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We predicted water-octanol partition coefficients for the molecules in the SAMPL7 challenge with explicit solvent classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Water hydration free energies and octanol solvation free energies were calculated with a windowed alchemical free energy approach. Three commonly used force fields (AMBER GAFF, CHARMM CGenFF, OPLS-AA) were tested. Special emphasis was placed on converging all simulations, using a criterion developed for the SAMPL6 challenge. In aggregate, over 1000 μ s of simulations were performed, with some free energy windows remaining not fully converged even after 1 μ s of simulation time. Nevertheless, the amount of sampling produced log P ow estimates with a precision of 0.1 log units or better for converged simulations. Despite being probably as fully sampled as can expected and is feasible, the agreement with experiment remained modest for all force fields, with no force field performing better than 1.6 in root mean squared error. Overall, our results indicate that a large amount of sampling is necessary to produce precise log P ow predictions for the SAMPL7 compounds and that high precision does not necessarily lead to high accuracy. Thus, fundamental problems remain to be solved for physics-based log P ow predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

All-atom molecular dynamics simulations with stratified alchemical free energy calculations were used to predict the octanol-water partition coefficient log P ow of eleven small molecules as part of the SAMPL6- log P blind prediction challenge using four different force field parametrizations: standard OPLS-AA with transferable charges, OPLS-AA with non-transferable CM1A charges, AMBER/GAFF, and CHARMM/CGenFF. Octanol parameters for OPLS-AA, GAFF and CHARMM were validated by comparing the density as a function of temperature, the chemical potential, and the hydration free energy to experimental values. The partition coefficients were calculated from the solvation free energy for the compounds in water and pure ("dry") octanol or "wet" octanol with 27 mol% water dissolved. Absolute solvation free energies were computed by thermodynamic integration (TI) and the multistate Bennett acceptance ratio with uncorrelated samples from data generated by an established protocol using 5-ns windowed alchemical free energy perturbation (FEP) calculations with the Gromacs molecular dynamics package. Equilibration of sets of FEP simulations was quantified by a new measure of convergence based on the analysis of forward and time-reversed trajectories. The accuracy of the log P ow predictions was assessed by descriptive statistical measures such as the root mean square error (RMSE) of the data set compared to the experimental values. Discarding the first 1 ns of each 5-ns window as an equilibration phase had a large effect on the GAFF data, where it improved the RMSE by up to 0.8 log units, while the effect for other data sets was smaller or marginally worsened the agreement. Overall, CGenFF gave the best prediction with RMSE 1.2 log units, although for only eight molecules because the current CGenFF workflow for Gromacs does not generate files for certain halogen-containing compounds. Over all eleven compounds, GAFF gave an RMSE of 1.5. The effect of using a mixed water/octanol solvent slightly decreased the accuracy for CGenFF and GAFF and slightly increased it for OPLS-AA. The GAFF and OPLS-AA results displayed a systematic error where molecules were too hydrophobic whereas CGenFF appeared to be more balanced, at least on this small data set. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]