results for a 5% significance level. No trend was detected in monthly, annual, maximum, minimum and typical flow series on the Diamante River at La Jaula and the Grande River at La Gotera. Trends rose with late spring and summer flows in the Mendoza River at Guido. In the Atuel River, at La Angostura, flow trends increased in all months, with the exception of the December through February period. The annual flow of the Tupungato and Mendoza at Guido, the daily minimum of Vacas and Atuel at La Angostura, and the drought flow of Vacas, Tunuyán and Atuel have significantly increasing trends. Puente Sosneado on the Atuel is the only one with negative trends in the flow series corresponding to the February-April period, and to annual and typical flows exceeded 90, 180, 270 and 355 days a year. In summary, of the 210 time series analyzed, only 40 exhibit changes and most of them are associated with low-water periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several studies show that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important factor in determining interannual rainfall variability in South America. This signal is detected in the region including Northeastern Argentina, Uruguay and part of southern Brazil, in the form of excessive rains and big floods in the regional rivers. To check that this relationship was similar in the past the objectives of this paper were to construct a time series of large floods in the Paraná River region from documentary records, during the sixteenth to eighteenth centuries, and to evaluate the relationship between that historical record of extreme floods, the ENSO documentary evidence (Ortlieb, The Documented Historical Record of El Niño Events in Perú: An Update of the Quinn Record (Ortlieb, sixteenth through nineteenth centuries, Diaz and Markgraf, (eds.), El Niño and the southern oscillation. Multiscale variability and global and regional Impacts. Cambridge University Press, pp. 207-295, 2001; Quinn and Neal, The historical record of El Niño events, Bradley and Jones (eds.), Climate since a.d. 1500, Routledges, pp. 623-648, 1992) and the temperature index of the Pacific Ocean (Mann ME et al., Global temperature patterns in past centuries: an interactive presentation, IGBP pages/world data center for paleoclimatology data contribution series #2000-075. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA, 2000). Considering that the period 1904-2000, where 11 out of 16 floods occurred during El Niño events, it can be concluded that the proportion of years with exceptional flow volume in the Paraná River in years with El Niño events in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries was relatively lower than that of the twentieth century. The reason for this difference is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture and meteorological variables are strongly related to each other through different fluxes, constituting a complex network of interactions and feedbacks. Therefore, a better understanding of the temporal and spatial variability of soil moisture and its relationship with meteorological variables acquires a particular interest, especially under climate change conditions. Based on the gap in studies addressing this topic in Argentina, this study aimed to evaluate soil moisture content (SMC) and water deficit (DEF) annual trends between 1990 and 2019 and the contribution of different meteorological variables to those trends. To this end, simulations of SMCand DEF were performed by using a hydrological balance model, driven by meteorological observations of 51 sites distributed throughout Argentina. Since precipitation (PP) and potential evapotranspiration (PE) modulate the simulated soil moisture, annual PP and PE trends were also evaluated to assess the importance of these variables on the observed soil moisture changes. Furthermore, the regional contribution of the meteorological variables to the PE trends was assessed by means of a detrended method. Trends detected in SMC and DEF suggest an increase towards drier conditions in some areas of the country. Changes in PE were the main responsible for changes in SMC and DEF and were more relevant than changes in PP. In sites located in the center and east of the country, maximum and mean temperatures had a greater impact on PE. In sites located in the west of the country, changes in PE were mainly controlled by increases in wind speed and decreases in humidity. Examining the spatio-temporal variability of soil water and the meteorological variables that influence soil water is indispensable to assess climate-induced changes and propose feasible climate change adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Introduction: Cold-adapted bumblebees are vulnerable to climate change (CC). South American Bombus dahlbomii, the southernmost bumblebee worldwide, has strongly declined since the 1990s and may be particularly susceptible to current and future CC. Aims/methods: We asked (1) whether current CC had a role in the observed decline of this species and (2) how projected CC would affect the future distribution of B. dahlbomii. We used a comprehensive record of occurrences for B. dahlbomii and species distribution models (SDMs) to build maps of (1) predicted current climatic suitability using pre-1990s and post-1990s occurrences, and (2) projected current and future climatic suitability under future (2080–2100) RCP 8.5 scenarios predicted by the 5th IPCC Report. Results and discussion: SDMs did not show changes in species climatic suitability pre-1990 vs. post-1990, suggesting no significant role of CC on the observed decline of the species at this time scale. However, a moderate range reduction of 13% and 14% of the ~ 0.041º grid cells was predicted by 2080–2100 under the 70% and 100% consensus models, respectively. Implications for insect conservation: Identifying the threats to B. dahlbomii allows for prioritizing conservation efforts. Short-term threats imposed by invasive bumblebees deserve urgent attention. The potential synergies between this threat and CC need to be understood to better predict the fate of this species. Binational cooperation should guarantee connectivity between climatically suitable areas in Argentina and Chile. