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Climate change has considerably dominated science-policy dialogue, public debate, and subsequently environmental policies since the three "Rio Conventions" were born. This has led to practically independent courses of action of climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation actions, neglecting potential conflicts among outcomes and with missed opportunities for synergistic measures. Transformative governance principles have been proposed to overcome these limitations. Using a transformative governance lens, we use the case of the Norwegian "Climate Cure 2030" for the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector to, first, illustrate the mechanisms that have led to the choice of climate mitigation measures; second, to analyze the potential consequences of these measures on biodiversity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; and, third, to evaluate alternative measures with potential positive outcomes for biodiversity and GHG emissions/removals. We point to some mechanisms that could support the implementation of these positive actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines Taiwan's ecological footprint (EF) and its Overshoot Day from 2000 to 2018. The latest EF calculation method is used to determine the conversion rates and equivalent factors of bioproductive lands in each year to establish a database of Taiwan's EF in that period. The results reveal that Taiwan's EF was 7.69 gha/person in 2000, dropping steadily to 6.46 gha/person in 2018. Taiwan's carbon footprint accounted for about 61% of Taiwan's total EF, slightly higher than the world average (60%). The carbon footprint as a proportion of the total EF has been increasing annually. This study adopts social communication tools, such as the overshoot day and the earth clock, to promote sustainable development goals and climate change policy initiatives. Global Footprint Network (GFN) updates the overshoot day of each country in its database yearly, based on each country's EF and biocapacity. Since Taiwan is not included in GFN, this study adopts the same method and finds out that Taiwan's Overshoot Day in 2018 was March 14th, meaning that on March 14th, 2018, Taiwan exhausted all of the biological resources that its bioproductive lands can regenerate in the year. If the global population lived like Taiwanese, four Earths would be required to provide the resources used. This result not only reflects the consumption of natural resources in Taiwan, but also indicates that Taiwan should focus on sustainable development and reduce that consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on policy dynamics has long argued for a better conceptualization and measurement of the dependent variable ("policy"), but this fundamental point has often been neglected in the policy feedback literature. In this paper, we explore how far disaggregating policy into different elements (policy instruments, objectives, and settings) addresses this gap. We do so by examining the world's largest market-based climate policy instrument—emissions trading in the European Union—and reveal a number of valuable new insights. First, even if positive policy feedback locks in a policy instrument, actor contestation does not disappear, but narrows down to the more detailed level of policy settings. Second, feedback may operate differently at each policy level: the policy instrument and its settings may strengthen at the same time as support for broader objectives weakens. Finally, positive feedback may simultaneously strengthen opposing actors' support for multiple policy elements, leading to a form of "policy stability by stalemate." These findings highlight the need for a new, interdisciplinary phase of policy feedback research that more fully disaggregates the dependent variable across a wider range of policy areas and policy instrument types. Policy scientists are well equipped to contribute to and benefit from such a debate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gaps between public policy goals and the state of the environment are often significant. However, while goal failures in environmental governance are studied in a number of disciplines, the knowledge on the various causes behind delayed goal achievement is still incomplete. In this article we propose a new framework for analysis of delay mechanisms in science and policy, with the intention to provide a complementary lens for describing, analysing and counteracting delay in environmental governance. The framework is based on case-study findings from recent research focusing on goal-failures in policies for climate change, hazardous chemicals, biodiversity loss and eutrophication. It is also related to previous research on science and policy processes and their interactions. We exemplify the framework with two delay mechanisms that we consider particularly important to highlight—denial of science and decision thresholds. We call for further research in the field, for development of the framework, and not least for increased attention to delay mechanisms in environmental policy review and development on national as well as international levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid growth of human population and associated industrialisation creates strains on resources and climate. One way to understand the impact of human activity is to quantify the total environmental pressures by measuring the 'footprint'. Footprints account for the total direct and/or indirect effects of a product or a consumption activity, which may be related to e.g. carbon, water or land use, and can be seen as a proxy for environmental responsibility. Footprints shape climate and resource debates, especially concerning environmental strategies. However, in general, footprints hold a dichotomous producer–consumer perspective that is not unanimously accepted. In addition, the current footprinting system transmits a simplistic message about environmental responsibility that taints the justice debate and jeopardises the validity of policies based on them. Consequently, it is crucial to question who is (and should be) accountable for adverse environmental effects. It is also critical to investigate how the methodological characteristics of footprints shape and affect the efficacy of policies on climate and natural resources. This article examines these challenges, focusing on negative justice and policy implications resulting from assigning environmental responsibility to a sole agent. The article proposes, and morally justifies, the development of a footprinting method that includes justice parameters in an attempt to render fair results that are more meaningful for environmental action. The second objective is to establish the potential of this new framework to promote environmental responsibility and justice while facilitating policymaking. The suggested justice elements aim at turning footprints into a concrete environmental policy instrument framed under the value of environmental fairness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The achievement of international goals and national commitments related to forest conservation and management, climate change, and sustainable development requires credible, accurate, and reliable monitoring of stocks and changes in forest biomass and carbon. Most prominently, the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals in particular require data on biomass to monitor progress. Unprecedented opportunities to provide forest biomass data are created by a series of upcoming space-based missions, many of which provide open data targeted at large areas and better spatial resolution biomass monitoring than has previously been achieved. We assess various policy needs for biomass data and recommend a long-term collaborative effort among forest biomass data