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There are many modeling works that aim to explain people's behaviors that violate classical economic theories. However, these models often do not take into full account the multi-stage nature of real-life problems and people's tendency in solving complicated problems sequentially. In this work, we propose a descriptive decision-making model for multi-stage problems with perceived post-decision information. In the model, decisions are chosen based on an entity which we call the 'anticipated surprise'. The reference point is determined by the expected value of the possible outcomes, which we assume to be dynamically changing during the mental simulation of a sequence of events. We illustrate how our formalism can help us understand prominent economic paradoxes and gambling behaviors that involve multi-stage or sequential planning. We also discuss how neuroscience findings, like prediction error signals and introspective neuronal replay, as well as psychological theories like affective forecasting, are related to the features in our model. This provides hints for future experiments to investigate the role of these entities in decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A development imperative emphasising the economic benefits of mineral extraction has led researchers to speculate about whether minerals inflate citizens' economic expectations and, due to an upward shift in aspirations, cause a degree of dissatisfaction. Using survey data from 18 Latin American countries, this study finds evidence of the 'euphoric effect' of minerals materialising among household expectations concerning future changes in the economic situation of their country. Similarly, it also finds a positive and significant relationship with expectations concerning future changes in respondents' personal economic situation. However, it does not detect a significant relationship between minerals and citizens' life satisfaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies highlight that economic expectations are a crucial determinant of citizens' satisfaction with democracy (SWD). This article relies on a cross-sectional analysis of European survey data collected in the aftermath of COVID-19 disease to investigate the relationship between citizens' expectations about future economic prospects and their SWD. Our findings support the idea that citizens' expectations about future economic prospects are correlated with SWD. Furthermore, they reveal that perceived conditions of material wellbeing moderate this relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies highlight that economic expectations are a crucial determinant of citizens' satisfaction with democracy (SWD). This article relies on a cross-sectional analysis of European survey data collected in the aftermath of COVID-19 disease to investigate the relationship between citizens' expectations about future economic prospects and their SWD. Our findings support the idea that citizens' expectations about future economic prospects are correlated with SWD. Furthermore, they reveal that perceived conditions of material wellbeing moderate this relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies highlight that economic expectations are a crucial determinant of citizens' satisfaction with democracy (SWD). This article relies on a cross-sectional analysis of European survey data collected in the aftermath of COVID-19 disease to investigate the relationship between citizens' expectations about future economic prospects and their SWD. Our findings support the idea that citizens' expectations about future economic prospects are correlated with SWD. Furthermore, they reveal that perceived conditions of material wellbeing moderate this relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we examine the expectations of the economic outlook, fear of the future, and behavioural change during the first Covid-19 wave, for three European countries (Spain, the United Kingdom, and Italy) that have been severely hit. We use a novel dataset that we collected to monitor the three countries during the crisis. As outcome variables, we used expectations (e.g., economic outlook, labour market situation, recovery), fear (e.g., scenario of new outburst, economic depression, restriction to individual rights and freedom), and behavioural change across the following dimensions: savings, cultural consumption, social capital, and risky behaviour. We provide descriptive evidence that is representative of the population of interest, and we estimate the impact of exposure to shock occurred during the crisis on the same outcome variables, using matching techniques. Our main findings are the following: we detected systematically negative expectations regarding the future and the recovery, majoritarian fears of an economic depression, a new outbreak, and a permanent restriction on freedom, a reduction in saving and in social capital. Exposure to shocks decreased expected job prospects, increased withdrawal from accumulated savings, and reduced contacts with the network relevant to job advancement, whereas it had inconclusive effects over fears. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The search for the associated production of a Higgs boson with a top quark–antiquark pair with the CMS detector will be presented. Candidate events are selected with criteria enhancing respectively the dileptonic, semileptonic and fully hadronic decay channels of the system and the decay of the Higgs boson into a bottom quark–antiquark pair (). In order to increase the sensitivity of the search, selected events are split into several categories with different expected signal and background rates. A combined fit of multivariate discriminant templates across all categories and decay channels is performed to extract the result. Results for Run II data will be shown. Prospects for improvements towards Run III will also be discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The inflation expectations of economic agents are one of the most important variables for central banks and monetary policy conduct, but such expectations are not directly observable. Consumers' expectations are examined in qualitative surveys. The key task is to transform consumers' survey responses into quantitative proxies of expectations. In this examination, we investigate an alternative method to quantify consumers' inflation expectations using fuzzy rule-based systems. In order to generate rules in the learning phase, we compare two methods: the Wang-Mendel method based on space partition and the subtractive clustering method. The learning data are information about past inflation and consumers' opinions as expressed in surveys. The system is built and tested on data from January 2002 to June 2019 for non-euro member states of the EU. The fuzzy rules-based system returns results that outperform a benchmark—the standard quantification procedure—in terms of correlation with a raw approximation of consumer expectations, which is survey balance statistics. The results are robust regarding the benchmark choice. We find the method more promising for economies with lower stability, as it gives more room for the training phase of the algorithm application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The establishment of new value chains raises expectations in economic and social benefits. To determine whether these expectations can be fulfilled or whether there are also negative consequences, social