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Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are becoming increasingly common, with devastating ecosystem impacts. However, MHW understanding has almost exclusively relied on sea surface temperature with limited knowledge about their subsurface characteristics. Here we estimate global MHWs from the surface to 2,000 m depth, covering the period 1993–2019, and explore biodiversity exposure to their effects. We find that MHWs are typically more intense in the subsurface at 50–200 m and their duration increases up to twofold with depth, although with large spatial variability linked to different oceanographic conditions. Cumulative intensity (a thermal stress proxy) was highest in the upper 250 m, exposing subsurface biodiversity to MHW effects. This can be particularly concerning for up to 22% of the ocean, where high cumulative intensity overlapped the warm range edge of species distributions, thus being more sensitive to thermal stress. Subsurface MHWs can hence drive biodiversity patterns, with consequent effects on ecological interactions and ecosystem processes.

The relative importance of deterministic and neutral processes in shaping assembly of communities remains controversial, partly due to inconsistencies between theoretical, empirical, and experimental studies. We investigate the interplay between local (productivity) and regional (size of species pool) assembly mechanisms in communities of phytoplankton and zooplankton in 72 experimental microcosms. Local environmental conditions were manipulated by varying the level of nutrients in the water (ambient, low, high). The size of regional species pool colonizing each microcosm was manipulated by mixing phytoplankton and zooplankton species from different numbers of source ponds (n = 2, 4, 8 and 16). Our results show that local communities assembled differently depending on the numbers of sources available for colonization. Microcosms with larger species pools supported greater numbers of species. In contrast, the effects of productivity led to different results across trophic groups. Phytoplankton communities were, on average, more diverse on more productive treatments, while zooplankton communities were more diverse under less productive treatments. Phytoplankton and zooplankton communities responded to both sources of variation, although the size of species pool was a better predictor of communities’ composition than the local effects of productivity. These results reinforce the view that community assembly is influenced by the interplay of both local and regional drivers but that the relative importance of these factors varies with trophic groups.

Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change most often rely on ecological niche models, in which characterizations of climate suitability are highly contingent on the species range data used. If ranges are far from equilibrium under current environmental conditions, for instance owing to local extinctions in otherwise suitable areas, modelled environmental suitability can be truncated, leading to biased estimates of the effects of climate change. Here we examine the impact of such biases on estimated risks from climate change by comparing models of the distribution of North American mammals based on current ranges with ranges accounting for historical information on species ranges. We find that estimated future diversity, almost everywhere, except in coastal Alaska, is drastically underestimated unless the full historical distribution of the species is included in the models. Consequently forecasts of climate change impacts on biodiversity for many clades are unlikely to be reliable without acknowledging anthropogenic influences on contemporary ranges.

How climate affects species distributions is a longstanding question receiving renewed interest owing to the need to predict the impacts of global warming on biodiversity. Is climate change forcing species to live near their critical thermal limits? Are these limits likely to change through natural selection? These and other important questions can be addressed with models relating geographical distributions of species with climate data, but inferences made with these models are highly contingent on non-climatic factors such as biotic interactions. Improved understanding of climate change effects on species will require extensive analysis of thermal physiological traits, but such data are both scarce and scattered. To overcome current limitations, we created the GlobTherm database. The database contains experimentally derived species’ thermal tolerance data currently comprising over 2,000 species of terrestrial, freshwater, intertidal and marine multicellular algae, plants, fungi, and animals. The GlobTherm database will be maintained and curated by iDiv with the aim to keep expanding it, and enable further investigations on the effects of climate on the distribution of life on Earth.

Coastal lobsters support important fsheries all over the world, but there is evidence that climate-induced changes may jeopardize some stocks. Here we present the frst global forecasts of changes in coastal lobster species distribution under climate change, using an ensemble of ecological niche models (ENMs). Global changes in richness were projected for 125 coastal lobster species for the end of the century, using a stabilization scenario (4.5 RCP). We compared projected changes in diversity with lobster fsheries data and found that losses in suitable habitat for coastal lobster species were mainly projected in areas with high commercial fshing interest, with species projected to contract their climatic envelope between 40 and 100%. Higher losses of spiny lobsters are projected in the coasts of wider Caribbean/Brazil, eastern Africa and Indo-Pacifc region, areas with several directed fsheries and aquacultures, while clawed lobsters are projected to shifts their envelope to northern latitudes likely afecting the North European, North American and Canadian fsheries. Fisheries represent an important resource for local and global economies and understanding how they might be afected by climate change scenarios is paramount when developing specifc or regional management strategies.

