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The geological activity in Sichuan and Yunnan of China is intense, and large earthquakes such as the Tonghai earthquake in 1970 have caused huge casualties and economic losses. Therefore, it is significant to reduce the long-period earthquake damage of dams and high-rise buildings to reproduce the near-fault long-period ground motion characteristics of the Tonghai earthquake. In this paper, the finite difference method is used to predict the long-period characteristics of the Tonghai Ms 7.8 earthquake. Considering the uncertainty of the initial fracture point, number of asperities, and slip angle, 18 seismic scenarios are established. The predicted results are verified by comparing intensity, attenuation relation and pulse probability distribution. At the same time, based on the velocity pulse recognition method, the pulse probability distribution of the near-field is obtained. We selected six seismic scenarios with high probability from 18 seismic scenarios. Our results show that the spatial distribution and pulse probability distribution of near-field simulated ground motion is significantly affected by the initial rupture positions. After the characteristics of the largest asperity on the fault are determined, the remaining asperities have limited influence on the spatial distribution of simulated ground motion. This study expands the application scope of the finite difference method, which can simulate the seismic intensity characteristics of destructive earthquakes in areas with few seismic records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports results of mathematical modeling applied to the stress and strain in epicentral zones before and after the large earthquakes that occurred on June 22, 2002 in the Qazvin Province, northwestern Iran (Mw = 6.4) and the Gujarat, India earthquake of January 26, 2001 (M = 6.9). The modeling relied on a method for calculating stress and strain in a blocky elastic isotropic heterogeneous medium disturbed by a set of faults that are due to an external tectonic stress field. The boundary conditions were specified based on geological and seismological data. It has been shown that the epicenters of large crustal earthquakes occur in zones of high stress concentration at the ends of tectonic faults. Rupture occurs when the relationship between acting tectonic stresses satisfies the requirement σyy/σxx >3, thus connecting zones of high stress. The evolution of the aftershock process is controlled by the stress drop caused by a new rupture, while the resulting aftershock clusters are in spatial correlation with the stress drop zone. The new rupture propagates in the direction of dominant tectonic fault orientation in the region. We show a relationship to exist between rupture length and the possible retrospectively predicted location and magnitude of the earthquake depending on the elastic energy buildup and its possible release under specified structural tectonic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A destructive earthquake, especially if it occurs in areas of high seismic risk, in the form of certain factors, has a significant impact on the environment, including biodiversity. These factors (earthquake effects) are determined by the strength of the earthquake (manifestations of intensity on the earth's surface), local conditions (geomorphological, geological structure, level of urbanization and seismic risk, etc.), disaster-zone recovery processes (fast and effective recovery, localization and prevention of secondary consequences, environmental protection, state opportunities and political decisions, etc.). It is clear that these three important basic conditions of effects are different in different seismic regions and countries, which means that the impact of an earthquake on the environment is different. To consider the features and factors of the impact of an earthquake on the environment, the 1988 Spitak earthquake—one of the most detailed and comprehensively studied earthquakes in the world—was taken as a test object. The main purpose of this article is to highlight in more detail and more fully the possible natural and human factors of the impact of a strong earthquake on the environment and predict the extent of these impacts. Thirty-six major earthquake factors affecting the environment have been identified, which are conditionally divided into three main groups according to the time of formation and genesis: (a) purely seismic, (b) secondary seismic, and (c) post seismic. The paper also attempts to assess possible changes in these factors depending on global warming and a decrease in precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nepal is a sensitive earthquake zone. On April 25, 2015, there was an Earthquake of 7.8 Mw. After that, more than 30 aftershocks of above 5 Mw occurred. One of the aftershocks was of 7.3 Mw which occurred on May 12. In this paper, the damages in the tunnel of the Melamchi water supply project due to this earthquake were assessed. Cracks were observed on the inside surface, wall, and crown of the tunnel. Distribution and characteristics of these seismic damages were investigated and summarised to assess potential influencing