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Recent variability in West African monsoon rainfall (WAMR) has been shown to be influenced by multiple ocean–atmosphere modes, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. How these modes will change in response to long term forcing is less well understood. Here we use four transient simulations driven by changes in orbital forcing and greenhouse gas concentrations over the past 6000 years to examine the relationship between West African monsoon rainfall multiscale variability and changes in the modes associated with this variability. All four models show a near linear decline in monsoon rainfall over the past 6000 years in response to the gradual weakening of the interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperatures. The only indices that show a long-term trend are those associated with the strengthening of the El Niño Southern Oscillation from the mid-Holocene onwards. At the interannual-to-decadal timescale, WAMR variability is largely influenced by Pacific–Atlantic – Mediterranean Sea teleconnections in all simulations; the exact configurations are model sensitive. The WAMR interannual-to-decadal variability depicts marked multi-centennial oscillations, with La Niña/negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation and a weakening and/or poleward shift of subtropical high-pressure systems over the Atlantic favoring wet WAMR anomalies. The WAMR interannual-to-decadal variability also depicts an overall decreasing trend throughout the Holocene that is consistent among the simulations. This decreasing trend relates to changes in the North Atlantic and Gulf of Guinea Sea Surface Temperature variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The low-lying and densely populated Southeast Asia (SEA) region is threatened by sea-level change. To better understand the mechanism of sea-level change in this region, the sea-level trends and variability in the SEA region are investigated over the historical period 1950–2014 and during 2015–2099 under Shared Socio-economic Pathway5-8.5 scenario forcing, based on the output of the high-resolution (~ 0.1° for ocean) global climate model MPI-ESM-ER. The results confirm that the SEA sterodynamic sea level and its components (i.e., thermosteric, halosteric, and manometric sea level) are rising with accelerations, which are superimposed on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) driven variabilities. To understand changes of thermosteric and halosteric sea level, regional-mean ocean heat and freshwater contents are analysed based on physical processes of ocean transports and air-sea fluxes. We show that ENSO variability impacts the thermosteric sea level mainly through lateral ocean heat transports, while it impacts the halosteric sea level mainly through surface freshwater flux. In the projection, a decreased volume transport of the relatively cold water (with respect to the SEA average) from the Pacific warms the SEA region. At the same time, a freshening of the transported saline water (with respect to the SEA average) results in an increased ocean freshwater transport into the SEA region. Locally, the pathway of volume transport from the Pacific to the SEA region is shifting northward, which results in a weakened Indonesian throughflow and an enhanced South China Sea throughflow, both leading to changes of regional sea-level pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A vivid scientific debate exists on the nature of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) as an intrinsic rather than predominantly forced climatic phenomenon, and on the role of ocean circulation. Here, we use a multi-millennial unperturbed control simulation and a Holocene simulation with slow-varying greenhouse gas and orbital forcing performed with the low-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model to illustrate thermohaline conditions associated with twelve events of strong AMV that are comparable, in the surface anomalies, to observations in their amplitudes (~ 0.3 °C) and periods (~ 80 years). The events are associated with recurrent yet spatially diverse same-sign anomalous sea-surface temperature and salinity fields that are substantially symmetric in the warm-to-cold and following cold-to-warm transitions and only partly superpose with the long-term spatial AMV pattern. Subpolar cold-fresh anomalies develop in the deep layers during the peak cold phase of strong AMV events, often in association with subtropical warm-salty anomalies yielding a meridional dipole pattern. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) robustly weakens during the warm-to-cold transition of a strong AMV event and recovers thereafter, with surface salinity anomalies being potential precursors of such overturning changes. A Holocene simulation with the same model including volcanic forcing can disrupt the intrinsic AMV–AMOC connection as post-eruption periods often feature an AMOC strengthening forced by the volcanically induced surface cooling. Overall, our results support the AMV as a potential intrinsic feature of climate, whose episodic strong anomalous events can display different shades of spatial patterns and timings for the warm-to-cold and subsequent cold-to-warm transitions. Attribution of historical AMV fluctuations thus requires full consideration of the associated surface and subsurface thermohaline conditions and assessing the AMOC–AMV relation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a data assimilation scheme with the Icosahedral Non-hydrostatic Earth System Model (ICON-ESM) for operational decadal and seasonal climate predictions at the German weather