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European continental shelf seas have experienced intense warming over the past 30 years. In the North Sea, fish have been comprehensively monitored throughout this period and resulting data provide a unique record of changes in distribution and abundance in response to climate change. We use these data to demonstrate the remarkable power of generalized additive models (GAMs), trained on data earlier in the time series, to reliably predict trends in distribution and abundance in later years. Then, challenging process-based models that predict substantial and ongoing poleward shifts of cold-water species, we find that GAMs coupled with climate projections predict future distributions of demersal (bottom-dwelling) fish species over the next 50 years will be strongly constrained by availability of habitat of suitable depth. This will lead to pronounced changes in community structure, species interactions and commercial fisheries, unless individual acclimation or population-level evolutionary adaptations enable fish to tolerate warmer conditions or move to previously uninhabitable locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate-induced coral bleaching is among the greatest current threats to coral reefs, causing widespread loss of live coral cover. Conditions under which reefs bounce back from bleaching events or shift from coral to algal dominance are unknown, making it difficult to predict and plan for differing reef responses under climate change. Here we document and predict long-term reef responses to a major climate-induced coral bleaching event that caused unprecedented region-wide mortality of Indo-Pacific corals. Following loss of >90% live coral cover, 12 of 21 reefs recovered towards pre-disturbance live coral states, while nine reefs underwent regime shifts to fleshy macroalgae. Functional diversity of associated reef fish communities shifted substantially following bleaching, returning towards pre-disturbance structure on recovering reefs, while becoming progressively altered on regime shifting reefs. We identified threshold values for a range of factors that accurately predicted ecosystem response to the bleaching event. Recovery was favoured when reefs were structurally complex and in deeper water, when density of juvenile corals and herbivorous fishes was relatively high and when nutrient loads were low. Whether reefs were inside no-take marine reserves had no bearing on ecosystem trajectory. Although conditions governing regime shift or recovery dynamics were diverse, pre-disturbance quantification of simple factors such as structural complexity and water depth accurately predicted ecosystem trajectories. These findings foreshadow the likely divergent but predictable outcomes for reef ecosystems in response to climate change, thus guiding improved management and adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Size-based food-web models, which focus on body size rather than species identity, capture the generalist and transient feeding interactions in most marine ecosystems and are well-supported by data. Here, we develop a size-based model that incorporates dynamic interactions between marine benthic (detritus-based) and pelagic (primary producer based) pathways to investigate how the coupling of these pathways affects food web stability and resilience. All model configurations produced stable steady-state size spectra. Resilience was measured by the return speed obtained from local stability analysis. Return times following large perturbations away from steady-state were also measured. Resilience varied nonlinearly with both predator and detrital coupling, and high resilience came from predators (1) feeding entirely in the slow benthic zone or (2) feeding across the two energy pathways, with most food coming from the fast pelagic pathway. When most of the energy flowed through the pelagic pathway, resilience was positively related to turnover rate. When most of the energy flowed through the benthic pathway, resilience was negatively related to turnover rate. Analysis of the effects of large perturbations revealed that resilience for pelagic ecosystems depended on the nature of the perturbation and the degree of benthic-pelagic coupling. Areas with very little or no benthic-pelagic coupling (e.g. deep seas or highly stratified water columns) may return more quickly following pulses of detrital fallout or primary production but could be much less resilient to the effects of human-induced mortality (harvesting). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity indicators provide a vital window on the state of the planet, guiding policy development and management. The most widely adopted marine indicator is mean trophic level (MTL) from catches, intended to detect shifts from high-trophic-level predators to low-trophic-level invertebrates and plankton-feeders. This indicator underpins reported trends in human impacts, declining when predators collapse ('fishing down marine food webs') and when low-trophic-level fisheries expand ('fishing through marine food webs'). The assumption is that catch MTL measures changes in ecosystem MTL and biodiversity. Here we combine model predictions with global assessments of MTL from catches, trawl surveys and fisheries stock assessments and find that catch MTL does not reliably predict changes in marine ecosystems. Instead, catch MTL trends often diverge from ecosystem MTL trends obtained from surveys and assessments. In contrast to previous findings of rapid declines in catch MTL, we observe recent increases in catch, survey and assessment MTL. However, catches from most trophic levels are rising, which can intensify fishery collapses even when MTL trends are stable or increasing. To detect fishing impacts on marine biodiversity, we recommend greater efforts to measure true abundance trends for marine species, especially those most vulnerable to fishing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stable isotope data are often used to assess diet, trophic level, trophic niche width and the extent of omnivory. Notwithstanding ongoing discussions about the value of these approaches, variations in isotopic signatures among individuals depend on inherent variability as well as differences in feeding habitats. Remarkably, the relative contributions of diet variation and inherent variability to differences in δ15N and δ13C among individuals have not been quantified for the same species at the same life history stages, and inherent variability has been ignored or assumed. We quantified inherent variability in δ13C and δ15N among individuals of a marine fish (the European sea bass, Dicentrarchus labrax) reared in a controlled environment on a diet of constant isotopic composition and compared it with variability in δ13C and δ15N among individuals from