aspects should be assessed as early as the R&D phase. Potential social impacts can be assessed with the help of a social life cycle assessment (SLCA). A common problem in SLCA studies is the large number of social aspects. Thus, it is important to prioritize the most relevant aspects. Scholars agree that socioeconomic indicators should not be selected on a purely intuitive and common sense basis and that a standardized approach is missing. A three-step process has been developed to identify the most vulnerable and relevant social aspects. These three steps were implemented into a case study to empirically test the method. Short-rotation-coppice as an alternative form of agricultural dendromass production is one possibility to obtain wood resources for the processing of bio-based products. The use of agricultural land for dendromass production promises additional income for the region's farmers and job opportunities for the local population. The extant literature shows that the most frequently addressed impacts are related to workers' health and safety aspects. The outcome of this study aims to support future research by identifying an appropriate approach for the selection of indicators in SLCA. For studies with a similar focus, the proposed set of indicators can be used as a framework in itself or serve as a basis for the choice of relevant social indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meeting performance expectations of tenants without sacrificing economic benefit is a tough challenge for cloud providers. We propose a data replication strategy to simultaneously satisfy both the performance and provider profit. Response time of database queries is estimated with the consideration of parallel execution. If the estimated response time is not acceptable, bottlenecks are identified in the query plan. Data replication is realized to resolve the bottlenecks. Data placement is heuristically performed in a way to satisfy query response times at a minimal cost for the provider. We demonstrate the validity of our strategy in a performance evaluation study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whether economic growth improves subjective well-being has been under debate. Studies that find such an association also document heterogeneity between countries in the magnitude of the relationship. We test a theoretical model in which economic growth enhances subjective well-being only when a large share of the population derives their subjective well-being from relational goods with positive externalities instead of positional goods with negative externalities. The choice between relational and positional goods is determined by individuals' relational abilities and expectations which we operationalize as attachment security. We specifically test whether economic growth improves subjective well-being more in those countries where the average attachment security is higher. We find support for the hypothesis in the Eurobarometer data but less support in the World Values Survey data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much attention has recently been paid to comparative work in the public and private sectors looking at work values, motivations, and the impact of government reform movements in organizations. Several studies have compared the public and private sectors in the dimension of values; but none have questioned the popular assumption that nonprofit and public managers share the same or a similar set of values or the value expectations they have for each other. This paper reports on the results of an empirical survey of public and nonprofit managers that compares their individual democratic, ethical, and professional values. In brief, the results lend strong support to the assumption that nonprofit employees share the same value set as their public sector counterparts; but their value sets do have statistically significant differences in the perceived level of importance of altruism, generosity, and individualism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The existing control charts with estimated parameters have been widely studied from the perspective of the average run length (ARL). However, when parameters are estimated, the shape and the skewness of the run length distribution change with the magnitude of the mean shift, the number of phase I samples and sample sizes. Therefore, in this paper, we argue that the median run length (MRL) and the average sample size (ASS) have several advantages over the traditional ARL to effectively evaluate the performance of the double-sampling (DS) $$ \overline{X} $$ chart with estimated parameters. Precisely, by correctly accounting for parameter estimation and using the expectation by conditioning approach, we establish a theoretical method for the run length of the DS $$ \overline{X} $$ chart in phase II process monitoring. Also, the MRL-based DS $$ \overline{X} $$ chart with estimated parameters is optimally designed using an optimization algorithm, aiming at minimizing the in-control ASS by subjecting to both the desired in-control and out-of-control MRLs. Most importantly, the proposed optimal MRL-based chart with estimated parameters not only employs a smaller sample size on average, when the process is in-control, but also has a lower false-alarm rate and provides a clearer interpretation to practitioners. The proposed optimal chart with estimated parameters is illustrated with some real data from a tape-and-reel packing process used in a manufacturing company. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Savings of guest workers as well as of undocumented migrants represent important inflows of foreign exchange for some developing countries. This paper compares the saving behavior of these two types of migrants, assuming that the former are authorized to work abroad for a specific period of time, while the latter can stay until apprehended and deported by the immigration authorities. Due to the risk of deportation, the saving rate of an illegal immigrant is found to be initially above that of a documented migrant. This precautionary saving phenomenon is, however, short-lived. A key finding of the paper is that the total repatriated assets of an illegal migrant are always lower than those of a documented worker, provided that their duration of stay abroad is identical. This is because the undocumented migrant's saving rate falls over time as her expected lifetime earnings are adjusted upwards every day that she avoids apprehension. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several challenges, external and internal, to the identity and position of civil society organizations exist today. Organizations may be tempted or coerced into closer cooperation with the state. There are also incentives to become more market oriented. This article deals with such struggles in Swedish study associations and how these organizations attempt to gain legitimacy. The tradition of the organization is an important legitimating aspect and so is efficiency. These two aspects can complement each other but may also collide. The article demonstrates how civil society organizations handle an influx of market logics and trends of professionalization when these clash with a civil society identity. The findings indicate that different isomorphic processes are at work. Cultural resources are used to handle conflicting myths, leading to varied discursive strategies and incidences of decoupling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]