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To meet the growing demand for climate change information to guide national and local adaptation decision-making in the Philippines, the climate science and services community is producing an increasing volume of future climate data using a range of modelling approaches. However, there is a significant methodological challenge in how to best compare and combine information produced using different models and methods. In this paper, we present the landscape of climate model data available in the Philippines and show how multi-model, multi-method climate projections are being used and communicated to inform climate change policy and planning, focusing on the agriculture sector. We highlight the importance of examining and communicating methodological strengths and weaknesses as well as understanding the needs and capabilities of different user communities. We discuss the assessment of projections from different methods, including global and regional downscaled simulations, and discuss ways to summarise and communicate this information to stakeholders using co-production approaches. The paper concludes with perspectives on how to best use an “ensemble of opportunity” to construct defensible, plausible and usable climate projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global economic change and policy interventions are driving transitions from long-fallow swidden (LFS) systems to alternative land uses in Southeast Asia's uplands. This study presents a systematic review of how these transitions impact upon livelihoods and ecosystem services in the region. Over 17 000 studies published between 1950 and 2015 were narrowed, based on relevance and quality, to 93 studies for further analysis. Our analysis of land-use transitions from swidden to intensified cropping systems showed several outcomes: more households had increased overall income, but these benefits came at significant cost such as reductions of customary practice, socio-economic wellbeing, livelihood options, and staple yields. Examining the effects of transitions on soil properties revealed negative impacts on soil organic carbon, cation-exchange capacity, and aboveground carbon. Taken together, the proximate and underlying drivers of the transitions from LFS to alternative land uses, especially intensified perennial and annual cash cropping, led to significant declines in pre-existing livelihood security and the ecosystem services supporting this security. Our results suggest that policies imposing land-use transitions on upland farmers so as to improve livelihoods and environments have been misguided; in the context of varied land uses, swidden agriculture can support livelihoods and ecosystem services that will help buffer the impacts of climate change in Southeast Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have highlighted the importance of trees and agroforestry in climate change adaptation and mitigation. This paper analyzes how farmers, members of their households, and community leaders in the Wahig-Inabanga watershed, Bohol province in the Philippines perceive of climate change, and define and value the roles of trees in coping with climate risks. Focus group discussions revealed that farmers and community leaders had observed changes in rainfall and temperature over the years. They also had positive perceptions of tree roles in coping with climate change, with most timber tree species valued for regulating functions, while non-timber trees were valued as sources of food and income. Statistical analysis of the household survey results was done through linear probability models for both determinants of farmers' perceived changes in climate, and perceived importance of tree roles in coping with climate risks. Perceiving of changes in rainfall was more likely among farmers who had access to electricity, had access to water for irrigation, and derived climate information from government agencies and mass media, and less likely among farmers who were members of farmers' organizations. On the other hand, perceiving of an increase in temperature was more likely among famers who were members of women's organizations and had more off/non-farm sources of income, and less likely among those who derived climate information from government agencies. Meanwhile, marginal effects of the regression on perceived importance of trees in coping with climate change revealed positively significant relationships with the following predictor variables: access to electricity, number of off/non-farm sources of income, having trees planted by household members, observed increase in temperature and decline in yield, and sourcing climate information from government agencies. In contrast, a negatively significant relationship was observed between recognition of the importance of tree roles, and level of education, and deriving income from tree products. In promoting tree-based adaptation, we recommend improving access to necessary inputs and resources, exploring the potentials of farmer-to-farmer extension, using participatory approaches to generate farmer-led solutions based on their experiences of climate change, and initiating government-led extension to farmers backed by non-government partners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a high level of interest in reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation plus (REDD+) carbon (C) financing as a way to accelerate forest conservation and development. However, there is very limited information on the potential costs and benefits of REDD+ in developing countries like the Philippines. In this paper, we estimated the range of likely financial benefits of REDD+ implementation in the country under various forest degradation and mitigation scenarios. Our findings show that reducing the rate of forest degradation by a modest 5 to 15 % annually while increasing the doubling the rate of reforestation to 1.5 % annually could reduce C emissions by up to about 60 million t C by 2030. These are equivalent to US$ 97 to 417 million of mean C credits annually at US$ 5 per ton C. These figures are much higher than the total budget of the government and official development assistance for forestry activities in the country which amounted to US$ 46 million in 2005 and US$ 12 million in 2006, respectively. We conclude that REDD+ C credits could be a significant source of financing for forestry projects in developing countries like the Philippines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of forestry projects in carbon conservation and sequestration is receiving much attention because of their role in the mitigation of climate change. The main objective of the study is to analyze the potential of the Upper Magat Watershed for a carbon sequestration project. The three main development components of the project are forest conservation: tree plantations, and agroforestry farm development. At Year 30, the watershed can attain a net carbon benefit of 19.5 M tC at a cost of US$ 34.5 M. The potential leakage of the project is estimated using historical experience in technology adoption in watershed areas in the Philippines and a high adoption rate. Two leakage scenarios were used: baseline and project leakage scenarios. Most of the leakage occurs in the first 10 years of the project as displacement of livelihood occurs during this time. The carbon lost via leakage is estimated to be 3.7 M tC in the historical adoption scenario, and 8.1 M tC under the enhanced adoption scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most smallholder agroforestry systems in Southeast Asia are tree- and species-rich systems producing non-wood and wood products for both home use and market sale. Due to their high biomass, these systems contain large carbon (C) stocks. While the systems of individual farmers are of limited size, on a per area basis smallholder systems accumulate significant amounts of C, equaling the amount of C stored in some secondary forests of similar age. Their ability to simultaneously address smallholders' livelihood needs and store large amounts of C makes smallholder systems viable project types under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol, with its dual objective of emissions reduction and sustainable development. Smallholder systems have not developed in areas where enabling conditions do not exist. A CDM project that facilitates a minimum threshold of enabling conditions that make smallholder agroforestation possible should qualify for C credits. To secure smallholder confidence, the agroforestry systems promoted through a CDM project must be socially and economically viable independent of C payments. To assure system productivity and profitability, projects should provide farmers with technical and marketing assistance. Additionally, project sites should meet the following preconditions: areas of underutilized low-biomass landuse systems available for rehabilitation; smallholders interested in tree farming; accessible markets for tree products; supportive local governments; sufficient infrastructure; and transparent and equitable relationships between project partners. Questions of leakage and additionality should not be problematic and can be addressed through the project design, establishment of quantifiable baseline data and facilitating enabling conditions. However, smallholder-focused CDM projects would have high transaction costs. The subsequent challenge is thus to develop mechanisms that reduce the costs of: (a) making information (e.g., technology, markets) more accessible to multiple clients; (b) facilitating and enforcing smallholder agreements and (c) designing feasible monitoring systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assesses the reporting of carbon dioxide emissions and removals from the land use change and forestry (LUCF) sector based on the National Green House Gas inventories and the National Communications submitted by the Annex-I countries. Role of LUCF sector in carbon dioxide sinking; Factors contributing to carbon dioxide emission.