service. For this purpose, we implement an Ensemble Kalman Filter to the ocean component as a first step towards a weakly coupled data assimilation. We performed an assimilation experiment over the period 1960–2014. This ocean-only assimilation experiment serves to initialize 10-year long retrospective predictions (hindcasts) started each year on 1 November. On multi-annual time scales, we find predictability of sea surface temperature and salinity as well as oceanic heat and salt contents especially in the North Atlantic. The mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is realistic and the variability is stable during the assimilation. On seasonal time scales, we find high predictive skill in the tropics with highest values in variables related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. In the Arctic, the hindcasts correctly represent the decreasing sea ice trend in winter and, to a lesser degree, also in summer, although sea ice concentration is generally much too low in both hemispheres in summer. However, compared to other prediction systems, prediction skill is relatively low in regions apart from the tropical Pacific due to the missing atmospheric assimilation. Further improvements of the simulated mean state of ICON-ESM, e.g. through fine-tuning of the sea ice and the oceanic circulation in the Southern Ocean, are expected to improve the predictive skill. In general, we demonstrate that our data assimilation method is successfully initializing the oceanic component of the climate system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of anthropogenic climate change in the ocean is challenging to project because atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond differently to forcing. This study focuses on changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean heat content (Δ OHC), and the spatial pattern of ocean dynamic sea level ( Δ ζ ). We analyse experiments following the FAFMIP protocol, in which AOGCMs are forced at the ocean surface with standardised heat, freshwater and momentum flux perturbations, typical of those produced by doubling CO 2 . Using two new heat-flux-forced experiments, we find that the AMOC weakening is mainly caused by and linearly related to the North Atlantic heat flux perturbation, and further weakened by a positive coupled heat flux feedback. The quantitative relationships are model-dependent, but few models show significant AMOC change due to freshwater or momentum forcing, or to heat flux forcing outside the North Atlantic. AMOC decline causes warming at the South Atlantic-Southern Ocean interface. It does not strongly affect the global-mean vertical distribution of Δ OHC, which is dominated by the Southern Ocean. AMOC decline strongly affects Δ ζ in the North Atlantic, with smaller effects in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific. The ensemble-mean Δ ζ and Δ OHC patterns are mostly attributable to the heat added by the flux perturbation, with smaller effects from ocean heat and salinity redistribution. The ensemble spread, on the other hand, is largely due to redistribution, with pronounced disagreement among the AOGCMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mechanistic causes for sea level (SL) change patterns are analyzed as they emerge from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) endorsed Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) coupled climate experiments imposing individual forcing anomalies in wind stress, heatflux and freshwater flux to the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). It appears that the heat flux perturbations have the largest effect on the sea level. In contrast, the direct impact of momentum and freshwater flux anomalies on SL anomalies appear to be limited to some region e.g. the Southern Ocean, Arctic Ocean and to some extent the North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean. We find that thermosteric changes dominate the total SL change over large parts of the global ocean, except north of 60 °N where halosteric changes prevail. An analysis of added and redistributed components of heat and freshwater further suggests that the added component dominates the thermosteric SL and the redistributed component dominates the halosteric SL. Due to feedback processes a superposition of all forcing components together leads to the simulated sea level changes in each individual experiment. As a result, large surface heat flux anomalies over the Atlantic lead to wind stress change outside of the Atlantic through teleconnections, which in turn appear to be the primary driving agent for changes of sea level outside of the Atlantic in all three experiments. The associated wind driven Sverdrup stream function implicates that outside of the Atlantic most of the feedback can be explained by changes in the Sverdrup circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate has experienced various coherent wintertime multidecadal climate trends in stratosphere, troposphere, ocean, and cryosphere. However, the overall mechanistic framework linking these trends is not well established. Here we show, using long-term transient forced coupled climate simulation, that large parts of the coherent NH-multidecadal changes can be understood within a damped coupled stratosphere/troposphere/ocean-oscillation framework. Wave-induced downward propagating positive stratosphere/troposphere-coupled Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and associated stratospheric cooling initiate delayed thermohaline strengthening of Atlantic overturning circulation and extratropical Atlantic-gyres. These increase the poleward oceanic heat transport leading to Arctic sea-ice