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In this paper we focus on modelling and forecasting gross interregional migration in a way that can be embedded within multiregional population projections. We revisit, and apply, a family of spatial interaction models first formulated during the 1970s. The classic gravity model—in which migration is positively related to the populations of sending and receiving areas, but inversely related to various types of spatial friction associated with migrating between them—is a special case that is nested within this family of models. We investigate which member of the family of models gives the best fit when modelling five-year migration flows between the 66 Territorial Authorities (TAs) of Aotearoa New Zealand, using 2013 and 2018 census data. We find that predicting migration between two TAs can be improved by taking into account, firstly, an index of the ‘draw’ from all other TAs when modelling out-migration of any TA and, secondly, an index of the ‘competitiveness’ of a TA vis-à-vis all other TAs when modelling in-migration of any TA. We highlight the properties of the statistically-preferred model by simulating the impact on internal migration of an exogenous increase in Auckland’s population. In this model, such a population change affects not only migration flows from and to Auckland, but also migration between other TAs. The usefulness of this approach for population projections is assessed by forecasting the 2013–18 migration matrix by means of 2013 census data only. In this specific case, the model outperforms the classic gravity model in terms of forecasting gross migration, but not net migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the main challenges facing non-metropolitan regions is the attraction and retention of highly-educated young people. A loss of the brightest can lead to reduced business creation, innovation, growth and community well-being in such regions. We use rich longitudinal microdata from New Zealand to analyse the determinants and geography of the choice of destination of recent university and polytechnic graduates 2 years and 4 years after graduation. Rather than considering a range of location-specific consumption and production amenities, we assume spatial equilibrium and calculate, following Chen and Rosenthal (J Urban Econ 64:519–537, 2008), 'quality of life' and 'quality of business' indicators for urban areas that encompass all amenities that are utility and/or productivity enhancing (or reducing, in the case of disamenities). Specifically, we test whether students locate in places that are regarded as good to live or good to do business; and how this differs by field of study. Our estimates are conditional on students' prior school (home) location and the location of their higher education institution. We find that graduates are attracted to locate in urban places that have high quality production amenities. High quality consumption amenities have heterogeneous effects on the location choice of students. Creative arts and commerce graduates are relatively more likely to locate in places that are attractive to business, consistent with a symbiosis between bohemians and business. Decision makers can leverage their existing local strengths, in terms of production and/or consumption amenities, to act as drawcards for, or to retain, recent graduates in specific fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Auckland, the largest city of New Zealand, is one of the most diverse cities in the world, with more than 40% of its population born abroad, more than 200 ethnicities represented and 160 languages spoken. In this paper, we measure residential sorting of individuals in Auckland by their cultural (ethnicity) and economic (income, education and occupation) characteristics for the years 1991–2013. Using entropy-based measures of residential sorting and of neighbourhood diversity, we find that individuals exhibit greater residential sorting by ethnicity than by economic characteristics. Geographically, the semi-rural fringes of the city exhibit less diversity than the central urban area. Multi-group indexes of cultural and economic sorting showed a small decline over the 1991–2013 period. We also observe that ethnic sorting declined over that period for broad ethnic groups, but that sorting within the broad ethnic groups increased since 2001. A similar pattern of decreasing sorting at the aggregate level, with increasing sorting within groups in the more recent sub-period, is observed for occupations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conduct a contingent valuation investigation of the preference of international migrants for better home country institutional quality. Our study uses contingent valuation questions in a survey of 1.6% of Vietnamese adult migrants living in New Zealand (NZ) in 2016 to establish the compensating differentials that make those migrants indifferent between residing in NZ and returning to Viet Nam (VN) in hypothetical scenarios. We find that the estimated willingness to pay for an incremental unit improvement in institutional quality in VN is, on average, about NZD 80 per week (approximately 33% of the average weekly wage in VN in PPP terms for the same period), and positively associated with the respondents' age and the perceived importance of institutional quality in VN to their repatriation intentions. This study underscores the importance of institutional quality to migration decisions by showing that migrants are willing to trade-off part of their regular income for better home country institutional quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we demonstrate that