producers and users to meet these needs. A gap remains, however, between what can be achieved in the research domain and what is required to support policy making and meet reporting requirements. There is no single biomass dataset that serves all users in terms of definition and type of biomass measurement, geographic area, and uncertainty requirements, and whether there is need for the most recent up-to-date biomass estimate or a long-term biomass trend. The research and user communities should embrace the potential strength of the multitude of upcoming missions in combination to provide for these varying needs and to ensure continuity for long-term data provision which one-off research missions cannot provide. International coordination bodies such as Global Forest Observations Initiative (GFOI), Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS), and Global Observation of Forest Cover and Land Dynamics (GOFC‐GOLD) will be integral in addressing these issues in a way that fulfils these needs in a timely fashion. Further coordination work should particularly look into how space-based data can be better linked with field reference data sources such as forest plot networks, and there is also a need to ensure that reference data cover a range of forest types, management regimes, and disturbance regimes worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In spite of growing evidence of non-governmental organizations' (NGOs) active participation in both bottom-up and top-down climate change policy negotiations and implementation, a research effort that focuses on the former barely exists. Grounded within the qualitative research approach, this paper contributes to the emerging climate policy literature by drawing on experiences from three purposefully selected non-state actors' adaptation program in Ghana. The paper observes that through tripartite mechanisms—climate advocacy, direct climate service provision and local empowerment, NGOs significantly play a complementary role in building local adaptive capacities, especially among people who are already living at or close to the margins of survival. The paper again found that NGOs tacitly explore four interrelated "social tactics" (rulemaking, alliance brokerage, resource brokerage, and framing) to gain the cooperation of local actors for the implementation of adaptation interventions. In order to improve the performance and sustainability of adaptation interventions, the paper puts forward that NGOs should, among other things, harmonize their interventions to resonate with local interest and identity and also nurture capable project caretakers before community exit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the interaction of different policies used to control two types of agricultural pollution. Pollution control policy is efficient when both pollution types are controlled by taxes, although a tax increase on one type of pollution can increase the quantity of another type of pollution if farm inputs are substitutes. However, if one of the pollutions is controlled by a local emissions trading scheme, and another pollution type is taxed, then the pollution type which is taxed becomes less responsive to a change in its own tax levels. This policy scenario results in inefficient levels of environmental pollution outcomes unless the cap for the local emissions trading scheme is constantly being shifted in response to the tax. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The requirement of bottom-up action from all the countries to deal with climate change makes it necessary to analyze the factors influencing policy adoption. This article contributes to the policy literature by shedding light on the conditions, which incentivize countries to adopt more climate mitigation policies. The theoretical argument builds on the integrated approaches to study policy diffusion, which include both internal and external determinants as explanations for the adoption of policies. While previous applications typically operationalize the latter by regional proximity, this study highlights the added value of network dependencies capturing political and cooperative interactions across countries. The article finds that the adoption of climate policies is a matter of social influence. Countries are more likely to adopt policies if they cooperate with countries that have adopted more climate policies and are in a similar structural position to countries that are active in climate protection. This article not only is an important theoretical contribution to the policy literature but also enriches our methodological and empirical understanding of climate policy diffusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effectively addressing environmental challenges such as climate change will require adopting policy measures that have some impact on collective human behavior. The present research examined attitudes toward different environmental policies, specifically focusing on the role of perceived justice. Justice was measured in two ways: as an assessment of the fairness of a particular policy and as a general tendency to endorse statements related to environmental justice. Because justice judgments can be context specific, policies were presented in four conditions, in a 2 × 2 design manipulating the type of impact described, ecological or societal, and the level of focus, individual or collective. The roles of political ideology and environmentalism were also investigated. Results from an online sample of 162 US residents showed that non-coercive policies, overall, were rated as more acceptable. Environmental justice statements were strongly endorsed, and justice in both its specific and general forms was a determinant of policy acceptance. In particular, ratings of the fairness of specific policies were a stronger determinant of acceptability than perceived effectiveness of the policy. Type of impact had little effect, but policies tended to be rated as more acceptable when they were framed in terms of the collective rather than the individual. Although a liberal ideology was associated with acceptance of environmental policies in general and with endorsement of environmental justice, controlling for endorsement of environmental justice eliminated the effect of political ideology in most, but not all, cases. Implications for policy support are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite successful examples of multilevel government leadership on climate change policy, many local officials still face a variety of barriers, including low public support, low resources, and political division. But perhaps most significant is lack of public discussion about climate change. We propose deliberative framing as a strategy to open the silence, bridge political division, identify common and divergent interests and values, and thereby devise collective responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This essay discusses the concept of usefulness of research for climate change adaptation. Based on prior research and stakeholder interactions with policymakers and practitioners in the Nordic countries, we contend that critical issues related to the usefulness of adaptation research seem less associated with content (i.e. research outputs), but rather centre around the efforts made to design and communicate research, that is, to put research at the service of society and make the case for adaptation on the political agenda. This, we argue, to some extent mirrors the situation and political context in the Nordic countries, where adaptation in many locations still is an issue in its infancy, not firmly established on the political agendas, and where working procedures are not yet institutionally settled. In this context, science is considered and sometimes used as a discursive tool to make the case for adaptation. Based on the calls for