Search

This paper analyses the volatility transmission between European Global Systemically Important Banks (GSIBs) and implied stock market volatility. A Dynamic Conditional Correlation Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model is applied to determine the dynamic correlation between returns of Europe's GSIBs and the world's most prominent measure of market "fear", the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). The results identify a higher negative co-relationship between the VIX and GSIB returns during the COVID-19 period compared with the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), with one-day lagged changes in the VIX negatively Granger-causing bank returns. The asymmetric impact of changes in implied volatility is examined by quantile regressions, with the findings showing that in the lower quartile–where extreme negative bank returns are present–jumps in the VIX are highly significant. This effect is more pronounced during COVID-19 than during the GFC. Additional robustness analysis shows that these findings are consistent during the periods of the Swine Flu and Zika virus epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air transport has been identified as one of the primary means whereby COVID-19 spread throughout Europe during the early stages of the pandemic. In this paper we analyse two categories of methods – dynamic network markers (DNMs) and network analysis-based methods – as potential early warning signals for detecting and anticipating COVID-19 outbreaks in Europe on the basis of accuracy regarding the daily confirmed cases. The analysis was carried out from 15 February 2020, around two weeks before the first COVID-19 cases appeared in Europe, and 1 May 2020, approximately two weeks after all the air traffic in Europe had been shut down. Daily European COVID-19 information sourced from the World Health Organization was used, whereas air traffic data from Flightradar24 has been incorporated into the analyses by means of four alternative adjacency matrices. Some DNMs have been discarded since they output multiple time series, which makes it very difficult to interpret their results. The only DNM outputting a single time series does not emulate the COVID-19 trend: it does not detect all the main peaks, which means that peak heights do not match up with the increase in the number of infected people. However, many combinations of network analysis based methods and adjacency matrices output good results (with high accuracy and 20-day advance forecasts), with only minor differences from one to another. The number of edges and the network density methods are slightly better when dynamic flight frequency information is used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several recent studies suggest that the home advantage, that is, the benefit competitors accrue from performing in familiar surroundings, was—at least temporarily—reduced in games played without spectators due to the COVID-19 Pandemic. These games played without fans during the Pandemic have been dubbed 'ghost games'. However, the majority of the research to date focus on soccer and no contributions have been provided for indoor sports, where the effect of the support of the fans might have a stronger impact than in outdoor arenas. In this paper, we try to fill this gap by investigating the effect of ghost games in basketball with a special focus on the possible reduction of the home advantage due to the absence of spectators inside the arena. In particular, we test (i) for the reduction of the home advantage in basketball, (ii) whether such reduction tends to disappear over time, (iii) if the bookmakers promptly adapt to such structural change or whether mispricing was created on the betting market. The results from a large data set covering all seasons since 2004 for the ten most popular and followed basketball leagues in Europe show, on the one hand, an overall significant reduction of the home advantage of around 5% and no evidence that suggests that this effect has been reduced at as teams became more accustomed to playing without fans; on the other hand, bookmakers appear to have anticipated such effect and priced home win in basketball matches accordingly, thus avoiding creating mispricing on betting markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the role of large outbreaks on the persistence of Covid-19 over time. Using data from 650 European regions in 14 countries, I first show that winter school holidays in late February/early March 2020 (weeks 8, 9 and 10) led to large regional outbreaks of Covid-19 in the spring with the spread being 60% and up-to over 90% higher compared to regions with earlier school holidays. While the impact of these initial large outbreaks fades away over the summer months, it systematically reappears from the fall as regions with school holidays in weeks 8, 9 and 10 had 30–70% higher spread. This suggests that following a large outbreak, there is a strong element of underlying (latent) regional persistence of Covid-19. The strong degree of persistence highlights the long-term benefits of effective (initial) containment policies, as once a large outbreak has occurred, Covid-19 persists. This result emphasizes the need for vaccinations against Covid-19 in regions that have recently experienced large outbreaks but are well below herd-immunity, to avoid a new surge of cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the future of mining in Europe but in the framework of a global pandemic. We have analysed the various prognosis of global growth trends and the future of mining in Europe, on the basis of the known statistical data of what has happened so far. Several case studies are included, and a proposal of a strong EU reaction to really be successful in the plans designed when the Raw Material Initiative was planned is suggested. The incredible mining potential of the EU as well as its technological leadership is here presented to demonstrate that, if politically supported, these can bring back Europe to the leading role in mining it had in the past. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic is challenging the availability of hospital resources worldwide. The Young Group of the Italian Association of Nuclear Medicine (AIMN) developed the first international survey to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 in nuclear medicine (NM). The aim of this study was to perform a preliminary report of the ongoing survey. Methods: A questionnaire of thirty questions was prepared for all NM professionals addressing three main issues: (1) new scheduling praxes for NM diagnostic and therapeutic procedures, (2) assistance of patients with diagnosed or suspected COVID-19, and (3) prevention of COVID-19 spreading in the departments. An invitation to the survey was sent to the corresponding authors of NM scientific papers indexed in SCOPUS in 2019. Personal data were analysed per individual responder. Organisation data were evaluated per single department. Results: Two-hundred and ninety-six individual responders from 220 departments were evaluated. Most of the responders were from Europe (199/296, 67%). Approximately, all departments already changed their scheduling praxes due to the pandemic (213/220, 97%). In most departments, scheduled diagnostic and therapeutic procedures were allowed but quantitatively reduced (112/220, 51%). A significant reduction of diagnostic and therapeutic procedures (more than 20%) affected 198/220 (90%) and 158/220 (72%) departments, respectively. Incidental COVID-19 signs in NM exams occurred in 106/220 departments (48%). Few departments were closed or shifted to assist patients with COVID-19 (36/220, 16%). Most of the responders thought that pandemic would not permanently change the work of NM departments in the future (189/296, 64%). Conclusions: According to this preliminary report of the first international survey, COVID-19 heavily impacted NM departments and professionals. New praxes for NM procedures, assistance, and prevention of COVID-19 have been applied during the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]