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Political leaders can influence public beliefs about climate change, and climate beliefs can influence climate actions. But, much is still unknown about (1) whether changes in political landscapes influence public's climate beliefs and (2) the psychological process through which climate beliefs influence pro-environmental sentiments and actions. Achieving a better understanding these influences are the dual purposes of this paper, we investigated during the unique setting of the 2016 US presidential elections. First, we explored to what extent the American public's belief in the anthropogenic origins and negative impacts of climate change were influenced by the 2016 US presidential election and earliest administrative days of a climate-skeptical political leader, Donald Trump. We found Trump's influence on public climate beliefs may have increased after his election in such a way that may have polarized public climate beliefs. Compared with pre-election levels, supporters' climate beliefs grew weaker and, further, opponents' climate beliefs grew stronger after his election. Second, we tested a novel conditional mediation model that proposes climate beliefs interact to exert their influence on climate actions via moral behavioral sentiments. Specifically, we found people's origin and impact climate beliefs interact to influence climate actions by activating moral sentiments about their own environmental behavior (i.e., guilt, striving to be a better person), with the particularly weak moral sentiments reported by those with both weak belief in climate change's anthropogenic origins and its negative impacts. Moral sentiments, in turn, predicted respondents' willingness to save energy to reduce climate change and their support for the Paris Climate Agreement. These results suggest the election of climate-skeptical political leaders can impact the public's climate beliefs. Moreover, climate beliefs interact to influence the moral sentiments people feel about their own behavior, and consequently, influence their climate-friendly behavioral intentions and policy preferences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The worldwide rise of climate skeptical political leaders endangers sorely needed political efforts to mitigate climate change. In addition, climate skepticism expressed by the political elites may spread to the electorate, thus ultimately affecting mitigation actions at the population level. It is crucial to better understand the psychological mechanisms underlying elite influences on public opinion formation and polarization. Here we show how affective processes contribute to these top-down influences using longitudinal data in the context of the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Findings revealed a general decrease in climate change beliefs immediately after the presidential election (November 2016). We moreover found an increase in positive emotions and a decrease in negative emotions toward the Republican Party after the election of President Trump. Most importantly, the positive emotional shift towards the Republican Party mediated the decrease in climate change beliefs: Individuals with pronounced increases in positive emotions toward the Republican Party most strongly reduced their belief in climate change after the presidential election. The effect was intensified among Republican partisans, pointing towards a mechanism underlying political polarization. Using data based on a major real-world political event, our findings illustrate how partisans update their beliefs by referring to the positions of relevant political authorities. We moreover demonstrate how emotions drive top-down influences of political leaders on partisans' opinions and beliefs. Finally, our findings reveal how intensified emotions can contribute to the aggravation of the public climate change divide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transformative narratives developed are built around what we call win-win strategies (WWS), which are practicable solutions that provide near-term economic benefit to individual businesses, municipalities or countries, and at the same time contribute to meeting climate mitigation, adaptation and other sustainability goals. An example of the latter is an investment-oriented climate policy that switches the European economy to a pathway with higher growth, lower unemployment and lower emissions (Tàbara et al. [43]). This narrative was supported by mainstream climate change research and the traditional view of science-policy interactions based on the knowledge-deficit model (Simis et al. [41]). Conclusions Arguably, the most dominant narrative about climate change is the "doom and gloom" narrative, which emphasises problems, costs and adverse impacts of climate change, as well as global top-down solutions. [Extracted from the article]

The impact of human carbon emissions on climate has generated widespread global concern. We selected 24 countries as research objects and analysed the changes in carbon emissions in different countries between the establishment of emission reduction actions in 1990 and 2014. Then, we selected 19 factors representing four categories (economy, population, technology and energy) to explore the key factors that led to changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in different countries. Emission reduction actions since 1990 did not lead to marked improvements, and only five countries (Russia, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy and France) achieved reductions in carbon emissions. The factors that influenced CO2 emissions varied among countries. In most developing countries, reductions in CO2 emissions were caused by reductions in poverty and inherent natural conditions. Moreover, the extent of influence of a given factor on CO2 emissions differed among countries. The global economic crisis may cause similar fluctuations in CO2 emissions in many countries. Adjustments to energy and industrial structures are the main reason for the reduction in carbon emissions, whereas economic growth and urbanization are the two major contributors to the growth of carbon emissions. According to historical carbon emissions data, a green energy revolution must be implemented to address global climate change and ensure the sustainable development of human societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The determinants of farmers' decisions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are currently not well understood. This study takes several new angles in investigating farmers' climate change mitigation behaviour. Based on two identical surveys among representative samples of Dutch farmers, this study examines the underlying determinants and motivating factors for three different types of climate change mitigation measures on farms: energy saving, the production of renewable energy and reduction of emissions of methane and nitrous oxide (non-CO2 emissions). Furthermore, the study explores whether farmers' awareness and behaviour has been influenced by a communication campaign carried out by the government of the Netherlands between 2012 and 2015. Four major conclusions emerge. Firstly, the analyses demonstrate that accounting for the cost-effectiveness and technology readiness level (TRL) of different types of climate change mitigation measures provides for a better understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to adopt these measures. Secondly, neither the willingness to take GHG reduction measures nor knowledge on GHG emissions are consistent motivating factors for energy-related measures. Thirdly, it seems that external factors, such as economic hardship, dominate the overall environmental awareness of farmers. Fourthly, the farmer's propensity to innovate proved to be the strongest and most consistent predictor of both the willingness and the actual adoption of climate change mitigation technologies. Therefore, focusing on making farmers more open to change and general innovation in campaigns in the agricultural sector might be more effective than campaigns focusing specifically on climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has become one of the signature issues that divide the American public. Numerous empirical studies