research that inspires, raises hope and helps to raise the issue of adaptation on the political agendas, we elaborate the role of honest issue advocates for researchers in the field of adaptation science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a model for the distribution of the Global Carbon Budget between the countries of the world is presented. The model is based on the criteria of equity while also taking into account the different historical responsibilities. The Global Carbon Budget corresponds to the quantity of carbon dioxide emissions that can still be released into the atmosphere while maintaining the increase in the average earth surface temperature below 2 °C, and it is therefore compatible with the long-term objective defined in the Paris Agreement. The results of applying the model are shown both for the 15 emitters that currently top the ranking for world emissions as well as for the other countries, which are grouped together in three main groups: Other African, Other Latin American and Caribbean, and the Rest of the World. Mitigation curves compatible with the carbon budget allocated to the different countries are presented. When comparing each emitter’s historical emissions for the period 1971-2010 with the proposed distribution for the period 2011-2050 obtained using the model, it can be seen that developed countries must face the future with a greatly reduced carbon budget, whereas developing countries can make use of a carbon budget that is higher than their cumulative historical emissions. Finally, there is a discussion about how a model with these characteristics could be useful when implementing the Paris Agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective communication of risks involved in the climate change discussion is crucial and despite ambitious protection policies, the possibility of irreversible consequences actually occurring can only be diminished but never ruled out completely. We present a laboratory experiment that studies how residual risk of failure of climate change policies affects willingness to contribute to such policies. Despite prevailing views on people’s risk aversion, we found that contributions were higher at least in the final part of treatments including a residual risk. We interpret this as the product of a psychological process where residual risk puts participants into an ”alarm mode,” keeping their contributions high. We discuss the broad practical implications this might have on the real-world communication of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities in the USA engage in action on climate change, even as the federal government remains resistant to comprehensive climate policy. While experts generally agree that local level adaptation and mitigation policies are critical to avoiding the worst climate impacts, the degree to which cities communicate climate change issues to their constituents has yet to be fully explored. In this article, we evaluate how US cities communicate climate change-related issues, problems, and policies. We use a computer-assisted approach to evaluate climate change efforts by cities by examining the full text of press releases of 82 large cities in the USA. We first identify who discusses climate change, finding that many large cities in the USA address climate change in their public communication. Second, we examine the content of these discussions. Many cities discuss weather-related concerns in conjunction with broad collaborative efforts to address global warming, while city-based policy discussions focus more on energy and transportation efforts. Third, we evaluate the local factors associated with these discussions. We find that the city’s climate vulnerability is particularly influential in shaping the level and timing of climatic communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper distinguishes between bridging and bonding social capital to assess their roles for individual farmers’ adaptation strategies taken through technology adoption. Based on primary data collected in Langcang River (LCR) basin area in southwestern China, the paper finds: (1) adaptation measures have been widely taken by surveyed households, but non-infrastructure-based measures are more prevalent than infrastructure-based measures and (2) surveyed households have strong social capital while having weak bridging social capital. Their bonding social capital has significantly positive relationship with their adaptation decisions, but bridging social capital does not have such statistically significant relationship. It recommends that the governments contemplate carefully how to help the poor to get a good combination of bonding and bridging social capital when designing policies to help the rural poor to improve their long-term adaptive capacity and achieve sustainable rural development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing on Graeme’s published and unpublished work, as well as his long-term collaborations with two of us, we identify strands of thought that Graeme kept returning to and refining over the course of his career. We trace the evolution of four key points that he often reiterated: (1) The migration-environment relationship is complex and oversimplified; (2) Migration is both a consequence and a cause of environmental change; (3) Migration is just one possible response to environmental change; and (4) Displacement is just one type of migration response. We briefly map his impact on environmental migration scholarship and policy by revealing how key publications have been used in different contexts to shape theory and practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Misperceptions of the scientific consensus on climate change are an important problem in environmental policy. These misperceptions stem from a combination of ideological polarization and statements from prominent politicians who endorse information contradicting or misrepresenting the scientific consensus on climate change. Our study tests a source credibility theory of correction using different partisan sources of information in a survey experiment. We find that corrections from Republicans speaking against their partisan interest are most likely to persuade respondents to acknowledge and agree with the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change. The extent of these effects vary by the partisanship of the recipient. Our results suggest that the partisan gap on climate change can be reduced by highlighting the views of elite Republicans who acknowledge the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This case study analyses a ban on the use of fire in a district of West-Kalimantan in response to the 2015 Southeast Asian Haze crisis. Based on stakeholder interviews and participant observation, I address the dilemmas encountered at the district and village level as a result of transnational environmental politics. A stark example of a wider tendency for policies to restrict swidden agriculture, the case study provides insight into the persistence of swidden. Contradictions between different stakeholders’ experiences and understandings of local human ecology and haze politics ultimately rendered the ban ineffective. Future efforts at regulating fire in smallholder agriculture would therefore benefit from a clearer understanding of the relationships between fire, subsistence, and haze. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider the incentives of a single firm to invest in a cleaner technology under quotas and emission taxation. We assume asymmetric information about the firm's cost of employing the new technology. Policy is set either before the firm invests (commitment) or after (time consistency). Contrary to the conventional wisdom, we find that with commitment (time consistency), quotas give higher (lower) investment incentives than taxes. With quotas (taxes), commitment generally leads to higher (lower) welfare than time consistency. Under commitment with quadratic abatement costs and environmental damages, a modified Weitzman rule applies and quotas usually lead to higher welfare than taxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Great Lakes region is an important ecological asset for the United States, yet studies show that several environmental risks threaten its viability. As a result, it is important to respond to these risks with effective policies. When and how policy is implemented often depends on public opinion and perceptions; yet, we understand little about how individuals from the Great Lakes region construct opinions about the threats facing the lakes. We seek to understand how individuals from the state of Michigan form opinions on three risks to the lakes: invasive Asian carp, climate change, and offshore drilling. To do this, we evaluate the utility of two dominant models of environmental opinion formation: trust and deference to scientific authority, and partisan bias and motivated reasoning. We find that when issues have been politicized, opinion is greatly influenced by political factors like partisanship but that trust and deference as well as underlying environmental attitudes play a more important role for issues that have not been politicized. We discuss the implications of these findings in terms of policy and communication in Michigan, arguing that if we want Michiganders to support policy consistent with science, they must view risk in ways that are consistent with scientific consensus. For that to happen, advocates and policy makers must focus on reducing the political rhetoric around these threats, developing communication that taps into underlying trust and deference to science, and using underlying attitudes about the role of government in environmental protection to promote environmental policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is limited knowledge on institutional factors constraining and enabling climate change adaptation in Arctic regions, or the overall readiness of governing bodies and communities to develop, implement, and promote adaptation. This paper examines the preparedness of different levels of government to adapt in the Canadian Arctic territory of Nunavut, drawing upon semi-structured interviews with government personnel and organizations involved in adaptation. In the Government of Nunavut, there have been notable developments around adaptation planning and examples of adaptation champions, but readiness for adaptation is challenged by a number of factors including the existence of pressing socio-economic problems, and institutional and governmental barriers. Federally, there is evidence of high-level leadership on adaptation, the creation of adaptation programs, and allocation of funds for adaptation, although the focus has been mostly on researching adaptation options as opposed to supporting actual actions or policy change. The 2016 Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change, and increasing emphasis on climate change federally and in the Government of Nunavut, offer opportunities for advancing adaptation, but concrete steps are needed to ensure readiness is enhanced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To what extent citizens are willing not only to support ambitious climate policy but also willing to pay for such policy remains subject to debate. Our analysis addresses three issues in this regard: whether, as is widely assumed but not empirically established, willingness to support (WTS) is higher than willingness to pay (WTP); whether the determinants of the two are similar; and what accounts for within-subject similarity between WTS and WTP. We address these issues based on data from an original nationally representative survey ( N = 2500) on forest conservation in Brazil, arguably the key climate policy issue in the country. The findings reveal that WTP is much lower than WTS. The determinants differ to some extent as well, regarding the effects of age, gender, and trust in government. The analysis also provides insights into factors influencing how much WTS and WTP line up within individuals, with respect to age, education, political ideology, salience of the deforestation issue, and trust in government. Our findings provide a more nuanced picture of how strong public support for climate change policy is and a starting point for more targeted climate policy communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the current topical problems is the prediction of climate change and mitigation of its consequences. All-sided analysis of ecological, economic, and social aspects of climate issues relies on interdisciplinary assessment models. This article adapts the MERGE optimization model to the current state of the world economy and introduces into the model a new component that implements a simplified procedure of 'green' GDP calculation ('green' GDP, or GGDP, provides information about the efficiency of use of environmental resources). The objective of our numerical simulations is to tests the consequences of Russia's hypothetical participation in the program for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to analyze the environmental indicators of Russia's GDP. The input data are mainly provided by the project of scenario conditions and main macroeconomic parameters for the forecasting of socio-economic development in Russia in the near future implemented by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. The calculations reveal the existence of reserves for Russia's 'painless' participation in environment-preserving initiatives that call for not exceeding the 1990 emission level in 2020-2025. At the same time, increasing the environmental efficiency of Russia's GDP is a relevant task that requires immediate attention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precautionary Principles are often said to be appropriate for decision-making in contexts of uncertainty such as climate policy. Contexts of uncertainty are contrasted to contexts of risk depending on whether we have probabilities or not. Against this view, I argue that the risk-uncertainty distinction is practically irrelevant. I start by noting that the history of the distinction between risk and uncertainty is more varied than is sometimes assumed. In order to examine the distinction, I unpack the idea of having probabilities, in particular by distinguishing three interpretations of probability: objective, epistemic, and subjective probability. I then claim that if we are concerned with whether we have probabilities at all-regardless of how low their epistemic credentials are-then we almost always have probabilities for policy-making. The reason is that subjective and epistemic probability are the relevant interpretations of probability and we almost always have subjective and epistemic probabilities. In contrast, if we are only concerned with probabilities that have sufficiently high epistemic credentials, then we obviously do not always have probabilities. Climate policy, for example, would then be a case of decision-making under uncertainty. But, so I argue, we should not dismiss probabilities with low epistemic credentials. Rather, when they are the best available probabilities our decision principles should make use of them. And, since they are almost always available, the risk-uncertainty distinction remains irrelevant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change presents a challenge to land management agencies tasked with managing landscapes to protect natural resources and provide key goods and services in the face of ecological change, complexity, and uncertainty. Land management agencies, like the U.S. Forest Service, have developed multi-faceted strategies that utilize concepts like resilience and ecological integrity