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Rainfall in the Moist Tropical Caribbean Region (MTCR) in Costa Rica occurs practically throughout the year, with the quarters June–August (JJA) and December–February (DJF) concentrating over 70% of annual rainfall. Contrarily, in March–April and September–October, it rains below 100 mm per month. This seasonal rainfall behavior makes the region ideal for producing bananas (Musa spp.) and pineapple (Ananas comosus) for export (10% and 8% of total exports in 2021, respectively). A national-scale study determined that agriculture in the MTCR is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate changes. However, the climate in this region has been poorly studied so far. This research analyzed the spatial and temporal variability of annual, monthly, and seasonal (DJF, JJA, SO) rainfall in the MTCR and how they change in the study period based on quality-checked series of daily rainfall from 28 weather stations in two periods: 1985–2009 and 1997–2019. The results show that rainfall regimes in the region are variable in space and throughout the year, with peaks occurring close to the mountain range and minimum values close to the coast. Trends were statistically significant in the period 1985–2009 with a predominance of significant positive trends in DJF and significant negative trends in SO. No significant trends (positive or negative) were observed in the period 1997–2019. JJA rainfall has uneven regional distribution and presents a positive and significant trend in the mountain region. This paper contributes to filling the knowledge gap in rainfall seasonality, variability, and trends in a region where banana and pineapple commercial plantations are fundamental to the country's economy thus providing information to decision-making in the agri-food sector to reduce the negative impacts of changing rainfall regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variations in the Caribbean, largely manifest in rainfall activity, have important consequences for the large-scale water budget, natural vegetation, and land use in the region. The wet and dry seasons will be defined, and the important roles played by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in modulating the rainfall during these seasons will be discussed. The seasonal climate forecasts in this paper are made by 13 state of the art coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CGCMs) and by the Florida State University Synthetic Superensemble (FSUSSE), whose forecasts are obtained by a weighted combination of the individual CGCM forecasts based on a training period. The success of the models in simulating the observed 1989–2001 climatology of the various forecast parameters will be examined and linked to the models’ success in predicting the seasonal climate for individual years. Seasonal forecasts will be examined for precipitation, sea-surface temperature (SST), 2-meter air temperature, and 850 hPa u- and v-wind components during the period 1989–2001. Evaluation metrics include root mean square (RMS) error and Brier skill score. It will be shown that the FSUSSE is superior to the individual CGCMs and their ensemble mean both in simulating the 1989–2001 climatology for the various parameters and in predicting the seasonal climate of the various parameters for individual years. The seasonal climate forecasts of the FSUSSE and of the ensemble mean of the 13 state of the art CGCMs will be evaluated for years (during the period 1989–2001) that have particular ENSO and NAO signals that are known to influence Caribbean weather, particularly the rainfall. It will be shown that the FSUSSE provides superior forecasts of rainfall, SST, 2-meter air temperature, and 850 hPa u- and v-wind components during dry summers that are modulated by negative SOI and/or positive NAO indices. Such summers have become a feature of a twenty-year pattern of drought in the Caribbean region. The results presented in this paper will show that the FSUSSE is a valuable tool for forecasting rainfall and other atmospheric and oceanic variables during such periods of drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

People with visual impairments (PwVI) represent a heterogeneous social group who often experience significant disabling barriers in exercising their rights throughout their life course. Understanding dimensions of vulnerability of PwVI to disasters and climate change is an important issue to reduce the culture of neglected disasters. To date, few studies have analyzed visual impairment and disaster risk reduction (DRR) in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. This exploratory qualitative research project analyzed how to include PwVI in the DRR policies of Brazil. The research question is: how can we include PwVI in the discussion of DRR and climate change? The response to this question is part of a joint effort that involved a university, a hazard monitoring agency, and three institutions that work with PwVI. The three main results of the project are: (1) a mapping method to identify the exposure of PwVI to landslides and floods, and to create tactile risk maps tailored to them; (2) incorporating the voices of PwVI regarding their vulnerabilities and capacities with respect to disasters and climate change, achieved through shared interaction during 15 face to face interviews and one workshop attended by 100 people; and (3) an initiative of inclusive education to reduce some of the disabling barriers that intensify vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economics of adaptation to climate change relies heavily on comparisons of the benefits and costs of adaptation options that can range from changes in policy to implementing specific projects. Since these benefits are derived from damages avoided by any such adaptation, they are critically dependent on the specification of a baseline. The current exercise paper reinforces this point in an environment that superimposes stochastic coastal storm events on two alternative sea level rise scenarios from two different baselines: one assumes perfect economic efficiency of the sort that could be supported by the availability of actuarially fair insurance and a second in which fundamental market imperfections significantly impair society's ability to spread risk. We show that the value of adaptation can be expressed in terms of differences in expected outcomes damages only if the effected community has access to efficient risk-spreading mechanisms or reflects risk neutrality in its decision-making structure. Otherwise, the appropriate metric for measuring the benefits of adaptation must be derived from certainty equivalents. In these cases, increases in decision-makers' aversion to risk increase the economic value of adaptations that reduce expected damages and diminish the variance of their inter-annual variability. For engineering and other adaptations that involve significant up-front expense followed by ongoing operational cost, increases in decision-makers' aversion increase the value of adaptation and therefore move the date of economically efficient implementation closer to the present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change mitigation will require substantial investments in renewables. In addition, climate change will affect future renewable supply and hence, power sector investment requirements. We study the implications of climate