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Prefabricated construction (PC) technology diffusion, as a key to promoting PC, has attracted increasing attention from academia and industry in recent years. The diffusion of PC technology mainly stems from the coupling effect of multiple influencing factors, especially the multi-agent synergy. This study is to explore the multi-dimensional influencing factors and their coupling paths for the diffusion of PC technology, from a multi-agent synergy perspective. First, six critical factors identified through literature review are divided into three dimensions. Further, fourteen theoretical hypotheses are proposed for the interactions of these factors and their impacts on the diffusion of PC technology, highlighting the role of multi-agent synergy. Then, an empirical research method based on partial least square-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and questionnaire survey data were used to reveal the relationship between the influencing factors and the coupling path of PC technology diffusion. The findings suggest that organization strength (with the highest influence) and technology cooperation have positive effects, while technology investment has a negative effect, on PC technology diffusion. Both market competition and industry development play indirect roles on PC technology diffusion via technology investment, without direct effects. Government intervention positively moderates the path from technology investment and organizational strength to PC technology diffusion, respectively, with the strongest moderating effect between government intervention and organization strength. This study contributes to scientifically planning the diffusion of PC technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the diffusion of battery electric vehicle (BEV) technology in Japan. The diffusion process in this study refers to both the innovation and adoption of BEV technology. While previous studies on BEV technological diffusion focus on policy selection, especially domestic policy, little is known about the connectedness between international and domestic factors in the BEV technological diffusion process. This paper aims to enrich the discussion of technology diffusion by expanding the argument that technology diffusion is not only a domestic problem but also an international relations problem using a case study of BEV technology diffusion in Japan. The findings indicate that two international factors push Japan to diffuse BEV technology: Japanese commitment to the global environmental regime and global competition in BEV manufacturing. However, the domestic institution factor hinders the BEV technology diffusion. The production structures of automobile industries and political economy relations between the automobile industry and the government further complicate the diffusion process of BEV technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A model is proposed where economic growth is driven by innovation alongside the diffusion and adoption of technology from the frontier. Innovation investments are related to households savings, which generates multiple equilibria with low and high levels of innovation and productivity. Low-level equilibria are unstable. Starting from a position with low levels of investment and innovation, increasing investments are associated with high but decreasing dependence on international technology diffusion. A major objective of policy-making is to increase investment sufficiently in the lower end to reach the high-level steady state. An economic rationale is provided for the existence of productivity improving equilibria, where distance to the frontier is reduced based on a tax and subsidy mechanism designed to boost innovation and speed up catching-up. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Productivity growth is important for long-term economic growth and development, and technology adoption is one of its key drivers. This study empirically assesses whether political regimes are a significant determinant of technology diffusion. Specifically, we examine the effects of political regimes on diffusion of technology using data based on a sample of 104 technologies from 137 countries for the period 1901 to 2000. We consider detailed categories of technologies and investigate the differences in the impacts of political regimes on each technology. Our estimation results show that democracy does not have a significant impact on the overall diffusion of technology but it is positively associated with the diffusion of health- and agriculture-related technologies. Furthermore, the diffusion of infrastructure, general, and other sector-specific technologies is not influenced by political regimes. Considering different types of democracies and dictatorships, we find that parliamentary democracy has a positive impact on health- and agriculture-related technology diffusion. On the contrary, all types of dictatorships, namely civilian, military, and royal, have negative impacts on diffusion of technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an environment of accelerating technological change and increasing digitalization, firms need to adopt new technologies faster than ever before to stay competitive. This paper examines whether updates of education curricula help to bring new technologies faster into firms' workplaces. We study technology changes and curriculum updates from an early wave of digitalization (i.e., computer-numerically controlled machinery, computer-aided design, and desktop publishing software). We take a text-as-data approach and tap into two novel data sources to measure change in educational content and the use of technology at the workplace: first, vocational education curricula and, second, firms' job advertisements. To examine the causal effects of adding new technology skills to curricula on the diffusion of these technologies in firms' workplaces (measured by job advertisements), we use an event study design. Our results show that curriculum updates substantially shorten