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Industrial policies pursued in many developing countries in the 1950s–1970s largely failed while the industrial policies of the Asian Miracles succeeded. We argue that a key factor of success is industrial policy with export orientation in contrast to import substitution. Exporting encouraged competition, economies of scale, innovation, and local integration and provided market signals to policymakers. Even in a large market such as India, import substitution policies in the automotive industry failed because of micromanagement and misaligned incentives. We also analyze the risk tradeoffs involved in various industrial policy strategies and their implications on the twenty-first-century industrial policies. While state interventions may be needed to develop some new capabilities and industries, trade protectionism is neither a necessary nor a sufficient tool and will most likely be counterproductive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the effect of R&D subsidies on firms' innovation by ownership, industry, and firm size using German firm-level data. The impact of R&D subsidies is heterogeneous across industries for multinational corporations (MNCs) and domestic firms. This heterogeneity is robust using various estimators. Domestic firms have a larger response in R&D spending in low-tech and medium-term manufacturing, while the effect in high-tech manufacturing is larger for both domestic and foreign MNCs. In knowledge-intensive services and technological services, the response of domestic firms and in some cases foreign MNCs, is greater than that of domestic MNCs. In terms of patents, foreign MNC subsidiaries tend to have a larger count in high-tech manufacturing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the impact of macroeconomic shocks on US public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a primary balance, or austerity, shock, the debt ratio initially declines but at a cost of lower growth. The debt ratio then rises to its pre-shock path, suggesting the austerity shock could be self-defeating. An inflation shock reduces the debt ratio initially, while a positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. Our specification, properly incorporating the debt equation, produces different debt impulse responses and forecasts from VAR models either excluding debt or including debt linearly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]