wild bass populations. The analysis showed that inherent variability among reared individuals on a controlled diet was equivalent to a large proportion of the observed variability among wild individuals and, therefore, that inherent variability should be measured to establish baseline variability in wild populations before any assumptions are made about the influence of diet. Given that inherent variability is known to be dependent on species, life history stage and the environment, our results show that it should be quantified on a case-by-case basis if diet studies are intended to provide absolute assessments of dietary habits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1999 the epibenthic fauna of the North Sea was investigated using the 3 quarter 'International Bottom Trawl Survey' of five European countries. Altogether 241 stations were sampled covering 143 ICES rectangles. The objectives of the project were (i) to analyse epibenthic diversity patterns in the North Sea, (ii) to identify the spatial distribution of faunal communities and (iii) to relate environmental factors as well as fishing effort to species diversity. Epibenthic fauna was clearly divided between the southern North Sea and the central-northern North Sea, roughly along the 50 m depth line. The separation was based on an overall higher number of species in the central and northern North Sea and a change in the species composition from north to south. Sessile fauna including erect, branching species like bryozoans and hydrozoans were particularly diverse along a corridor in the central-northern North Sea between 56° and 58°N, coinciding with the area between the 50 m and 100 m depth line. Cluster analysis, based on the structure of the community, confirmed the north-south gradient found for species diversity. Separation of clusters was driven to a great extent by species occurring predominantly or exclusively north of the 50 m contour line. Few species were exclusive to the south, but a number of scavenging species were found here more frequently and in higher numbers. Depth was positively correlated with the diversity of free-living fauna, whereas the type of sediment showed no significant relationship with variations in numbers of species. Beam-trawling effort was negatively correlated with the diversity of sessile fauna. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bottom trawling causes physical disturbance to sediments particularly in shelf areas. The disturbance due to trawling is most significant in deeper areas with softer sediments where levels of natural disturbance due to wave and tidal action are low. In heavily fished areas, trawls may impact the same area of seabed more than four times per year. A single pass of a beam trawl, the heaviest gear routinely used in shelf sea fisheries, can kill 5-65% of the resident fauna and mix the top few cm of sediment. We expect that sediment community function, carbon mineralisation and biogeochemical fluxes will be strongly affected by trawling activity because the physical effects of trawling are equivalent to those of an extreme bioturbator, and yet, unlike bioturbating macrofauna, trawling does not directly contribute to community metabolism. We used an existing box-model of a generalised soft sediment system to examine the effects of trawling disturbance on carbon mineralisation and chemical concentrations. We contrasted the effects of a natural scenario, where bioturbation is a function of macrobenthos biomass, with an anthropogenic impact scenario where physical disturbance results from trawling rather than the action of bioturbating macrofauna. Simulation results suggest that the effects of low levels of trawling disturbance will be similar to those of natural bioturbators but that high levels of trawling disturbance prevent the modelled system from reaching equilibrium due to large carbon fluxes between oxic and anoxic carbon compartments. The presence of macrobenthos in the natural disturbance scenario allowed sediment chemical storage and fluxes to reach equilibrium. This is because the macrobenthos are important carbon consumers in the system whose presence reduces the magnitude of available carbon fluxes. In soft sediment systems, where the level physical disturbance due to waves and tides is low, model results suggest that intensive trawling disturbance could cause large fluctuations in benthic chemical fluxes and storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine reserves (no-take zones) are widely recommended asconservation and fishery management tools. One potential benefitof marine reserves is that they can reduce fishing mortality.This can lead to increases in the abundance of spawners,providing insurance against recruitment failure and maintainingor enhancing yields in fished areas. This paper considers thefactors that influence recovery following marine reserveprotection, describes patterns of recovery in numbers andbiomass, and suggests how recovery rates can be predicted.Population recovery is determined by initial population size, theintrinsic rate of population increase r, and the degree ofcompensation (increases in recruits per spawner as spawnerabundance falls) or depensation (lower than expected recruitmentat low abundance, Allee effect) in the spawner-recruitrelationship. Within a reserve, theoretical recovery rates arefurther modified by metapopulation structure and the success ofindividual recruitment events. Recovery also depends on theextent of reductions in fishing mortality ( F) as determined bythe relationship between patterns of movement, migration, anddensity-dependent habitat use (buffer effect) in relation to thesize, shape and location of the reserve. The effects ofreductions in F on population abundance have been calculatedusing a variety of models that incorporate transfer rates betweenthe reserve and fished areas, fishing mortality outside thereserve and life history parameters of the population. Thesemodels give useful indications of increases in production andbiomass (as yield per recruit and spawners per recruitrespectively) due to protection, but do not address recruitment.Many reserves are very small in relation to the geographicalrange of fish or invertebrate populations. In these reserves itmay be impossible to distinguish recovery due to populationgrowth from that due to redistribution. Mean rates of recoverycan be predicted from r, but the methods are data intensive. Thisis ironic when marine reserves are often favoured for managementor conservation in data-poor situations where conventional stockassessment is impossible. In these data-poor situations, it maybe possible to predict recovery rates from very low populationsizes by using maximum body size or age at maturity as simplecorrelates of the intrinsic rate of natural increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]