the time it takes for new technologies to arrive in firms' workplaces, especially for mainstream firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Potato is a primary food and cash crop in Bhutan. The adoption of new varieties has faced some challenges. To address this situation, farmers' needs and priorities were investigated through varietal demonstration and a field survey in seven of the main potato-growing districts of Bhutan. The role of gender in farm decisions and operations in relation to potato farming was also assessed. Nine quality determinants significantly (χ2 = 376.54, P < 0.001) influenced farmers' selection of potato varieties. These determinants, in order of their relative preference, were as follows: high productivity (15.5% by weight of mean rank), high market value (13.4%), red-skinned (12.7%), marketability (11.6%), large tubers (11.3%), late-blight resistant (11.3%), micronutrient content (8.8%), short-duration (8.3%) and good taste (7.2%). Potato productivity (yield) and preference vote data were significantly correlated (R = 0.395, P < 0.01) for female farmers but not for male farmers. Similarly, the involvement of female farmers in farm decision-making processes was significantly (P < 0.001) higher than when compared with their male counterparts. However, both genders were equally involved in physical farm operations. Bhutanese potato cropping is highly driven by commercially driven (market) preferences such as yield, colour and size as opposed to subsistence preferences such as micronutrient content. Understanding farmers' priorities during the development of new potato variety is critical for varietal selection for adoption. Furthermore, understanding the role of women in farm decision-making processes is crucial for adoption of new varietal technology in potato production. These findings may serve as an evidence-based insight to guide research and policy interventions in Bhutan and in similar agroecologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides minimum economic growth (or GDP growth) critical masses or thresholds that should be exceeded in order for demand-side mobile money factors to favorably drive mobile money innovations for financial inclusion in developing countries. The considered mobile money innovations are mobile money accounts, the mobile phone used to send money, and the mobile phone used to receive money. The empirical evidence is based on tobit regressions. For positive net relationships that are established, an extended analysis is engaged to provide minimum GDP growth levels required to sustain the positive net nexuses. From this extended analysis, in order for economic growth to modulate demand-side mobile money drivers to favorably influence mobile money innovations, minimum GDP growth rates are (i) 3.875% for the nexus between bank accounts and the mobile phone used to send money; (ii) 3.769% for the relationship between automated teller machine (ATM) penetration and the mobile used to send money; and (iii) 3.666% for the nexus between ATM penetration and the mobile phone used to receive money. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When replacing equipment at its end of life, industries often have the option to select higher efficiency technologies. The choice to invest in an improved piece of equipment rather than a simple in-kind replacement is driven by many factors, including costs, performance, and familiarity with new technology options. Engineering models that account for equipment stock turnover, such as ENERGY 2020, typically assume that this decision is primarily driven by the difference in marginal costs: higher up front capital costs must be, at minimum, balanced by lower lifetime energy costs for an upgrade to be pursued. Stock turnover analysis requires detailed data inputs regarding the costs and performance of new equipment. For simplicity, a common approach is to develop assumed correlations that reflect the trade-off between marginal capital cost and efficiency and compare these to energy prices to select an efficiency level for new equipment. In this study, we present a novel method to develop such trade-off curves based on a technology-explicit approach rather than a qualitative correlation assumption. We generate trade-off curves for two common types of industrial devices: electric machine drive and natural gas steam generation for the case study of the Canadian pulp and paper sector. The curves demonstrate that the efficiency of new devices can be expected to vary significantly based on energy prices. At current energy prices, we find that newly purchased machine drive and steam generation devices would have an optimal efficiency level of 91% and 75%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a conceptualisation of the process of technology adoption that takes into account the uneven relative costs of technology implementation, especially country differences in wage levels. The novelties and contributions of our approach are the following. First, we introduce a dynamic macroeconomic model of technology diffusion, which is the first to directly account for the difference in factor cost proportions in an endogenous cross-country setting. Second, we utilise the Cross-country Historical Adoption of Technology (CHAT) and Penn World Table databases to calibrate the model using non-linear approximation across countries and technologies, which explains about 50% of the variability in technology density. Third, the results of the calibrated model offer a new insight into the dynamics and patterns of technology diffusion of differently developed countries, offering both an approximation of the average technology adoption across differently developed countries over time and an approximation of the relative technology density adoption curves, which are country specific generalisations of the logistic curves and depend highly on the general level of development and wage levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper tests for the presence of behavioral biases in household decisions to adopt solar