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Between June and August 2020, an agent-based model was used to project rates of COVID-19 infection incidence and cases diagnosed as positive from 15 September to 31 October 2020 for 72 geographic settings. Five scenarios were modelled: a baseline scenario where no future changes were made to existing restrictions, and four scenarios representing small or moderate changes in restrictions at two intervals. Post hoc, upper and lower bounds for number of diagnosed Covid-19 cases were compared with actual data collected during the prediction window. A regression analysis with 17 covariates was performed to determine correlates of accurate projections. It was found that the actual data fell within the lower and upper bounds in 27 settings and out of bounds in 45 settings. The only statistically significant predictor of actual data within the predicted bounds was correct assumptions about future policy changes (OR 15.04; 95% CI 2.20–208.70; p = 0.016). Frequent changes in restrictions implemented by governments, which the modelling team was not always able to predict, in part explains why the majority of model projections were inaccurate compared with actual outcomes and supports revision of projections when policies are changed as well as the importance of modelling teams collaborating with policy experts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used an agent-based model Covasim to assess the risk of sustained community transmission of SARSCoV-2/COVID-19 in Queensland (Australia) in the presence of high-transmission variants of the virus. The model was calibrated using the demographics, policies, and interventions implemented in the state. Then, using the calibrated model, we simulated possible epidemic trajectories that could eventuate due to leakage of infected cases with high-transmission variants, during a period without recorded cases of locally acquired infections, known in Australian settings as "zero community transmission". We also examined how the threat of new variants reduces given a range of vaccination levels. Specifically, the model calibration covered the first-wave period from early March 2020 to May 2020. Predicted epidemic trajectories were simulated from early February 2021 to late March 2021. Our simulations showed that one infected agent with the ancestral (A.2.2) variant has a 14% chance of crossing a threshold of sustained community transmission (SCT) (i.e., > 5 infections per day, more than 3 days in a row), assuming no change in the prevailing preventative and counteracting policies. However, one agent carrying the alpha (B.1.1.7) variant has a 43% chance of crossing the same threshold; a threefold increase with respect to the ancestral strain; while, one agent carrying the delta (B.1.617.2) variant has a 60% chance of the same threshold, a fourfold increase with respect to the ancestral strain. The delta variant is 50% more likely to trigger SCT than the alpha variant. Doubling the average number of daily tests from ∼ 6,000 to 12,000 results in a decrease of this SCT probability from 43 to 33% for the alpha variant. However, if the delta variant is circulating we would need an average of 100,000 daily tests to achieve a similar decrease in SCT risk. Further, achieving a full-vaccination coverage of 70% of the adult population, with a vaccine with 70% effectiveness against infection, would decrease the probability of SCT from a single seed of alpha from 43 to 20%, on par with the ancestral strain in a naive population. In contrast, for the same vaccine coverage and same effectiveness, the probability of SCT from a single seed of delta would decrease from 62 to 48%, a risk slightly above the alpha variant in a naive population. Our results demonstrate that the introduction of even a small number of people infected with high-transmission variants dramatically increases the probability of sustained community transmission in Queensland. Until very high vaccine coverage is achieved, a swift implementation of policies and interventions, together with high quarantine adherence rates, will be required to minimise the probability of sustained community transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Initial COVID-19 containment in the United States focused on limiting mobility, including school and workplace closures. However, these interventions have had enormous societal and economic costs. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of an alternative control strategy, test-trace-quarantine: routine testing of primarily symptomatic individuals, tracing and testing their known contacts, and placing their contacts in quarantine. We perform this analysis using Covasim, an open-source agent-based model, which has been calibrated to detailed demographic, mobility, and epidemiological data for the Seattle region from January through June 2020. With current levels of mask use and schools remaining closed, we find that high but achievable levels of testing and tracing are sufficient to maintain epidemic control even under a return to full workplace and community mobility and with low vaccine coverage. The easing of mobility restrictions in June 2020 and subsequent scale-up of testing and tracing programs through September provided real-world validation of our predictions. Although we show that test-trace-quarantine can control the epidemic in both theory and practice, its success is contingent on high testing and tracing rates, high quarantine compliance, relatively short testing and tracing delays, and moderate to high mask use. Thus, in order for test-trace-quarantine to control transmission with a return to high mobility, strong performance in all aspects of the program is required. Initial COVID-19 containment in the United States focused on limiting mobility, including school and workplace closures, with enormous societal and economic costs. Here, the authors demonstrate the feasibility of a test-trace-quarantine strategy using an agent-based model and detailed data on the Seattle region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is already having harmful effects on habitats worldwide and it is therefore important to gain an understanding of how rising temperatures may affect extant animals. Here, we investigate the tolerance to high temperatures of Ramazzottius varieornatus, a tardigrade frequently found in transient freshwater habitats. Using logistic modelling on activity we evaluate the effect of 24 hour temperature exposures on active tardigrades, with or without a short acclimation period, compared to exposures of desiccated tardigrades. We estimate that the 50% mortality temperature for non-acclimated active tardigrades is 37.1 °C, with a small but significant increase to 37.6 °C following acclimation. Desiccated specimens tolerate much higher temperatures, with an estimated 50% mortality temperature of 82.7 °C following 1 hour exposures, but with a significant decrease to 63.1 °C following 24 hour exposures. Our results show that metabolically active tardigrades are vulnerable to high temperatures, yet acclimatization could provide a tolerance increase. Desiccated specimens show a much higher resilience—exposure-time is, however, a limiting factor giving tardigrades a restricted window of high temperature tolerance. Tardigrades are renowned for their ability to tolerate extreme conditions, but their endurance towards high temperatures clearly has an upper limit—high temperatures thus seem to be their Achilles heel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an urgent need for more integrated weed management in commercial cereal production. However, there is gap in the general understanding of crop-weed interactions and the traits contributing to weed suppression by winter cereals. In this research, we measured the above-ground competitive traits crop height, leaf area index and early ground cover and below-ground allelopathic traits by quantification of benzoxazinoid (BX) content in the root zone by HPLC-MS/MS. A partial least squares regression was applied to identify the relative contribution of each trait to explaining the observed variance in weed biomass. The use of three winter cereals, wheat, triticale, and rye enabled us to cover a broad range of weed suppression strategies. For the first time, we were able to demonstrate a positive correlation between BX in plant material and phenoxazinoids in the soil. The highest concentration of BX in the rhizosphere was found at 3-10 cm. Furthermore, differences in crop weed interactions between wheat, rye, and dicotyledonous and monocotyledonous weeds were identified. Interestingly, there was no significant difference between the contribution of any single competitive or allelopathic trait to explain weed biomass. This is valuable information for the establishment of breeding programs for enhanced weed suppression by the cereal crops examined and suggests that an improvement of any of the competitive or allelopathic traits will lead to increased weed suppression. Furthermore, the transfer of traits from rye to wheat via triticale is promising as it may broaden the weed suppressive abilities of wheat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has recently been argued that the enigmatic tardigrades (water bears) will endure until the sun dies, surviving any astrophysical calamities in Earth’s oceans. Yet, our knowledge of stress tolerance among marine tardigrade species is very limited and most investigations revolve around species living in moist habitats on land. Here, we investigate desiccation tolerance in the cosmopolitan marine tidal tardigrade, Echiniscoides sigismundi, providing the first thorough analysis on recovery upon desiccation from seawater. We test the influence on survival of desiccation surface, time spent desiccated (up to 1 year) and initial water volume. We propose analysis methods for survival estimates, which can be used as a future platform for evaluating and analysing recovery rates in organisms subjected to extreme stress. Our data reveal that marine tidal tardigrades tolerate extremely rapid and extended periods of desiccation from seawater supporting the argument that these animals are among the toughest organisms on Earth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]