Search

Declines in large vertebrate populations are widespread but difficult to detect from monitoring data and hard to understand due to a multiplicity of plausible biological explanations. In parts of Scotland, harbour seals ( Phoca vitulina) have been in decline for 10 years. To evaluate the contributions of different proximate causes (survival, fecundity, observation artefacts) to this decline, we collated behavioural, demographic and population data from one intensively studied population in part of the Moray Firth (north-east Scotland). To these, we fit a state-space model comprising age-structured dynamics and a detailed account of observation errors. After accounting for culling (estimated by our model as 14 % of total mortality), the main driver of the historical population decline was a decreasing trend in survival of young individuals combined with (previously unrecognised) low levels of pupping success. In more recent years, the model provides evidence for considerable increases in breeding success and consistently high levels of adult survival. However, breeding success remains the most volatile demographic component of the population. Forecasts from the model indicate a slow population recovery, providing cautious support for recent management measures. Such investigations of the proximate causes of population change (survival, fecundity and observation errors) provide valuable short-term support for the management of population declines, helping to focus future data collection on those ultimate causal mechanisms that are not excluded by the demographic evidence. The contribution of specific ultimate drivers (e.g. shooting mortality or competitors) can also be quantified by including them as covariates to survival or fecundity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article author discusses the research "State-space modeling reveals proximate causes of harbour seal population declines" by J. Matthiopoulos and others published within a 2014 issue. The topics discussed include demographic impact of shooting on harbour seal populations, drivers affecting different harbour seal population and criticism of the auhtor's model for seal population.

Disease outbreaks can drastically disturb the environment of surviving animals, but the behavioural, ecological, and epidemiological consequences of disease-driven disturbance are poorly understood. Here, we show that an outbreak of High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus (HPAIV) coincided with unprecedented short-term behavioural changes in Northern gannets (Morus bassanus). Breeding gannets show characteristically strong fidelity to their nest sites and foraging areas (2015–2019; n = 120), but during the 2022 HPAIV outbreak, GPS-tagged gannets instigated long-distance movements beyond well-documented previous ranges and the first ever recorded visits of GPS-tagged adults to other gannet breeding colonies. Our findings suggest that the HPAIV outbreak triggered changes in space use patterns of exposed individuals that amplified the epidemiological connectivity among colonies and may generate super-spreader events that accelerate disease transmission across the metapopulation. Such self-propagating transmission from and towards high density animal aggregations may explain the unexpectedly rapid pan-European spread of HPAIV in the gannet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small petrels are the most abundant seabirds in the Southern Ocean. However, because they breed in burrows on remote and often densely vegetated islands, their colony sizes and conservation status remain poorly known. To estimate the abundance of these species on Bird Island in the Falkland archipelago, we systematically surveyed their breeding burrow density and occupancy across this near-pristine tussac (Poa flabellata)-covered island. By modelling burrow density as functions of topography and Sentinel 2 satellite-derived Normalised Difference Vegetation Index data, we inferred habitat associations and predicted burrow abundance of the commonest species—Thin-billed Prions (Pachyptila belcheri) and Wilson's Storm-petrels (Oceanites oceanicus). We estimate that there are 631,000 Thin-billed Prion burrows on the island (95% CI 496,000–904,000 burrows). Assuming that burrow occupancy lies between 12 and 97%, this equates to around 76,000–612,000 breeding pairs, making Bird Island the second or third largest P. belcheri colony in the world, holding approximately 3–27% of the species' breeding population. We estimate that 8200–9800 (95% CI 5,200–18,300 pairs) pairs of Wilson's Storm-petrels also breed on the island. Notably, the latter burrowed predominantly under and within tussac pedestals, whereas they are usually assumed to breed in rock cavities. Thin-billed Prions are declining in the Kerguelen archipelago, but their population trends in the Falklands are unknown. Given the wide confidence intervals around our own and other population estimates for these cryptic species, we recommend that their populations should be monitored regularly, at multiple sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decline in malaria across Africa has been largely attributed to vector control using long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). However, this intervention has prompted widespread insecticide resistance (IR) and been associated with changes in mosquito behaviour that reduce their contact with LLINs. The relative importance and rate at which IR and behavioural adaptations emerge are poorly understood. We conducted surveillance of mosquito behaviour and IR at 12 sites in Burkina Faso to assess the magnitude and temporal dynamics of insecticide, biting and resting behaviours in vectors in the 2-year period following mass LLIN distribution. Insecticide resistance was present in all vector populations and increased rapidly over the study period. In contrast, no longitudinal shifts in LLIN-avoidance behaviours (earlier or outdoor biting and resting) were detected. There was a moderate but statistically significant shift in vector species composition from Anopheles coluzzii to Anopheles gambiae which coincided with a reduction in the proportion of bites preventable by LLINs; possibly driven by between-species variation in behaviour. These findings indicate that adaptations based on insecticide resistance arise and intensify more rapidly than behavioural shifts within mosquito vectors. However, longitudinal shifts in mosquito vector species composition were evident within 2 years following a mass LLIN distribution. This ecological shift was characterized by a significant increase in the exophagic species (An. gambiae) and coincided with a predicted decline in the degree of protection expected from LLINs. Although human exposure fell through the study period due to reducing vector densities and infection rates, such ecological shifts in vector species along with insecticide resistance were likely to have eroded the efficacy of LLINs. While both adaptations impact malaria control, the rapid increase of the former indicates this strategy develops more quickly in response to selection from LLINS. However, interventions targeting both resistance strategies will be needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of control measures on mosquito vector fitness and demography is usually estimated from bioassays or indirect variables in the field. Whilst indicative, neither approach is sufficient to quantify the potentially complex response of mosquito populations to combined interventions. Here, large replicated mesocosms were used to measure the population-level response of the malaria vector Anopheles arabiensis to long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) when used in isolation, or combined with insecticidal eave louvers (EL), or treatment of cattle with the endectocide Ivermectin (IM). State-space models (SSM) were fit to these experimental data, revealing that LLIN introduction reduced adult mosquito survival by 91% but allowed population persistence. ELs provided no additional benefit, but IM reduced mosquito fecundity by 59% and nearly eliminated all populations when combined with LLINs. This highlights the value of IM for integrated vector control, and mesocosm population experiments combined with SSM for identifying optimal combinations for vector population elimination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]