photovoltaic installations using exogenous variation in weather. I find that residential technology uptake responds to exceptional weather, defined as deviations from the long-term mean, in line with the average time gap between decision-making and completion of the installation. In particular, a one standard deviation increase in sunshine hours during the purchase period leads to an approximate increase of 4.7% in weekly solar PV installations. This effect persists in aggregate data. I consider a range of potential mechanisms and find suggestive evidence for projection bias and salience as key drivers of my results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study focuses on linkages between bank accounts and supply-side mobile money drivers for mobile money innovations. It seeks to understand how bank accounts can be complemented with mobile subscription and mobile connectivity dynamics (i.e., mobile connectivity coverage and mobile connectivity performance) for mobile money innovations. The empirical evidence is based on quadratic Tobit regressions. First, there are positive net relationships from the roles of mobile subscriptions and mobile connectivity coverage in modulating bank accounts for mobile money innovations. Second, mobile connectivity performance does not significantly modulate bank accounts for mobile money innovations. Third, given the negative marginal relationships associated with the positive net relationships, thresholds for complementary policies in mobile money supply factors that are worthwhile for bank accounts to stimulate mobile money innovations are provided. The thresholds are: (1) mobile subscription rates of 87.50%, 80.50%, and 98.50% of the adult population for respectively, mobile money accounts, the mobile used to send money, and the mobile used to receive money, and (2) mobile connectivity coverages of 64.00%, 69.33%, and 78.00% for respectively, mobile money accounts, the mobile used to send money, and the mobile used to receive money. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Like genetic distance, surname distance provides a measure of potential differences in population characteristics (e.g., biological, cultural, and institutional). We construct a unique measure of surname distance for the ethnic Han population based on the distribution of Chinese surnames for the period 960–1368AD to examine its impact on the diffusion of technology—specifically maize adoption—in late imperial China. Our analysis finds that a one standard deviation increase in the surname distance between a pair of prefectures lowers the probability of technology diffusion by approximately 7.3 percent during the 50-year period 1650–1700 and 7.0 percent during the 100-year period 1650–1750. However, the effect becomes less over longer periods, presumably because the once-novel technology diffused thoroughly over time. As a check of robustness, we further confirm that surname distance also significantly affected the diffusion of other types of technology such as those associated with the Industrial Revolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Government incentive policies play an important role in the promotion of distributed photovoltaic power. However, which policy is more effective for the diffusion of distributed photovoltaic power? This is a question that needs to be answered. Based on this, we combined the two-factor learning curve and system dynamics model to study the dynamic diffusion process of China's distributed photovoltaic power (DSP). The results show that (1) the coefficients of learning by doing and learning by researching for DSP are 0.0435 and 0.2971 respectively. This indicates that technological innovation caused by R&D expenditures in the DSP is the driving force for cost reduction. (2) Both demand-pull and technology-push policies contribute to the diffusion of DSP; (3) the effect of FIT policy on the diffusion of distributed photovoltaic technology is more significant than that of R&D policy; and the reduction of production cost of photovoltaic power industry by R&D policy is more significant than FIT policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the effects of unanticipated technological shocks across the most innovative economies in the world. We examine who leads and follows in the global technological race and how technological shocks in one country shape innovation activity in another. We put forward a useful approach in modeling the dynamic interdependencies of knowledge spillovers across countries, which exploits the modeling capabilities of the so-called network Global Vector Auto-Regressive (GVAR) framework. Our empirical evidence, on a selected panel of most innovative world economies over the period 1986–2013, show that the USA and China are the dominant countries in the system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The market for voice assistants (VAs) and other allied voice-based smart-home products is gradually emerging. The initial growth has been slower than expected; therefore, an in-depth simultaneous intention and diffusion analysis is needed for identifying the relevant factors along with finding out the target consumers. This work uses technology acceptance model as the core for analyzing the adoption intention of the VA-based system and extends it with three additional factors: compatibility, perceived complementarity and privacy concerns. The diffusion analysis for the same is done using the multivariate probit model. Certain characteristics of the VA-based systems like the network effects between the products/services and the importance of protecting personal information are considered in this work, apart from various demographic variables like age, gender, income and education levels. Two separate surveys were conducted for the purpose of data collection from 315 and 1945 participants residing in Thailand for analyzing the adoption and diffusion scenario, respectively. The results show that usefulness, ease of use, compatibility and perceived complementarity have significant positive effects on the