Search

Modeling of the Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) to phase 6 (CMIP6) is evaluated in this study. On average, a wide coverage of warm biases appears in the Antarctic stratosphere, which is greatest in the early CMIP and is gradually diminished in the two later CMIPs with the number of models reproducing QBO increasing (0, 5, and 19). Four metrics of the Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex are assessed for three generations of CMIPs. Biases such as the overly weak strength, the overly large aspect ratio and the westward drifted vortex centroid are commonly shared across the CMIPs. While with improvements of the model resolution, model top, interactive chemistry and physical process, the intermodel spread narrows generation by generation, especially for high-top models than low-top models in the simulation of vortex area. Further, intermodel spread of Antarctic stratospheric vortex is obviously associated with the bias of austral winter sea surface temperature (SST). Specifically, as cold SST bias in the southern tropical Pacific Ocean and warm SST bias in the Southern Hemisphere Niño 1 + 2 region (Nino) improve, biases in the modelled vortex metrics also decrease, which can be partly attributed to the modifying of the upward propagations of planetary waves over tropical and extratropical oceans. The strengthened relationships in the focused regions further confirms the importance of the SST simulation for the stratosphere vortex simulation. In general, despite biases of the polar vortex existing across CMIPs, marked progresses have been achieved for most models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The representation of the Arctic stratospheric circulation and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) during the period 1981–2019 in a 40-yr Chinese global reanalysis dataset (CRA-40) is evaluated by comparing two widely used reanalysis datasets, ERA-5 and MERRA-2. CRA-40 demonstrates a comparable performance with ERA-5 and MERRA-2 in characterizing the winter and spring circulation in the lower and middle Arctic stratosphere. Specifically, differences in the climatological polar-mean temperature and polar night jet among the three reanalyses are within ±0.5 K and ±0.5 m s−1, respectively. The onset dates of the stratospheric sudden warming and stratospheric final warming events at 10 hPa in CRA-40, together with the dynamics and circulation anomalies during the onset process of warming events, are nearly identical to the other two reanalyses with slight differences. By contrast, the CRA-40 dataset demonstrates a deteriorated performance in describing the QBO below 10 hPa compared to the other two reanalysis products, manifested by the larger easterly biases of the QBO index, the remarkably weaker amplitude of the QBO, and the weaker wavelet power of the QBO period. Such pronounced biases are mainly concentrated in the period 1981–98 and largely reduced by at least 39% in 1999–2019. Thus, particular caution is needed in studying the QBO based on CRA-40. All three reanalyses exhibit greater disagreement in the upper stratosphere compared to the lower and middle stratosphere for both the polar region and the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The weak stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) is usually linked to Northern Hemisphere cold spells. Based on the fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis and WACCM model experiments, we use K-means cluster analysis to extract the zonally asymmetric pattern of October-February stratospheric variability, which involves a stretched SPV and hence leads to cold surges in Northern Hemispheric mid-latitudes. There are contrasting effects and mechanisms between autumn (October–November) and late winter (February) SPV stretching events. In October, anomalies in the stratospheric circulation affect the near-surface 16–20 days after the weakening of the SPV. This contributes to a shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) towards its negative phase, leading to cold anomalies over northern Eurasia. Together with the weakening of planetary wave-1 during days 31–40, the second stratosphere–troposphere coupling strengthens the East Asian trough and the Siberian high, resulting in Eurasian high-latitude cooling. For November, the suppressed upward propagation of wave-1 during days 11–15 is conducive to anomalous high pressure over northern Europe and thereby European cooling through a stratospheric pathway, while for days 21–30, the weakening of propagating wave-2 over Eastern Europe intensifies the mid-latitude wave train through a tropospheric pathway, favorable for cold temperatures in mid-latitude East Asia. In contrast, the late winter SPV stretching events and the attendant Eurasian coldness during 11–25 days are likely to have been simultaneously driven by the long-lived European high anomaly, which enhanced the upward-propagating tropospheric waves into the stratosphere and thus favored SPV stretching. It indicates that the tropospheric pathway, rather than the stratospheric pathway, plays a dominant role in cold Eurasia following February SPV stretching events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Very large (~2000 members) initial-condition ensemble simulations have been performed to advance understanding of mean climate and extreme weather responses to projected Arctic sea-ice loss under 2 °C global warming above preindustrial levels. These simulations better sample internal atmospheric variability and extremes for each model compared to those from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP). The mean climate response is mostly consistent with that from the PAMIP multi-model ensemble, including tropospheric warming, reduced midlatitude westerlies and storm track activity, an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet and increased mid-to-high latitude blocking. Two resolutions of the same model exhibit significant differences in the stratospheric circulation response; however, these differences only weakly modulate the tropospheric response. The response of temperature and precipitation extremes largely follows the seasonal-mean response. Sub-sampling confirms that large ensembles (e.g. ≥400) are needed to robustly estimate the seasonal-mean large-scale circulation response, and very large ensembles (e.g. ≥1000) for regional climate and extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the dependence of Arctic stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) variations on the meridional positions of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the first leading mode of North Pacific SST. The principal component 1 (PC1) of the first leading mode is obtained by empirical orthogonal function decomposition. Reanalysis data, numerical experiments, and CMIP5 model outputs all suggest that the PC1 events (positive-minus-negative PC1 events), located relatively northward (i.e., North PC1 events), more easily weaken the Arctic SPV compared to the PC1 events located relatively southward (i.e., South PC1 events). The analysis indicates that the North PC1-related Aleutian low anomaly is located over the northern North Pacific and thus enhances the climatological trough, which strengthens the planetary-scale wave 1 at mid-to-high latitudes and thereby weakens the SPV. The weakened stratospheric circulation further extends into the troposphere and favors negative surface temperature anomalies over Eurasia. By contrast, the South PC1-related Aleutian low anomaly is located relatively southward, and its constructive interference with the climatological trough is less efficient at high latitudes. Thus, the South PC1 events could not induce an evident enhancement of the planetary-scale waves at high latitudes and thereby a weakening of the SPV on average. The Eurasian cooling associated with South PC1 events (positive-minus-negative PC1 events) is also not prominent. The results of this study suggest that the meridional positions of the PC1 events may be useful for predicting the Arctic SPV and Eurasian surface temperature variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the data of ERA5 reanalysis, the dates of spring and autumn changes in the stratospheric circulation on isobaric surfaces of 30, 20, and 10 hPa in the latitude zone of 30°–90° N in the period 1979–2020 have been obtained. Of the 42 cases of spring changes, 10 are early, 15 are middle, and 17 are late. The spread in the dates of spring changes on the surface of 10 hPa is 69 days. Most often, the spring changes of the circulation occurs from top to bottom; in some years, the delay of spring changes on the surface of 30 hPa relative to the surface of 10 hPa reaches 22–25 days. Autumn change