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This paper investigates the long-debated economic relationship between prices and interest rates through two macroeconomic relationships, the Gibson paradox and the Fisher effect. We use recent advances in applied econometrics and quarterly frequency data for the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and E7 (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey) countries. We also use the Schmelzing (2019) new data on advanced economy inflation rates and interest rates to investigate the Fisherian link in eight advanced economies (France, Germany, Holland, Italy, Japan, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States) across eight centuries. The overall conclusion of the paper demonstrates poor evidence of the Gibson paradox and the Fisher effect across developed and emerging economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relative significance of oil supply, oil demand, and monetary policy shocks in explaining US macroeconomic variations. We analyze impulse response functions and variance decomposition to assess the relative importance of these shocks. Using a Bayesian structural VAR framework and the penalty function approach, we identify the shocks of interest. We find that oil supply shocks explain less than 3% of the variation in output, but have a relatively larger impact on inflation, accounting for around 13% of the inflation variation. Oil demand shocks explain 3% of output variation, but contribute significantly to inflation variation (around 16%). In contrast, monetary policy shocks have a greater influence on output, explaining approximately 13% of the observed variation. Monetary policy shocks are also the most influential source of inflation variation, contributing over 24% to the overall variation. Based on historical variance decomposition, we find that the recent inflation surge is attributable to both monetary expansion and oil supply factors. Overall, the study highlights the dominance of monetary policy shocks in explaining US macroeconomic fluctuations, with oil supply and demand shocks playing secondary roles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a Markov regime switching structural GARCH-in-Mean VAR model for the inflation rate, the output gap, and a short-term nominal interest rate, to investigate the relationship between inflation uncertainty and economic activity in the USA. We find that inflation uncertainty has a negative and statistically significant effect on the output gap. Also, inflation shocks have a negative effect on the output gap, irrespective of whether they are positive or negative, with the asymmetry being caused by the negative effects of inflation uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we compare the dynamics of the growth rates of the original Divisia monetary aggregates, the credit card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates, and the credit card-augmented Divisia inside monetary aggregates. This analysis is based on the methods of recurrence plots, recurrence quantification analysis, and visual boundary recurrence plots which are phase space methods designed to depict the underlying dynamics of the system under study. We identify the events that affected Divisia money growth and point out the differences among the different Divisia monetary aggregates based on the recurrence and visual boundary recurrence plots. We argue that the broad Divisia monetary aggregates could be used for monetary policy and business cycle analysis as they are exhibiting less fluctuation compared to the narrow Divisia monetary aggregates. They could positively affect policy decisions regarding environmental choices and sustainability. We also point out the changes in the monetary dynamics locating the 2008 global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we study the impact of international capital flows on the real exchange rate and sector allocation of labour and capital in open developing economies having demand side asymmetries (non-homothetic preferences) and supply side asymmetries (differences in capital intensities and productivity growth rates across sectors). We propose new channels, namely structural change and unbalanced growth, through which international capital flows can cause real exchange rate changes and sector reallocations of capital and labor in open developing economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationship between the price of oil and real output in the United States in the context of a Markov regime switching, identified, structural GARCH-in-Mean VAR model with copulas. We use the copula method to investigate the nonlinear dependence structure, as well as (upper and lower) tail dependence, between the price of oil and real output growth, and Markov regime switching to account for changing oil price dynamics over the sample period. We find an asymmetric negative dependence structure between oil price and output growth shocks and that oil price uncertainty has a negative and statistically significant effect on real output growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess the relative importance of fiscal and monetary policy shocks in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in the United States. Using a Bayesian structural vector autoregressive model, we identify fiscal and monetary policy shocks based on a penalty function approach. We find that monetary policy shocks are relatively more important