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most critical current environmental problems. Global warming is causing substantial species-range shifts and local extirpations, especially for species with restricted distribution ranges. Studies of impact of the climate change on species ranges and environmental suitability have become a fundamental tool for evaluating conservation strategies. However, one important limitation of these approaches is that only species with an adequate number of spatially distinct occurrence records can be modelled, generally excluding threatened rare species from the analyses, a situation referred to as the 'rare species modelling paradox'. To overcome this limitation, we analysed the effect of climate change on the richness of threatened endemic plants of Argentina employing a macroecological modelling approach, using three different modelling techniques (generalized linear mixed models – GLMM, generalized additive models – GAM, and boosted regression trees – BRT), four general circulation models, two representative CO2 concentration pathways (RCPs), and two time periods (2050 and 2070). We identified grid cells with the greatest decline in numbers of threatened endemics, determined species composition in these cells and characterized their vulnerability using three indices. A loss of species richness is observed in ca 83% of the cells, and both protected areas and hotspots of threatened species show significant decrease in future species richness. We identified 32 most affected cells under future climatic projections, including a total of 370 threatened endemic species and exhibiting high beta diversity values (high dissimilarity) among most of the cells. Cells with the highest vulnerability were located along the Central Andes of northwestern Argentina, along the Southern Andean Yungas, High Monte and Central Andean Puna ecoregions, and including a total of 118 threatened endemics (15% of those registered for Argentina) with greater representation of Asteraceae, Apocynaceae, Cactaceae and Iridaceae. However, coverage of protected area network is less than 5% for each of these cells. Our results highlight the urgent need for both in situ and ex situ conservation policies and strategies for the vascular flora of Argentina. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In most nations across the world, the fundamental goal of economic policy is to achieve sustainable economic growth. Economic development, on the other hand, may have an influence on climate change and global warming, which are major worldwide concerns and problems. Thus, this research offers a new perceptive on the influence of renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption on CO2 emissions in Argentina utilizing data from the period between 1965 and 2019. The current research applied the wavelet tools to assess these interconnections. The outcomes of these analyses reveal that the association between the series evolves over both frequency and time. The current analysis uncovers notable wavelet coherence and significant lead and lag connections in the frequency domain, while in the time domain, contradictory correlations are indicated among the variables of interest. From an economic perspective, the outcomes of the wavelet analysis affirm that in the medium and long term, renewable energy consumption contributes to environmental sustainability. Furthermore, in the medium term, trade openness mitigates CO2, although in the long term, no significant connection was found. Moreover, both nonrenewable energy and economic growth contribute to environmental degradation in the short and long term. Finally, the frequency domain causality outcomes reveal that in the long term, economic growth, trade openness, and nonrenewable energy can predict CO2 emissions. The present analysis offers an innovative insight into the interconnection and comovement between CO2 and trade openness, renewable energy utilization, and GDP in the Argentinean economy. The findings from this research should be of interest to economists, researchers, and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interaction of tectonics and climate is considered the main determining factor in the development of different depositional systems (from aeolian to alluvial to lacustrine environments) in intermontane basins. The role of these allogenic controls forces the paleoenvironmental evolution of intermontane basins. In this work, we analyse a Miocene (15–11.5 Ma) synorogenic and volcaniclastic succession of an intermontane basin of the Northpatagonian Andean foreland region. The evolution of the infill was synchronously developed with the Andean uplift and, consequently, with the rain shadow effect generation. A detailed sedimentological and stratigraphic analysis allowed to define eight facies associations, which are lateral and vertical stacked into three different depositional systems. Alluvial depositional systems occurred between 15 and 14.6 Ma, deltaic–lacustrine systems took place between 14.6 and 12.75 Ma, and a reinstatement of alluvial depositional systems occurred between 12.75 and 11.5 Ma. These variations in the depositional systems were contrasted with synchronous tectonic and climatic changes and some considerations about the role of these allogenic controls were discussed to unravel their influence on the paleoenvironmental evolution. The onset of the deltaic–lacustrine depositional system was related to a tectonic reconfiguration whereas the reinstatement of the alluvial depositional system was associated with a regional aridization. Additionally, since the composition of the succession is mainly volcaniclastic, the explosive volcanism is considered and discussed as an extra allogenic control on the evolution of the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the drivers of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is one of the most critical global environmental challenges to mitigate the increasing global temperature. Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are highly variable in space and time and are controlled by multiple proximal drivers, that is, those that affect N2O emissions directly and in short timescales, and distal or indirect drivers that influence emissions over long timescales. Here we present a quantification of N2O emissions in grasslands and forests throughout the Pampas and the Semiarid Chaco in Argentina and reveal distal and proximal drivers, analyzing them in both spatial and temporal models. We measured N2O emissions, soil and climate variables monthly in nine sites over two years. Mean annual temperature and the following soil properties: phosphorous availability, carbon:nitrogen ratio, clay and sand percentages were the main distal drivers controlling N2O emissions in the spatial model, while among proximal drivers, only soil nitrate contents were positively related to N2O emissions. When considering the seasonal variability of N2O emissions (temporal model), we found that emissions were positively related to proximal drivers, such as soil nitrate and soil temperature. Our results show that soil N2O emission drivers differ between spatial and temporal models in natural grasslands and forests, explaining up to 85 and 56% of variations in N2O emissions, respectively. Temperature increased N2O emissions in both spatial and temporal models; therefore, future global warming may increase background emissions from natural ecosystems with important positive feedbacks on the earth system warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of how climatic niches change over evolutionary time has recently attracted the interest of many researchers. Different methodologies have been employed principally to analyze the temporal dynamics of the niche and specially to test for the presence of phylogenetic niche conservatism. Menonvillea, a genus of Brassicaceae including 24 species, is distributed primarily along the Andes of Argentina and Chile, with some taxa growing in southern Patagonia and others in the Atacama Desert and the Chilean Matorral. The genus is highly diversified morphologically but also presents a remarkably wide ecological range, growing from the high Andean elevations, to the dry coastal deserts in Chile, or the Patagonia Steppe in Argentina. In this study, we used molecular phylogenies together with climatic data to study climatic niche evolution in the genus. The results show that the main climatic niche shifts in Menonvillea occurred between the sections Cuneata-Scapigera and sect. Menonvillea throughout the Mid-Late Miocene, and associated with the two main geographical distribution centers of the genus: the highlands of the central-southern Andes and the Atacama Desert-Chilean Matorral, respectively. Climatic niches in these lineages were mainly differentiated by the aridity and potential evapotranspiration, the minimum temperatures of the coldest month, and the temperature annual range and seasonality. Niche evolution in Menonvillea deviated from a Brownian motion process, with most of the climatic dimension best-fitting to an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model of multiple adaptive peaks. Our results also indicated that higher aridity levels and lower annual temperature ranges were associated with the evolution of the annual habit, as exemplified by the distribution of sect. Menonvillea. Finally, the results suggested that climatic niche evolution in Menonvillea exhibited some degree of phylogenetic niche conservatism, fundamentally within the two main lineages (sect. Menonvillea and sects. Cuneata-Scapigera). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Argentine shore of the Rio de la Plata estuary and its southwards adjacent maritime front are normally affected by extratropical positive and negative storm surges that affect human activities seriously. Positive surges can raise the water level in the estuary by more than 3 m over the predicted tide; thus, flooding the coastal plain where over 13 million people live and causing extensive property damage. Sometimes, there has been loss of life too. Although less populated than the coastal plain, the maritime front has many important tourist resorts and also undergoes severe beach erosion processes and loss of property owing to positive surges. Negative surges are particularly troublesome in the Rio de la Plata because they critically affect navigation safety and drinking water supply by lowering the predicted water level in an amount that sometimes reached more than 4 m. A remarkable point is that the same storm event can simultaneously give rise to a positive surge on the maritime front and a negative one in the Rio de la Plata. The environmental impacts of positive storm surges are strongly aggravated by human intervention. At the same time, sea level rise due to global climatic change has also its