of the past two decades have identified the politicization of this issue. In recent years, the concurrence of rising extreme weather events and uptick in public concern for climate change has led to common speculation that the former may drive up the latter. Using a nationally representative survey dataset combined with climate extremes data including extreme heat, extreme precipitation, and mild drought or worse, we use Structural Equation Modeling to examine how politics and climate extremes altogether shape American public concern for climate change. In addition to confirming politicization of climate change, we find that approval of President Trump not only promotes skeptical climate change perceptions but also serves as an intervening amplifier of these perceptions for Republicans and conservatives. Thus, one's concern for climate change is partially explained by their political identification and partially explained by their levels of approval of Trump. With the 2020 presidential election underway, it remains to be seen how attitudes towards presidential candidates can affect climate change perceptions and support for climate policies. The widely speculated role of climate extremes however fails to show significant effects in views towards climate change. We provide explanations for this insignificant finding. The study ends by calling for more studies to further investigate the drivers of formation of opinions towards climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rainfall during Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is very important for the population living in the Indian sub-continent. The recent Paris climate agreement determined to keep the global mean temperature rise well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to limit it within 1.5 °C. This global temperature rise would influence the ISM mechanism over the Indian sub-continent. This study examines the possible changes in the ISM characteristics at 1.5 and 2 °C specific warming levels (SWLs) with respect to the historical period. This analysis uses a set of 12 regional climate simulations under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments-South Asia (CORDEX-SA). The land as well as the oceans shows a warming signature due to the effect of anthropogenic forcings with much higher warming over land. The increase of global temperature to 1.5 °C (2 °C) SWL leads to an earlier onset of ISM over India by 7 (11) days in the model ensemble. The increasing land-sea temperature contrast gradually increases the strength of the Findlater jet (by 0.5–0.9 m/s), which transports more moisture towards land and causes higher rainfall (increase by 2–10%) over India. The study reveals that under a higher SWL of 2 °C the mean rainfall is augmented as compared to that under 1.5 °C. However, there exists uncertainty in the findings due to inter-model differences especially for the duration of ISM activity and the spatial distribution of rainfall at different SWLs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Paris pledges are unique documents in climate governance that outline what each country intends to do to combat climate change. Often, these documents contain headline greenhouse gas percentage reduction targets that appear to summarize countries' contributions to mitigation. This is a boon for comparative climate policy research. However, I show in this paper that the Paris pledges require detailed interpretation to be comparable. I demonstrate the risks in comparing these targets by re-visiting a recent studying linking national public opinion to the stringency of countries' mitigation goals. I develop new indicators that better account for the structure of the targets and show in replications that the original finding is inconsistent with the underlying data. I conclude by drawing lessons for studying the Paris pledges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK is already experiencing the impacts of climate change and these are expected to increase in scale and severity in the coming decades. Preparing for impacts by undertaking adaptive actions can potentially reduce the level of harm. In the UK, the government's adaptation program aims to develop a "climate-ready society." However, achieving broad public engagement in adaptation presents a significant communications challenge. Here, we aimed to understand how UK residents use and interpret the terms "climate change impacts" and "climate change adaptation." We conducted a secondary analysis of 22 interviews with UK residents, who were recruited for their diverse climate change views. The interviewees expressed a lack of clarity around expected climate change impacts, which did not prevent them from saying that they were already experiencing the effects of a changing climate. Further, threats to cultural norms and values were perceived as serious and emotionally charged. Adaptation was often conflated with mitigation, and responsibility for adaptation was contested. We discuss the implications of our findings for developing more useful public communication about climate change adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The optimal management of natural resources like lakes requires understanding the relationship with other environmental elements. Remote sensing techniques using multi-temporal and multi-sensor images for change detection purposes are important in this regard. This study used a combination of approaches to detect changes in the lake surface area of Lake Sibayi in relation to changes in past climates. Delineation of the study area is achieved using WR2012 endoreic maps and Landsat satellite images from 1992 to 2016. Using data from eight meteorological stations, past climate of the lake catchment was investigated. Thereafter, a multivariate correlation analysis is conducted to examine the relationship between the changes in the lake surface area and the changes in climatic (precipitation, temperature) variables and water levels. Results suggest that the lake surface area has decreased by 20% since 1992. There are significant changes in temperatures, while the annual rainfall totals declined significantly. The correlation between precipitation in the catchment and annual water level changes is 0.88. Statistically, significant increases in the water level and precipitation were experienced in 1993 and 2001. SPI analysis reveals that the study area is getting drier and the probability of recurrence of moderate dryness is 10%. The rate at which the lake is shrinking is not solely climatic related, as anthropogenic aspects are also responsible. To prevent further shrinkage of Lake Sibayi, it will be necessary to develop aggressive restoration policies and action plans aimed at maintaining inflows in the face of compounding climate change and water demand. Recommendations of the nature of further studies that can increase our understanding are included. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current concern over energy utilization and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions can be surveyed by investigating potential energy savings and potential emissions reduction in order to emit less greenhouse gases (GHG), thus allowing countries to create economic growth while at the same time preventing global warming and mitigating climate change. The main objective of this paper is to analyze long-term potential energy savings, potential emissions reduction, and long-term technology gaps on energy utilization and CO2 emissions in G7 and BRICS during 2000–2014. The paper also sets up an index to measure convergence or divergence in the technology gaps on energy utilization and CO2 emissions. The results conclude that the UK, Italy, and France have the smallest overall technology gap, while the largest overall technology gap appears in South Africa, Russia, and the USA. To this end, the technology gap on energy utilization in BRICS is improving in recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nearly all research on public perceptions of climate engineering has been conducted in wealthy, developed countries. However, understanding perspectives from vulnerable populations is critical to inclusive, democratic debate on both research and governance. This study utilized in-depth interviews to explore the