than fiscal policy shocks in explaining key macroeconomic variations and especially inflation variations. Our results provide evidence in support of a monetarist explanation of US business cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use weekly changes in the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet as a policy tool that has largely been ignored in the literature to investigate the relationship between the unconventional monetary policy and stock market returns when the federal funds rate reaches the zero lower bound. Our empirical framework is based on a structural VAR that is identified using heteroscedasticity in weekly data on the components of the Fed's balance sheet. We find evidence that the unconventional expansionary monetary policy is effective in stimulating the stock market, as it has positive and statistically significant effects on stock returns. In extending our analysis to disaggregate returns, our findings suggest heterogenous and asymmetric responses of disaggregate returns to an unconventional policy shock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate whether the United States economy responds negatively to oil price uncertainty and whether oil price shocks exert asymmetric effects on economic activity. In doing so, we use monthly data and modify the (Elder and Serletis J Money Credit Bank 42, 1138–1159, 2010) bivariate structural GARCH-in-Mean VAR to accommodate the interaction between oil price uncertainty and the climate risk factors recently constructed by Faccini et al. (2021). We find evidence that oil price uncertainty has a negative and statistically significant effect on the growth rate only when it intereacts with the Faccini et al. (2021) international summits textual factor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a semiparametric GARCH-in-Mean copula model to examine the price evolution and volatility dynamics of crude oil, natural gas, and hydrocarbon gas liquids markets using data from January 2002 to December 2021. We find that uncertainty has a positive and statistically significant effect on the returns of crude oil and natural gas, but has a negative and statistically significant effect on ethane returns. We also find that the Frank copula is the best copula to describe the (bivariate) dependence structures between the crude oil, natural gas, and hydrocarbon gas liquids markets, except for the relationship between ethane and butane where the Clayton copula is the most fitted copula. It suggests that weak lower and upper tail dependence exists between the energy returns, and there is statistically significant lower tail dependence between ethane and butane. In other words, extremely low crude oil prices are associated with low prices of natural gas and hydrocarbon gas liquids, and vice versa. When ethane returns go down, there is excess comovement in the returns of butane. Moreover, the tail dependence is strongest between crude oil and natural gas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We construct recurrence plots (RPs) and conduct recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to investigate the dynamic properties of the new Center for Financial Stability (CFS) Divisia monetary aggregates for the United States. In this study, we use the latest vintage of Divisia aggregates, maintained within CFS. We use monthly data, from January 1967 to December 2020, which is a sample period that includes the extreme economic events of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis. We then make comparisons between narrow and broad Divisia money measures and find evidence of a nonlinear but reserved possible chaotic explanation of their origin. The application of RPs to broad Divisia monetary aggregates encompasses an additional drift structure around the global financial crisis in 2008. Applying the moving window RQA to the growth rates of narrow and broad Divisia monetary aggregates, we identify periods of changes in data-generating processes and associate such changes to monetary policy regimes and financial innovations that occurred during those times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the volatility dynamics of commodity price and the dependence structure between commodity prices and output growth in the G7 and EM7 economies using a semiparametric GARCH-in-Mean copula approach. We show that for the G7 economies, a symmetric weak tail dependence exists between commodity prices and outputs in France, Germany, and Japan. For the EM7 economies, a lower tail dependence is observed between commodity prices and output growth in Brazil, and a symmetric weak tail dependence is observed in Indonesia. No statistically significant tail dependence between commodity prices and output growth is found for the rest of the G7 and EM7 economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of unanticipated increases in share prices on economic activity in the G7 countries — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Share prices contain information about the current and future state of the economy. We investigate whether different measures of optimism, all of which contain the unanticipated increase in share prices, affect key macroeconomic variations. In particular, do bouts of optimism stimulate economic growth? If so, are the economic booms sustained for a long period of time? To answer our research questions, we use structural vector autoregression models, and three different identification strategies. We address the interdependence between interest rate shocks and stock market shocks, using short-run and long-run restrictions, as in Bjørnland and Leitemo (J Monet Econ 56(2): 275–282, 2009). We use pure sign restrictions, as in Uhlig (J Monet Econ 52(2): 381–419, 2005). We also implement the theory and numerical algorithms for zero and sign restrictions, recently developed by Arias et al. (Econometrica 86(2): 685–720, 2018). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivated by recent research suggesting that uncertainty and financial shocks have become the most important sources of business cycle fluctuations, we assess the relative importance of monetary policy, uncertainty, and financial shocks in explaining key macroeconomic variations. Using a Bayesian monetary structural vector autoregressive model augmented with measures of uncertainty and tightness of financial conditions, we identify monetary policy, uncertainty, and financial shocks based on a penalty function approach. We find that uncertainty shocks have become a relatively more important source of output fluctuations than traditional monetary policy shocks and financial shocks. We also find that monetary policy shocks outperform uncertainty and financial shocks in explaining inflation dynamics and that financial shocks are relatively more important than monetary policy and uncertainty shocks in explaining the swings in the stock market. However, these shocks are not the major driver of exchange rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy shocks and uncertainty about monetary policy on key macroeconomic variables and interest rate spreads — the term spread and credit spread. We use monthly data for the United States and a multivariate structural GARCH-in-Mean VAR model to estimate the effects on the growth rate of real output, the inflation rate, term spread, credit spread, and the policy rate. We find statistically significant effects on all economic and financial variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We address the estimation of singular demand systems with heteroscedastic disturbances. As in Serletis and Isakin (Econ Rev 36:1111–1122, 2017) and Serletis and Xu (Empir Econ, 2019, forthcoming) we assume that the covariance matrix of the errors of the demand system is time-varying, and contribute to the literature by considering the constant conditional correlation and dynamic conditional correlation parameterizations of the variance model. We derive a number of important practical results and also provide an empirical application to support our methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We address the estimation of singular demand systems with heteroscedastic disturbances. We relax the homoscedasticity assumption and instead assume that the covariance matrix of the errors of the demand system is time varying. In doing so, we consider the VECH and BEKK parameterizations of the variance model. We analytically prove the invariance of the maximum likelihood estimator with respect to the choice of the good deleted from a singular demand system and also prove a number of important practical results regarding how to recover the mean and variance equation parameters (and their standard errors) of the full demand system from those of any subsystem obtained by deleting an arbitrary good. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do cryptocurrency prices evolve? Is there any interdependence among cryptocurrency returns and/or volatilities? Are there any return spillovers and volatility spillovers between the cryptocurrency market and other financial markets? To answer these questions, we use GARCH-in-mean models to examine the relationship between volatility and returns of leading cryptocurrencies, to investigate spillovers within the cryptocurrency market, and also from the cryptocurrency market to other financial markets. Overall, we find statistically significant transmission of shocks and volatilities among the leading cryptocurrencies. We also find statistically significant spillover effects from the cryptocurrency market to other financial markets in the United States, as well as in other leading economies (Germany, the United Kingdom, and Japan). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores for spillovers from monetary policy in the United States to a number of advanced countries, namely Canada, Denmark, the Eurozone, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. We use monthly data, from January 1997 to December 2017, and a bivariate structural GARCH-in-Mean VAR to investigate the effects of positive and negative U.S. monetary policy shocks, and also whether monetary policy uncertainty in the United States has had statistically significant spillover effects on each of the other advanced countries. Our evidence suggests that positive (negative) U.S. monetary policy shocks increase (reduce) the policy rate in each of the other countries, and that monetary policy uncertainty in the United States has a negative and statistically significant effect on the monetary policy rate of each of the other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the impact of supply and demand shocks in the global crude oil market on the CDX spread, in the context of a structural VAR model based on monthly data, over the period from November 2003 to October 2015. We find that the reaction of the CDX spread to changes in the real price of crude oil differs considerably depending on the sources of shocks. In the long