purchase intention. In terms of diffusion of the VA market, unlike other Information Communication Technology-based products/services, the results show that the senior consumers are more likely to purchase the VAs and other allied smart-home devices within a given time frame when compared to the younger consumers. Therefore, new strategies should be developed that promote the usage of VAs by the young population for increasing the market demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study utilizes recall data from smallholder farmers in selected provinces in Zambia to examine the role of social and institutional networks, as well as other farm and household factors in the adoption and diffusion of conservation agriculture (CA) technology. We employed a dynamic discrete-time hazard model to capture the time path to adoption. The empirical results show that conditional on several potentially confounding factors, conservation agriculture technology adoption and diffusion are positively and significantly influenced by farmers' access to information from social networks and institutional networks like extension services. Adoption decisions are also found to be significantly influenced by age, education, market distance, as well as location fixed effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International trade is one of the main channels of technological diffusion as it allows countries to have access to technology developed by others in the process of buying and selling intermediate inputs and capital goods. In the 1990s, China initiated a process of major incentives for the development of new technologies and this was intensified in the 2000s. The country is now a potential technology donor, which contributes to the global diffusion of technology. The main objective of this paper is to analyze the effects of technological spillovers from China through international trade. The analysis considered 22 OECD member countries, including China, and 17 manufacturing industries for the 2008–2014 period. The results indicate that China is contributing to the process of technological diffusion with both negative and positive spillovers. Besides identifying the spillovers from China broken down according to industries, our results also indicate that domestic and foreign spillovers are important channels of technological diffusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study proposes a methodological approach to investigate cross-country creativity/knowledge flows by analyzing patent citation networks, taking the aircraft, aviation and cosmonautics (AAC) industry as a case study. It aims at shedding some light on the following research questions: (a) how cross-country creative/learning flows can be investigated; (b) have countries of current patent owners benefited from patent acquisitions. In fact, despite the well-established economic interest for (analyzing and forecasting) innovation trajectories, this research area is still unexplored, thus, motivating the need for such study. Over 43,000,000 patents have been analyzed whereby: (a) owners have performed cross-country patent acquisitions; (b) acquired patents (granted within 2005–2009) are cited by subsequent patents (2010–2015). Methodology and results are scalable to other industries and can be exploited by managers and policy makers to: (a) help firms forecasting innovation trajectories; (b) support governments in designing/implementing measures nurturing patented innovations in industries deemed relevant to national interest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impacts of the Target-Setting Emissions Trading (TSET) Program launched by Saitama Prefecture in Japan in 2011 on the adoption of low-carbon technology. Using facility-level data on the manufacturing sector, the causal relationship between implementation of the program and investment in high-efficiency equipment is estimated. The results show that the TSET Program promoted the adoption of high-efficiency machines and devices for the first three years of the second compliance period, whereas the program did not spur investments in high-efficiency equipment during the first compliance period. These results suggest that the manufacturing facilities may have adopted relatively cheaper emissions reduction plans in the first compliance period such as improvements to equipment they already owned, whereas in the second compliance period, when the emissions targets became stricter, they allocated money and resources to introduce high-efficiency equipment. These findings indicate that the TSET Program succeeded in encouraging emissions reduction efforts by facilities in the manufacturing sector covered by the scheme, even though the program lacks penalties for noncompliance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding and governing technology transitions is essential to cope with major challenges of the 21st century such as climate change or digitization. In this paper, a learning-based approach is developed to explain the dynamics of different transition pathways. Technological know-how is necessary to make effective use of technical innovations embodied in capital. Firms and employees accumulate technology specific knowledge when working with specific machinery. Radical innovation differs by technology type and pre-existing knowledge may be imperfectly transferable across types. This paper addresses the implications of cross-technology transferability of skills for firm-level technology adoption and its consequences for the direction of macro-level technological change. A microeconomically founded model of technological learning is introduced. The model is based on empirical and theoretical insights from the innovation literature. In a simulation study using the macro-economic ABM Eurace@unibi-eco and applied to the context of green 2 technology diffusion, it is shown that a high transferability of knowledge has ambiguous effects. It accelerates the diffusion process initially but comes at the cost of long-term technological stability and specialization. For