takes place from the bottom up, and their terms at the 3 levels under consideration are close to each other. The relationship between the timing of the spring changes of the stratospheric circulation with solar activity and large sudden winter stratospheric warming is shown. An analysis of the fields of anomalies of daily temperature values and zonal wind velocity in the 1000-1 hPa layer in the period of January–May showed their significant spatiotemporal difference in the case of early and late spring changes. Thus, foci of positive anomalies of temperature and wind speed are formed initially in the upper stratosphere and then shifted from top to bottom. The interrelations between the layers of the atmosphere in different seasons are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The peculiarities of the troposphere and stratosphere dynamic processes that accompanied cooling events (cold waves) with a duration of more than a week in the northwest of European Russia (on the example of St. Petersburg) and in its north and center (on the example of Moscow) in early and late December 2021, respectively, are analyzed using reanalysis data, station observations, and trajectory modeling. In both cases the daily temperatures dropped below −10°C, and cold waves were accompanied by the air mass transport from the northeast [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The large-scale extratropical circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is much more zonally symmetric than that of the Northern Hemisphere, but its zonal departures, albeit highly relevant for regional impacts, have been less studied. In this study we analyse the joint variability of the zonally asymmetric springtime stratospheric and tropospheric circulation using Complex Empirical Orthogonal Functions (cEOF) to characterise planetary waves of varying amplitude and phase. The leading cEOF represents variability of a zonal wave 1 in the stratosphere that correlates slightly with the Symmetric Southern Annular Mode (S-SAM). The second cEOF (cEOF2) is an alternative representation of the Pacific-South American modes. One phase of this cEOF is also very highly correlated with the Asymmetric SAM (A-SAM) in the troposphere. Springs with an active ENSO tend to lock the cEOF2 to a specific phase, but have no consistent impact on its magnitude. Furthermore, we find indications that the location of Pacific Sea Surface Temperature anomalies affect the phase of the cEOF2. As a result, the methodology proposed in this study provides a deeper understanding of the zonally asymmetric springtime extratropical SH circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the recent four decades since 1980, a series of modern climate satellites were launched, allowing for the measurement and record-keeping of multiple climate parameters, especially over the polar regions where traditional observations are difficult to obtain. China has been actively engaging in polar expeditions. Many observations were conducted during this period, accompanied by improved Earth climate models, leading to a series of insightful understandings concerning Arctic and Antarctic climate changes. Here, we review the recent progress China has made concerning Arctic and Antarctic climate change research over the past decade. The Arctic temperature increase is much higher than the global-mean warming rate, associated with a rapid decline in sea ice, a phenomenon called the Arctic Amplification. The Antarctic climate changes showed a zonally asymmetric pattern over the past four decades, with most of the fastest changes occurring over West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. The Arctic and Antarctic climate changes were driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and ozone loss, while tropical-polar teleconnections play important roles in driving the regional climate changes and extreme events over the polar regions. Polar climate changes may also feedback to the entire Earth climate system. The adjustment of the circulation in both the troposphere and the stratosphere contributed to the interactions between the polar climate changes and lower latitudes. Climate change has also driven rapid Arctic and Southern ocean acidification. Chinese researchers have made a series of advances in understanding these processes, as reviewed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water vapor plays an important role in many aspects of the climate system, by affecting radiation, cloud formation, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics. Even the low stratospheric water vapor content provides an important climate feedback, but current climate models show a substantial moist bias in the lowermost stratosphere. Here we report crucial sensitivity of the atmospheric circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere to the abundance of water vapor in the lowermost stratosphere. We show from a mechanistic climate model experiment and inter-model variability that lowermost stratospheric water vapor decreases local temperatures, and thereby causes an upward and poleward shift of subtropical jets, a strengthening of the stratospheric circulation, a poleward shift of the tropospheric eddy-driven jet and regional climate impacts. The mechanistic model experiment in combination with atmospheric observations further shows that the prevailing moist bias in current models is likely caused by the transport scheme, and can be alleviated by employing a less diffusive Lagrangian scheme. The related effects on atmospheric circulation are of similar magnitude as climate change effects. Hence, lowermost stratospheric water vapor exerts a first order effect on atmospheric circulation and improving its representation in models offers promising prospects for future research. This study investigates the role of water in the lower-most stratosphere, affecting dynamics of the stratosphere and troposphere, and shows that common water vapor transport schemes can cause biases, present in nearly all modern climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The performance of the European Consortium Earth-system model (EC-EARTH) in the boreal winter stratosphere is comprehensively assessed for the first time, in particular its version 3.3 that contributes to CMIP6. A 100-year long simulation with prescribed climatological boundary conditions and fixed radiative forcing, representative of present-day climate, is used to evaluate the simulation of the climatological stratospheric circulation and to identify model biases. Results show that EC-EARTH has a large issue with the vertical distribution of stratospheric temperature from the tropics to mid-latitudes, seemingly linked to radiative processes of ozone, leading to a biased warm middle-upper stratosphere. Associated with this model bias, EC-EARTH simulates a stronger polar vortex at upper-stratospheric levels while the Brewer-Dobson circulation at middle/lower levels is weaker than reanalysis. The amplitude of the climatological planetary waves is overall underestimated, but the magnitude of the background wave injection from the troposphere into the stratosphere is overestimated, related to a weaker polar vortex at lower-stratospheric levels and, thus, a less effective wave filtering. This bias in the westerly flow could have a contribution from parameterized waves. The overestimation of background wave driving is maximum in early-winter, and may explain the overestimated frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings at this time, as compared to reanalysis. The spatial distribution of wave injection climatology has revealed a distinctive role of the climatological planetary waves: while large-scale waves (wavenumbers 1–2) dominate the eddy heat flux over the North Pacific, small-scale waves (wavenumbers 3–4) are responsible for the doubled-lobe structure of the eddy heat flux over Eurasia. EC-EARTH properly simulates this climatological feature, although overestimates its amplitude over central Eurasia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historically, observational information about atmospheric temperature has been limited due to a lack of suitable measurements. Recent advances in satellite observations provide new insight into the fine structure of the free atmosphere, with the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere comprising essential components of the climate system. This is a prerequisite for understanding the complex processes of this part of the atmosphere, which is also known to have a large impact on surface climate. With unprecedented resolution, latest climate observations reveal a dramatic warming of the atmosphere. The tropical upper troposphere has already warmed about 1 K during the first