1. Modeling non-linear changes in an urban setting: From pro-environmental affordances to responses in behavior, emissions and air quality.
- Author
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Hulkkonen, Mira, Kaaronen, Roope O., Kokkola, Harri, Mielonen, Tero, Clusius, Petri, Xavier, Carlton, Hellén, Heidi, Niemi, Jarkko V., and Malila, Jussi
- Subjects
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HUMAN behavior , *GREENHOUSE gas mitigation , *URBANIZATION , *PARTICULATE matter , *HUMAN evolution , *URBAN pollution - Abstract
Interactions in urban environment were investigated using a multidisciplinary model combination, with focus on traffic, emissions and atmospheric particles. An agent-based model was applied to simulate the evolution of unsustainable human behavior (usage of combustion-based personal vehicles) as a function of pro-environmental affordances (opportunities for sustainable choices). Scenarios regarding changes in multi-pollutant emissions were derived, and the non-linear implications to atmospheric particles were simulated with a box model. Based on the results for a Nordic city, increasing pro-environmental affordances by 10%, 50% or 100% leads to emission reductions of 15%, 30% and 40% within 2 years. To reduce ambient particle mass, emissions from traffic should decrease by > 15%, while the lung deposited surface area decreases in all scenarios ( - 23 % , - 32 % and - 36 % , correspondingly). The presented case is representative of one season, but the approach is generic and applicable to simulating a full year, given meteorological and pollution data that reflects seasonal variation. This work emphasizes the necessity to consider feedback mechanisms and non-linearities in both human behavior and atmospheric processes, when predicting the outcomes of changes in an urban system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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