firms, it is easy to adopt new technology, but also easy to switch back to the incumbent type. Technological instability can be macroeconomically costly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The level of viral diffusion expected after a technology product or service is launched is important for determining the marketing budget, forecasting revenue, and understanding the resources necessary to manufacture and/or support the technology. Based on a review of academic and industry literature, this study proposes the "Comprehensive Framework of Viral Technology Diffusion—Stages and Factors." The framework specifically draws on stage models developed by Wiedemann et al. (Wiedemann DG, Palka W, Pousttchi K (2008) Understanding the determinants of mobile viral effects-towards a grounded theory of mobile viral marketing. Paper presented at the 2008 7th international conference on mobile business) and Phelps et al. (Phelps et al., J Advert Res 44:333–348, 2004), other academic and industry viral marketing literature, and information systems literature including theories widely used in IS research, such as reasoned actioned (Fishbein and Ajzen Fishbein and Ajzen, Intention and behavior: an introduction to theory and research, Addison-Wesley, MA, 1975), Technology Acceptance Model (Davis 1989; Davis et al. 1989) and planned behavior (Ajzen Ajzen, I. (1985). From intentions to actions: a theory of planned behavior. In: Action control, Springer. New York, Ajzen, Organ Behav Hum Decis Process 50:179–211, 1991). It details five major stages of viral diffusion campaigns, their relationships to each other, and relevant findings from the literature. The five stages recognized are: content development; virality prediction; seed engagement; content propagation; and virality response. Each stage has been identified in prior studies; however, no comprehensive framework of these constructs, nor their relationships to one another, has so far been found. Some important factors included are, for example, at the propagation stage, consideration of the networks through which viral propagation occur and potential transmission costs faced by content forwarders. Our framework contributes to the literature by providing an outline and related set of factors that may be useful for understanding and positioning future research on viral marketing and may also help practitioners who seek to launch products virally. We also offer directions for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the empirical literature on the determinants of farmer adoption of sustainable intensification technologies in maize agri-food systems of the Global South. The attributes of the technology and the dissemination institutions interact with farm/farmer-specific variables, leading to heterogeneous impacts, making the prediction of technology adoption challenging. However, most empirical studies oversimplify the adoption process and examine only the farm/farmer-specific variables as the determinants of adoption, thereby limiting the scope of learning on how the attributes of the technology and the dissemination system could have been altered to realize a more efficient and more inclusive technological change. We argue for a realignment of empirical adoption analysis for better implications through a conscious rejection of the assumption that the onus of technology performance rests solely with the farmer. Here we review the studies published between 2007 and 2018 on the adoption of sustainable intensification technologies in maize systems of the Global South to examine how the adoption models are currently dependent on the farm/farmer attributes vis-à-vis the attributes of technologies and disseminating institutions. The main findings from a synthesis of 137 adoption studies are threefold. (1) Limited information access and technologies not suitable for the small landholdings were the major constraints of farmer adoption of technologies. (2) The criticisms on the conventional adoption analysis concerning oversimplification and decontextualization of the decision-making process are reaffirmed. (3) The empirical adoption research needs to incorporate the attributes of technologies and the socio-institutional context to develop better research strategies toward inclusive agrarian development. We examine how the framework of the socioeconomic analysis can be reconstructed to facilitate the research and development (R&D) institutions to overcome the major hurdles of rapid and inclusive dissemination. Evaluation of the degree to which the attributes of technology favor its adoption requires increased research attention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the COVID-19 crisis has hit the Chinese economy hard, China's Internet companies have benefited from the quarantine. However, the long-term consequences of the 2020 crisis for the development of the innovative potential of Chinese Internet corporations, primarily the largest platforms such as Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, and JD.com as integrators of the Chinese Internet economy, are still unclear. This article provides a general overview of changes in the consumption of services of large platforms, including moderate growth in demand, strengthening of the segment of high-tech services (cloud solutions for business, digital healthcare, etc.), digitalization of small and medium enterprises, and expansion of the user audience. The innovative and technological initiatives of the platforms are analyzed. Within the framework of the announced state plans, large platforms, in partnership with regional authorities, business, and universities, intend to develop an advanced digital infrastructure (5G, data centers, etc.) and innovation infrastructure (digital clusters, technology parks, and research centers). Despite the lack of new breakthrough initiatives, the innovation capacity of the platforms is expected to strengthen in the long term. Presumably, the key role will be played by qualitative changes in the markets owing to the diffusion of digital technologies and