factors. The damages are categorized into the following patterns: lining cracks and spalling. Lining cracks are further divided into longitudinal cracks, transverse cracks, ring cracks, and inclined cracks. Influencing factors are discussed with respect to Earthquake parameters mainly being magnitude, depth and distance to epicenter. This paper presents the pattern of seismic damages occurred for different overburden depths and different rock types. Here, the analysis is done by observation and categorization of damages for different aspects of considered factors and there are some unusual results in damages for varying overburden depths. There were few unusual results as in the damage distribution for overburden depth and also for different rock types. The reason may be the occurrence of many considerable aftershocks and epicenter being very near, so the damages may have been accumulated after each shock. Also the distribution of rock types have influenced the damages. So one influencing factors may have its effects on the results while considering the other factor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is devoted to evaluating destructive earthquakes (magnitude >6) of Iran and determining properties of their source parameters. First of all, a database of documented earthquakes has been prepared via reliable references and causative faults of each event have been determined. Then, geometric parameters of each fault have been presented completely. Critical parameters such as Maximum Credible Rupture, MCR, and Maximum Credible Earthquake, MCE, have been compiled based on the geometrical parameters of the earthquake faults. The calculated parameters have been compared to the maximum earthquake and the surface rupture which have been recorded for the earthquake faults. Also, the distance between the epicenter of documented earthquake events and their causative faults has been calculated (the distance was less than 20 km for 90% of the data). Then, the distance between destructive earthquakes (with the magnitude more than 6) and the nearest active fault has been calculated. If the estimated distance is less than 20 km and the mechanism of the active fault and the event are reported the same, the active fault will be introduced as a probable causative fault of that earthquake. In the process, all of the available geological, tectonic, seismotectonic maps, aerial geophysical data as well as remote sensing images have been evaluated. Based on the quality and importance of earthquake data, the events have been classified into three categories: (1) the earthquakes which have their causative faults documented, (2) the events with magnitude higher than 7, and (3) the events with the magnitude between 6 and 7. For each category, related maps and tables have been compiled and presented. Some important faults and events have been also described throughout the paper. As mentioned in this paper, these faults are likely to be in high seismic regions with potential for large-magnitude events as they are long, deep and bound sectors of the margins characterized by different deformation and coupling rates on the plate interface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the results of modeling the stress–strain state of the epicentral zone of the strong crustal Hanshin–Awaji earthquake, which occurred in the area of Kobe (Japan) on January 17, 1995, with a magnitude M of 6.9. In this work the author's method for modelling and analyzing the stress–strain state of the epicentral zones of crustal earthquakes was used. The geological, tectonic, and seismological data for the earthquake region are used as input data and boundary conditions for modeling. In this work it is shown that the main rupture arising at the origin of the earthquake is generated in a zone of high stress intensity at a certain ratio of the main tectonic stresses and propagates through areas of anomalously high stress concentration, causing maximum displacements in these zones. The results provide new insights into the focal mechanism of an earthquake, aimed at predicting the location and magnitude of strong crustal earthquakes in earthquake-prone areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper begins with a critical assessment of the concept of macroseismic intensity, on which traditional scales, such as MSK and EMS, are based. The main shortcoming identified is the model's failure to consider the spectral features of ground motion. This omission may lead to erroneous seismic zonation, as shown in the paper. As a result, the model is of little interest to engineers who must design and build safe structures while adopting economical solutions. The paper presents a way to radically improve this situation. The starting point for this approach was the experience of the destructive Vrancea earthquake of 1977.03.04, which made it clear that intensity appears to be different for structures having natural periods pertaining to different spectral domains. The solution proposed to the shortcomings of the traditional intensity concept is postulated on a system of analytical expressions, covering definitions of global intensities, of intensities related to oscillation frequency and of intensities related to