influence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Silvopasture systems combine trees, forage, and livestock in a variety of different species and management regimes, depending on the biophysical, economic, cultural, and market factors in a region. We describe and compare actual farm practices and current research trials of silvopastoral systems in eight regions within seven countries of the world: Misiones and Corrientes provinces, Argentina; La Pampa province, Argentina; northwestern Minas Gerais, Brazil; the Aysén region of Patagonia, Chile; the North Island of New Zealand; the Southeast United States; Paraguay; and Uruguay. Some countries use native trees and existing forests; some use plantations, particularly of exotic species. Natural forest silvopasture systems generally add livestock in extensive systems, to capture the benefits of shade, forage, and income diversification without much added inputs. Plantation forest systems are more purposive and intensive, with more focus on joint production and profits, for small owners, large ranches, and timber companies. Trends suggest that more active management of both natural and planted silvopastoral systems will be required to enhance joint production of timber and livestock, achieve income diversification and reduce financial risk, make more profit, improve environmental benefits, and realize more resilience to adapt to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The phylogeography of two sympatric Magellanic limpets of the genus Nacella was studied. The historical and contemporary processes underlying their intraspecific patterns in Argentina were inferred using the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I gene. Results indicate different evolutionary histories in the two species. A recent geographic and demographic expansion ~11,000 years ago, with absence of current genetic structuring, is proposed for Nacella magellanica. In contrast, the phylogeographic pattern showed noticeable phylogenetic and geographic discontinuities in Nacella deaurata; slow continuous population size growth with current low levels of gene flow among its populations was also observed, indicating demographic equilibrium. The beginning of divergence between these closely related limpets was estimated at about 270,000 years ago with very little or none gene flow occurring after their splitting. These contrasting historic patterns could be related to distinctive responses to climate changes associated with Pleistocene glaciations, as a result of differences in their ecological traits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present investigation aims at identifying the needs of the Argentinean agro-business sector for climate research and information. Our approach is focused on any type of climate information from past observations to seasonal prediction and climate change projections. We tried, in particular, to evaluate the possible existence of specific research themes that would be of major interest for these agriculture end-users. We interviewed representatives of seventeen companies from three major agrobusiness sectors: (1) regional/national entities such as agricultural associations, cooperatives and commercial trade boards; (2) insurance companies in the Argentinean agro-insurance market; and (3) large national and international companies representing cereal producers, agro-chemistry and agro-seeds. While all the interviewees recognized the strong influence of climate on their activities, they all pointed out that, at the time of making decision, they considered the political and economic risks rather than the climate one. In many aspects, climate is often considered as a fatality against which it is difficult to be protected. An interesting result is the confidence of the private sectors in the climate information provided by public sources (INTA, SMN, Universities) although they contract private consultants for frequent reports and tendencies. Finally, we explain how such sectors could make a better use of climate information (seasonal prediction, climate change scenarios) that could be integrated in their business projections. In particular, the development of new financial contracts (climate derivatives) open in countries with a relatively poor insurance history new ways to protect the different agricultural sectors, from the producer to large companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present article is a contribution to the CLARIS WorkPackage “Climate and Agriculture”, and aims at testing whether it is possible to predict yields and optimal sowing dates using seasonal climate information at three sites (Pergamino, Marcos Juarez and Anguil) which are representative of different climate and soil conditions in Argentina. Considering that we focus on the use of climate information only, and that official long time yield series are not always reliable and often influenced by both climate and technology changes, we decided to build a dataset with yields simulated by the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) crop model, already calibrated in the selected three sites and for the two crops of interest (maize and soybean). We simulated yields for three different sowing dates for each crop in each of the three sites. Also considering that seasonal forecasts have a higher skill when using the 3-month average precipitation and temperature forecasts, and that regional climate change scenarios present less uncertainty at similar temporal scales, we decided to focus our analysis on the use of quarterly precipitation and temperature averages, measured at the three sites during the crop cycle. This type of information is used as input (predictand) for non-linear statistical