competences, which will lead to an increase in demand for Internet innovations. The mechanisms of transforming market changes into a resource for innovative development of the platforms are associated with the expansion of market data, the emergence of a complex system of services, and unique innovative ecosystems of the platforms, making it possible to organize and coordinate the innovative activities of various entities, as well as to coopt promising start-ups able to create breakthrough innovations during the crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world is transforming through digitalisation and business schools are predisposed to this transition. Some universities have slickly sailed through the digitalisation challenge, while others have been left behind. The purpose of this research paper is to identify and examine the variables that impact the successful adoption of digitalisation by business schools. Gaining an understanding of these variables will help business schools adopt digitalisation for long-term improvement. Analysing gaps in the literature (mostly using sources from 2013 to 2019) helped identify eight independent variables that can influence the adoption of digitalisation in business schools. A five-point Likert scale questionnaire containing 56 non-demographic questions was sent to the target population. The survey saw responses from 421 participants worldwide, including academics from flagship business schools and education technology experts. A conceptual model was developed using a structural equation model in ADANCO 2.0.1, which was used to postulate the hypotheses. Empirically, students' competence has the strongest influence on the adoption of digitalisation by business schools, followed closely by teachers' competence and technology diffusion, in that order. However, industry expectations do not significantly influence this adoption. This reflects a lapse from business schools in coping with the expectations of the corporate world, thus indicating that future researchers need to study this misalignment. The results from this study display a left shift in the bell-shaped curve of Rogers' (2003) theory of diffusion of innovations, indicating an increase in the category of early adopters of technology from 50 to 90%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For B2C (Business to Customer) commerce platforms, quickly attracting enough consumers is an extremely important issue. However, existing studies mainly analyze whether consumers make online purchase and its influencing factors, but pay less attention to the changes in consumer size. Therefore, this paper aims to study the changing law of consumer quantity from the macro level, which may help E-commerce platforms reasonably predict it. Firstly, we point out the unique feature of the B2C commerce platforms compared with traditional products or technologies, namely indirect network externality. And we combine this feature and the factors that influence consumers and enterprises' adoption of B2C commerce to build an extended Bass Model. Finally, we verify the validity of our model with the data of Chinese online shoppers. In addition, we put forward some suggestions on the future research of this extended Bass Model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent developments in display technology and computation have strongly increased the operability of virtual reality applications, and both academic and commercial interest in the subject is on the increase. This paper studies publication patterns of VR in medicine and various medical subfields by analysing 9830 documents from 1991 to 2018 to put the rising publication numbers into context. The focus rests on identifying those areas that show exceptional growth. While scholars in surgery were the first to publish extensively on VR, psychology and psychiatry are now the only fields that show a relative increase in publication growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the impact of human capital on the growth of total factor productivity in European countries. Using the modified Nelson–Phelps framework, we estimate regressions based on panel data for the period 1950–2014, measured as 5-year averages. The GMM estimates show the positive and statistically significant effects of human capital on technological progress and diffusion. However, the results do not favour the convergence of all countries in the sample to the technological frontier. In addition to countries that are not yet members of the European Union (EU), our estimates suggest that peripheral EU countries have a weak convergence rate due to insufficient investment in human capital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the technology diffusion specifically in computer industry for a panel of 18 countries between the period 1999 and 2011. Strong evidence is found for the existence of diffusion of computer technology through bilateral capital good flows. This study shows that knowledge dissemination arises as an important determinant of output in computer sector. Still, domestic research and development efforts of countries are found to be the leading contributing factors in all model specifications. Besides, among two subgroups, in diffusion of computer technology, it is observed that USA contributes more to the knowledge dissemination in the related industry relative to three Asian countries i.e., Chinese Taipei, Korea and Singapore. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs the patent data of four major genetically modified (GM) crops, soybeans, cotton, maize and rapeseed, to illustratee how the innovation of GM crop technology diffused and distributed globally over time. Data collected from the Derwent Innovation Index, were employed to construct country patent citation networks, from 1984 to 2015, and the results revealed that developed countries were early adopters, and the primary actors in the innovation of GM crop technology. Only seven developing countries appeared in the country citation network. Most developed countries were reluctant to apply GM crop technology for commercial cultivation. Private businesses stood out in the patent citation network. The early adoption and better performance of developed countries can be explained by the activities of large established private companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whole-economy scenarios for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C suggest that direct carbon emissions in the buildings sector should decrease to almost zero by 2050, but leave unanswered the question how this could be achieved by real-world policies. We simulate which policy measures could induce an almost complete decarbonisation of residential heating, the by far largest source of direct emissions in residential buildings. Under which assumptions is it possible, and how long would it take? We use the non-equilibrium bottom-up model FTT:Heat to simulate policies for a transition towards low-carbon heating in a context of inertia and bounded rationality, focusing on the uptake of heating systems. Our results indicate that the near-zero decarbonisation is achievable by 2050, but requires substantial policy efforts. We find that policy mixes are more effective for incentivising the uptake of fuel-efficient low-carbon technologies, compared to a residential carbon tax as the only policy. In combination with subsidies and procurement policies for renewables, near-complete decarbonisation could be achieved with a tax of 50-200 €/tCO2. Without being complimented by additional policies, carbon taxes show a decreasing marginal impact on total emission reductions, thus remaining insufficient for deep decarbonisation. In all scenarios, the decarbonisation of heating would increase projected heating costs faced by households initially, but could lead to cost reductions in most world regions in the medium term. We show that the potential impacts of policies highly depend on behavioural decision-making by households, especially in a context of deep decarbonisation and rapid transformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I examine the problem of apportioning liability among competing firms in an industry where the environmental damage is a joint product of the actions taken by all firms. In particular, I analyze the effect of alternative apportionment rules on adoption and strategic diffusion of pollution abatement technology. In a duopoly where industry wide technological diffusion is welfare enhancing, I characterize the second-best optimal apportionment rules. Inducing technology transfer requires placing a larger burden of the liability on the ex ante cleaner firm i.e., the one with a more efficient abatement technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of human capital on the process of innovation and technology catch-up in European Union countries. Based on the framework proposed by Benhabib and Spiegel (in: Aghion and Durlauf (eds) Handbook of economic growth, 1A, North-Holland, Amsterdam, 2005), a panel data model is estimated from 1950 to 2011 using the improved total factor productivity and human capital variables included in PWT 8.0. Following Vandenbussche et al. (J Econ Growth 11(2):97-127, 2006) we also analyse the differential impact of skilled and unskilled human capital on growth. The empirical analysis applies instrumental variables panel data methods which resolve the endogeneity bias. Our results show robust evidence of the significant direct and indirect effects of human capital on the process of total factor productivity (TFP henceforth) growth in euro area countries. When we analyse the impact of different kinds of human capital on different ways of increasing TFP we conclude that, regardless of academic level, the quantity of unskilled human capital boosts imitation in EU countries while, by contrast, highly qualified human capital is essential for growth through innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Real-life examples have demonstrated that technological advantages might not be sufficient to establish a leading market position. Insights into the emergence of a so-called dominant design are therefore not only of academic interest but are also of practical relevance. In the past, the paths leading toward a dominant design have typically been examined ex-post by means of case studies, which obviously limits the ability to systematically analyze factors that might play a role in these formation processes. In contrast, agent-based modeling and simulation, a relatively new method, is particularly well suited for the systematic investigation of these complex processes as it allows for variation of the parameters describing the market under consideration followed by observation of the corresponding system behavior. In this paper, we will demonstrate the ability of an agent-based approach to simulate the emergence of dominant designs in a hypothetical application taken from the world of vampires, in which humans must choose weapons to defend themselves against assaults from their supernatural adversaries. This setting makes it possible to test the effectivity of various measures, such as advertising or providing opportunities to practice, aimed at supporting market diffusion of the respective weapons. It turns out that technologically superior alternatives often, but not always, succeed in becoming the dominant design and that applying certain measures (and countermeasures) can indeed significantly influence this outcome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The twentieth century was a period of exceptional growth, driven mainly by the increase in total factor productivity (TFP). Using a database of 17 OECD countries over the 1890-2013 period, this paper integrates production factor quality into the measure of TFP, namely by factoring the level of education of the working-age population into the measure of labor and the age of equipment in the measure of capital stock. We then estimate how the diffusion of technology impacts the growth of this newly measured TFP through two emblematic general purpose technologies, electricity and information