melting, Arctic warming amplification, and large-scale Atlantic warming, which in turn initiates wave-induced downward propagating negative NAM and stratospheric warming and therefore reverse the oscillation phase. This coupled variability improves the performance of statistical models, which project further weakening of North Atlantic Oscillation, North Atlantic cooling and hiatus in wintertime North Atlantic-Arctic sea-ice and global surface temperature just like the 1950s–1970s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (ζ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the mechanism of a decadal-scale weakening shift in the strength of the subpolar gyre (SPG) that is found in one among three last millennium simulations with a state-of-the-art Earth system model. The SPG shift triggers multicentennial anomalies in the North Atlantic climate driven by long-lasting internal feedbacks relating anomalous oceanic and atmospheric circulation, sea ice extent, and upper-ocean salinity in the Labrador Sea. Yet changes throughout or after the shift are not associated with a persistent weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or shifts in the North Atlantic Oscillation. The anomalous climate state of the North Atlantic simulated after the shift agrees well with climate reconstructions from within the area, which describe a transition between a stronger and weaker SPG during the relatively warm medieval climate and the cold Little Ice Age respectively. However, model and data differ in the timing of the onset. The simulated SPG shift is caused by a rapid increase in the freshwater export from the Arctic and associated freshening in the upper Labrador Sea. Such freshwater anomaly relates to prominent thickening of the Arctic sea ice, following the cluster of relatively small-magnitude volcanic eruptions by 1600 CE. Sensitivity experiments without volcanic forcing can nonetheless produce similar abrupt events; a necessary causal link between the volcanic cluster and the SPG shift can therefore be excluded. Instead, preconditioning by internal variability explains discrepancies in the timing between the simulated SPG shift and the reconstructed estimates for the Little Ice Age onset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An on-line, ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) method is performed to reconstruct the climate for 1750-1850 AD, and the performance is evaluated on large and small spatial scales. We use a low-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology MPI-ESM model and assimilate the PAGES 2K continental mean temperature reconstructions for the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The ensembles are generated sequentially for sub-periods based on the analysis of previous sub-periods. The assimilation has good skill for large-scale temperatures, but there is no agreement between the DA analysis and proxy-based reconstructions for small-scale temperature patterns within Europe or with reconstructions for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. To explain the lack of added value in small spatial scales, a maximum covariance analysis (MCA) of links between NH temperature and sea level pressure is performed based on a control simulation with MPI-ESM. For annual values, winter and spring the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) is the pattern that is most closely linked to the NH continental temperatures, while for summer and autumn it is a wave-like pattern. This link is reproduced in the DA for winter, spring and annual means, providing potential for constraining the NAM/NAO phase and in turn regional temperature variability. It is shown that the lack of actual small-scale skill is likely due to the fact that the link might be too weak, as the NH continental mean temperatures are not the best predictors for large-scale circulation anomalies, or that the PAGES 2K temperatures include noise. Both factors can lead to circulation anomalies in the DA analysis that are substantially different from reality, leading to unrealistic representation of small-scale temperature variability. Moreover, we show that even if the true amplitudes of the leading MCA circulation patterns were known, there is still a large amount of unexplained local temperature variance. Based on these results, we argue that assimilating temperature reconstructions with a higher spatial resolution might improve the DA performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use the coupled climate model MPI-ESM to show that for higher CO levels the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) merge into a single mode of Pacific variability, regardless of present-day or Middle Miocene (~15 Ma) topographic boundary conditions. Hence, topographic differences-determining the landscape of past climates-play a smaller role for Pacific variability than previously thought. We attribute the single variability mode to resonance between these two oscillation patterns. In order to estimate the strength of the resonance we compute the spectral power of the ENSO and PDO time series and their coherence. We find that for both Middle Miocene and present-day topographic conditions, higher CO forcing leads to stronger resonance between ENSO and PDO. Our results show that (1) stronger CO forcing enhances Pacific variability resulting in stronger 'atmospheric bridge' and that (2) past climates are likely to exhibit Pacific variability corresponding either to ENSO, PDO, or our proposed single mode. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pronounced positive decadal-scale temperature anomalies occurred in the Arctic region in the first half of the twentieth century, an episode known as the early twentieth century warming (ETCW). Analyzing a 3,000-year unperturbed climate simulation performed with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, we demonstrate that internal variability of the Northern Hemisphere climate system is sufficient to reproduce warm events matching the observed ETCW. We perform a superposed epoch analysis on simulated data and identify 26 Arctic warming episodes compatible with the ETCW. The simulated events reproduce, in their ensemble average, magnitude as well as spatial and temporal extent of the observed ETCW. In individual realizations, the ETCW-like events indicate that different patterns of internally generated decadal Arctic warming are possible, including pan-Arctic warming events. We investigate the dynamics that typically lead to the simulated warming events: positive oceanic heat transport anomalies that form in the North Atlantic initialize the warming events and trigger an ocean-ice-albedo feedback in the Barents Sea region. The consequent reduction in sea-ice extent leads to enhanced multi-year surface warming through strengthened ocean heat release to the atmosphere. The oceanic heat transport anomalies reduce to pre-event levels around the year of the maximum warming. However, the warming events typically lasts for another 5-7 years until the sea-ice extent recovers to pre-event conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate how differently-constructed indices for North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (NASSTs) describe the 'Atlantic Multidecadal Variability' (AMV) in a suite of unperturbed as well as externally-forced millennial (pre-industrial period) climate simulations. The simulations stem from an ensemble of Earth system models differing in both resolution and complexity. Different criteria exist to construct AMV indices capturing different aspects of the phenomenon. Although all representations of the AMV maintain strong multidecadal variability, they depict different characteristics of simulated low-frequency NASST variability, evolve differently in time and relate to different hemispheric teleconnections. Due to such multifaceted signatures in the ocean-surface as well as in the atmosphere, reconstructions of past AMV may not univocally reproduce multidecadal NASST variability. AMV features under simulated externally-forced pre-industrial climate conditions are not unambiguously distinguishable, within a linear framework, from AMV features in corresponding unperturbed simulations. This prevents a robust diagnosis of the simulated pre-industrial AMV as a predominantly internal rather than externally-forced phenomenon. We conclude that a multi-perspective assessment of multidecadal NASSTs variability is necessary for understanding the origin of the AMV, its physics and its climatic implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In projections of twenty-first century climate, Arctic sea ice declines and at the same time exhibits strong interannual anomalies. Here, we investigate the potential to predict these strong sea-ice anomalies under a perfect-model assumption, using the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model in the same setup as in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We study two cases of strong negative sea-ice anomalies: a 5-year-long anomaly for present-day conditions, and a 10-year-long anomaly for conditions projected for the middle of the twenty-first century. We treat these anomalies in the CMIP5 projections as the truth, and use exactly the same model configuration for predictions of this synthetic truth. We start ensemble predictions at different times during the anomalies, considering lagged-perfect and sea-ice-assimilated initial conditions. We find that the onset and amplitude of the interannual anomalies are not predictable. However, the further deepening of the anomaly can be predicted for typically 1 year lead time if predictions start after the onset but before the maximal amplitude of the anomaly. The magnitude of an extremely low summer sea-ice minimum is hard to predict: the skill of the prediction ensemble is not better than a damped-persistence forecast for lead times of more than a few months, and is not better than a climatology forecast for lead times of two or more years. Predictions of the present-day anomaly are more skillful than predictions of the mid-century anomaly. Predictions using sea-ice-assimilated initial conditions are competitive with those using lagged-perfect initial conditions for lead times of a year or less, but yield degraded skill for longer lead times. The results presented here suggest that there is limited prospect of predicting the large interannual sea-ice anomalies expected to occur throughout the twenty-first century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current study deals with a parameterization of diapycnal diffusivity in an ocean model. The parameterization estimates the diapycnal diffusivity depending on the location of tidal-related energy dissipation over rough topography. The scheme requires a bottom roughness map that can be chosen depending on the scales of topographic features. Here, we implement the parameterization on an ocean general circulation model, and we examine the sensitivity of the modeled circulations to different spatial scales of the modeled bottom roughness. We compare three simulations that include the tidal mixing scheme using bottom roughness calculated at three different ranges of spatial scales, with the largest scale varying up to 200 km. Three main results are discussed. First, the dependence of the topographic spectra with depth, characterized