methods (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, MARS; and classification trees) in order to predict yields and their dependency to the chosen sowing date. MARS models show that the most valuable information to predict yield amplitude is the 3-month average precipitation around flowering. Classification trees are used to estimate whether climate information can be used to infer an optimal sowing date in order to optimize yields. In order to simplify the problem, we set a default sowing date (the most representative for the crop and the site) and compare the yield amplitudes between such a default date and possible alternative dates sometimes used by farmers. Above normal average temperatures at the beginning and the end of the crop cycle lead to respectively later and earlier optimal sowing. Using this classification, yields can be potentially improved by changing sowing date for maize but it is more limited for soybean. More generally, the sites and crops which have more variable yields are also the ones for which the proposed methodology is the most efficient. However, a full evaluation of the accuracy of seasonal forecasts should be the next step before confirming the reliability of this methodology under real conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Synergistic combinations of climatic and land use changes have the potential to produce the most dramatic impacts on land cover. Although this is widely accepted, empirical examples, particularly involving deforestation in Latin America, are still very few. The geographic extent and causes of deforestation in subtropical seasonally dry forests of the world have received very little attention. This is especially true for the Chaco forests in South America, which are being lost at an alarming rate, sometimes higher than those reported for tropical forests. On this basis, the aims of this study were to analyze the changes in land cover that have occurred during the last three decades of the 20th century in the Chaco forests of central Argentina, and to explain the factors that have driven those changes. Results show major land cover changes. Approximately 80% of the area that was originally undisturbed forest is now occupied by crops, pastures, and secondary scrub. The main proximate cause of deforestation has been agricultural expansion, soybean cultivation in particular. This appears as the result of the synergistic convergence of climatic, technological, and socioeconomic factors, supporting the hypothesis of a multiple-factor explanation for forest loss, while providing one of the very few existing analyses of changes in subtropical forests of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer rainfall variability (October to March) shows inter-annual to multi-decadal fluctuations over a vast area of subtropical Argentina between 28°S–38°S and 65°W–70°W. Statistically significant oscillations of quasi-period in the bands of 18–21, 6, 4 and 2 years can be found throughout the region and intra-regionally, though the latter are variable. The lower frequency variation produces alternating episodes of above and below normal rainfall each lasting roughly 9 years. This quasi-fluctuation appears to be shared with the summer rainfall region of South Africa and were in-phase related one another until mid-1970s. The teleconnection between both subtropical regions could be generated by an atmospheric-oceanic bridge through the global sea surface temperatures (SSTs), particularly those of the equatorial-tropical South Atlantic. From mid-1970s, the alternating wet and dry pattern has been interrupted in the Argentine region producing the longest, as yet unfinished, wet spell of the century. Thus, a significant change of the long-term variation was observed around 1977 toward lower frequencies. Since then the statistical model that explains more than 89% of the variance of the series until 1977, diverges from the observed values in the 1980s and 1990s. In addition the Yamamoto statistical index, employed to detect a climatic jump, reaches its major value in 1973 at the beginning of the current long wet spell. Therefore the change could be located between 1973 and 1977. Application of the t-student's test gives significant differences of mean values for pre-1977 and post-1977 sub-samples from both individual time series and the regional index series. The spectral analysis also shows changes in energy bands in concordance with the features of the change that occurred from mid-1970s. The change gives rise to a significant increment of more than 20% in average of normal rainfall over the region. Conversely, a drought between mid-1980s and the 1990s has been observed in the South African counterpart with severe characteristics, thereby continuing the quasi-18-year oscillation. Consequently, the low-frequency coherent behaviour between both the Argentine and South African regions is lost from the mid-1970s. The analysis of association of wet/dry spells and warm/cold, El Niño/La Niña episodes appears to be not significant at scales of year-to-year variability although at decadal to multi-decadal scales the association could be relevant. More than one process of multi-decadal variability of global SSTs could influence the Argentine summer rainfall region and the former bi-decadal teleconnection. Finally, potential hypothetical factors of change are discussed, such as the strengthening of direct and indirect mechanisms of moisture flux transport associated with global warming, low-level atmospheric circulation changes and/or to SSTs mean condition long-term variations over tropical and subtropical South Atlantic and South Pacific oceans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]