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Precipitation variability has been predicted to increase in a global warmer climate, and is expected to greatly affect plant growth, interspecies interactions, plant community composition, and other ecosystem processes. Although previous studies have investigated the effect of intra-annual rainfall variability on plant growth and ecosystem dynamics, the impacts of interannual rainfall variability remain understudied. This paper uses satellite data and develops a new mechanistic model to investigate the response of tree-grass composition to increasing interannual rainfall variability in arid to sub-humid ecosystems along the Kalahari Transect in Southern Africa. Both satellite data and model results show that increasing interannual rainfall fluctuations favor deep-rooted trees over shallow-rooted grasses in drier environments (that is, mean annual rainfall, MAP < 900-1000 mm) but favor grasses over trees in wetter environments (that is, MAP > 900-1000 mm). Trees have a competitive advantage over grasses in dry environments because their generally deeper root systems allow them to have exclusive access to the increased deep soil water resources expected to occur in wet years as a result of the stronger interannual rainfall fluctuations. In relatively wet environments, grasses are favored because of their high growth rate that allows them to take advantage of the window of opportunity existing in years with above average precipitation and thus increase fire-induced tree mortality. Thus, under increasing interannual rainfall fluctuations both direct effects on soil water availability and indirect effects mediated by tree-grass interactions and fire dynamics are expected to play an important role in determining changes in plant community composition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Global climate change may greatly alter the structure and stability of drylands, creating an urgent need to recover their functions and services. Biological soil crust (biocrust), an interface between the soil and atmosphere, plays a crucial role in ecohydrological processes, and thus in influencing the restoration dynamics of dryland ecosystems. Previous studies have generally investigated the influences of biocrust on ecohydrological processes as an exogenous factor. However, it remains unclear how biocrusts, as an integral part of many ecosystems (i.e., as a system state variable), will change under global climate change.Methods: This study developed a new ecohydrological model with biocrust cover as a system state variable, and explored the response of dryland ecosystems to altered rainfall regimes.Results: Biocrust cover responded with an inverted U-shaped curve relationship to increasing annual rainfall and linearly to increasing rainfall frequency. Vascular plant (grass and shrub) cover showed an increasing trend with increasing annual rainfall and a decreasing trend to increasing rainfall frequency. Therefore, biocrust usually dominated over vascular plants (i.e., high biocrust cover and low vascular plant cover) under low annual rainfall. Furthermore, an increasing rainfall frequency would amplify the range of environmental (rainfall) conditions dominated by biocrust from an annual rainfall 0-100 mm under a rainfall frequency of 0.025 day−1 to 0-500 mm under a rainfall frequency of 1 day−1.Conclusions: This study developed a model framework to predict dryland dynamics for surfaces covered by biocrust under global climate change. We suggest that restoration efforts could target at biocrust-dominated state in deserts, especially in a (future) drier climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]