Search

The preparation of forecasts for small and local area populations involves many challenges. Standard cohort-component models are problematic because of small numbers, which make estimation of rates unreliable. Because of this, the Synthetic Migration Population Projection (SYMPOPP) model was designed to forecast local populations without need for detailed area-specific information. This model had been used successfully for small area forecasts in Australia. The objective of the paper is to assess its performance when applied to local areas in England. The model uses a bi-regional structure based on a movement population account. Sub-models of total population change are employed to control future change. Fertility, mortality and migration rates are borrowed from national statistics, constrained to small area indicators. The model uses an Excel workbook with VBA routines and is relatively easy and quick to use. Model inputs were calibrated for 2006–2011 and used to forecast for 2011–2021. Results were tested against the census-based 2021 mid-year populations. A new error statistic, Age Structure Error, was used to evaluate Basic and Refined model versions against official projections. The two versions of SYMPOPP posted lower errors. The simple models had fewer areas with errors of 10% or more (12.3–12.6%) compared with the official projections (14.5% of areas). Investigation revealed that these errors occurred in local authorities with high military, student, prison, or ethnic minority populations, influenced by factors not captured in a projection model for the general population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this editorial we pose four questions about the functional economies of northern England in the context of demographic change. How will the northern England population change in the next quarter of a century? What shape will the old of northern England be in and how will we look after them? Are the economies of northern England ready to meet the ageing challenge? Will silver entrepreneurs be able to contribute an economic revival of northern England? These are very important questions, the answers to which will affect the lives of 14 to 15 million people living in a laggard, peripheral European region in the near term future. The answers to these questions are provided by the four papers in this special issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern England faces important demographic challenges over the next 25 years: population ageing, a more ethnically diverse society, moderate demographic growth but with large differences between most and least successful localities. We examine past and future demographic changes in Northern England and their effect on population health, labour force size and household numbers, drawing out implications for public policy. We use new projections for England's local authority (LA) populations by ethnicity from 2001 to 2036. The population of Northern England will grow between 8 % and 12 %, depending on projection scenario. So, aggregate demand for goods and services in Northern England will continue to increase. The population will experience, however, rising old age dependency ratios. To maintain current ratios, pension entitlement age will need to increase to 70 by 2036 rather than the 68 planned in the 2011 Pension Act. Population ageing will impact numbers with limiting long term illness, which will increase more than the population as a whole because the age structure will become older. A decrease in the labour force will occur as the baby boomers retire, if labour force participation rates remain constant. Action needs to be taken to encourage employers to introduce flexible transitions to retirement that reward older workers who wish to continue in work. We also project the numbers of households, which increase a little faster than the population because ageing shifts the population towards older ages where households are smaller. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of European Journal of Population is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper reports on projections of the United Kingdom's ethnic group populations for 2001-2051. For the years 2001-2007 we estimate fertility rates, survival probabilities, internal migration probabilities and international migration flows for 16 ethnic groups and 355 UK areas. We make assumptions about future component rates, probabilities and flows and feed these into our projection model. This model is a cohort-component model specified for single years of age to 100+. To handle this large state space, we employed a bi-regional model. We implement four projections: (1) a benchmark projection that uses the component inputs for 2001; (2) a trend projection where assumptions beyond 2007 are adjusted to those in the UK 2008-based National Population Projections (NPP); (3) a projection that modifies the NPP assumptions and (4) a projection that uses a different emigration assumption. The projected UK population ranges between a low of 63 millions in 2051 under the first projection to a high of 79 million in the third projection. Under all projections ethnic composition continues to change: the White British, White Irish and Black Caribbean groups experience the slowest growth and lose population share; the Other White and Mixed groups to experience relative increases in share; South Asian groups grow strongly as do the Chinese and Other Ethnic groups. The ethnic minority share of the population increases from 13% (2001) to 25% in the trend projection but to only 20% under our modified emigration projection. However, what is certain is that the UK can look forward to be becoming a more diverse nation by mid-century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper asks the question: how does the multistate population model need to be adjusted to provide forecasts of geographical populations? Following an exposition of the standard model, ossible solutions to the problems posed by excessive number of parameters are discussed. ecomposition, aggregation and parameterization are described, drawing on some new results. ssues in the temporal forecasting of model components are outlined and the alternative approach of using a spatial interaction model is considered. The paper concludes by arguing that the design of forecasting models is a powerful learning device for both designers and users. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates population change and migration over the period 1984–1994 for communes. There are important conclusions emerging from this study. The first is that we are watching now a profound change of population redistribution patterns in Poland. We observed that direct upwards hierarchical mobility has been markedly modified. The first modification is the substantial reduction of migration from rural to urban locations. There were important changes in the role of cities and towns. Largest cities, massive gainers of the seventies and eighties, have tended to lose population in the mid-nineties. It is likely that they lose population mainly to the neighbouring communes. We believe that a suburbanization process has been put into motion. Medium to large sized towns and cities, in the range between 50,000 and 500,000 as well as small, but not the smallest, towns attract substantial parts of the migration pool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]