to guide adaptation. To address an extant research need, we conducted a qualitative case study, consisting of interviews with Forest Service staff in the Rocky Mountain Region, to explore how local federal land managers approach adaptation. Our goals were to understand what impacts managers are finding salient, perceptions of current agency strategies, and aspects of policy and practice that support effective adaptation planning. Interview participants anticipate impacts to disturbance regimes, wildlife species, and human uses. Participants intend to draw on agency policies, like its climate change scorecard and its land management planning regulations. However, the participants note that ambiguous concepts, uncertainty, and institutional variables make adaptation planning challenging in practice. A major theme apparent in the interviews was the use of partnerships with a range of other entities to address climate change. Ambiguity associated with concepts like resilience and ecological integrity allow them to function as boundary concepts; however, this ambiguity makes it challenging for managers to operationalize these concepts. These findings revealed that climate change adaptation is leading to and revealing the need for broader governance change. Moving forward, it will be crucial to adjust current governance structures to support long-term partnerships adept at translating scientific knowledge into actions and implementing complex boundary concepts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the failure of integrated, top-down bargaining strategies, analysts and diplomats have now turned to bottom-up methods such as 'building blocks' and 'climate clubs' to coordinate national climate change policies and to avoid persistent diplomatic deadlock. We agree that decomposition of the grand problem of climate change into smaller units is a crucial first step towards effective cooperation. But we argue that given the great uncertainty of the feasibility and costs of potential solutions, this bottom-up approach will only work if it is supported by institutions that promote joint exploration of possibilities by public and private actors along with the scaling up of successes. As politics precludes creating many of these institutions under the consensus-oriented decision rules of the UN system, engaged outsiders-including especially clubs or building blocks that can learn in the face of uncertainty-working in parallel with the UN diplomatic process will have to provide them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inadequate policy surveillance has undermined the effectiveness of multilateral climate agreements. To illustrate an alternative approach to transparency, I evaluate policy surveillance under the 2009 G-20 fossil fuel subsidies agreement. The Leaders of the Group of 20 nations tasked their energy and finance ministers to identify and phase-out fossil fuel subsidies. The G-20 leaders agreed to submit their subsidy reform strategies to peer review and to independent expert review conducted by international organizations. This process of developed and developing countries pledging to pursue the same policy objective, designing and publicizing implementation plans, and subjecting plans and performance to review by international organizations differs considerably from the historic approach under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. This paper draws lessons from the fossil fuel subsidies agreement for climate policy surveillance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is the consequence of a market failure, with private actors' incentives misaligned on a global scale and across multiple generations. Government policies to address climate change remain inadequate and the near term prospects are suspect. Analysts have turned their attention to finding alternative approaches to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Green clubs offer a potential institutional mechanism for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but to be effective they must be designed to fit their circumstances. An effective green club solves a market or quasi-market failure among firms and their stakeholders. Focusing on the market and nonmarket strategic imperatives for green clubs identifies several important considerations for improving the effectiveness of green clubs. Green clubs addressing climate change are more likely to be effective if they provide potential participants with a private benefit they are unable to achieve through other means and when the private benefits participants receive are tightly linked to the environmental benefits the club produces. Analyzing green clubs through this lens suggests that environmental certification club goods are more promising candidates than environmental technology club goods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we make two points about bottom-up approaches to climate policy. First, we argue that it is more productive to work with a small group of countries to establish the basis of a global climate regime than tackling the issue with all countries, as in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Secondly, we argue that negotiators should also work explicitly to encourage the development and deployment of clean technologies as a way to reduce future emissions, and suggest how this might be achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Paris Agreement cemented a new framework for global climate policy based on the voluntary and non-legally binding emission reduction actions by both developed and developing countries. The building blocks strategy for climate action discussed in this Special Issue is well adapted to and strongly complements this new structure. Building blocks focus on multiple transnational mechanisms for mobilizing a wide range of both public and private actors to take actions that reduce emissions by capturing incentives other than climate mitigation as such. The initial commitments by countries under the Paris Agreement are insufficient to meet the level of action required to stabilize the global climate system at a safe level. As such, new voluntary action by public and private actors will be required. The building blocks strategy, and the examples presented in this Special Issue, offers answers to the question of how to generate and design smaller-scale initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A central concern in policy studies is understanding how multiple, contending groups in society interact, deliberate, and forge agreements over policy issues. Often, public discourse turns from engagement into impasse, as in the fractured politics of climate policy in the USA. Existing theories are unclear about how such an 'adversarial turn' develops. We theorize that an important aspect of the adversarial turn is the evolution of a group's narrative into what can be understood as an ideology, the formation of which is observable through certain textual-linguistic properties. Analysis 'of' these narrative properties elucidates the role of narrative in fostering (1) coalescence around a group ideology, and (2) group isolation and isolation of ideological coalitions from others' influence. By examining a climate skeptical narrative, we demonstrate how to analyze ideological properties of narrative, and illustrate the role of ideological narratives in galvanizing and, subsequently, isolating groups in society. We end the piece with a reflection on further issues suggested by the narrative analysis, such as the possibility that climate skepticism is founded upon a more 'genetic' meta-narrative that has roots in social issues far removed from climate, which means efforts at better communicating climate change science may not suffice to support action on climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is one of the most compelling challenges