impacts on renewables for power sector investments under deep decarbonization using a global integrated assessment model. We focus on Latin American and Caribbean, an under-studied region but of great interest due to its strong role in international climate mitigation and vulnerability to climate change. We find that accounting for climate impacts on renewables results in significant additional investments ($12–114 billion by 2100 across Latin American countries) for a region with weak financial infrastructure. We also demonstrate that accounting for climate impacts only on hydropower—a primary focus of previous studies—significantly underestimates cumulative investments, particularly in scenarios with high intermittent renewable deployment. Our study underscores the importance of comprehensive analyses of climate impacts on renewables for improved energy planning. Substantial investment will be required in renewables to implement climate change mitigation. Here, the authors focus on Latin America and the Caribbean and find that climate impacts on renewables would result in additional investments $12-114 billion by 2100. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In early September 2017, Irma was the most powerful hurricane that struck the northern Caribbean over the last 100 years. In the 21st century, the stronger types of tropical cyclones will likely increase in frequency due to the climate change and internal climate variability. Lessons to anticipate the response of mangroves to this intensification can be learned from this extreme event. Here, we analysed damages caused in mangrove forests of the Saint Martin Island. Mangroves of this island were previously degraded due to historic human pressures and recent over-urbanisation. Forest inventories and time series of very high resolution satellite images revealed that approximately 80% of the mangrove area was damaged by the hurricane. Results highlighted distinct rates of forest recovery. Early and rapid recoveries were largely observed in most study sites. However, some mangroves were still unable to recover fourteen months after the disturbance. The human-induced degradation of the ecosystem prior to the hurricane is hypothesised to be the main factor controlling the absence of forest recovery. We suggest that human-degraded mangroves will be weakened in the face of such extreme events. We advocate to preserve and restore mangroves in order to guarantee all the valuable ecosystem services they provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change adaptation planning has rapidly expanded to assist with reducing vulnerability to current and projected impacts of climate change. In Caribbean small island developing states (SIDS), planned adaptation is viewed as essential to address their high vulnerability to climate change, and planning has begun in earnest across the region. However, there has been limited analysis of adaptation planning documents in the region to assess their quality and content. This study assesses adaptation planning documents from Caribbean SIDS, focusing on inclusion of key stages of adaptation planning that were identified from international and regionally specific adaptation guidance instruments. Eighty-nine Caribbean adaptation planning documents—including policies, strategies, programs, and projects—were assessed, revealing that they differ considerably from guidance instruments. Key areas for improvement include the need for (i) more direct linkages between identification of adaptation options and assessments of climate hazards, impacts, vulnerability, and risk; (ii) identification and appraisal of a range of adaptation options; and (iii) increased inclusion and usage of quantitative information about hazards and impacts. Addressing these deficiencies may help to improve the status of adaptation planning in the region and ultimately aid in reducing the high vulnerability of these island nations to the impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Production efficiency is a key determinant of economic growth and demonstrates how a country uses its resources by relating the quantity of its inputs to its outputs. When a natural hazard-induced disaster strikes, it has a devastating impact on capital and labor, but at the same time provides an opportunity to upgrade capital and increase labor demand and training opportunities, thereby potentially boosting production efficiency. We studied the impact of natural hazard-induced disasters on countries' production efficiency, using the case study of hurricanes in the Caribbean. To this end we built a country-specific, time-varying data set of hurricane damage and national output and input indicators for 17 Caribbean countries for the period 1940–2014. Our results, using a stochastic frontier approach, show that there is a short-lived production efficiency boost, and that this can be large for very damaging storms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is posing new challenges to conservation because management policies on protected coral reefs are less effective than they were before the current ecosystem degradation. Coral reefs, the most diverse and complex marine ecosystem provide economic services for millions, but are seriously threatened worldwide because reef-building corals are experiencing bleaching phenomena and a steady decline in abundance. The resources of a Marine Protected Area (MPA) in Cartagena, Colombia, are in constant decline, despite a current management plan and on-site staff, urging new conservation actions. A multidisciplinary team gathered to evaluate management effectiveness including biophysical, socioeconomic and governance indicators. Coral cover and fish diversity and abundance were low both inside and outside the MPA, which suggests a limited efficiency of management. Currently, the MPA is a reef with low coral cover and high algae cover as well as large dead coral areas, which are generally signs of highly degraded reef habitats. Live coral cover in the MPA was represented by pioneer coral species such as Agaricia tenuifolia and Porites astreoides. Nonetheless, 35% of the scleractinian species sampled in the area harbored more than one zooxanthellae symbiont, which suggests potential resistance and resilience against coral bleaching. Maintenance of trophic structure and functional diversity is an important endeavor that should be a priority for management in order to allow ecosystem resilience. Social and governance indicators showed low-income levels and few opportunities for communities living in and around the park, low governability, weak communication among stakeholders and with authorities at different levels. As a result, problems related to over exploitation of resources were commonplace in the MPA. These results reflect low adaptive capacity of communities to comply with restrictive conservation rules, showing that establishment of a protected area is a necessary but insufficient condition to guarantee conservation goals. Ignoring the role of local communities only will exacerbate the problems associated with natural resources. Involvement of communities in strategic ecosystems management appears to be a requisite to improve effectiveness of protected areas, and participatory strategies, such as co-management, offer opportunities to improve governability while letting communities adapt to MPA needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]