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We present a model of butterfly abundance on transects in England. The model indicates a significant role for climate, but the direction of association is counter to expectation: butterfly population density is higher on sites with a cooler climate. However, the effect is highly heterogeneous, with one in five species displaying a net positive association. We use this model to project the population-level effects of climate warming for the year 2080, using a medium emissions scenario. The results suggest that most populations and species will decline markedly, but that the total number of butterflies will increase as communities become dominated by a few common species. In particular, Maniola jurtina is predicted to make up nearly half of all butterflies on UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS) transects by 2080. These results contradict the accepted wisdom that most insect populations will grow as the climate becomes warmer. Indeed, our predictions contrast strongly with those derived from inter-annual variation in abundance, emphasizing that we lack a mechanistic understanding about the factors driving butterfly population dynamics over large spatial and temporal scales. Our study underscores the difficulty of predicting future population trends and reveals the naivety of simple space-for-time substitutions, which our projections share with species distribution modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK Government has set targets for biodiversity conservation in England based on several indicators, including the status of protected areas [e.g. Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs)]. Specifically, the Government aims to achieve favourable condition [defined by Common Standards Monitoring (CSM)] on 95% by area of SSSIs by 2010. SSSIs are important for threatened butterflies and management to achieve favourable condition will play a key role in determining future population levels of these high-profile insects. Because only notified features of SSSIs are considered within CSM, we investigated the level of notification for three threatened butterflies. We found that these species were notified at only 15-33% of SSSIs where they occurred; though most site managers did manage for them under broader site conservation objectives. We investigated the relationship between SSSI condition status and population trend for eight butterfly species of conservation concern to assess the benefit to butterflies of sites attaining favourable condition status. The majority (80%) of population trends on SSSIs in favourable condition were positive, suggesting an overall beneficial impact of SSSI management. However, four of the eight species maintained lower populations at favourable condition SSSIs than at sites in one of the unfavourable condition categories. We suggest that current condition assessment based chiefly on notified vegetation communities lacks the sensitivity to identify the complex habitat conditions for these (mosaic) species. As butterflies are good indictors for a wide range of invertebrates, many species requiring fine-scale habitat heterogeneity may be at risk from the Government's target. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]