Search

Recently, global epidemic models that use climatological factors have been proposed to explain influenza activities for both temperate and tropical regions. In this paper, these global models were extended by including interactions of climatological factors. This study was aimed to estimate the relative benefits of such interactions in explaining the global influenza epidemics. The effects of four climatological factors on laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were investigated, i.e., weekly temperature, precipitation, absolute humidity and relative humidity. It was found that countries in Europe and Australia have higher forecast skill, indicating the stronger relationship of influenza with climatological factors, than regions in other continents. The influenza activities of 47 (83%) countries can be explained with a closer match using multi-factor interactions along with original factors than only using the original factors. The temperate countries are characterized by the interaction of factors of temperature and absolute/relative humidity. In contrast, the interaction of factors of precipitation and absolute/relative humidity are dominant in tropical countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various human heat stress indices have been developed to relate atmospheric measures of extreme heat to human health impacts, but the usefulness of different indices across various health impacts and in different populations is poorly understood. This paper determines which heat stress indices best fit hospital admissions for sets of cardiovascular, respiratory, and renal diseases across five Australian cities. We hypothesized that the best indices would be largely dependent on location. We fit parent models to these counts in the summers (November-March) between 2001 and 2013 using negative binomial regression. We then added 15 heat stress indices to these models, ranking their goodness of fit using the Akaike information criterion. Admissions for each health outcome were nearly always higher in hot or humid conditions. Contrary to our hypothesis that location would determine the best-fitting heat stress index, we found that the best indices were related largely by health outcome of interest, rather than location as hypothesized. In particular, heatwave and temperature indices had the best fit to cardiovascular admissions, humidity indices had the best fit to respiratory admissions, and combined heat-humidity indices had the best fit to renal admissions. With a few exceptions, the results were similar across all five cities. The best-fitting heat stress indices appear to be useful across several Australian cities with differing climates, but they may have varying usefulness depending on the outcome of interest. These findings suggest that future research on heat and health impacts, and in particular hospital demand modeling, could better reflect reality if it avoided “all-cause” health outcomes and used heat stress indices appropriate to specific diseases and disease groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Murray dairy region produces approximately 1.85 billion litres of milk each year, representing about 20 % of Australia's total annual milk production. An ongoing production challenge in this region is the management of the impacts of heat stress during spring and summer. An increase in the frequency and severity of extreme temperature events due to climate change may result in additional heat stress and production losses. This paper assesses the changing nature of heat stress now, and into the future, using historical data and climate change projections for the region using the temperature humidity index (THI). Projected temperature and relative humidity changes from two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO MK3.5 and CCR-MIROC-H, have been used to calculate THI values for 2025 and 2050, and summarized as mean occurrence of, and mean length of consecutive high heat stress periods. The future climate scenarios explored show that by 2025 an additional 12-15 days (compared to 1971 to 2000 baseline data) of moderate to severe heat stress are likely across much of the study region. By 2050, larger increases in severity and occurrence of heat stress are likely (i.e. an additional 31-42 moderate to severe heat stress days compared with baseline data). This increasing trend will have a negative impact on milk production among dairy cattle in the region. The results from this study provide useful insights on the trends in THI in the region. Dairy farmers and the dairy industry could use these results to devise and prioritise adaptation options to deal with projected increases in heat stress frequency and severity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates convective boundary layer (CBL) budget methods as a tool for estimating regionally averaged sensible and latent heat fluxes for the study region used in OASIS (Observations at Several Interacting Scales). This is an agricultural region of mixed cropping and grazing extending about 100 km west of the town of Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia. The analysis proceeds in three stages: first, a simple one-dimensional model of the well-mixed layer (the CBL slab model), forced with measurements of the surface heat and evaporation fluxes, is evaluated by comparing measured and modelled CBL temperature, humidity and depths. A comparison of several entrainment schemes shows that a simple model, where the entrainment kinetic energy is parameterised as a fraction (α3) of the surface sensible heat flux, works well if α is set to 0.5. Second, the slab model is coupled to a Penman–Monteith model of surface evaporation to predict regional scale evaporation and thence heat fluxes. Finally, the integral CBL budget approach, which is an inverse method using the one-dimensional slab model, is used to infer regional heat and evaporation fluxes from measured time series of CBL temperature and humidity. We find that the simple CBL slab model works reasonably well for predicting CBL depth and very well for CBL temperature, especially if approximate estimates of subsidence velocity and warming due to advection are included. Regional sensible heat fluxes estimated from the integral CBL method match those measured, although the method is very sensitive to measurement errors. Measurement-model differences were larger for short integration times, because the well-mixed assumptions are violated at particular times of the day. The corollary is that `whole-day' (0530–1530 h) estimates are in reasonable agreement with measured values. Integral methods could not be used to infer the regional evaporation flux directly because CBL humidity profiles were complex and often not well mixed until mid-afternoon. We recommend that regional evaporation fluxes be predicted either from a coupled Penman–Monteith – CBL slab model, or inferred as a residual term from estimates of the regionally averaged available energy and sensible heat flux. Furthermore, we show that inferring fluxes via integral methods will always be difficult when the scalar concentrations have either a large surface source and free atmosphere sink (in the case of water vapour and methane), or a large surface sink and upper level source (in the case of CO2). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying reference evapotranspiration (ET) is essential in water resources management. Although, many methods have been developed with different level of accuracy, in this study, two new equations were developed and optimized for estimating ET using Honey-Bee Mating Optimization (HBMO) algorithm. The first eq. estimates ET from extraterrestrial radiation (R), relative humidity (RH) and mean daily temperature (T), while the second uses the same parameters except that mean daily temperatures is replaced with maximum daily air temperature (T). Both equations were developed using climatic data from eight weather stations in Western Australia and subsequently verified using data from ten sites across Australia. The estimated ET values from both equations versus the FAO56-Penman-Monteith have a coefficient of determination, R, of larger than 0.96. Moreover, the performance of six commonly used methods of estimating ET including Hargreaves-Samani, Thornthwaith, Hamon, Mc Guinness-Bordne, Irmak and Jensen-Haise were assessed and the Hargreaves-Samani method performed better than others. An attempt was made to calibrate the Hargreaves-Samani equation; however, its overall performance did not improved and the two newly proposed equations are suggested to be used in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]