two decades of the 21st century. The tropospheric warming extends into the lower stratosphere in the tropics and southern hemisphere mid-latitudes, forming a prominent hemispheric asymmetry in the temperature trend structure. Together with seasonal trend patterns in the stratosphere, this indicates a possible change in stratospheric circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using reanalysis datasets and a coupled general circulation model, the relationship between springtime Arctic total column ozone (TCO) and surface (5 m) ocean currents in the North Pacific is investigated. We found that as March Arctic TCO decreases, a statistically significant northwestward ocean current anomaly occurs in the northern North Pacific in surface layer, but an anomalous southward ocean current appears in the central North Pacific in April, and vice versa. The decreased Arctic TCO favors an enhanced Arctic stratospheric circulation, which tends to induce the tropospheric positive Arctic Oscillation anomaly with easterly anomalies over the midlatitude eastern Asia in late March through stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling. The easterly anomaly over eastern Asia in late March further extends eastward and induces an easterly anomaly over the midlatitude North Pacific, which favors negative North Pacific Oscillation (–NPO)-like circulation anomaly via anomalous zonal wind shear and the interactions between synoptic scale eddies and the mean flow in early-middle April. The –NPO anomaly forces anomalous northwestward/southward surface ocean currents in the northern/central North Pacific through direct friction of wind and the Coriolis force. Our coupled numerical simulations with high- and low-ozone scenarios also support that the Arctic stratospheric ozone affects the North Pacific surface ocean currents by NPO anomalies. Moreover, the ozone-related ocean current anomalies contribute to Victoria mode-like sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific by horizontal heat advection. These results imply that Arctic ozone signal could be a predictor for variations of the North Pacific surface ocean currents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stratospheric polar vortices play a key role in springtime polar ozone depletion and can influence the stratospheric circulation. In this work, we use the method of vortex delineation based on geopotential values determined from the maximum temperature gradient and maximum wind speed, thus characterizing the edge of the Antarctic polar vortex. Using the vortex delineation method based on the ERA5 reanalysis data for 1979–2019, we characterized the dynamics of the Antarctic polar vortex in the lower stratosphere depending on the prevailing wind speed along the vortex edge. We filtered out cases of weakening of the dynamic barrier, which prevents the penetration of air masses into the polar vortex. We show that in the lower stratosphere the area of the Antarctic polar vortex usually exceeds 10 million km2, the mean wind speed along the vortex edge typically exceeds 30 m/s, and the mean temperature inside the vortex is in most cases less than −50 °C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Utilizing three different sets of reanalysis data, this study examines the long- and short-lived observed positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) events (referred to as NAO+_LE and NAO+_SE) and long- and short-lived observed negative NAO events (referred to as NAO−_LE and NAO−_SE). Composite results indicate that the NAO-like circulation anomalies associated with the long-lived NAO events can reach the stratosphere, while they are primarily confined to the troposphere in the short-lived NAO events. Thus, the coupling/connection of stratospheric and tropospheric circulation anomalies is much better (worse) in the long-lived (short-lived) NAO events. A series of modified stratospheric initial-value experiments conducted with a simplified model indicate that a better (worse) connection between stratospheric and tropospheric circulation anomalies in the initial-value fields tend to gradually induce the NAO-like tropospheric circulation anomalies in the troposphere on the subsequent days, and thus naturally elongate (reduce) the lifetimes of the original NAO events by altering the tropospheric synoptic eddy vorticity flux over the North Atlantic region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stratospheric water vapor feedbacks on climate for abrupt CO2 quadrupling are investigated with the coupled atmosphere–ocean Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate model. A feedback suppression method is used to quantify the stratospheric water vapor climate feedback parameter and the impacts of stratospheric water vapor increases on temperature and circulation. It is found that increases in stratospheric water vapor change the model's net climate feedback parameter by 0.11 W m−2 K−1, contributing to 0.5 K, or 10%, of the global-mean surface warming under abrupt CO2 quadrupling. Stratospheric water vapor increases lead to significant impacts on stratospheric temperature and dynamics. The increases induce stratospheric dynamical changes that strongly modify stratospheric cooling patterns. About 30% of the acceleration of the stratospheric Brewer-Dobson circulation under 4 × CO2 is attributed to the stratospheric water vapor increases. In the troposphere, the stratospheric water vapor feedback plays a role in Arctic amplification and is responsible for 14% of the Arctic warming. It also affects tropospheric circulation, causing greater poleward shift of the northern hemisphere tropospheric midlatitude jet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on ERA-Interim and JRA-55 daily reanalysis datasets, connections among the variations in the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) intensity, stratospheric air mass, surface pressure, and the tropospheric meridional circulation during the period from 1979 to 2015 are analyzed. The results show that the variations in the surface pressure, particularly at middle and high latitudes, have a close correlation with the variations in the stratospheric BDC intensity. When the upwelling at 450 K intensifies, the surface pressure increases in the high latitudes (poleward of 60°) and decreases in the adjacent mid-latitudes in both hemispheres. And these correlations are most significant during boreal winter in the Northern Hemisphere and during austral autumn in the Southern Hemisphere. It is found that the high latitude surface pressure changes follow the anomalous BDC by about 30 days. The increase in polar surface pressure associated with the stronger BDC is due to an increase in stratospheric air mass, while the decrease in mid-latitude surface pressure is related to a decrease in tropospheric air mass. These air mass changes are caused by the anomalous meridional transport of air mass by the residual mean circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere. In addition, we found a significant connection between the intensity of the BDC and the Ferrel cell, i.e., when the BDC strengthens (weakens), there is a weakened (strengthened) Ferrel cell with its position shifting equatorward (poleward). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We revisit the various stratosphere–troposphere coupling relation from the perspective of the meridional mass circulation. We constructed 10-hPa northern annular mode (NAM) phase composites to show the typical spatiotemporal evolution of circulation anomalies during the NAM's life cycle. Our results indicate that there is large case-to-case difference in the temporal evolution and vertical profile of polar temperature anomalies during NAM events, which shows no strong dependence on the intensity and duration of NAM events, but agrees well with the variations of the three branches of mass circulation at 60°N: the stratospheric poleward warm air branch (ST), the poleward warm air branch in the upper troposphere (WB), and the equatorward cold air branch in the lower troposphere (CB). Such correspondence is due to the dynamic heating and cooling anomalies associated with the redistribution of air masses by the anomalous meridional mass circulation in different isentropic layers. The various relationship among the three mass circulation branches is attributed to anomalous wave activities. The amplitude and westward tilt of waves are always stronger (weaker) throughout the stratosphere before (after) the peak time of negative NAM events, leading to a stronger (weaker) ST before (after) the peak time. Variations in WB and CB are mostly dependent on wave variabilities in the mid- to lower troposphere, leading to variations in the timing of in- or out-of-phase