a definite spectral band. The latter definition lies at the basis of a definition of discrete intensity spectra. Illustrative applications are presented, in relation to global intensities and to discrete intensity spectra. We then analyze an illustrative case in which the use of traditional macroseismic survey techniques led to erroneous seismic zonation. Finally, some conclusions and recommendations are presented. Based on the authors' long-term experience, we strongly recommend close interaction between seismologists and engineers in working groups and joint projects targeted on radical improvement of the basic concepts of seismic intensity and of specific analysis procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent seismic activity recorded in Jaén province in the south-east Iberian Peninsula has triggered great alarm among the people of the towns of Torreperogil and Sabiote despite the low magnitude of the events. The main objective of this paper is to examine why these low-magnitude events are responsible for such a high degree of concern in this area of low seismicity. Of all possible explanations, including directivity effects and local geology, we found that the site effect was the most important candidate for clarifying this phenomenon. An earthquake scenario was considered for the maximum 5.2 Mw shock that could occur in the event of the rupture of the identified responsible blind fault. In order to simulate the strong motion derived from such as extreme event, a stochastic finite-fault simulation was generated using the standard values of the different media parameters for the region and a stress drop of 130 bar, deduced from the simulation of the greatest shock of the sequence. In order to include the site effect, which was considered to be very important in this study, a local survey using refraction micro-tremor (ReMi) techniques was performed in both towns (at 33 and 35 sites in Torreperogil and Sabiote, respectively) to determine the Vs30 values. The site response results obtained were taken into account in the simulation process, and the results are shown on peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) contour maps for each town, with 200-500 cm/s as PGA extreme values. A map of intensities obtained from the PGV map is also shown; for the extreme event, macroseismic EMS98 intensities in the range of V-VII were obtained for those towns. The deterministic earthquake scenario developed here will be of great interest in planning civil defence responses in the event of an earthquake emergency and in regional development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract—The models based on the empirical data are proposed for probabilistic forecasting the characteristics of strong ground motions (SGM) from the earthquakes, potentially dangerous for the territory of the Republic of North Ossetia–Alania. We consider the models of SGM characteristics that are most important in the engineering practice (macroseismic intensities of ground shaking, peak ground accelerations, periods, durations, spectra, and strong-motion accelerograms) in the vicinity of the sources of earthquakes of different magnitudes and at different distances from the sources in application to the seismogeological conditions of the study region. The models are developed using both the conventional statistical analysis of a large amount of data on instrumental recording and macroseismic description of the strong and perceivable earthquakes in the Caucasus and other seismically active regions of the world and a new method for reconstructing the spectra of the strong earthquakes from their macroseismic field. The cross-comparison of the estimates obtained based on the proposed models with each other and with the estimates obtained by the other authors has shown that they are fairly realistic and reliable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Site effect is usually associated with local geological conditions, which increase or decrease the level of shaking compared with standard attenuation relations. We made an attempt to see in the macroseismic data of Italy some other effects, namely, hot/cold spots in the terminology of O lsen (in Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 90, 6B, 577-594, ), which are related to local fault geometry rather than to soil conditions. We give a list of towns and villages liable to amplify (+) or to reduce (-) the level of shaking in comparison with the nearby settlements. Relief and soil conditions cannot always account for the anomalous sites. Further, there are sites where both (+) and (-) effects are observed depending on the earthquake. The opposite effects can be generated by events from the same seismotectonic zone and along the same direction to the site. Anomalous sites may group themselves into clusters of different scales. All isolated anomalous patterns presented in this paper can be used in hazard analysis, in particular, for the modeling and testing of seismic effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the basis for a method for estimating the return period of large and medium earthquakes that is independent of current deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The two standard