perspectives of vulnerable populations in the South Pacific, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the North American Arctic. Interviewees in this study were desperate for solutions to climate change and therefore willing to consider climate engineering. However, their willingness to consider climate engineering could be characterized as both deeply reluctant and highly conditional. Interviewees expressed a number of concerns about potential social and political implications of engineering the climate. They also described conditions that may need to be met to ensure that future climates (engineered or otherwise) are more equitable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mainstream discourses on global climate change have tended to focus on mitigation and have neglected the adaptive measures, particularly at the local level, even though the local/indigenous people have been considered to be more vulnerable to such change. However, climate change has a distinct local reality—since the way such change is perceived and addressed is linked with the local people and their practices. Although climate change largely affects the lives of the local poor, certain positive effects may also occur for those marginalized people. In other words, many of the indigenous peoples have an adaptive capacity to deal with climate change. Therefore, climate change adaptation has now increasingly gained prominence. In this context, this paper will investigate the impact of climate change at the local level and explain how an indigenous and vulnerable population, the Konda Reddis, respond to such change through cultural adaptation. The paper will focus on the cultural significance of the jeelugu (fishtail palm, Caryota urens) and Konda Reddis’ shift from the jeelugu to the tati (palmyra palm, Borassus flabellifera). I will argue that such a shift is an indication of an adaptation to climate change. I will also maintain that though climate change plays a dominant role in stimulating such adaptation, certain other factors also interact with climatic factors in the adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2015 Paris Agreement commits countries to pursue efforts to limit the increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We assess the consequences of achieving this target in 2100 for the impacts that are avoided, using several indicators of impact (exposure to drought, river flooding, heat waves and demands for heating and cooling energy). The proportion of impacts that are avoided is not simply equal to the proportional reduction in temperature. At the global scale, the median proportion of projected impacts avoided by the 1.5 °C target relative to a rise of 4 °C ranges between 62 and 95% across sectors: the greatest reduction is for heat wave impacts. The 1.5 °C target results in impacts that would be between 27 and 62% lower than with the 2 °C target. For each indicator, there are differences in the proportions of impacts avoided between regions depending on exposure and the regional changes in climate (particularly precipitation). Uncertainty in the proportion of impacts that are avoided for a specific sector depends on the range in the shape of the relationship between global temperature change and impact, and this varies between sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improving the energy efficiency of conventional energy services is an essential way to cope with global CO emissions mitigation. To date, energy efficiency improvement (EEI) has been broadly introduced exogenously in integrated assessment models (IAMs) by virtue of the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) coefficient; however, it is usually good at capturing the EEI driven by non-price factors, while weak in describing the EEI induced by policy incentives. In this paper, we introduce an endogenous EEI (EEEI) mechanism in an IAM, called E3METL, to explore the impacts of EEEI on the global macro-economy, CO emission paths, and timing of carbon mitigations. The results reveal that (1) introducing EEEI significantly improves gross world product (GWP) gains, and this positive effect is partly offset when carbon restriction policies are implemented; (2) R&D investment dedicated to enhance energy efficiency limits R&D expenditures for other alternative technologies, and this effect will impede the development of non-fossil technologies; (3) EEEI may perform as one of supporting factors to delay the actions of carbon reduction; moreover, the introduction of EEEI lowers the optimal carbon tax level by 7.8 % on average, as compared to the no EEEI case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improving energy efficiency is a cornerstone in climate change mitigation, and energy services are portrayed as a promising market-based approach to achieve this. This paper examines the barriers to, and driving forces needed for, the implementation of energy services from the perspective of Swedish local and regional energy companies. This includes an analysis of the resources needed in three phases of energy service implementation, i.e., development, sales, and deployment. The results indicate a supply-side interest in providing energy services, with the major challenges being related to (a) intra-organizational issues such as a lack of strategic direction and intent and (b) a perceived lack of knowledge, interest, and trust on the part of potential energy service customers. The paper concludes with managerial and policy implications on how an increased focus and impact of energy service can be achieved among local and regional companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cloud detection is an essential preprocessing step for retrieving carbon dioxide from satellite observations of reflected sunlight. During the pre-launch study of the Chinese Carbon Dioxide Observation Satellite (TANSAT), a cloud-screening scheme was presented for the Cloud and Aerosol Polarization Imager (CAPI), which only performs measurements in five channels located in the visible to near-infrared regions of the spectrum. The scheme for CAPI, based on previous cloudscreening algorithms, defines a method to regroup individual threshold tests for each pixel in a scene according to the derived clear confidence level. This scheme is proven to be more effective for sensors with few channels. The work relies upon the radiance data from the Visible and Infrared Radiometer (VIRR) onboard the Chinese FengYun-3A Polar-orbiting Meteorological Satellite (FY-3A), which uses four wavebands similar to that of CAPI and can serve as a proxy for its measurements. The scheme has been applied to a number of the VIRR scenes over four target areas (desert, snow, ocean, forest) for all seasons. To assess the screening results, comparisons against the cloud-screening product from MODIS are made. The evaluation suggests that the proposed scheme inherits the advantages of schemes described in previous publications and shows improved cloud-screening results. A seasonal analysis reveals that this scheme provides better performance during warmer seasons, except for observations over oceans, where results are much better in colder seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A recent Climatic Change paper suggests a relationship between climatic change in the 7th century BCE and the fall of the Assyrian Empire. However, available archaeological and textual evidence does not support the hypothesis that Assyria was overpopulated during this time and for that reason susceptible to outbreaks of drought. Besides long-term climatic variation, inter-annual variability in crops has always been very high in the dry farming areas of Upper Mesopotamia. To cope with this uncertainty, the local population developed several strategies (e.g. storage of agricultural surpluses in granaries and artificial irrigation in river valleys). Finally, slave prices, known to have declined during times of famine, were relatively stable during the entire century suggesting absence of prolonged periods of food shortage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation (CCA) links adaptation and sustainable development goals by integrating climate change information, concerns, and considerations into existing development planning, policy- and decision-making