for science communication today. Societal reforms are necessary to reduce the risks posed by a changing climate, yet many people fail to recognize climate change as a serious issue. Unfortunately, the accumulation of scientific data, in itself, has failed to compel the general public on the urgent need for pro-environmental policy action. We argue that certain metaphors for the human-environment relationship can lead people to adopt a more nuanced and responsible conception of their place in the natural world. In two studies, we tested properties of multiple metaphors with the general public (study 1) and experts on climate change (study 2). The metaphor 'the earth is our home' resonated with climate experts as well as diverse subpopulations of the general public, including conservatives and climate-change deniers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The landmark agreement recently negotiated in Paris represents an ambitious plan to combat climate change. Nevertheless, countries' current climate pledges are insufficient to achieve the agreement's goal of keeping global mean temperature rise 'well below' 2 C. It is apparent that climate negotiators need to be equipped with additional strategies for fostering cooperation if a climate catastrophe is to be averted. We review the results arising from an emerging literature in which the problem of avoiding dangerous climate change has been simulated using cooperation experiments in which individuals play a game requiring collective action to avert a catastrophe. This literature has uncovered five key variables that influence the likelihood of avoiding disaster: (1) the perceived risk of collective failure, (2) inequalities in historical responsibility, wealth, and risk exposure, (3) uncertainty surrounding the threshold for catastrophe, (4) intergenerational discounting, and (5) the prospect of reward or punishment based on reputation. Along with the results of a recent experimental assessment of the key instruments of the Paris Agreement, we consider how knowledge of the effects of these variables might be harnessed by climate negotiators to improve the prospects of reaching a solution to global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adverse climatic conditions may differentially drive human migration patterns between rural and urban areas, with implications for changes in population composition and density, access to infrastructure and resources, and the delivery of essential goods and services. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this notion. In this study, we investigate the relationship between climate shocks and migration between rural and urban areas within Mexico. We combine individual records from the 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses ( n = 683,518) with high-resolution climate data from Terra Populus that are linked to census data at the municipality level ( n = 2321). We measure climate shocks as monthly deviation from a 30-year (1961-1990) long-term climate normal period, and uncover important nonlinearities using quadratic and cubic specifications. Satellite-based measures of urban extents allow us to classify migrant-sending and migrant-receiving municipalities as rural or urban to examine four internal migration patterns: rural-urban, rural-rural, urban-urban, and urban-rural. Among our key findings, results from multilevel models reveal that each additional drought month increases the odds of rural-urban migration by 3.6%. In contrast, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration is nonlinear. After a threshold of ~34 heat months is surpassed, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration becomes positive and progressively increases in strength. Policy and programmatic interventions may therefore reduce climate induced rural-urban migration in Mexico through rural climate change adaptation initiatives, while also assisting rural migrants in finding employment and housing in urban areas to offset population impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By adopting the Paris Agreement on climate change, the world community has agreed on global goals for climate policy. However, by relying on voluntary contributions and respecting 'national circumstances', it does not ensure efficient and equitable country policies. To derive guidelines for a fair burden sharing between countries, the paper applies welfare theory and combines it with the general equity principles. The procedure selects those 'national circumstances' which are suitable for internationally acceptable policies. The concept is then compared to policies formulated by purely selfish countries. A convergence process closing the gap between country contributions and the optimum international climate policy is developed. It is argued that equity-based signals can be a forceful means supporting this process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Locating terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon (C) will be critical to developing strategies that contribute to the climate change mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement. Here we present spatially resolved estimates of net C change across United States (US) forest lands between 2006 and 2010 and attribute them to natural and anthropogenic processes. Results: Forests in the conterminous US sequestered −460 ± 48 Tg C year, while C losses from disturbance averaged 191 ± 10 Tg C year. Combining estimates of net C losses and gains results in net carbon change of −269 ± 49 Tg C year. New forests gained −8 ± 1 Tg C year, while deforestation resulted in losses of 6 ± 1 Tg C year. Forest land remaining forest land lost 185 ± 10 Tg C year to various disturbances; these losses were compensated by net carbon gains of −452 ± 48 Tg C year. C loss in the southern US was highest (105 ± 6 Tg C year) with the highest fractional contributions from harvest (92%) and wind (5%). C loss in the western US (44 ± 3 Tg C year) was due predominantly to harvest (66%), fire (15%), and insect damage (13%). The northern US had the lowest C loss (41 ± 2 Tg C year) with the most significant proportional contributions from harvest (86%), insect damage (9%), and conversion (3%). Taken together, these disturbances reduced the estimated potential C sink of US forests by 42%. Conclusion: The framework presented here allows for the integration of ground and space observations to more fully inform US forest C policy and monitoring efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: It is essential that the human race limits the environmental damage created by our consumption. A realistic pathway to limiting consumption would be to transition to a system where materials are conserved and cycled through the economy as many times as possible and as slowly as possible, greatly reducing the greenhouse gas intensive processes of resource extraction, resource processing and waste management. Material flow analysis (MFA) is a method used to understand how materials are consumed within a nation. In this study, we attempt a MFA for Scotland which links carbon emissions to material consumption using data directly based on the mass of materials used in the Scottish economy. It is the first time such an analysis has been conducted for an economy in its entirety. Research aims: This study aims to create a detailed material flow account (MFA) for Scotland, compare the environmental impacts and possible policy implications of different future material consumption scenarios and consider two materials, steel and neodymium, in detail. Results: The model estimated that 11.4 Mg per capita of materials are consumed per year in Scotland, emitting 10.7 Mg COe per capita in the process, of which, 6.7 Mg COe per capita falls under territorial carbon accounting. Only the circular economy scenario for 2050 allowed for increases in living standards