techniques of seismic hazard assessment-probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA)-suffer from limited knowledge of seismic prehistory. A further weakness of PSHA is its requirement of homogeneous seismic activity within a seismic zone. Moreover, PSHA and DSHA were developed for seismically active areas and, thus, cannot reliably be used in areas of medium and low activity. In this paper we propose the combined use of geodetic strain rate data and the seismic moment data set determined for past seismic events. This combination represents a new and independent approach to estimation of future seismic activity. Using a modified version of Kostrov's (Phys Solid Earth 1:23-40, ) equation and the catalogue of seismic moments, the minimum return period of the strongest earthquakes of a source area is estimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic hazard in terms of spectral acceleration ( SA) has been estimated for the first time in northern Algeria. For this purpose, we have used the spatially-smoothed seismicity approach. The present paper is intended to be a continuation of previous work in which we have evaluated the seismic hazard in terms of peak ground acceleration ( PGA) using the same methodology. To perform these evaluations, four complete and Poissonian seismic models have been used. One of them considers earthquakes with magnitudes above M S 6.5 in the last 300 years, that is, the most energetic seismicity in the region. Firstly, seismic hazard maps in terms of SA, at periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 sec, with 39.3% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, have been obtained. Therefore, uniform hazard spectra ( UHS) are computed and examined in detail for twelve of the most industrial and populated cities in northern Algeria. All the reported results in this study are for rock soil and 5% of damping. It is noteworthy that, in the seismic hazard maps as well as in the UHS plots, we observe maximum SA values in the central area of the Tell. The higher values are reached in the Chleff region (previously El Asnam), specifically around the location of the destructive earthquakes of September 9, 1954 ( M S 6.8), and October 10, 1980 ( M S 7.3). These maximum values, 0.4 g and 1.0 g, are associated with periods of about 0.2 and 0.3 sec for return periods of 100 and 475 years, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detailed and accurate historical earthquake disaster data are an important basis for understanding the characteristics of earthquake disaster losses and for conducting research on earthquake disaster prevention strategies and post-earthquake emergency rescue work. Due to different project scopes and discrepancies in data accuracy, the currently available databases may contain errors such as missing data or data with low accuracies. In this study, we developed the Mainland China Composite Earthquake causing Casualties Database (MCCEC-DAT), which contains 252 historical earthquake records that span from 1966 to 2021. The database contains earthquake attribute information (earthquake time, location, epicenter latitude and longitude, focal depth, epicentral intensity, etc.), loss information (number of deaths and injuries, building damage ratio, economic loss, cause of death, etc.), and socioeconomic data (population, population density, area of each zone of seismic intensity, mortality rate, etc.). This database also contains the lethality levels generated by this study. These levels are the result of the quantitative evaluation of the overall characteristic levels of the earthquake area. Furthermore, this metric permits the direct comparison of different spatial locations. Based on the results of the statistical analysis, this work shows that the distribution of historical earthquakes in mainland China has obvious spatial and temporal characteristics. Events are mainly distributed throughout the southwest region, and the magnitudes of those events are relatively diverse. The mortality rate is significantly correlated with the building damage ratio and the lethality level. The lethality level can not only facilitate an improved understanding of the comprehensive level of historical earthquake regions, but this metric also provides a quantitative foundation for the comparative analysis of earthquakes between different regions. Furthermore, the database can also provide a foundation for future research, such as research into assessing the loss from earthquake disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, significant variations in rate of moderate-large earthquake occurrence during the last two centuries at the north of Persia (Alborz, Azarbaijan, and Kopeh Dagh seismotectonic provinces) were chronically investigated. Depths of some historical and instrumental earthquakes were reasonably estimated using macroseismic data. Also, empirical relationships were developed between the maximum intensity and magnitude of the earthquakes in the north of Persia. Two centuries of earthquake data (M ≥5.0) reliably demonstrates that quite periods with durations of about a few years to two decades have happened and have been subsequently followed by active periods with durations of about 10 to 70 years. The time variation of seismic hazards (achieved by the macroseismic maximum intensity, I ≥IV) almost displays a similar behavior at the study area. According to both patterns of the time variations of seismicity and the seismic hazards, it may conclude that we are within a low rate of seismic period, and we may expect a higher rate of seismicity at the Alborz in the next decades. Finally, in both the Azarbaijan and Kopeh Dagh areas, we discovered considerable migrations of the seismicity from the east to the west. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The earthquakes have the most dominating societal and economic impact on the built environment. The earthquakes in an intraplate region are infrequent but often damaging. The uncontrolled urban growth in cities due to population explosion and migration makes it necessary to assess seismic hazards in an active region. It provides parameters for seismic safety and helps in disaster mitigation. The Kachchh Rift Basin (KRB) of western India is a seismically active intraplate region where many damaging earthquakes have occurred in the past (Mw 7.8 in 1819, Mw 7.6 in 2001). The KRB hosts many economic corridors and ports. Though the region has been put in a category with highest seismic hazard, the entire region is not prone to high hazards. The primary objective of the study is to integrate major attributes that influence seismic hazard on a GIS platform and prepare a multi-criteria-based hazard map by multi-criteria decision process named as analytical hierarchy process (AHP) developed by Saaty. In this study, the information about some of the attributes like peak ground acceleration (PGA), geology and geomorphology, and tsunami hazard is taken from published literature, whereas shear wave velocity to 30 m depth (Vs)30 and amplification factor were obtained through empirical relationships. The integration of these different attributes was performed, and weights were assigned depending on their contribution to the seismic hazard. The multi-criteria approach reveals that the southwestern part comprising of Kachchh mainland has a low hazard as compared to central and northern parts and almost 1 million people and around 0.18 million houses are exposed to moderate to high hazard. Large swaths of land are prone to liquefaction hazard. The corridor comprising of Bhuj, Bhachau and Rapar needs seismic microzonation. This macro level hazard map will be beneficial for the urban planners and government authorities to decide the areas, where seismic microzonation or site-specific studies are required that would help in mitigating earthquake disasters in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have conducted paleo- and archaeoseismological surveys in the Durankulak Eneolithic archaeological settlement in northeastern Bulgaria, identifying many earthquake-related deformations of different ages. The ubiquitous presence of counterfort walls added to damaged original (nearly north–south) walls on the eastern side provides evidence of the first significant earthquake in Durankulak that seems to have occurred during Middle to Late Eneolithic time (4650–4100 B.C.). This seismic event made the north–south walls tilt westward, so that the ancient residents had to build counterfort walls to prevent the original walls from collapsing. However, the upper excavations in the archaeological settlement show that the next, later, seismic deformation induced a tilting and collapse of remains of the original walls eastward, producing a gap of a few tens of centimeters between the original walls and the counterfort walls. Afterwards the settlement was abandoned. It may be surmised that the later earthquake was stronger than the earlier one, which left room for reconstruction work. The local seismic intensity of the earlier earthquake seems to have been at least Il ≥ VIII, while the later event had Il ≥ IX on the МSК-64 scale. Considering that the masonry of both walls, the original and the counterfort ones, is about the same age, the time interval between the two seismic events must have been short, one or two hundred years. Nevertheless, the epicenters of both of these earthquakes were to different directions from Durankulak. The seismic motion (compressive waves and shocks) went from the west during the first earthquake and from the east during the second. The rupture zone of the first seismic event was obviously related (1) to an earthquake-generating zone in continental Bulgaria situated west of the archaeological settlement in question, or (2) to the Intramoesian active fault that was responsible for the large earthquake of 1444. The rupture zone of the second seismic event was nearby, in the coastal part of the Black Sea; the responsible feature seems to have been the Shabla–Kaliakra seismogenic zone. Considerable seismic deformations were also identified in structures on the southern slope of the island in a dwelling dating back to the First Bulgarian Kingdom (the 9th century A.D.). This seismic event produced distortions in the walls (in map view), sigmoidal patterns, as well as fractures and rotations in the walls. The local seismic intensity due to this earthquake is supposed to be at least Il ≥ VIII. The rupture zone of a third