by an increase in spectral energy over short length scales in the deep ocean, influences the vertical profile of the diffusivity. Second, the changes in diffusivities lead to different equilibrium solutions in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and bottom circulation. In particular, the lower cell of the Atlantic overturning and the bottom water transport in the Pacific Ocean are stronger for stronger diffusivities at the corresponding basins and depths, and the strongest when using the small-scale roughness map. Third, a comparison of the density fields of the three simulations with the density field of World Ocean Atlas dataset, from which the models are initialized, shows that among the simulations with three different roughness maps, the one using small-scale bottom roughness map has the smallest density bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A mechanism contributing to centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is tested with multi-millennial control simulations of several coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). These are a substantially extended integration of the 3rd Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model (HadCM3), the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), and the Max Plank Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Significant AMOC variability on time scales of around 100 years is simulated in these models. The centennial mechanism links changes in the strength of the AMOC with oceanic salinities and surface temperatures, and atmospheric phenomena such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). 2 of the 3 models reproduce all aspects of the mechanism, with the third (MPI-ESM) reproducing most of them. A comparison with a high resolution paleo-proxy for Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) north of Iceland over the last 4,000 years, also linked to the ITCZ, suggests that elements of this mechanism may also be detectable in the real world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in meridional heat transports, carried either by the atmosphere (HTRA) or by the ocean (HTRO), have been proposed to explain the decadal to multidecadal climate variations in the Arctic. On the other hand, model simulations indicate that, at high northern latitudes, variations in HTRA and HTRO are strongly coupled and may even compensate each other. A multi-century control integration with the Max Planck Institute global atmosphere-ocean model is analyzed to investigate the relative role of the HTRO and HTRA variations in shaping the Arctic climate and the consequences of their possible compensation. In the simulation, ocean heat transport anomalies modulate sea ice cover and surface heat fluxes mainly in the Barents Sea/Kara Sea region and the atmosphere responds with a modified pressure field. In response to positive HTRO anomalies there are negative HTRA anomalies associated with an export of relatively warm air southward to Western Siberia and a reduced inflow of heat over Alaska and northern Canada. While the compensation mechanism is prominent in this model, its dominating role is not constant over long time scales. The presence or absence of the compensation is determined mainly by the atmospheric circulation in the Pacific sector of the Arctic where the two leading large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns determine the lateral fluxes with varying contributions. The degree of compensation also determines the heat available to modulate the large-scale Arctic climate. The combined effect of atmospheric and oceanic contributions has to be considered to explain decadal-scale warming or cooling trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea ice variability in the Barents Sea and its impact on climate are analyzed using a 465-year control integration of a global coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model. Sensitivity simulations are performed to investigate the response to an isolated sea ice anomaly in the Barents Sea. The interannual variability of sea ice volume in the Barents Sea is mainly determined by variations in sea ice import into Barents Sea from the Central Arctic. This import is primarily driven by the local wind field. Horizontal oceanic heat transport into the Barents Sea is of minor importance for interannual sea ice variations but is important on longer time scales. Events with strong positive sea ice anomalies in the Barents Sea are due to accumulation of sea ice by enhanced sea ice imports and related NAO-like pressure conditions in the years before the event. Sea ice volume and concentration stay above normal in the Barents Sea for about 2 years after an event. This strongly increases the albedo and reduces the ocean heat release to the atmosphere. Consequently, air temperature is much colder than usual in the Barents Sea and surrounding areas. Precipitation is decreased and sea level pressure in the Barents Sea is anomalously high. The large-scale atmospheric response is limited with the main impact being a reduced pressure over Scandinavia in the year after a large ice volume occurs in the Barents Sea. Furthermore, high sea ice volume in the Barents Sea leads to increased sea ice melting and hence reduced surface salinity. Generally, the climate response is smallest in summer and largest in winter and spring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the coupled ECHAM5/MPIOM exhibits variability at periods of near 30 years and near 60 years. The 30-year variability, referred to as interdecadal variability (IDV), exist in an ocean model driven by climatological atmospheric forcing, suggesting that it is maintained