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Background: Long-term farmland abandonment has increased fuel build-up in many Euro-Mediterranean mountainous regions. The high fuel hazard in these landscapes, combined with ongoing climate change, is increasing the frequency of extreme wildfires, thus altering contemporary fire regimes. Mitigating the loss of the landscape's capacity to regulate large and intense fires is crucial to prevent future harmful effects of fires. As such, effective strategies to manage these fire-prone landscapes are needed. Yet, further understanding of their performance under global change scenarios is required. This study assessed the effects of fire-smart management strategies on future landscape dynamics, fire regulation capacity (FRC), and fire regime in a Mediterranean fire-prone mountainous landscape in Portugal (30,650 ha) undergoing long-term land abandonment and climate change scenarios. For that, we applied the LANDIS-II model under climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and long-term farmland abandonment (2020–2050) according to three fire-smart management strategies focused on fire prevention compared with a business-as-usual (BAU) strategy based on fire suppression. Results: Future fire activity and land dynamics resulted in changes that fostered landscape heterogeneity and fragmentation and favoured fire-adapted forests and agroforestry systems while decreasing the dominance of shrublands and croplands. FRC decreased over time, particularly under RCP 8.5 and the BAU strategy. In turn, fire-smart strategies better prevented large and intense fires than the BAU strategy, but their effectiveness decreased under RCP 8.5. The loss of FRC resulted in increased burned area and fire frequency, which predicts a shift from contemporary fire regimes but more markedly under RCP 8.5 and in the BAU strategy. Conclusions: Fire-smart strategies outperformed BAU in averting current fire regime intensification. Merging forest- and silvopasture-based management is the most promising approach in taming the effects of climate and farmland abandonment on future fire activity. Our study underlines that planning and management policies in fire-prone Mediterranean mountain landscapes must integrate fire-smart strategies to decrease landscape fuel hazard and buffer the impact of global change on future fire regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Current shifts in biodiversity are driven by multiple processes of environmental and landscape change. Particularly, land use/land cover (LU/LC) dynamics are among the major drivers of biodiversity loss worldwide.Objectives: In this study we aim to explore the applicability of a new modelling framework to predict top predators' responses to LU/LC changes.Methods: The framework integrates remote-sensing based predictors, statistical inference, stochastic-dynamic simulations and spatial projections in a common and interactive approach. From an ecological modelling perspective, the main innovation of our approach lies on the integration of (1) biomass of birds of prey as an upper trophic indicator of the community characteristics that emerge from the habitat quality across multiple scales of organization and (2) fine-scale biophysical attributes to add a new level of understanding about the role of local LU/LC drivers influencing those emergent biodiversity patterns.Results: Based on species data from published atlases this approach allowed transposing species biomass to finer resolutions, overcoming the lack of detailed information for the study area. Our demonstrative case study revealed a disruptive effect of ongoing LU/LC changes in the spatio-temporal distribution of top predators' biomass, suggesting the possibility of an emergent disturbance pattern in habitat suitability and community stability. Comparative analysis between simulations and independent field data revealed a promising model performance.Conclusions: Our modelling approach highlights the importance of integrating local LU/LC functional dynamics to predict key trophic' responses, considered as pertinent ecological indicators for biodiversity management under realistic' future changing regional scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]