processes. It is gaining popularity in developing countries, but its operationalization has been slow because of the challenges that hinder its on-ground application. To understand the nature of these challenges, this paper developed a four-stage mixed methodology that examined mainstreaming of CCA into local land use planning in Albay, Philippines. The methodology includes a modified Institutional Analysis and Development framework for the qualitative analysis, and 20 mainstreaming indicators for the quantitative assessment. The data used in the analysis were collected from a survey and the interviews conducted among the key players in local land use planning in Albay. The correlation analysis showed that the challenges related to knowledge and awareness, local government prioritization, institutional incentives, availability of funds, access to funds, and stability of funds had the highest frequency of interconnections with the other challenges. Also, a strong tripartite relationship among local leadership, local government prioritization, and local government' s commitment to CCA was observed. The paper suggests that mainstreaming challenges are interconnected at varying degrees. It presents analytical tools and quantifiable measures that can be used to develop a reliable basis for the qualitative assessments of adaptation needs and effectiveness. These sets of information can help analyst and practitioners make informed decisions regarding the operationalization of mainstreaming CCA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding public perceptions of changes in local weather patterns is fundamental to both climate science and policy, especially in sub-Saharan Africa where adaptation will be crucial to reduce the projected impacts of climate change. In this study, a nationally-representative sample of households in Niger is used to document how perceptions of 2007-2011 rainfall changes vary across households depending on their socio-economic characteristics and their location within the latitudinal rainfall gradient of the country. We further characterize the complex relationship between perceived rainfall trends and rainfall data derived from satellite data. We found that over the last five years, most people perceive less rainfall (76 %), worse distribution of rainfall in the year (78 %), more frequent droughts (83 %) and a rainy season delayed (71 %) and also finishing earlier (80 %). These perceptions are consistent with an observed worsening of rainfall conditions as seen from satellite data. Our results demonstrate that smallholders, commercial farmers, pastoralists and sedentary agro-pastoralists living in rural dry areas have a higher level of awareness of local changes than other respondents. Indeed, perceptions of these climate-sensitive households are more consensual and more closely related to observed local changes. We found that climate-sensitive households are able to detect very accurately changes in the beginning of the rainy season and to a lesser extent changes in rainfall distribution and drought frequency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we examine budget approaches as a device for burden sharing in mitigating climate change. The purpose of this comment is twofold: First, we provide an overview over the general concept of budget approaches and investigate into the role of such approaches within the current climate negotiations. Second, as these approaches have an obvious normative dimension, we discuss some of the issues raised by Schuppert and Seidel () in this Special Issue from the stance of an environmental economist. We highlight that budget approaches may serve as a tool to communicate the urgency of action against climate change and to remind representatives from industrialized countries of their responsibility in the historical sense as well as in terms of ability-to-pay. This even holds when the allocation of national emission shares is based on relatively easy-to-calculate sharing rules that can potentially serve as normative heuristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Border tax adjustment is a second-best solution for improving climate mitigation measures as long as international cooperation does not function to a satisfactory degree. However, the implementation of such measures can legally be problematic under the angle of the legal framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO) which aims at liberalizing international trade and at avoiding trade barriers. In particular, border tax adjustment might come into conflict with the National Treatment principle and the discipline on subsidies. These legal problems can only be overcome if the specific legal justification reasons provided for in WTO law for the promotion of climate sustainability (such as conservation of exhaustible resources and protection of human, animal or plant health) are interpreted in a broad way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A significant number of countries classified as 'developing' during the negotiation of the UNFCCC in the early 1990s have experienced rapid economic growth and increase of greenhouse gas emissions since then. We assess whether governments of such countries are considering taking up responsibility for emissions mitigation in the context of the UNFCCC's principle of common but differentiated responsibility (CBDR). While an expansion of mitigation responsibility to Non-Annex I countries has been strongly opposed by overarching groups such as the G 77, we find countries such as South Africa and Indonesia that have clearly supported binding commitments. Other countries like China and Singapore oppose binding commitments but increasingly engage in domestic mitigation action. Moreover, China has pledged a significant amount of climate finance. Even in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which adamantly refuse mitigation commitments, some mitigation action seems to emerge. We thus foresee that countries will increasingly adopt differentiated positions regarding their responsibility for mitigation. This could provide new dynamics in international climate negotiations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How best to improve climate mitigation measures while we wait for an international consensus on climate policy? This is a practical problem raising important normative issues. The problem is the urgent need for better climate mitigation measures that is time-sensitive: conditions can only deteriorate over time rendering the problem and the relevant stakes even more pressing. The normative issues raised include whether a second-best solution is compelling given these non-ideal conditions and what form such a solution ought to take. This article responds to issues raised in Rolf H. Weber's insightful piece in this special issue, such as the balancing of mitigation policies and securing market competitiveness leading to Weber's defence of border tax adjustment. This article critically examines Weber's position on competitiveness and its connection to border tax adjustment as a second-best option from a justice-based perspective. It is argued that strategies based around taxation-such as the Global Resources Dividend, the polluter pays principle and border tax adjustment-are problematic and unconvincing alternatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Of the carbon dioxide that we emit, a substantial fraction remains in the atmosphere for thousands of years. Combined with the slow response of the climate system, this results in the global temperature increase resulting from CO being nearly proportional to the total emitted amount of CO since preindustrial times. This has a number of simple but far-reaching consequences that raise important questions for climate change mitigation, policy and ethics. Even if anthropogenic emissions of CO were stopped, most of the realized climate change would persist for centuries and thus be irreversible on human timescales, yet standard economic thinking largely discounts these long-term intergenerational effects. Countries and generations to first order contribute to both past and future climate change in proportion to their total emissions. A global temperature target implies a CO 'budget' or 'quota', a finite amount of CO that society is allowed to emit to stay below the target. Distributing that budget over time and between countries is an ethical challenge that our world has so far failed to address. Despite the simple relationship between CO emissions and temperature, the consequences for climate policy and for sharing the responsibility of reducing global CO emissions can only be drawn in combination with judgments about equity, fairness, the value of future generations and our attitude towards risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warming of the climate system and its impacts on biophysical and human systems have been widely documented. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have also changed, but the observed increases in natural disaster losses are often thought to result solely from societal change, such as increases in exposure and vulnerability. Here we analyse the economic losses from tropical cyclones in the United States, using a regression-based approach instead of a standard normalization procedure to changes in exposure and vulnerability, to minimize the chance of introducing a spurious trend. Unlike previous studies, we use statistical models to estimate the contributions of socioeconomic factors to the observed trend in losses and we account for non-normal and nonlinear characteristics of loss data. We identify an upward trend in economic losses between 1900 and 2005 that cannot be explained by commonly used socioeconomic variables. Based on records of geophysical data, we identify an upward trend in both the number and intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic basin as well as in the number of loss-generating tropical cyclone records in the United States that is consistent with the smoothed global average rise in surface air temperature. We estimate that, in 2005, US$2 to US$14 billion of the recorded annual losses could be attributable to climate change, 2 to 12% of that year's normalized losses. We suggest that damages from tropical cyclones cannot be dismissed when evaluating the current and future costs of climate change and the expected benefits of mitigation and adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of climate compatible development (CCD) is increasingly employed by donors and policy makers seeking 'triple-wins' for development, adaptation and mitigation. While CCD rhetoric is becoming more widespread, analyses drawing on empirical cases that present triple-wins are sorely lacking. We address this knowledge gap. Drawing on examples in rural sub-Saharan Africa, we provide the first glimpse into how projects that demonstrate triple-win potential are framed and presented within the scientific literature. We identify that development projects are still commonly evaluated in terms of adaptation or mitigation benefits. Few are framed according to their benefits across all three dimensions. Consequently, where triple-wins are occurring, they are likely to be under-reported. This has important implications, which underestimates the co-benefits that projects can deliver. A more robust academic evidence base for the delivery of triple-wins is necessary to encourage continued donor investment in activities offering the potential to deliver CCD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the potential impacts of alternative international climate change scenarios based on different policies and technological circumstances on future emission pathways and abatement costs. It also examines if these hypothetical scenarios could result in significant emission reductions required to control the global temperature from rising to no more than 2.5 °C above preindustrial level. Using an integrated assessment model, this paper examines these issues under 12 scenarios derived from four policy perspectives and three technology dimensions. Results show that the no-policy-change baseline scenarios lead to high global average temperatures in the future. To control the temperature efficiently, every global region will be required to undertake considerable abatement efforts. Current country pledges alone, even if fully implemented, cannot control the global temperature in the future to within a comfortable zone. There will still be large gap between the reductions needed to meet the 2.5 degree objective, associated with 550 ppm and the reductions associated with existing abatement efforts. Further stringent policies together with favourable technological conditions may lead to the desired level of temperature control. Participation by only a subset of nations not only makes achieving the temperature goal difficult but also costly. To achieve temperature control efficiently, global coordination and full participation by all regions are necessary and global participation may reduce global abatement costs. It is worth noting that abatement costs vary widely across regions under different policy and technology scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing the challenges of global warming requires interventions on both the energy supply and demand side. With the supply side responses being thoroughly discussed in the literature, our paper focuses on analyzing the role of end use efficiency improvements for Indian climate change mitigation policy and the associated co-benefits, within the integrated assessment modeling framework of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Six scenarios are analyzed here in total- one no climate policy and two climate policy cases, and within each of these one scenario with reference end use energy technology assumptions and another with advance end use energy technology assumptions has been analyzed. The paper has some important insights. Final energy demand and emissions in India are significantly reduced with energy efficiency improvements, and the role of this policy is important especially for the building and transportation sector under both reference and climate policy scenarios. Though energy efficiency policy should be an integral part of climate policy, by itself it is not sufficient for achieving mitigation targets, and a climate policy is necessary for achieving mitigation goals. There are significant co-benefits of energy efficiency improvements. Energy security for India is improved with reduced oil, coal and gas imports. Significant reduction in local pollutant gases is found which is important for local health concerns. Capital investment requirement for Indian electricity generation is reduced, more so for the climate policy scenarios, and finally there are significant savings in terms of reduced abatement cost for meeting climate change mitigation goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The nuclear energy response for mitigating global climate change across 18 participating models of the EMF27 study is investigated. Diverse perspectives on the future role of nuclear power in the global energy system are evident in the broad range of nuclear power contributions from participating models of the study. In the Baseline scenario without climate policy, nuclear electricity generation and shares span 0-66 EJ/year and 0-25 % in 2100 for all models, with a median nuclear electricity generation of 39 EJ/year (1,389 GWe at 90 % capacity factor) and median share of 9 %. The role of nuclear energy increased under the climate policy scenarios. The median of nuclear energy use across all models doubled in the 450 ppm COe scenario with a nuclear electricity generation of 67 EJ/year (2,352 GWe at 90 % capacity factor) and share of 17 % in 2100. The broad range of nuclear electricity generation (11-214 EJ/year) and shares (2-38 %) in 2100 of the 450 ppm COe scenario reflect differences in the technology choice behavior, technology assumptions and competitiveness of low carbon technologies. Greater clarification of nuclear fuel cycle issues and risk factors associated with nuclear energy use are necessary for understanding the nuclear deployment constraints imposed in models and for improving the assessment of the nuclear energy potential in addressing climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on a large number of energy-economic and integrated assessment models, the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 27 study systematically explores the implications of technology cost and availability for feasibility