coupling of the ST with the WB and CB, and thus various thermostructure during NAM events. At a later stage of the negative NAM events when the polar temperature becomes colder and the polar jet recovers, the weakened baroclinic instability in the lower stratosphere provides favorable conditions for the strengthening of the WB and CB if wave activities strengthen in the troposphere during that period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates the prediction skill for the stratospheric mass circulation variability in winter (November–March) in the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), from 2011 to 2018. Three stratospheric mass circulation indices measuring meridional mass transport into the polar stratosphere by the total flow (ST60N), wavenumber-1 (ST60N_W1), and wavenumber-2 waves (ST60N_W2) are considered. The variability of ST60N is mainly contributed by ST60N_W1 and ST60N_W2, and these indices are good indicators of the timing and locations of the continental-scale cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) at mid-latitudes. Thus, their potentially useful prediction skill can be utilized to make sub-seasonal forecasts of CAOs in a dynamical and statistical hybrid paradigm. Systematic forecast bias is found in both the 7-year averaged winter mean and seasonal cycle, which is tied to the overestimation of damping in amplitude and westward tilting variations of total waves and difficulties in forecasting the exact contributions from different spatial scales of waves. The intraseasonal variations of stratospheric mass circulation indices, with the systematic forecast bias corrected, can be modestly predicted at a forecast lead time of about 20 days, in terms of both the anomaly value and timing of negative and positive peak events. The sub-seasonal predictability of the ST60N value mainly comes from the ST60N_W1, while the predictability of the timing of positive and negative peaks comes from the ST60N_W2. The 20-day prediction limit of the stratospheric mass circulation indices is mainly due to the 2-week limit of the CFSv2 model in predicting the variability of anomalous wave tilt angle, whereas the prediction limit of the wave amplitude anomaly can exceed 50 days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamical processes in the Arctic stratosphere in the winter of 2017/2018 are analyzed using data of the NCEP reanalysis and SABER and MLS satellite measurements. The following features are revealed: the downward propagation of wave activity from the stratosphere to troposphere over Canada in late December and early January, the major sudden stratospheric warming with the zonal wind reversal in February 2018 accompanied by the stratospheric polar vortex splitting, the propagation of stratospheric circulation anomalies to the lower troposphere, the mesospheric cooling, the stratopause height change, and the cooling in the tropical lower stratosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article describes the development of the version of the SL-AV global semi-Lagrangian atmospheric model with high spatial resolution in the stratosphere. The new model version uses the vertical grid of 100 levels, grid spacing of 500 m in the layer between 100 and 10 hPa, and the upper lid at 0.04 hPa. The parameterization of the non-orographic gravity wave drag is implemented. Numerous modifications are introduced in the block for the numerical solution of dynamical equations to enhance model stability. The experiment on atmospheric dynamics modeling for 28 years is carried out. It is shown that the SL-AV model reproduces the main features of stratospheric circulation, such as the polar night stratospheric jet formation and sudden stratospheric warming. The quasi-biennial oscillation of equatorial wind is reproduced with realistic period and amplitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The comparison of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and F10.7 solar flux effects on Total Mass Density (TMD) obtained from NRLMSIS-00 model for 90 km altitude of ionosphere known as Mesosphere-Lower Thermosphere (MLT) region was made statistically. In the results of calculations, it was observed that QBO and F10.7 solar flux have an effect on TMD. It was determined that about 69% of the variations in TMD could be explained by F10.7 and QBO. Also, it was seen that an increase/a decrease of 1 meter per second occurred in QBO gave rise to an increase/a decrease of 2.36 × 10-9 kg/m3 in TMD while an increase/a decrease of 1 s.f.u. in F10.7 gave rise to a decrease/increase of 1.02 × 10-9 kg/m3 in TMD. Based on these results, it was observed that the effects of stratospheric QBO, which is one of the meteorological processes, and F10.7, which is one of the indicators of the solar processes, were nearly at the same rate on TMD of MLT region. Furthermore, the results show that the stratospheric QBO may be a suitable candidate for increasing the anomalous density reductions observed in TMD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since February 2016, the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in zonal wind of the lower stratosphere exhibited anomalous behavior. In more detail, it broke down from its typical pattern and the eastward stratospheric winds unexpectedly reversed to a westward direction. We herewith attempt to detect whether this unprecedented event could be considered as a result of plausible long-range correlations in the QBO temporal evolution. The analyses performed using all the available QBO data sets showed that such an interpretation could not be inferred, because the temporal evolution of the equatorial zonal wind in the lower stratosphere does not exhibit power-law behavior. Further, the natural time analysis of the QBO data indicates precursory behavior before the maximization of the zonal wind velocity and that the recent strong El Niño event might be related with the aforementioned unprecedented behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider three indices to measure the polar stratospheric mass and stratospheric meridional mass circulation variability: anomalies of (1) total mass in the polar stratospheric cap (60-90°N, above the isentropic surface 400 K, PSM), (2) total adiabatic mass transport across 60°N into the polar stratosphere cap (AMT), (3) and total diabetic mass transport across 400 K from the polar stratosphere into the troposphere below (DMT). It is confirmed that the negative stratospheric Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and PSM indices have a nearly indistinguishable temporal evolution and a similar red-noise-like spectrum with a de-correlation timescale of 4 weeks. This enables us to examine the low-frequency nature of the NAM in the framework of mass circulation, namely, ddtPSM=AMT-DMT. The DMT index tends to be positively correlated with the PSM with a red-noise-like spectrum, representing slow radiative cooling processes giving rise to a de-correlation timescale of 3-4 weeks. The AMT is nearly perfectly correlated with the day-to-day tendency of PSM, reflecting a robust quasi 90° out-of-phase relation between the AMT and PSM at all frequency bands. Variations of vertically westward tilting of planetary waves contribute mainly to the high-frequency portion of AMT. It is the wave amplitude’s slow vacillation that plays the leading role in the quasi 90° out-of-phase relation between the AMT and PSM. Based on this, we put forward a linear stochastic model with a low-frequency amplification feedback from low-frequency amplitude vacillations of planetary waves to explain the amplified low-frequency response of PSM/NAM to a stochastic forcing from the westward tilting variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early studies suggested that the Aleutian-Icelandic low seesaw (AIS) features multidecadal variation. In this study, the multidecadal modulation of the AIS and associated surface climate by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during late winter (February-March) is explored with observational data. It is shown that, in the cold phase of the AMO (AMO|−), a clear AIS is established, while this is not the case in the warm phase of the AMO (AMO|+). The surface climate over Eurasia is significantly influenced by the AMO's modulation of the Aleutian low (AL). For example, the weak AL in AMO|− displays warmer surface temperatures over the entire Far East and along the Russian Arctic coast and into Northern Europe, but only over the Russian Far East in AMO|+. Similarly, precipitation decreases over central Europe with the weak AL in AMO|−, but decreases over northern Europe and increases over southern Europe in AMO|+. The mechanism underlying the influence of AMO|− on the AIS can be described as follows: AMO|− weakens the upward component of the Eliassen-Palm flux along the polar waveguide by reducing atmospheric blocking occurrence over the Euro-Atlantic sector, and hence drives an enhanced stratospheric polar vortex. With the intensified polar night jet, the wave trains originating over the central North Pacific can propagate horizontally through North America and extend into the North Atlantic, favoring an eastward-extended Pacific-North America-Atlantic pattern, and resulting in a significant AIS at the surface during late winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results of analysis of variations in the sporadic layer critical frequency ( foEs) for winter periods of 2008-2010 in which sudden stratospheric warmings were observed are presented in the paper. The data were obtained at Kaliningrad ionospheric station (54.6° N, 20° E) by a Parus digital ionosonde under the usual sounding regime with an interval of 15 min. Daily mean values of foEs were used for the analysis. Solar and geomagnetic activity remained low during the periods under study, making it possible to relate the quasiwave time variations in foEs to the parameters of stratospheric warmings. The results of spectral analysis performed on the basis of continuous wavelet transform showed that, during all warmings occurring in 2008-2010, time variations in foEs show the presence of wave processes with a period of an order of 5 days and longer ones with a period of ~10-11 days. These periods coincide with characteristic periods of planetary waves observed in the atmosphere during sudden stratospheric warnings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the data of meteorological information reanalysis, a statistical analysis of dates of the main sudden stratospheric warmings observed in 1958-2014 has been performed and their inhomogeneous distribution in winter months with maximums in the beginning of January, from the end of January to the beginning of February, and in the end of February has been shown. To explain these regularities, a climatological analysis of variations in the amplitudes and vertical components of Eliassen-Palm fluxes created by large-scale planetary waves (PWs), as well as of zonal-mean winds and deviations of temperature from their winter-average values in high northern latitudes at heights of up to 50 km from the surface has been carried out using the 20-year (1995-2014) collection of daily meteorological information from the UK Met Office database. During the aforementioned intervals of observing more frequent sudden stratospheric warmings, climatological maximums of temperature perturbations, local minimums of eastward winds, and local maximums of the amplitude and Eliassen-Palm fluxes of PWs with a zonal wavenumber of 1 in the high-latitude northern stratosphere were found. Distinctions between atmospheric characteristics averaged over two last decades have been revealed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concurrent effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the northern winter stratosphere have been widely recognized; however, the delayed effects of ENSO in the next winter after mature ENSO have yet to be confirmed in multi reanalyses and model simulations. This study uses three reanalysis datasets, a long-term fully coupled model simulation, and a high-top general circulation model to examine ENSO's delayed effects in the stratosphere. The warm-minus-cold composite analyses consistently showed that, except those quick-decaying quasi-biennial ENSO events that reverse signs during July-August-September (JAS) in their decay years, ENSO events particularly those quasi-quadrennial (QQ) that persist through JAS, always have a significant effect on the extratropical stratosphere in both the concurrent winter and the next winter following mature ENSO. During the concurrent winter, the QQ ENSO-induced Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern corresponds to an anomalous wavenumber-1 from the upper troposphere to the stratosphere, which acts to intensify/weaken the climatological wave pattern during warm/cold ENSO. Associated with the zonally quasi-homogeneous tropical forcing in spring of the QQ ENSO decay years, there appear persistent and zonally quasi-homogeneous temperature anomalies in the midlatitudes from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere until summer. With the reduction in ENSO forcing and the PNA responses in the following winter, an anomalous wavenumber-2 prevails in the extratropics. Although the anomalous wave flux divergence in the upper stratospheric layer is still dominated by wavenumber-1, it is mainly caused by wavenumber-2 in the lower stratosphere. However, the wavenumber-2 activity in the next winter is always underestimated in the model simulations, and wavenumber-1 activity dominates in both winters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper investigates the asymmetrical variability of the location of the north and the south equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crests in the East-Asian sector, along with their association with simultaneous observations of equatorial electrojet (EEJ) strength, geomagnetic activity index, and solar flux index during the 2002-2003 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. Analysis of these observations indicates the existence of a large-scale quasi 16-day periodic meridional movement in both EIA crests, and also reveals a strong correlation between the quasi 16-day oscillation in geomagnetic latitudes of the EIA crest and EEJ strength. The latitude of the northern/southern EIA crest and the EEJ strength indicate that obvious synchronous periodic oscillations were in-phase in the northern and southern hemisphere when the SSW occurred. In addition, it is also found that both the EIA crest location and amplitude of the periodic movement of the EIA locations exhibit hemispheric asymmetry. The amplitude of the periodic movement of the EIA location in the southern hemisphere is larger than that of the northern hemisphere, and the southern EIA crest is further off from the equator than the north one. Understanding these asymmetries requires a combination of mechanisms that involve at least trans-equator meridional winds and the position of a sub-solar point; however, potential disturbances in neutral winds associated with the SSW may additionally complicate the equatorial ionospheric dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess the interactions between stratospheric water vapor (SWV) and surface temperature during the past two decades using satellite observations and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). From 1992 to 2013, to first order, the observed SWV exhibited three distinct piece-wise trends: a steady increase from 1992 to 2000, an abrupt drop from 2000 to 2004, and a gradual recovery after 2004, while the global-mean surface temperature experienced a strong increase until 2000 and a warming hiatus after 2000. The atmosphere-only CESM shows that the seasonal variation of tropical-mean (30°S-30°N) SWV is anticorrelated with that of the tropical-mean sea surface temperature (SST), while the correlation between the tropical SWV and SST anomalies on the interannual time scale is rather weak. By nudging the modeled SWV to prescribed profiles in coupled atmosphere-slab ocean experiments, we investigate the impact of SWV variations on surface temperature change. We find that a uniform 1 ppmv (0.5 ppmv) SWV increase (decrease) leads to an equilibrium global mean surface warming (cooling) of 0.12 ± 0.05 °C (−0.07 ± 0.05 °C). Sensitivity experiments show that the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to SWV perturbations over the extratropics is larger than that over the tropics. The observed sudden drop of SWV from 2000 to 2004 produces a global mean surface cooling of about −0.048 ± 0.041 °C, which suggests that a persistent change in SWV would make an imprint on long-term variations of global-mean surface temperature. A constant linear increase in SWV based on the satellite-observed rate of SWV change yields a global mean surface warming of 0.03 ± 0.01 °C/decade over a 50-year period, which accounts for about 19 % of the observed surface temperature increase prior to the warming hiatus. In the same experiment, trend analyses during different periods reveal a multi-year adjustment of surface temperature before the response to SWV forcing becomes strong relative to the internal variability in the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a detailed view of the seasonal variability of upper-level cut-off lows (COLs) in the Southern Hemisphere. The COLs are identified and tracked using data from a 36-year period of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast reanalysis (ERA-Interim). The objective identification of the COLs uses a new approach, which is based on 300 hPa relative vorticity minima, and three restrictive criteria of the presence of a cold-core, stratospheric potential vorticity intrusion, and cut-off cyclonic circulation. The highest COL activity is in agreement with previous studies, located near three main continental areas (Australia, South America, and Africa), with maximum frequencies usually observed in the austral autumn. The COL mean intensity values show a marked seasonal and spatial variation, with maximum (minimum) values during the austral winter (summer), a unique feature that has not been observed previously in studies based on the geopotential. The link between intensity and lysis is examined, and finds that weaker systems are more susceptible to lysis in the vicinity of the Andes Cordillera, associated with the topographic Rossby wave. Lysis and genesis regions are close to each other, confirming that COLs are quasi-stationary systems. Also, COLs tend to move eastward and are faster over the higher latitudes. The mean growth/decay rates coincide with the major genesis and lysis density regions, such as the significant decay values across the Andes all year. As a consequence of using vorticity for the tracking method a longer lifetime of COLs is detected than in other studies, but this does not affect the total frequency of occurrence. Comparisons with other studies suggest that the differences in seasonality are due to uncertainties in the reanalyses and the methods used to identify COLs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term correlations between the state of low clouds and variations in the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) were studied. It has been shown that the links between low cloud anomalies and GCR fluxes at midlatitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are caused by variations in the extratropical cyclogenesis intensity which correlated with changes of GCR fluxes in the period from the early 1980s to 2000. At the beginning of the 2000s, the correlation between cloudiness and variations of GCR fluxes was violated, a possible reason being a sharp weakening of the stratospheric polar vortices in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, which resulted in the change of GCR contribution to the circulation of the lower atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the results of studying the dynamics of middle-atmosphere ozone above Peterhof (60°N, 30°E) and Tomsk (56°N, 85°E) during stratospheric warming in the winter of 2013-2014 by the radiophysical method. In the ground-based observations we used the same microwave ozone meters (operated at 110.8 GHz) and the same techniques both for measuring the radiation spectra of ozone molecules and estimation of the vertical distribution of ozone in the middle atmosphere. These results were compared with satellite data on the total ozone content TOC (OMI/Aura), altitude profiles of ozone and temperature in the layer 20-60 km (MLS/Aura), and also with the data on ozone content in the layer 25-60 km, which were obtained using a Bruker IFS-125HR infrared Fourier spectrometer in Peterhof. Significant variations in ozone, which were caused by a stratospheric warming of the minor type, were observed in the atmosphere above Peterhof at altitudes of 40 to 60 km. The duration of dynamic perturbations above Peterhof was 2.5 months. Dynamic processes associated with the horizontal transport of air masses, which had an impact on the vertical structure of ozone in the middle atmosphere, were also detected above Tomsk, but this effect was less dependent on the background temperature variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gravity waves are primarily generated in the lower atmosphere, and can reach thermospheric heights in the course of their propagation. This paper reviews the recent progress in understanding the role of gravity waves in vertical coupling during sudden stratospheric warmings. Modeling of gravity wave effects is briefly reviewed, and the recent developments in the field are presented. Then, the impact of these waves on the general circulation of the upper atmosphere is outlined. Finally, the role of gravity waves in vertical coupling between the lower and the upper atmosphere is discussed in the context of sudden stratospheric warmings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study applies WACCM, a stratosphere-resolving model to dissect the stratospheric responses in the northern winter extratropics to the imposed ENSO-related SST anomalies in the tropics. It is found that the anomalously warmer and weaker stratospheric polar vortex during warm ENSO is basically a balance of the opposite effects between the SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific (TPO) and that over the tropical Indian Ocean basin (TIO). Specifically, the ENSO-related SST anomalies over the TIO are to induce an anomalously colder and stronger stratospheric polar vortex during warm ENSO, which acts to partially cancel out the much stronger warmer and weaker polar vortex response to the SST anomalies over the TPO. Further analysis indicates that, while the SST forcing from the TPO contributes to the anomalously positive Pacific North America (PNA) pattern in the troposphere and the enhancement of the stationary wavenumber (WN)-1 in the stratosphere during warm ENSO, the TIO SST forcing is to induce an anomalously negative PNA and a reduction of both WN-1 and WN-2 in the stratosphere. Diagnosis of E-P flux confirms that, the anomalously upward propagation of stationary waves in the extratropics mainly lies over the western coast of North America during warm ENSO, which is mainly associated with the TPO-induced positive PNA response and is partially suppressed by the effect of the accompanying TIO SST forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variations and trends in the total ozone (TO) content over the period 1979-2014 are studied using monthly mean data from ERA-Interim reanalysis database in different latitudinal belts and TOMS/SBUV/OMI satellite data. We estimated how TO variations, averaged over different latitudinal belts and globally, are modulated by Arctic and Antarctic oscillations, quasi-biennial oscillations of zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, zonal average meridional heat flux in the lower stratosphere, solar activity (SA), stratospheric content of ozone-depleting substances (ODS), and volcanic aerosol particles. Variations in global TO can be described well using regression dependence on ODS and SA; and certain of the above-mentioned factors should be additionally taken into consideration for a more accurate quantitative description of TO time behavior in certain latitudinal belts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The nature of long-term correlations between low cloud anomalies and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity, as well as possible causes of variations in the character of these correlations in the early 2000s, were studied. It was shown that the influence of GCRs on a cloud state at midlatitudes is closely related to GCR effects on variations in extratropical cyclogenesis intensity. The high positive correlation coefficients between low clouds and GCR fluxes observed in 1983-2000 were caused by the fact that increases in GCR fluxes during this period were accompanied by an intensification of cyclonic activity at midlatitudes. The correlation between clouds and GCR fluxes in the early 2000s was possibly violated, because the sign of GCR effects on the development of extratropical baric systems reversed as a result of a change in the stratospheric polar vortex state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A parallel comparison is made of the circulation climatology and the leading oscillation mode of the northern winter stratosphere among six reanalysis products and 24 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. The results reveal that the NCEP/NCAR, NECP/DOE, ERA40, ERA-Interim and JRA25 reanalyses are quite consistent in describing the climatology and annual cycle of the stratospheric circulation. The 20CR reanalysis, however, exhibits a remarkable 'cold pole' bias accompanied by a much stronger stratospheric polar jet, similar as in some CMIP5 models. Compared to the 1-2 month seasonal drift in most coupled general circulation models (GCMs), the seasonal cycle of the stratospheric zonal wind in most earth system models (ESMs) agrees very well with reanalysis. Similar to the climatology, the amplitude of Polar Vortex Oscillation (PVO) events also varies among CMIP5 models. The PVO amplitude in most GCMs is relatively weaker