run, crude oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and oil-specific demand shocks together account for nearly 90% of the variation of the CDX spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs linear and nonlinear causality tests to examine (for the first time) the dynamic relation between broker-dealer leverage and the stock market in the United States, using quarterly data since 1967. We find significant linear causality from the stock market to broker-dealer leverage and a nonlinear feedback from broker-dealer leverage to the stock market, supporting the view that the macro economy is highly nonlinear. This bidirectional causality shows that a stock market crash might happen long before a fall in fundamental asset values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate the shadow prices of CO2 emissions of electric utilities in the US over the period from 2001 to 2014, using a random-coefficient, random-directional-vector directional output distance function (DODF) model. The main feature of this model is that both its coefficients and directional vector are allowed to vary across firms, thus allowing different firms to have different production technologies and to follow different growth paths. Our Bayes factor analysis indicates that this model is strongly favored over the commonly used fixed-coefficient DODF model. Our results obtained from this model suggest that the average annual shadow price of CO2 emissions ranges from $61.62 to $105.72 (in 2001 dollars) with an average of $83.12. The results also suggest that the firm-specific average shadow price differs significantly across electric utilities. In addition, our estimates of the shadow price of CO2 emissions show an upward trend for both the sample electric utilities as a whole and the majority of the individual sample electric utilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fiscal theory of the price level represents a significant departure from the quantity theory of money, as it implies that active (non-Ricardian) fiscal policy provides the nominal anchor and determines the price level. In this paper we take a first pass at integrating discussion of financial frictions and the fiscal theory of the price level. We first present empirical evidence in support of non-Ricardian fiscal policy, and then discuss the fiscal theory of the price level in a world with financial frictions. After illustrating how the financial friction influences the price level, we provide a theoretical explanation to our empirical findings. We also argue that the financial friction, which is related to fiscal policy, provides an additional instrument tool to the fiscal authority and an advantage over the monetary authority in choosing the equilibrium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

B Correction to b B : b B Financ Innov (2023) 9:16 b https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-022-00419-5 Following publication of the original article (Andreadis et al. [1]), the authors reported that they mistakenly omitted the affiliations 1, 2 and 3 for Ioannis Andreadis, Athanasios D. Fragkou and Theodoros E. Karakasidis. Nonlinear dynamics in Divisia monetary aggregates: an application of recurrence quantification analysis. [Extracted from the article]

This paper provides a study of the relationship between money growth variability, velocity, and the stock market, using recent advances in financial econometrics. We estimate a trivariate VARMA, GARCH-in-Mean, BEKK model to quantify the effects of financial market and money supply instability. We investigate the robustness of the results to different definitions of money using monthly Divisia indices for the United States from the Center for Financial Stability (CFS). Empirical evidence supports significance of financial market and money supply volatility, and we conclude that Friedman's money supply volatility hypothesis is alive and well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate whether the United States economy responds asymmetrically to positive and negative money supply shocks of different magnitude, using a test recently introduced by Kilian and Vigfusson (Quant Econ 2:419-453, ) based on impulse response functions. We use quarterly data, over the period from 1967:1 to 2014:1, and the new CFS Divisia monetary aggregates, making a comparison among the narrower monetary aggregates, M1, M2M, MZM, M2, and ALL, and the broad monetary aggregates, M4+, M4-, and M3. We show that there is no statistically significant evidence of asymmetry in the response of the U.S. economy to positive and negative money supply shocks of different magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we provide an update regarding the effects of money growth variability on real economic activity in the United States using monthly data and the new CFS Divisia monetary aggregates, extending the work in Serletis and Shahmoradi (Macroecon Dyn 10:652-666 ) and Serletis and Rahman (Open Econ Rev 20:607-630 , Macroecon Dyn 17:1638-1658 ). We present evidence that increased uncertainty about the growth rate of the CFS Divisia M1, M2M, and M4+ monetary aggregates is associated with a lower average growth rate of real economic activity in the United States. We also argue that optimal monetary aggregation, as suggested over thirty years ago by Barnett (J Money Credit Bank 14:687-710 ), will further improve our understanding of how money affects the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]