without increases in carbon emissions and material consumption. This result was mirrored in the steel and neodymium case studies-environmental impacts can be minimised by a national strategy that first reduces use, and then locally reuses materials. Conclusions: Material consumption accounts for a large proportion of the carbon emissions of Scotland. Strategic dematerialisation, particular of materials such as steel, could support future efforts to reduce environmental impact and meet climate change targets. However, policy makers should consider consumption carbon accounting boundaries, as well as territorial boundaries, if carbon savings are to be maximised. This is because imports and recyclate sent abroad can have significant effect on the carbon emissions from material consumption. We demonstrate that the more circular an economy is, the smaller the difference between global and territorial carbon emissions, and therefore that climate change targets based solely on territorial carbon emissions create perverse incentives. The study also found that there could be areas of economic development which are compatible with environmental aims, based around encouraging reprocessing activities in developed nations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of plants in global climate change discussions is usually considered only in terms of the albedo and sinks/sources of CO and other greenhouse gases. The main aim of this review article is to summarize the entire impact of vegetation on the climate change. It describes quantitatively the energy balance of vegetated surfaces and the effect of vegetation on the hydrological cycle. The distribution of solar energy in the landscape is dealt with in thermodynamic terms. The role of water and plants in the reduction of temperature gradients is emphasized. Papers dealing with the relationship between changes in the landscape cover and regional climates are reviewed, and the fundamental role of wetlands and forests in water cycling is outlined. Positive examples of restoration of dry landscapes, based on rainwater retention and the recovery of permanent vegetation, are described. It is recommended that the direct role of water and vegetation in cooling, reducing temperature and air pressure gradients should be included into all future recommendations for policymakers made by scientists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper updates the SCVI (Socio-Climatic Vulnerability Index) maps developed by Torres et al. () for Brazil, by using the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections and more recent 2010 social indicators data. The updated maps differ significantly from their earlier versions in two main ways. First, they show that heavily populated metropolitan areas - namely Belo Horizonte, Brasília, Salvador, Manaus, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo - and a large swath of land across the states of São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Bahia now have the highest SCVI values, that is, their populations are the most vulnerable to climate change in the country. Second, SCVI values for Northeast Brazil are considerably lower compared to the previous index version. An analysis of the causes of such difference reveals that changes in climate projections between CMIP3 and CMIP5 are responsible for most of the change between the different SCVI values and spatial distribution, while changes in social indicators have less influence, despite recent countrywide improvements in social indicators as a result of aggressive anti-poverty programs. These results raise the hypothesis that social reform alone may not be enough to decrease people's vulnerability to future climatic changes. Whereas the coarse spatial resolution and relatively simplistic formulation of the SCVI may limit how useful these maps are at informing decision-making at the local level, they can provide a valuable input for large-scale policies on climate change adaptation such as those of the Brazilian National Policy on Climate Change Adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing body of work aims to understand the impacts of climate change on agriculture as well as farmer's perceptions of climate change and their likeliness to adopt adapting and mitigating behaviors. Despite this, little work has considered how intention to adopt differs from actual adoption of climate change practices in agriculture. Applying the Theory of Planned Behavior we aim to assess whether different factors affect intended versus actual adoption of climate behaviors among farmers in New Zealand. Data were collected through mixed methods (37 interviews and a telephone survey of 490 farmers) in two regions of New Zealand 2010-2012. Through multiple regression models we test hypotheses related to the Theory of Planned Behavior around the role of attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived capacity in affecting intended and actual adoption. Results suggest that there are different drivers of intended and actual adoption of climate change practices. Climate change attitudes and belief is only associated with intended not actual adoption. We find no evidence that subjective norms (climate change policy support) significantly influence either intention or actual adoption. Only perceived capacity and self-efficacy were important predictors of both intended and actual adoption. These results suggest a disconnect between intended and actual behavior change and that using data about intention as a guiding factor for program and policy design may not be prudent. Furthermore, fostering perceived capacity and self-efficacy for individuals may be crucial for encouraging both intended and actual adoption of climate adapting and mitigating behaviors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the 2015 summit on global climate change in Paris, political action will (or will not) be taken to tackle the threats of the global climate crisis. Both social scientists as well as conservationists have come to the conclusion that human activity is one of the main reasons for climate change and nature degradation, and the main target of justice related mitigation and adaptation responses. This article puts human (in)activity into focus, and introduces a social identity perspective on environmental justice. Specifically, it shows how conservation scientists can draw from the idea of a common human identity (CHI). It delineates how the representation of a 'common human ingroup' could inform beliefs about environmental justice, which in turn should motivate individuals and groups to act in favor of the natural environment. The review highlights that social identification with all humans may represent a potential path to global environmental justice, and combines recent insights from social identity research with conservation behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regime shift often results in large, abrupt, and persistent changes in the provision of ecosystem services and can therefore have significant impacts on human wellbeing. Understanding regime shifts has profound implications for ecosystem recovery and management. China's coastal ecosystems have experienced substantial deterioration within the past decades, at a scale and speed the world has never seen before. Yet, information about this coastal ecosystem change from a dynamics perspective is quite limited. In this review, I synthesize existing information on coastal ecosystem regime shifts in China and discuss their interactions and cascading effects. The accumulation of regime shifts in China's coastal ecosystems suggests that the desired system resilience has been profoundly eroded, increasing the potential of abrupt shifts to undesirable states at a larger scale, especially given multiple escalating pressures. Policy and management strategies need to incorporate