and macroeconomic costs of energy system transformations toward climate stabilization. At the highest level, the technology strategy articulated in all the scenarios in EMF27 includes three elements: decarbonization of energy supply, increasing the use of low-carbon energy carriers in end-use, and reduction of energy use. The way that the scenarios differ is in the degree to which these different elements of strategy are implemented, the timing of those implementations, and the associated macroeconomic costs. The study also discusses the value of individual technologies for achieving climate stabilization. A robust finding is that the unavailability of carbon capture and storage and limited availability of bioenergy have the largest impact on feasibility and macroeconomic costs for stabilizing atmospheric concentrations at low levels, mostly because of their combined ability to remove carbon from the atmosphere. Constraining options in the electric sector such as nuclear power, wind and solar energy in contrast has a much smaller impact on the cost of mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess the future of coal under alternative climate stabilization regimes, investigating how the quantity and location of future coal production, trade and use depends upon five factors: the supply-side constraint of resource depletion, diversification and deepening of international trade, economic growth, trends in energy intensity, and the availability of coal-fired carbon-free electric generation technology (IGCC-CCS). Using the Phoenix computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, we find that coal is sensitive to demand-side assumptions about economic growth and energy-saving structural or technological change. In a 550 ppm stabilization emission tax scenario, the gobal coal industry initially declines sharply and then rebounds, in 2050 reaching roughly the same size as it is today-but only if IGCC-CCS is available by 2020. Under alternative stabilization regimes, IGCC-CCS penetration is a key influence on production and imports in major coal regions, where it interacts with extraction costs driven by the rate of depletion relative to trade partners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses the OECD's global recursive-dynamic general equilibrium model ENVLinkages to examine the mid-term economic consequences and the optimal energy supply mix adjustments of a simultaneous implementation of i) a progressive fossil fuel subsidy reform in emerging and developing economies and ii) a progressive phase out of nuclear energy, mostly affecting OECD countries, China and Russia. The analysis is then transposed in the context of climate change mitigation to depict the corresponding implications for CO2 emissions, to assess the interactions between the two energy policies, and to derive how the associated costs are affected by the different policies. The phase-out scenario projects a nuclear capacity halved by 2035 as compared to the Baseline, corresponding to $120 billion losses in value-added of the nuclear industry for that year. The nuclear phase-out leaves GDP and real household consumption marginally affected in energy importing countries. A multilateral subsidy reform is more likely to affect international fossil fuel prices and alter patterns of global energy use. The fossil fuel subsidy reform, when implemented together with nuclear phase-out, more than offsets negative consequences on household consumption but still leads to a decrease in global CO2 emissions. The combined policies help save the equivalent of current energy consumption in the Middle East. Combining a climate policy, an effective fossil fuel subsidy reform, even with a lower nuclear share in the power mix, brings about multiple benefits to OECD countries which reduce their energy bill and achieve large climate change mitigation at lower cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the role of transport electrification in the broader context of energy system transformation and climate stabilization. As part of the EMF27 model inter-comparison exercise, we employ the MESSAGE integrated assessment modeling framework to conduct a systematic variation of availability, cost, and performance of particular energy supply technologies, thereby deriving implications for feasibility of climate stabilization goals and the associated costs of mitigation. In addition, we explore a wide range of assumptions regarding the potential degree of electrification of the transportation sector. These analyses allow us to (i) test the extent to which the feasible attainment of stringent climate policy targets depends on transport electrification, and (ii) assess the far-reaching impacts that transport electrification could have throughout the rest of the energy system. A detailed analysis of the transition to electricity within the transport sector is not conducted. Our results indicate that while a low-carbon transport system built upon conventional liquid-based fuel delivery infrastructures is destined to become increasingly reliant on biofuels and synthetic liquids, electrification opens up a door through which nuclear energy and non-biomass renewables can flow. The latter has important implications for mitigation costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents the synthesis of results from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Study 27, an inter-comparison of 18 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. The study investigated the importance of individual mitigation options such as energy intensity improvements, carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, solar and wind power and bioenergy for climate mitigation. Limiting the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration to 450 or 550 ppm CO equivalent by 2100 would require a decarbonization of the global energy system in the 21 century. Robust characteristics of the energy transformation are increased energy intensity improvements and the electrification of energy end use coupled with a fast decarbonization of the electricity sector. Non-electric energy end use is hardest to decarbonize, particularly in the transport sector. Technology is a key element of climate mitigation. Versatile technologies such as CCS and bioenergy are found to be most important, due in part to their combined ability to produce negative emissions. The importance of individual low-carbon electricity technologies is more limited due to the many alternatives in the sector. The scale of the energy transformation is larger for the 450 ppm than for the 550 ppm COe target. As a result, the achievability and the costs of the 450 ppm target are more sensitive to variations in technology availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluated the impacts of climate change mitigation technology options on CO emission reductions and the effects of model representations regarding renewable intermittency on the assessment of reduction by using a world energy systems model. First, different diffusion scenarios for carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, and wind power and solar PV are selected from EMF27 scenarios to analyze their impacts on CO emission reductions. These technologies are important for reducing CO intensity of electricity, and the impacts of their diffusion levels on mitigation costs are significant, according to the analyses. Availability of CCS in particular, among the three kinds of technologies, has a large impact on the marginal CO abatement cost. In order to analyze effects of model representations regarding renewables intermittency, four different representations are assumed within the model. A simplistic model representation that does not take into consideration the intermittency of wind power and solar PV evaluates larger contributions of the energy sources than those evaluated by a model representation that takes intermittency into consideration. Appropriate consideration of renewables intermittency within global energy systems models will be important for realistic evaluations of climate change mitigation scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy (RE) in climate change mitigation. Currently RE supplies almost 20 % of global electricity demand. Almost all EMF27 mitigation scenarios show