the conventional ordinary least squares and fixed effects estimators of classical gravity models of migration are biased, and that the interpretation of coefficients in the fixed effects gravity model is typically incorrect. We then present a best linear unbiased (BLU) estimator for gravity models of migration, and illustrate its application with inter-regional data from New Zealand. The results demonstrate that the standard ordinary least squares and fixed effect models lead to biased coefficients on population. Alternative estimates that are BLU are provided for a data generating process with fixed origin and destination effects. The coefficients on population must be interpreted in this model as growth rate effects rather than level effects. Our findings also have significance for other types of spatial interaction modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the last 15 years, there has been growing interest in the field of spatial demography (e.g., Raymer et al. [7]). Ever since, sessions on population and migration have been a stalwart component of virtually all regional science conferences - providing many innovations and insights into the study of spatial population dynamics. The rapidly evolving big data environments and new techniques to study space-time processes offer much scope, although there are pitfalls (see Cesare et al. [2]). [Extracted from the article]

Subnational population projections in New Zealand by means of the conventional deterministic cohort-component method have had a tendency to be conservative: underprojecting fast-growing populations and overprojecting slow-growing ones. In this paper we use a stochastic population projection method as an alternative. We generate population projections for five demographically distinct administrative areas within the Waikato region of New Zealand: Hamilton City, Franklin District, Thames-Coromandel District, Otorohanga District and South Waikato District. The results are compared to official subnational deterministic projections. The accuracy of subnational population projections in New Zealand is strongly affected by the instability of migration as a component of population change. Differently from the standard cohort-component method, in which net migration levels are projected, the key parameters of our method are age-gender-area specific probabilistic net migration rates. Generally, the identified and modelled uncertainty makes the traditional 'mid-range' scenario of subnational deterministic projections of limited use for policy analysis or planning beyond a relatively short projection horizon. We find that the projected range of rates of population growth is wider for smaller regions and/or regions more strongly affected by net migration. Directions for further development of the methodology are suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Becker and Barro (1988) formulated a theoretical model which identified a range of macroeconomic variables which can temporarily or permanently affect fertility in small open economies. This article tests the Becker-Barro model with relevant data which covers most of the 20th century for two small open economies, namely The Netherlands and New Zealand. The results show that government subsidies for having children have a strong positive effect on fertility, while the provision of public pensions has a strong negative effect. The degree of intergenerational altruism appears to have been declining. Moreover, there is only weak support for the hypothesis that real interest rates positively influence fertility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract. A new wave of interest in long-run economic growth emerged since the late 1980s. This paper uses a simple model to illustrate how technological change can be endogenised in macroeconomic theories of growth and then surveys how - through factor mobility, the diffusion of innovations and trade - spatial interdependence in a system of regions can influence technological change and growth. Endogenous technological change generates in our illustrative model long-run steady-state growth in a closed economy. However, it turns out that the dynamic impact of spatial interdependence depends on the specification of the model. Spatial convergence, a steady state with persisting spatial differences in growth rates and unstable growth are all theoretically possible. Issues relating to the role of aggregate demand and policy also receive attention. There is much scope for further theoretical and empirical work on endogenous growth in a spatial-economic context, while a better integration of micro and macro level approaches is also desirable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the role of information and communication in international migration by means of a survey which covers economic and broader perspectives, both at the micro and macro levels. The human capital model of migration is reviewed and the likely impact of recent and anticipated developments in telecommunications technology is noted. The job search model is reformulated in the context of international migration but extensive modification is required to describe the potential sampling of job offers and other informational needs of international migrants. It is argued that spatial selectivity is to a large extent influenced by migration networks in which information flows play a critical role. This is further elucidated by offering an analytical framework based on the systems approach to migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unfortunately, some correction requests of the author were not considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]