by ocean dynamics; the 60-year variability, the multidecadal variability (MDV), is only observed in the fully coupled model and therefore is interpreted as an atmosphere–ocean coupled mode. The coexistence of the 30-year IDV and the 60-year MDV provides a possible explanation for the widespread time scales observed in climate variables. Further analyses of the climatologically forced ocean model shows that, the IDV is related to the interplay between the horizontal temperature-dominated density gradients and the ocean circulation: temperature anomalies move along the cyclonic subpolar gyre leading to fluctuations in horizontal density gradients and the subsequent weakening and strengthening of the MOC. This result is consistent with that from less complex models, indicating the robustness of the IDV. We further show that, along the North Atlantic Current path, the sea surface temperature anomalies are determined by the slow LSW advection at the intermediate depth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) plays a central role for the climate in the Atlantic realm. Since scenarios for future climate change indicate a significant reduction of the MOC under global warming, an assessment of variations and trends of the real MOC is important. Using observations at ocean weather ship (OWS) stations and along oceanic sections, we examine the hydrographic information that can be used to determine MOC trends via its signature in water mass properties obtained from model simulations with the climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. We show that temperature trends at mid-latitudes provide useful indirect measure of large-scale changes of deep circulation: A mid-depth warming is related to MOC weakening and a cooling to MOC strengthening. Based on our model experiments, we argue that a continuation of measurements at key OWS sites may contribute to a timely detection of a possible future MOC slowdown and to separate the signal from interannual-to-multidecadal MOC variability. The simulations suggest that the subsurface hydrographic information related to MOC has a lower variability than the MOC trend measured directly. Based on our model and the available long-term hydrographic data, we estimate non-significant MOC trends for the last 80 years. For the twenty-first century, however, the model simulations predict a significant MOC decline and accompanied mid-depth warming trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyses of a 500-year control integration of the global coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean model ECHAM5.0/MPI-OM show a high variability in the ice export through Fram Strait on interannual to decadal timescales. This variability is mainly determined by variations in the sea level pressure gradient across Fram Strait and thus geostrophic wind stress. Ice thickness anomalies, formed at the Siberian coast and in the Chukchi Sea, propagate across the Arctic to Fram Strait and contribute to the variability of the ice export on a timescale of about 9 years. Large anomalies of the ice export through Fram Strait cause fresh water signals, which reach the Labrador Sea after 1–2 years and lead to significant changes in the deep convection. The associated anomalies in ice cover and ocean heat release have a significant impact on air temperature in the Labrador Sea and on the large-scale atmospheric circulation. This affects the sea ice transport and distribution in the Arctic again. Sensitivity studies, simulating the effect of large ice exports through Fram Strait, show that the isolated effect of a prescribed ice/fresh water anomaly is very important for the climate variability in the Labrador Sea. Thus, the ice export through Fram Strait can be used for predictability of Labrador Sea climate up to 2 years in advance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reconstructions of the global mean annual temperature evolution during the Holocene yield conflicting results. One temperature reconstruction shows global cooling during the late Holocene. The other reconstruction reveals global warming. Here we show that both a global warming mode and a cooling mode emerge when performing a spatio-temporal analysis of annual temperature variability during the Holocene using data from a transient climate model simulation. The warming mode is most pronounced in the tropics. The simulated cooling mode is determined by changes in the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea-ice that are forced by orbital variations and volcanic eruptions. The warming mode dominates in the mid-Holocene, whereas the cooling mode takes over in the late Holocene. The weighted sum of the two modes yields the simulated global temperature trend evolution. Our findings have strong implications for the interpretation of proxy data and the selection of proxy locations to compute global mean temperatures. Proxy reconstructions show a decreasing trend from the Middle to Late Holocene, which conflicts with model results showing an increasing trend. Statistical analysis of model output shows that these conflicting results originate from two distinct modes of variability, which dominate at different regions and times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reports changes in the overflow characteristics of the Denmark Strait during the winter of 1996-1997. Use of two current-meter moorings and an inverted echo sounder located at different depths in the fastest part of the flow for measurement; Possibility that warmth of the overflow is a lagged response to a warming upstream in the Fram Strait in Denmark three years earlier; Possibility that overflow characteristics are predictable.