[Context]: Species are expected to shift their distributions in response to global environmental changes and additional protected areas are needed to encompass the corresponding changes in the distributions of their habitats. Conservation policies are likely to become obsolete unless they integrate the potential impacts of climate and land-use change on biodiversity., [Objectives]: We identify conservation priority areas for current and future projected distributions of Iberian bird species. We then investigate the extent to which global change informed priority areas are: (i) covered by existing protected area networks (national protected areas and Natura 2000); (ii) threatened by agricultural or urban land-use changes., [Methods]: We use outputs of species distributions models fitted with climatic data as inputs in spatial prioritization tools to identify conservation priority areas for 168 bird species. We use projections of land-use change to then discriminate between threatened and non-threatened priority areas., [Results]: 19% of the priority areas for birds are covered by national protected areas and 23% are covered by Natura 2000 sites. The spatial mismatch between protected area networks and priority areas for birds is projected to increase with climate change. But there are opportunities to improve the protection of birds under climate change, as half of the priority areas are currently neither protected nor in conflict with urban or agricultural land-uses., [Conclusions]: We identify critical areas for bird conservation both under current and climate change conditions, and propose that they could guide the establishment of new conservation areas across the Iberian Peninsula complementing existing protected areas.

Oceanic islands host a high proportion of the world’s endemic species. Many such species are at risk of extinction owing to habitat degradation and loss, biological invasions and other threats, but little is known about the effects of climate change on island native biodiversity. The Azorean archipelago provides a unique opportunity to study species-climate-change relationships. We used ensemble forecasting to evaluate the current and future distribution of well-studied endemic and native bryophytes (19 species), endemic vascular plants (59 species) and endemic arthropods (128 species), for two of the largest Azorean Islands, Terceira and São Miguel. Using a Regional Climate Model (CIELO), and assuming the extreme scenario RCP8.5, we examined changes in the potential distributions of the species and possible loss of climate space for them. Models projected that 23 species (11 %) could lose all adequate climate on either one or both islands. Five additional species were projected to lose ≥90 % of climate space. In total, 90 % of the species were projected to lose climate space: 79 % of bryophytes, 93 % of vascular plants and 91 % of arthropods. We also found for vascular plants and arthropods a tendency for upward shift in altitude in their suitable climate space, while for bryophytes the shift was towards the coastal areas. Our results have profound implications for future conservation priorities on islands, such as for the redrawing of conservation borders of current protected areas.

The study of species co-occurrences has been central in community ecology since the foundation of the discipline. Co-occurrence data are, nevertheless, a neglected source of information to model species distributions and biogeographers are still debating about the impact of biotic interactions on species distributions across geographical scales. We argue that a theory of species co-occurrence in ecological networks is needed to better inform interpretation of co-occurrence data, to formulate hypotheses for different community assembly mechanisms, and to extend the analysis of species distributions currently focused on the relationship between occurrences and abiotic factors. The main objective of this paper is to provide the first building blocks of a general theory for species co-occurrences. We formalize the problem with definitions of the different probabilities that are studied in the context of co-occurrence analyses. We analyze three species interactions modules and conduct multi-species simulations in order to document five principles influencing the associations between species within an ecological network: (i) direct interactions impact pairwise co-occurrence, (ii) indirect interactions impact pairwise co-occurrence, (iii) pairwise co-occurrence rarely are symmetric, (iv) the strength of an association decreases with the length of the shortest path between two species, and (v) the strength of an association decreases with the number of interactions a species is experiencing. Our analyses reveal the difficulty of the interpretation of species interactions from co-occurrence data. We discuss whether the inference of the structure of interaction networks is feasible from co-occurrence data. We also argue that species distributions models could benefit from incorporating conditional probabilities of interactions within the models as an attempt to take into account the contribution of biotic interactions to shaping individual distributions of species.

Invasive plants can have different effects on ecosystem functioning and on the provision of ecosystem services, with the direction and magnitude of such effects depending on the service and ecosystem being considered, but also on the life strategies of the invaders. Strategies can influence invasiveness, but also key processes of host ecosystems. To address the combined effects of these various factors, we developed a methodological framework to identify areas of possible conflict between ecosystem services and alien invasive plants, considering interactions between landscape invasibility and species invasiveness. Our framework combines multi-model inference, efficient techniques to map ecosystem services, and life strategies. The latter provides a functional link between invasion, functional changes, and potential provision of services by invaded ecosystems. The framework was applied to a region in Portugal, for which we could successfully predict current patterns of plant invasion, of ecosystem service provision, and of potential conflict between alien species richness and the potential provision of selected services. Potential conflicts were identified for all combinations of plant strategy and ecosystem service, with an emphasis on carbon sequestration, water regulation, and wood production. Lower levels of conflict were obtained between invasive plant strategies and the habitat for biodiversity supporting service. The value of the proposed framework for landscape management and planning is discussed with emphasis on anticipation of conflicts, mitigation of negative impacts, and facilitation of positive effects of plant invasions on ecosystems and their services. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.