1. Large uncertainties in trends of energy demand for heating and cooling under climate change
- Author
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Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Benjamin Gaubert, Levi G. Silvers, Max Popp, Paul-Arthur Monerie, Inga Labuhn, Guillaume Siour, Adrien Deroubaix, Marie Camredon, Johanna Ramarohetra, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), University of Bremen, Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques (LISA (UMR_7583)), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), University of Reading (UOR), Chercheur indépendant, Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC - CNS), State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook University [SUNY] (SBU), State University of New York (SUNY)-State University of New York (SUNY), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)
- Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Science ,General Physics and Astronomy ,Climate change ,[SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology ,01 natural sciences ,7. Clean energy ,Article ,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology ,03 medical and health sciences ,Surface temperature of the earth ,Energy consumption--Environmental aspects ,030304 developmental biology ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,0303 health sciences ,Multidisciplinary ,Energy demand ,Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC] ,Energy supply and demand ,Global warming ,General Chemistry ,Escalfament global -- Models matemàtics ,Variable (computer science) ,Work (electrical) ,13. Climate action ,General Circulation Model ,Climatology ,Environmental science ,Energy consumption--Climatic factors ,Cooling energy ,Climate-change impacts - Abstract
The energy demand for heating and cooling buildings is changing with global warming. Using proxies of climate-driven energy demand based on the heating and cooling Degree-Days methodology applied to thirty global climate model simulations, we show that, over all continental areas, the climate-driven energy demand trends for heating and cooling were weak, changing by less than 10% from 1950 to 1990, but become stronger from 1990 to 2030, changing by more than 10%. With the multi-model mean, the increasing trends in cooling energy demand are more pronounced than the decreasing trends in heating. The changes in cooling, however, are highly variable depending on individual simulations, ranging from a few to several hundred percent in most of the densely populated mid-latitude areas. This work presents an example of the challenges that accompany future energy demand quantification as a result of the uncertainty in the projected climate., The energy demand for heating and cooling buildings is changing with global warming. Here the authors show that trends in cooling energy demands are increasing, although the magnitude is extremely uncertain, which highlights challenges for future energy demand quantification.
- Published
- 2021