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Background: Wildfires are recognized as an important ecological component of larch-dominated boreal forests in eastern Siberia. However, long-term fire-vegetation dynamics in this unique environment are poorly understood. Recent paleoecological research suggests that intensifying fire regimes may induce millennial-scale shifts in forest structure and composition. This may, in turn, result in positive feedback on intensifying wildfires and permafrost degradation, apart from threatening human livelihoods. Most common fire-vegetation models do not explicitly include detailed individual-based tree population dynamics, but a focus on patterns of forest structure emerging from interactions among individual trees may provide a beneficial perspective on the impacts of changing fire regimes in eastern Siberia. To simulate these impacts on forest structure at millennial timescales, we apply the individual-based, spatially explicit vegetation model LAVESI-FIRE, expanded with a new fire module. Satellite-based fire observations along with fieldwork data were used to inform the implementation of wildfire occurrence and adjust model parameters. Results: Simulations of annual forest development and wildfire activity at a study site in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) since the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 20,000 years BP) highlight the variable impacts of fire regimes on forest structure throughout time. Modeled annual fire probability and subsequent burned area in the Holocene compare well with a local reconstruction of charcoal influx in lake sediments. Wildfires can be followed by different forest regeneration pathways, depending on fire frequency and intensity and the pre-fire forest conditions. We find that medium-intensity wildfires at fire return intervals of 50 years or more benefit the dominance of fire-resisting Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr.), while stand-replacing fires tend to enable the establishment of evergreen conifers. Apart from post-fire mortality, wil

In Central Yakutia (Siberia) livelihoods of local communities depend on alaas (thermokarst depression) landscapes and the lakes within. Development and dynamics of these alaas lakes are closely connected to climate change, permafrost thawing, catchment conditions, and land use. To reconstruct lake development throughout the Holocene we analyze sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) and biogeochemistry from a sediment core from Lake Satagay, spanning the last c. 10,800 calibrated years before present (cal yrs BP). SedaDNA of diatoms and macrophytes and microfossil diatom analysis reveal lake formation earlier than 10,700 cal yrs BP. The sedaDNA approach detected 42 amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) of diatom taxa, one ASV of Eustigmatophyceae (Nannochloropsis), and 12 ASVs of macrophytes. We relate diatom and macrophyte community changes to climate-driven shifts in water level and mineral and organic input, which result in variable water conductivity, in-lake productivity, and sediment deposition. We detect a higher lake level and water conductivity in the Early Holocene (c. 10,700–7000 cal yrs BP) compared to other periods, supported by the dominance of Stephanodiscus sp. and Stuckenia pectinata. Further climate warming towards the Mid-Holocene (7000–4700 cal yrs BP) led to a shallowing of Lake Satagay, an increase of the submerged macrophyte Ceratophyllum, and a decline of planktonic diatoms. In the Late Holocene (c. 4700 cal yrs BP–present) stable shallow water conditions are confirmed by small fragilarioid and staurosiroid diatoms dominating the lake. Lake Satagay has not yet reached the final stage of alaas development, but satellite imagery shows an intensification of anthropogenic land use, which in combination with future warming will likely result in a rapid desiccation of the lake.