than in reanalysis, while that in most of the ESMs is more realistic. In relation to the 'cold pole' bias and the weaker oscillation in some CMIP5 GCMs, the frequency of PVO events is significantly underestimated by CMIP5 GCMs; while in most ESMs, it is comparable to that in reanalysis. The PVO events in reanalysis (except in 20CR) mainly occur from mid-winter to early spring (January-March); but in some of the CMIP5 models, a 1-2 month delay exists, especially in most of the CMIP5 GCMs. The long-term trend of the PVO time series does not correspond to long-term changes in the frequency of PVO events in most of the CMIP5 models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A powerful influence on the weather that we experience on the ground can be exerted by the stratosphere. This highly stratified layer of Earth's atmosphere is found 10 to 50 kilometres above the surface and therefore above the weather systems that develop in the troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere. The troposphere is dynamically coupled to fluctuations in the speed of the circumpolar westerly jet that forms in the winter stratosphere: a strengthening circumpolar jet causes a poleward shift in the storm tracks and tropospheric jet stream, whereas a weakening jet causes a shift towards the equator. Following a weakening of the stratospheric jet, impacts on the surface weather include a higher likelihood of extremely low temperature over northern Europe and the eastern USA. Eddy feedbacks in the troposphere amplify the surface impacts, but the mechanisms underlying these dynamics are not fully understood. The same dynamical relationships act at very different timescales, ranging from daily variations to longer-term climate trends, suggesting a single unifying mechanism across timescales. Ultimately, an improved understanding of the dynamical links between the stratosphere and troposphere is expected to lead to improved confidence in both long-range weather forecasts and climate change projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model, we analyzed the atmospheric responses to increases in sea surface temperature (SST). The results showed that increases in SST and the SST meridional gradient could intensify the subtropical westerly jets and significantly weaken the northern polar vortex. In the model runs, global uniform SST increases produced a more significant impact on the southern stratosphere than the northern stratosphere, while SST gradient increases produced a more significant impact on the northern stratosphere. The asymmetric responses of the northern and southern polar stratosphere to SST meridional gradient changes were found to be mainly due to different wave properties and transmissions in the northern and southern atmosphere. Although SST increases may give rise to stronger waves, the results showed that the effect of SST increases on the vertical propagation of tropospheric waves into the stratosphere will vary with height and latitude and be sensitive to SST meridional gradient changes. Both uniform and non-uniform SST increases accelerated the large-scale Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), but the gradient increases of SST between 60°S and 60°N resulted in younger mean age-of-air in the stratosphere and a larger increase in tropical upwelling, with a much higher tropopause than from a global uniform 1.0 K SST increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the daily NCEP/DOE reanalysis II data, dates of the boreal spring Stratospheric Final Warming (SFW) events during 1979-2010 are defined as the time when the zonal-mean zonal wind at the central latitudes (65°-75°N) of the westerly polar jet drops below zero and never recovers until the subsequent autumn. It is found that the SFW events occur successively from the mid to the lower stratosphere and averagely from the mid to late April with a temporal lag of about 13 days from 10 to 50 hPa. Over the past 32 years, the earliest SFW occurs in mid March whereas the latest SFW happens in late May, showing a clear interannual variability of the time of SFW. Accompanying the SFW onset, the stratospheric circulation transits from a winter dynamical regime to a summertime state, and the maximum negative tendency of zonal wind and the strongest convergence of planetary-wave are observed. Composite results show that the early/late SFW events in boreal spring correspond to a quicker/ slower transition of the stratospheric circulation, with the zonal-mean zonal wind reducing about 20/5 m s at 30 hPa within 10 days around the onset date. Meanwhile, the planetary wave activities are relatively strong/weak associating with an out-of-/in-phase circumpolar circulation anomaly before and after the SFW events in the stratosphere. All these results indicate that, the earlier breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), as for the winter stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events is driven mainly by wave forcing; and in contrast, the later breakdown of the SPV exhibits more characteristics of its seasonal evolution. Nevertheless, after the breakdown of SPV, the polar temperature anomalies always exhibit an out-of-phase relationship between the stratosphere and the troposphere for both the early and late SFW events, which implies an intimate stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling in spring. In addition, there exists a remarkable interdecadal change of the onset time of SFW in the mid 1990s. On average, the SFW onset time before the mid 1990s is 11 days earlier than that afterwards, corresponding to the increased/decreased planetary wave activities in late winter-early spring before/after the 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presented is a review of the papers dealing with a problem of the tropopause definition as an interface between the troposphere and stratosphere. It is demonstrated that there are more than ten approaches to the tropopause identification based on the differences in thermal, chemical, dynamic, and radiation regimes of the troposphere and stratosphere. Given are the examples of the tropopause approximation with different surfaces or layers of specific properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is a natural part of the global climate system resulting from the interactions between large-scale ocean atmospheric circulation processes in the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans. In Guyana, for all the adverse weather and extreme hydrological events, the blame goes to El Niño or La Niña. This paper investigates the relationship between ENSO and three Guyanese river flows; the Demarara, Essequibo and Mazaruni. This work sheds some light on the effects of this phenomenon on these river flows which may be useful for the adaptation policies dealing with the impacts of ENSO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) meteorology and measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder, High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder, and Ozone Monitoring Instrument onboard the Earth Observing System Aura satellite were applied to analyze the dynamical and chemical features of a cutoff low (COL) event over northeast China in early July 2007. The results showed the polar stratospheric origin of an upper-level warm-core cyclone at 100-300 hPa, associated with a funnel-shaped tropopause intruding into the mid-troposphere just above the COL center. The impacts of the stratospheric intrusion on both column ozone and ozone profiles were investigated using satellite measurements. When the intensity of the COL peaked on 10 July 2007, the total column ozone (TCO) increase reached a maximum (40-70 DU). This could be dynamically attributed to both the descent of the tropopause (∼75%) and the downward transport of stratospheric ozone across the tropopause (∼25%). Analysis of the tropospheric ozone profiles provided evidence for irreversible transport/mixing of ozone-rich stratospheric air across the tropopause near the upper-level front region ahead of the COL center. This ozone intrusion underwent downstream transport by the upper tropospheric winds, leading to further increase in TCO by 12-16 DU over broad regions extending from east China toward the northern Japan Sea via South Korea. Meteorological analysis also showed the precedence of the stratospheric intrusion ahead of the development of cyclones in the middle and lower troposphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A study of the response of the thermosphere and ionosphere to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) which occurred in January of 2008 and 2009 is presented. The Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, and Protonosphere (GSM TIP) developed in