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We present a new approach for relating nucleic-acid content to fluorescence in a real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) assay. By coupling a two-type branching process for PCR with a fluorescence analog of Beer’s Law, the approach reduces bias and quantifies uncertainty in fluorescence. As the two-type branching process distinguishes between complementary strands of DNA, it allows for a stoichiometric description of reactions between fluorescent probes and DNA and can capture the initial conditions encountered in assays targeting RNA. Analysis of the expected copy-number identifies additional dynamics that occur at short times (or, equivalently, low cycle numbers), while investigation of the variance reveals the contributions from liquid volume transfer, imperfect amplification, and strand-specific amplification (i.e., if one strand is synthesized more efficiently than its complement). Linking the branching process to fluorescence by the Beer’s Law analog allows for an a priori description of background fluorescence. It also enables uncertainty quantification (UQ) in fluorescence which, in turn, leads to analytical relationships between amplification efficiency (probability) and limit of detection. This work sets the stage for UQ-PCR, where both the input copy-number and its uncertainty are quantified from fluorescence kinetics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivated by the current COVID-19 health crisis, we consider data analysis for quantitative polymerase chain-reaction (qPCR) measurements. We derive a theoretical result specifying the conditions under which all qPCR amplification curves (including their plateau phases) are identical up to an affine transformation, i.e. a multiplicative factor and horizontal shift. We use this result to develop a data analysis procedure for determining when an amplification curve exhibits characteristics of a true signal. The main idea behind this approach is to invoke a criterion based on constrained optimization that assesses when a measurement signal can be mapped to a master reference curve. We demonstrate that this approach: (i) can decrease the fluorescence detection threshold by up to a decade; and (ii) simultaneously improve confidence in interpretations of late-cycle amplification curves. Moreover, we demonstrate that the master curve is transferable reference data that can harmonize analyses between different labs and across several years. Application to reverse-transcriptase qPCR measurements of a SARS-CoV-2 RNA construct points to the usefulness of this approach for improving confidence and reducing limits of detection in diagnostic testing of emerging diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]