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Landslide failure time prediction is considered a challenging issue in landslide research. A significant goal of landslide research is to provide scientific and accurate prediction methods. In this paper, the short-term forecasting of landslides (STFL) model is proposed by analyzing landslide deformation characteristics in a known evolution process. The landslides on the southern slope of the West open pit mine (SSWOPM) in Liaoning province, northeast China, and Huangci in Gansu province, northwest China, were selected as the study cases. After pre-processing, which include eliminating abnormal data (t test), adding missing data (cubic spline interpolation), and smoothing noisy data (Savitzky–Golay filters), the displacement data are assembled to serve as the model's input parameters. The parameters of STFL can be obtained through the Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) algorithm. Using the forecasting criterion, the time of failure of landslides can be predicted and determined. Forecasting results provide evidence that the STFL model can achieve an accurate prediction of landslide displacement (correlation coefficient R2 > 0.99). The forecasting results of the SSWOPM and Huangci landslides indicate that the forecasting failure time of the STFL model is March 10, 2014 and January 31, 1995, respectively, which are near the actual failure time compared with those obtained using the Verhulst model. This finding indicates that the new method has excellent reliability and accuracy in landslide prediction and a robust description of the landslide movement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Loesses are widely distributed all over the world, especially in China. Meanwhile, long-term agricultural irrigation and extreme climate changes have led to frequent geological disasters in the Heifangtai area of Lanzhou, Gansu, China. Of these, landslides are one of the most frequent types of disasters that are harmful to humans and the environment. A landslide is closely related to the lithology, structure, and groundwater of the site and consists of a combination of structure units divided by discontinuities, such as faults, joints, and fissures. Therefore, geological surveys, engineering drilling, and trenching are typically used to identify the stratum lithology, structure, and groundwater in order to visually display underground information within a limited depth range. However, these methods have disadvantages. In particular, geological surveys can only describe geological phenomena on the surface, while the cost of drilling and trenching may be high, along with the inefficiency of exploration. In this research, the integrated geophysical exploration method was used to analyze the hidden joints, cracks, and other discontinuities and geophysical features of the discontinuities. The results were verified by trench exploration, and large amounts of underground information were obtained, especially the spread and distribution of discontinuities in landslide areas. Such information can be effectively used for carrying out and providing meaningful experiences and lessons in future comprehensive geophysical processing and interpretations related to the prediction and evaluation of landslides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]