the West Department of IZMIRAN was a theoretical basis for this study. A comparison of the simulation results of the thermosphere-ionosphere response to SSW events with the observational data over Irkutsk and also with theoretical and experimental studies carried out during the recent years is performed. SSW events were modeled by setting disturbances in the neutral temperature and density at the lower boundary of the GSM TIP model (80 km above the Earth's surface). It is shown that the disturbances related to SSW lead to substantial global effects in the thermosphere and ionosphere. The analysis of the experimental data showed that, in spite of very similar solar and geophysical conditions on the background of which two considered stratospheric warming events happened, the occurring disturbances in temperature at heights of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere differ substantially from each other, although some common regularities still take place especially at heights of the ionospheric F region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study for the first time reports the global gravity wave activity in terms of their potential energy derived from TIMED/SABER observations right from the stratosphere to the mesosphere lower thermosphere (MLT) region. The potential energy profiles obtained from SABER temperature are validated by comparing them with ground based LIDAR observations over a low latitude site, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E). The stratospheric and mesospheric global maps of gravity wave energy showed pronounced maxima over high and polar latitudes of the winter hemisphere. The interannual variability of the stratospheric gravity wave activity exhibited prominent annual oscillation over mid-latitudes. The equatorial gravity wave activity exhibited quasi-biennial oscillation in the lower stratosphere and semi-annual oscillation in the upper stratosphere. The MLT region maps revealed summer hemispheric maxima over polar latitudes and secondary maxima over the equatorial region. The results are discussed in the light of present understanding of global gravity wave observations. The significance of the present study lies in emphasizing the importance of satellite measurements in elucidating gravity waves, which is envisaged to have profound impact on parameterizing these waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stratospheric polar vortex breakup (SPVB) is an important phenomenon closely related to the seasonal transition of stratospheric circulation. In this paper, 62-year NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data were employed to investigate the distinction between early and late SPVB. The results showed that the anomalous circulation signals extending from the stratosphere to the troposphere were reversed before and after early SPVB, while the stratospheric signals were consistent before and after the onset of late SPVB. Arctic Oscillation (AO) evolution during the life cycle of SPVB also demonstrated that the negative AO signal can propagate downward after early SPVB. Such downward AO signals could be identified in both geopotential height and temperature anomalies. After the AO signal reached the lower troposphere, it influenced the Aleutian Low and Siberian High in the troposphere, leading to a weak winter monsoon and large-scale warming at mid latitudes in Asia. Compared to early SPVB, downward propagation was not evident in late SPVB. The high-latitude tropospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere was affected by early SPVB, causing it to enter a summer circulation pattern earlier than in late SPVB years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) circulation from the Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction (DEMETER) hindcasts was evaluated against observation reanalysis data. We evaluated the DEMETER coupled general circulation models (CGCMs)' retrospective prediction of the typical EAWM and its associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that the EAWM can be reasonably predicted with statistically significant accuracy, yet the major bias of the hindcast models is the underestimation of the related anomalies. The temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) of the MME-produced EAWM index, defined as the first EOF mode of 850-hPa air temperature within the EAWM domain (20°-60°N, 90°-150°E), was 0.595. This coefficient was higher than those of the corresponding individual models (range: 0.39-0.51) for the period 1969-2001; this result indicates the advantage of the super-ensemble approach. This study also showed that the ensemble models can reasonably reproduce the major modes and their interannual variabilities for sea level pressure, geopotential height, surface air temperature, and wind fields in Eurasia. Therefore, the prediction of EAWM interannual variability is feasible using multimodel ensemble systems and that they may also reveal the associated mechanisms of the EAWM interannual variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, the exceptional winter (DJF) of 2009 has been analyzed. The middle-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere suffered from a nearly zonally symmetric anomaly of temperature and pressure. This situation revealed that two negative AO events occurred in the winter of 2009/2010, with unprecedented low values in January 2009 and February 2010. The negative AO event in January 2009 can be further divided into two stages: the first stage was mainly driven by enhanced upward-propagating planetary waves, which led to a weak stratospheric polar vortex associated with a downward-propagating negative AO signal; the second stage was caused by a lower tropospheric positive temperature anomaly in the high latitudes, which maintained the positive geopotential height anomaly of the first stage. The two successively occurring stages interacted and caused the lower troposphere to experience a strong and lengthy persistence of the negative AO event. We consider that the second event of negative AO in February 2010 is related to the downward-propagating negative AO after sudden stratospheric warming. Eleven long-persistence negative AO events were analyzed using reanalysis data. The results suggest that the negative AO in the troposphere might have been caused by stratospheric sudden warming, a downward-propagating weak stratospheric circulation anomaly or dynamic processes in the troposphere. Further study shows that the negative phase of the AO in the winter of 2009/2010 corresponded to a wide range of temperature and precipitation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, to improve the accuracy of weather forecasting and climate prediction, more attention should be paid to the AO anomaly and its impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and its association with the interannual variability in the stratosphere and troposphere, as well as in tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), are examined in the context of a QBO life cycle. The analysis is based on the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, radiosonde observations at Singapore, and other observation-based datasets. Both reanalyses reproduce the QBO life cycle and its associated variability in the stratosphere reasonably well, except that some long-term changes are detected only in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In order to separate QBO from variability on other time scales and to eliminate the long-term changes, a scale separation technique [Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD)] is applied to the raw data. The QBO component of zonal wind anomalies at 30 hPa, extracted using the EEMD method, is defined as a QBO index. Using this index, the QBO life cycle composites of stratosphere and troposphere variables, as well as SSTA, are constructed and examined. The composite features in the stratosphere are generally consistent with previous investigations. The correlations between the QBO and tropical Pacific SSTA depend on the phase in a QBO life cycle. On average, cold (warm) SSTA peaks about half a year after the maximum westerlies (easterlies) at 30 hPa. The connection of the QBO with the troposphere seems to be associated with the differences of temperature anomalies between the stratosphere and troposphere. While the anomalies in the stratosphere propagate downward systematically, some anomalies in the troposphere develop and expand vertically. Therefore, it is possible that the temperature difference between the troposphere and stratosphere may alter the atmospheric stability and tropical deep convection, which modulates the Walker circulation and SSTA in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]