resilience approaches in order to cope with future challenges and avoid major losses in China's coastal ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over two centuries of economic growth have put undeniable pressure on the ecological systems that underpin human well-being. While it is agreed that these pressures are increasing, views divide on how they may be alleviated. Some suggest technological advances will automatically keep us from transgressing key environmental thresholds; others that policy reform can reconcile economic and ecological goals; while a third school argues that only a fundamental shift in societal values can keep human demands within the Earth's ecological limits. Here we use novel integrated analysis of the energy-water-food nexus, rural land use (including biodiversity), material flows and climate change to explore whether mounting ecological pressures in Australia can be reversed, while the population grows and living standards improve. We show that, in the right circumstances, economic and environmental outcomes can be decoupled. Although economic growth is strong across all scenarios, environmental performance varies widely: pressures are projected to more than double, stabilize or fall markedly by 2050. However, we find no evidence that decoupling will occur automatically. Nor do we find that a shift in societal values is required. Rather, extensions of current policies that mobilize technology and incentivize reduced pressure account for the majority of differences in environmental performance. Our results show that Australia can make great progress towards sustainable prosperity, if it chooses to do so. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transformation as an adaptive response to climate change opens a range of novel policy options. Used to describe responses that produce non-linear changes in systems or their host social and ecological environments, transformation also raises distinct ethical and procedural questions for decision-makers. Expanding adaptation to include transformation foregrounds questions of power and preference that have so far been underdeveloped in adaptation theory and practice. We build on David Harvey's notion of activity space to derive a framework and research agenda for climate change adaptation seen as a political decision-point and as an opportunity for transformation, incremental adjustment or resistance to change in development pathway. Decision-making is unpacked through the notion of the activity space into seven coevolving sites: the individual, technology, livelihoods, discourse, behaviour, the environment and institutions. The framework is tested against practitioner priorities to define an agenda that can make coherent advances in research and practice on climate change adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European steel producers need to increase energy efficiency and reduce CO emissions to meet requirements set by European policies. Robust indicators are needed to follow up these efforts. This bottom-up analysis of traditional energy and climate indicators is based on plant-level data from three Swedish steel producers with different product portfolios and production processes. It concludes that indicators based on both physical and economic production are interlinked with aspects both within and outside the company gates. Results estimated with partial least squares regression confirm that steel production has complex relationships with markets, societal context, and operational character of the industry. The study concludes that (i) physical indicators (based on crude steel production) may be useful at the process level, but not at the industry-wide level, (ii) the value added is not a reliable alternative since it cannot be properly estimated for companies belonging to larger international groups, and (iii) structural shifts may influence the results significantly and veil improvements made at the process level. Finally, harmonised system boundary definitions are vital for making indicators comparable between companies. The use of traditional indicators, as defined today, may lead to uninformed decisions at the company as well as policy levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Governments have struggled to successfully implement large-scale integrated policy approaches, often resulting in policy failure. However, there has been little investigation into why this is the case. This paper links the discourse on policy failure and integrated policy approaches and identifies what aspects of 'integration' cause failure. It argues that programme failure occurs in integrated policy approaches when there are unachievable goals or timelines, poor policy design and/or when the incorrect types of processes are selected. Policy process failure is particularly evident in an integrated policy's implementation where multi-sector and multi-level issues arise, whereas failure in the politics of integrated approaches is found in political gain and blame avoidance of key decision-makers. This framework is then applied to Australia's Oceans Policy demonstrating that it was unable to achieve its original objectives; the layering process of new policy and institutions on established silos was ineffective; and the new institutions did not have the integrative capacity required for successful implementation. The Australian experience reveals that an institutional model that can deal with multiple issues, jurisdictions and sectors holistically is essential if integrative capacity is to be achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We address first, the lack of documented indigenous knowledge of climate change in Nunavik, Quebec, regarding impacts on plants; and second, the frequent underutilization of indigenous knowledge in decision making and policy. Our study of three communities indicates that there are similarities and contrasts among and within different areas of Nunavik that point to both general and localized impacts of climate change on Arctic communities. General trends include changes in berry and mammal distribution. Local trends include lower snow abundance, changing wind patterns and varying levels of impacts on travel and traditional activities. To assess these patterns, we used a novel mixed methods approach combining a qualitative analysis followed by a quantitative study of resulting codes and relevant quotes from interviewees. We believe this methodology can provide important insights into translating traditional knowledge into quantitative evidence for environmental policy and decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The African Development Bank has called for $40 Billion USD per year over the coming decades to be provided to African countries to address development issues directly related to climate change. The current study addresses a key component of these issues, the effect of climate change on the road infrastructure of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia. The study incorporates a stressor-response approach to estimate the effects of projected precipitation, temperature, and flooding changes on the paved and unpaved road infrastructure of these countries. The paper highlights the result of running 425 climate scenarios for each road type and policy option from 2010 to 2050. Based on this broad analysis, it is estimated that the three southern African countries are facing a potential $596 million price tag based on median climate scenarios to maintain and repair roads as a result of damages directly related to temperature and precipitation changes from potential climate change through 2050. The challenge for policy makers is to determine the potential risk that a country is facing based on the uncertainties associated with the multiple aspects of climate change modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]