a strong increase in renewable power production, with a substantial ramp-up of wind and solar power deployment. In many scenarios, renewables are the most important long-term mitigation option for power supply. Wind energy is competitive even without climate policy, whereas the prospects of solar photovoltaics (PV) are highly contingent on the ambitiousness of climate policy. Bioenergy is an important and versatile energy carrier; however-with the exception of low temperature heat-there is less scope for renewables other than biomass for non-electric energy supply. Despite the important role of wind and solar power in climate change mitigation scenarios with full technology availability, limiting their deployment has a relatively small effect on mitigation costs, if nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS)-which can serve as substitutes in low-carbon power supply-are available. Limited bioenergy availability in combination with limited wind and solar power by contrast, results in a more substantial increase in mitigation costs. While a number of robust insights emerge, the results on renewable energy deployment levels vary considerably across the models. An in-depth analysis of a subset of EMF27 reveals substantial differences in modeling approaches and parameter assumptions. To a certain degree, differences in model results can be attributed to different assumptions about technology costs, resource potentials and systems integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy efficiency is one of the main options for mitigating climate change. An accurate representation of various mechanisms of energy efficiency is vital for the assessment of its realistic potential. Results of a questionnaire show that the EMF27 models collectively represent known channels of energy efficiency reasonably well, addressing issues of energy efficiency barriers and rebound effects. The majority of models, including general equilibrium models, have an explicit end-use representation for the transportation sector. All participating partial equilibrium models have some capability of reflecting the actual market behavior of consumers and firms. The EMF27 results show that energy intensity declines faster under climate policy than under a baseline scenario. With a climate policy roughly consistent with a global warming of two degrees, the median annual improvement rate of energy intensity for 2010-2030 reaches 2.3 % per year [with a full model range of 1.3-2.9 %/yr], much faster than the historical rate of 1.3 % per year. The improvement rate increases further if technology is constrained. The results suggest that the target of the United Nations' 'Sustainable Energy for All' initiative is consistent with the 2-degree climate change target, as long as there are no technology constraints. The rate of energy intensity decline varies significantly across models, with larger variations at the regional and sectoral levels. Decomposition of the transportation sector down to a service level for a subset of models reveals that to achieve energy efficiency, a general equilibrium model tends to reduce service demands while partial equilibrium models favor technical substitution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate is changing and this will have consequences across the globe, affecting all areas of the natural and human environment in complex ways. One tool for exploring the complex relationship between climate change and security is to use a scenariobased approach as means to develop plausible rather than probable narratives. This approach can explore the range of uncertainty, and help policymakers to visualise the potential consequences of climate change. Scenario methodology has been most comprehensively developed for use in business planning and there are some differences in the way scenarios work for climate security. The most notable is the fact that there is a physical modelling basis for climate projections. This means that the uncertainty range associated with at least this one aspect of the scenario can be systematically sampled. This paper reviews how scenarios have been used in the climate security literature to date, in particular in the grey literature. The integration of climate projections is explored in detail, as the main distinguishing feature of climate security scenarios over other scenario types. Few climate security scenarios have been developed to date, but all those included in this review, regardless of the differences in national conditions, regional climate change and potential responses, came to very similar conclusions. This was despite differences in the changes in climate and non-climate drivers, or differences in the scenario approach and audience. A more systematic and scientific approach to developing the scenario drivers and narratives is recommended, and successfully embedding changes in climate within the socio-economic context, through better integration of inter-disciplinary expertise, is critical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are diverse linkages between climate change and security including risks of conflict, national security concerns, critical national infrastructure, geo-political rivalries and threats to human security. We review analysis of these domains from primary research and from policy prescriptive and advocacy sources. We conclude that much analysis over-emphasises deterministic mechanisms between climate change and security. Yet the climate-security nexus is more complex than it appears and requires attention from across the social sciences. We review the robustness of present social sciences analysis in assessing the causes and consequences of climate change on human security, and identify new areas of research. These new areas include the need to analyse the absence of conflict in the face of climate risks and the need to expand the range of issues accounted for in analysis of climate and security including the impacts of mitigation response on domains of security. We argue for the necessity of robust theories that explain causality and associations, and the need to include theories of asymmetric power relations in explaining security dimensions. We also highlight the dilemmas of how observations and historical analysis of climate and security dimensions may be limited as the climate changes in ways that present regions with unprecedented climate risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taking into account the fact of global economic integration, this paper improves the RICE model and the MRICES model, and establishes a new integrated assessment model MRICES-2012, which takes Ramsey utility as the standard of fairness. Based on the model, schemes which meet the global emission mitigation targets as well as the interests of developing countries are simulated to assess the international fairness of emission reduction. Therefore, a new feasible scheme is proposed, which can not only reach the Copenhagen Consensus but also ensure interests of every country. Specifically speaking, the US and Japan cut emissions 80% and 70% respectively by 2050 relative to the 1990 level; the EU and other developed countries cut 80% by 2050 relative to 1990 level; high human development countries cut 50% by 2050 relative to 1990 level; all above-mentioned countries start emission reduction from 2020 and keep emission on 2050 level by 2100; China begins emission reduction from 2030 and cuts emission 15% by 2050 and 25% by 2100 relative to 2005 level; medium human development countries keep emission on 2020 level by 2100; low human development countries do not take part in reduction on emission intensity and global emission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This methodological paper has a didactic goal: improving our understanding of what 'cost optimal energy performance of buildings' means and how financial appraisal of efficiency investments must be set up. Three items merit improvement. First, focus on the endowment character of energy performance of long-living assets like buildings. Second, defining cost optimal requires more than a comparative static trade-off scheme; cost optimal refers to dynamic efficiency, which results from technology dynamics induced by changes in society and policy. Third, financial appraisal is a more complex issue than simple net present value and life cycle cost calculations. It must reflect the time sequential dynamics of real-life processes including real-life decision making. Financial appraisal is embedded in a complex framework made up by three dimensions: future time, doubt and irrevocability. The latter dimension connects with issues like lock-in and path dependency that are generally overlooked in net present value calculations. This may lead to very erroneous recommendations regarding efficiency investments, in particular regarding the energy performance endowment of buildings. Mostly irrevocability is used as an argument to 'wait and learn' what has, for example, blocked the pace of climate policy. But the opposite 'choose or lose' is the logical outcome when the methodology is fed with evidenced expectations. The latter boosts energy efficiency to its boundaries, saving it from the middle-of-the-river quagmire where incomplete appraisals are dropping it too often (making the good the worst enemy of the best). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how transportation sector managers perceive and utilize climate science, and subsequently, how they appropriate the climate change problem. The analysis focuses on which devices they qualify as useful for translating between knowledge, policy and practice concluding with a discussion of what this suggests in the development of efficient climate adaptation strategies. The paper demonstrates that although transportation sector managers accept the findings of climate science knowledge presented to them, their understanding of the climate change problem and the range of qualifying anchoring devices used in the development of climate adaption strategies are differentiated according to where they are located in the institutional context. For transportation sector managers on the regional and district level, the climate problem is largely perceived through the occurrence of extreme weather rather than through climate science. However, this knowledge basis is not considered sufficient to support 'knowing how to act' and has resulted in waiting for the authorities to make standards and regulations that would translate climate change knowledge into methods of practice. We argue that the development of standards and regulations might be underestimated in relation to user demands in climate adaptation work that involves reconciling scientific information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the processes by which the generic adaptive capacity of a system is translated into adaptation to climate change, what form it takes, and what factors facilitate or restrain such processes. This is done by an in-depth analysis of climate change adaptation in the Water supply and Wastewater (WW) sector of the Stockholm region. Observed adaptations are categorized in terms of building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptive decisions, and these measures are analyzed using a model of the adaptation process based on organizational learning theories. In particular, the concept of an organization's actual adaptation space is defined and used as a means to understand the adaptation options that different WW organizations can pursue, as well as why such options might be pursued. The paper finds that most adaptation measures in the WW sector of the Stockholm region are aimed at building the adaptive capacity of the sector. It also finds that the extent to which adaptation measures can be pursued by the WW organizations is determined principally by how able the organization is to justify the additional resources required for adaptation. The analysis shows that there are two main routes to address this: use of climate knowledge to argue that adaptation is needed, and reference to rules and regulations to show that it is required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessments conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are significant undertakings that require input from experts and practitioners in multiple scientific disciplines, integrating local to international information across spatial and temporal scales. An IPCC report is a unique collaboration between the scientific community and policymakers, with governments (through their Focal Points) providing guidance and input to the scientists conducting an assessment at several stages during the process. This commentary reviews the IPCC mandate and process; summarizes key themes to be addressed in the Working Group II contribution to the 5th assessment report; discusses challenges for the WGII report when assessing qualitative literature, incorporating local knowledge, and identifying particularly vulnerable groups; and touches on the expertise and commitment of the WGII authors. Active engagement of the wider scientific community in IPCC assessments through publication and review will enhance their relevance to decision- and policy-makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares the results of the three state of the art climate-energy-economy models IMACLIM-R, ReMIND-R, and WITCH to assess the costs of climate change mitigation in scenarios in which the implementation of a global climate agreement is delayed or major emitters decide to participate in the agreement at a later stage only. We find that for stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations at 450 ppm CO-only, postponing a global agreement to 2020 raises global mitigation costs by at least about half and a delay to 2030 renders ambitious climate targets infeasible to achieve. In the standard policy scenario-in which allocation of emission permits is aimed at equal per-capita levels in the year 2050-regions with above average emissions (such as the EU and the US alongside the rest of Annex-I countries) incur lower mitigation costs by taking early action, even if mitigation efforts in the rest of the world experience a delay. However, regions with low per-capita emissions which are net exporters of emission permits (such as India) can possibly benefit from higher future carbon prices resulting from a delay. We illustrate the economic mechanism behind these observations and analyze how (1) lock-in of carbon intensive infrastructure, (2) differences in global carbon prices, and (3) changes in reduction commitments resulting from delayed action influence mitigation costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geoengineering methods are intended to reduce climate change, which is already having demonstrable effects on ecosystem structure and functioning in some regions. Two types of geoengineering activities that have been proposed are: carbon dioxide (CO) removal (CDR), which removes CO from the atmosphere, and solar radiation management (SRM, or sunlight reflection methods), which reflects a small percentage of sunlight back into space to offset warming from greenhouse gases (GHGs). Current research suggests that SRM or CDR might diminish the impacts of climate change on ecosystems by reducing changes in temperature and precipitation. However, sudden cessation of SRM would exacerbate the climate effects on ecosystems, and some CDR might interfere with oceanic and terrestrial ecosystem processes. The many risks and uncertainties associated with these new kinds of purposeful perturbations to the Earth system are not well understood and require cautious and comprehensive research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the function of phytoplankton in global climate change mitigation. The author denotes the diverse role of these phytoplanktons in maintaining the stability of several marine animals' life. It cites the functions of phytoplanktons in converting carbon into oxygen needed in the atmosphere and in the ocean. The phytoplanktons' importance for the gradual control of climate change is also discussed.

The author reflects on the relation of interdisciplinarity and climate change. He explores the scientometric study of A. Bjurström and M. Polk discussing the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (TAR). He argues that ex-post integration at the end of a disciplinary assessment process provides limited support for risk-based approaches to climatic changes, adding that the effort of IPCC contribute to the improvement of uncertainty treatment.