seismic event was likely to be nearby, in the coastal part of the Black Sea, and the responsible feature must have been the Shabla–Kaliakra seismogenic zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the seismological, geodynamic, and seismotectonic data on the strongest series of earthquakes in 2009-2017 in Central Italy, which were collected by many researchers, mostly Italian, the tectonic position of these events is determined and the seismic history of the region over more than 2000 years of observations of seismic manifestations in Italy is traced in the context of the strong events of the beginning of the 21st century. The aftershock processes of these earthquakes are investigated and, as a result, the possibility of a series of strong aftershocks of the earthquake of October 30, 2016 (MW = 6.6) is predicted in advance of the actual occurrence of these events on January 18, 2017. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An accurate estimation of the applied load pattern is an essential component in each pushover procedure. Recently, a number of adaptive pushover methods have been proposed in which the effects of the higher modes as well as the progressive changes in the dynamic characteristics of structures are taken into account to compute the applied load pattern. The basic shortcoming of these advanced pushover methods is related to employing the quadratic modal combination rule, whereby the sign reversals of the modal load vectors are suppressed. In this study, an improved displacement-based adaptive pushover method is developed in which the applied load pattern is computed using the factor modal combination rule (FMC). In the proposed procedure, multiple load patterns, depending on the number of the modes considered, are determined in order to take into account the sign reversals of different modal load vectors. The accuracy of the proposed method is verified for seven moment resisting frame buildings of 3, 9 and 20 stories with regularity or vertically geometric and mass irregularities subjected to 60 earthquake ground motion records. The results showed that the proposed methodology is capable of reproducing the peak dynamic responses with very good accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic microzonation is one of the most important measures to mitigate earthquake hazards in urban areas. Because the ground motion varies significantly with the subsurface geology, it is needed for microzonation to account as much as possible for the local soil conditions. Noteworthy is that nonlinear deformation properties of soil play essential roles in amplification of strong ground motion. It is desired furthermore to focus on the expected damage extent in addition to the calculated maximum acceleration and/or velocity. The present study first developed a computer code for one-dimensional response analysis of ground that reasonably takes into account nonlinear dynamic soil properties. Second, correlations between the calculated ground motion and damage extent were obtained by examining seismic damages during the past earthquakes. By combining these two issues, seismic microzonation was carried out, and detailed damage distribution was assessed. The product of this study covers not only the damage caused by ground shaking but also liquefaction problem and lifeline damage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was performed for the Japanese islands and surrounding areas. Seismic hazard parameters characteristic of the seismic history of the regions were obtained. The probability of occurrence of a large M ≥ 7 earthquake within a 10- and 50-year period was also calculated. Regions of very high levels of hazard occur where the Pacific, Phillipine and Eurasian Plates meet. High probabilities of occurrence of a large M ≥ 7 earthquake within a 10- and 50-year period occur within the region where the Pacific Plate subducts with the Eurasian Plate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— The mapping of the seismic ground motion in Bucharest, due to the strong Vrancea earthquakes is carried out using a complex hybrid waveform modeling method which combines the modal summation technique, valid for laterally homogeneous anelastic media, with finite-differences technique, and optimizes the advantages of both methods. For recent earthquakes, it is possible to validate the modeling by comparing the synthetic seismograms with the records. We consider for our computations the frequency range from 0.05 to 1.0 Hz and control the synthetic signals against the accelerograms of the Magurele station, low-pass filtered with a cut-off frequency of 1.0 Hz of the 3 last major strong (Mw > 6) Vrancea earthquakes. Using the hybrid method with a double-couple seismic source approximation, scaled for the source dimensions and relatively simple regional (bedrock) and local structure models, we succeeded in reproducing the recorded ground motion in Bucharest at a satisfactory level for seismic engineering. Extending the modeling to the entire territory of the Bucharest area, we construct a new seismic microzonation map, where five different zones are identified by their characteristic response spectra. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]