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Objectives: To identify subgroups of community-dwelling older adults and to assess their longitudinal associations with long-term osteoarthritis (OA) outcomes. Methods: 1046 older adults aged 50–80 years were studied. At baseline, body mass index (BMI), pedometer-measured ambulatory activity (AA), and Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) determined knee pain and information on comorbidities were obtained. Tibial cartilage volume and bone-marrow lesions (BMLs) were assessed using MRI at baseline and 10 years and total knee replacements (TKR) by data linkage to the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry. Latent class analysis was used to determine participant subgroups, considering baseline BMI, AA, pain and comorbidities, and linear mixed-effects or log-binomial models were used to assess the associations. Results: Three subgroups/classes were identified: subgroup 1 (43%): Normal/overweight participants with higher AA, lower pain and lower comorbidities; subgroup 2 (32%): Overweight participants with lower AA, mild pain and higher comorbidities; subgroup 3 (25%): Obese participants with lower AA, mild pain and higher comorbidities. Subgroup 3 had greater cartilage volume loss (β − 60.56 mm3, 95% CI − 105.91, − 15.21) and a higher risk of TKR (RR 3.19, 95% CI 1.75, 5.81), compared to subgroup 1. Subgroup 2 was not associated with cartilage volume change (β 13.06 mm3, 95% CI − 30.87, 57.00) or risk of TKR (RR 1.16, 95% CI 0.56, 2.36), compared to subgroup 1. Subgroup membership was not associated with worsening BMLs. Conclusions: Our findings suggest the existence of homogeneous subgroups of participants and support the utility of identifying patterns of characteristics/risk factors that may cluster together and using them to identify subgroups of people who may be at a higher risk of developing and/or progressing OA. Key Points • Complex interplay among characteristics/factors leads to conflicting evidence between ambulatory activity and knee osteoarthritis. • Distinct subgroups are identifiable based on ambulatory activity, body mass index, knee pain, and comorbidities. • Identifying subgroups can be used to determine those who are at risk of developing/progressing osteoarthritis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to describe the association of bone marrow lesions (BMLs) present on two different MRI sequences with clinical outcomes, cartilage defect progression, cartilage volume loss over 2.7 years, and total knee replacement (TKR) over 13.3 years. 394 participants (50-80 years) were assessed at baseline and 2.7 years. BML presence at baseline was scored on T1-weighted fat-suppressed 3D gradient-recalled acquisition (T1) and T2-weighted fat-suppressed 2D fast spin-echo (T2) sequences. Knee pain, function, and stiffness were assessed using WOMAC. Cartilage volume and defects were assessed using validated methods. Incident TKR was determined by data linkage. BMLs were mostly present on both MRI sequences (86%). BMLs present on T2, T1, and both sequences were associated with greater knee pain and functional limitation (odds ratio = 1.49 to 1.70; all p < 0.05). Longitudinally, BMLs present on T2, T1, and both sequences were associated with worsening knee pain (β = 1.12 to 1.37, respectively; p < 0.05) and worsening stiffness (β = 0.45 to 0.52, respectively; all p < 0.05) but not worsening functional limitation or total WOMAC. BMLs present on T2, T1, and both sequences predicted site-specific cartilage defect progression (relative risk = 1.22 to 4.63; all p < 0.05) except at the medial tibial and inferior patellar sites. Lateral tibial and superior patellar BMLs present on T2, T1, and both sequences predicted site-specific cartilage volume loss (β = - 174.77 to - 140.67; p < 0.05). BMLs present on T2, T1, and both sequences were strongly associated with incident TKR. BMLs can be assessed on either T2- or T1-weighted sequences with no clinical predictive advantage of either sequence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]