and communication technologies (ICT). Using growth decomposition methodology from instrumental variable estimates, this paper finds that education levels contribute most significantly to growth, while the age of capital makes a limited, although significant, contribution. Quality-adjusted production factors explain less than half of labor productivity growth in the largest countries except for Japan, where capital deepening posted a very large contribution. As a consequence, the 'one big wave' of productivity growth (Gordon in Am Econ Rev 89(2):123-128, 1999), as well as the ICT productivity wave for the countries which experienced it, remains only partially explained by quality-adjusted factors, although education and technology diffusion contribute to explain the earlier wave in the USA in the 1930s-1940s. Finally, technology diffusion, as captured through our two general purpose technologies, leaves unexplained between 0.6 and 1 percentage point of yearly growth, as well as a large proportion of the two twentieth-century technology waves. These results both support a significant lag in the diffusion of general purpose technologies and raise further questions on a wider view on growth factors, including changes in the production process, management techniques and financing practices. Measurement problems may also contribute to the unexplained share of growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concerns regarding the high level of research and development (R&D) expenditure on military technology have prompted many nations to pursue a dual-use regime in military R&D. However, the value of dual-use military technology has not yet been quantitatively investigated. We explore whether military technology with a higher level of duality has been more valuable than that with a lower level of duality. We assume that the patent of valuable military technology was renewed until its termination. We retrieve military patents from the United States Patent and Trademark Office during 1976-2014 based on their International Patent Classification (IPC) as F41 or F42. Then, we propose three indicators to assess the duality level of them. The first indicator is based on the determination of whether the patented technology is utilizable in both the military and the civilian sectors using its IPC. For the second indicator, we estimate the potential of convergence of a patented technology with various technological fields using the degree of centrality of the IPC's co-occurrence network. The third indicator is based on ratio of forward citation by the civilian sector over the total number of forward citations as a measurement of technology diffusion toward the civilian sector. Using logistic regression, we found that the first two indicators are positively associated with patent renewal decision, while the last indicator is nonsignificant. The effects of the two significant indicators suggests that military technologies are more valuable when the technology itself can be used in various sectors, including the civilian sector, and can be converged with technologies in different fields. However, the nonsignificant influence of the third variable suggests that the relation between patent value and diffusion effects toward following inventions is not confined to the civilian sector. Our findings provide evidence of the impact of dual-use policies in military R&D. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop an overarching model to explain the adoption of business-to-business e-commerce using five business factors: external environment, organizational context, decision-maker's characteristics, technology context, and organizational learning. Data collected from IS executives was analyzed using logistic regression. Our model has a good fit with over 77 % variance explained. Findings indicate that the existence of informal interest groups, and the tolerant attitude of decision makers towards negative information about business-to-business e-commerce have significant influence on the adoption decision. In addition, our results indicate that price intensity and perceived barriers negatively affect the adoption decision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Firms participating in a patent transaction network demonstrate interdependence and mutually influence one another. The characteristics of such a network structure demonstrate a complex overall configuration. This study proposes a dynamic perspective for investigating the structure of a patent transaction network. By using network analysis, this study defines the structural configuration of a patent transaction network by measuring centralization, centrality, and linkage distribution. Data from patent transactions of the flat panel display sector from 1976 to 2012 have been examined evaluate their networking. The results show that the structural configuration of a patent transaction network shows significant stratification patterns in terms of a given firm's technology exportation and brokerage capabilities, but also operates as a complex system. This analysis provides insights into patent transaction networks, and also addresses policy implications for firms and authorities who are interested in acquiring market competition or governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign firms in Kenya have played a major role in enhancing economic growth in the agriculture sector, especially in floriculture and horticulture. Over a long period of time, foreign direct investment (FDI) has been found to create many externalities in the Kenyan economy in the form of benefits available through transfers of general knowledge, specific technologies in production and distribution, industrial upgrading, work experience for the labor force and the establishment of finance-related and trading networks, and the upgrading of telecommunications services. The purpose of this study was to address the role of foreign direct investment on technology transfer and economic growth in Kenya, with a focus on the energy sector in Nairobi focusing on the period between 2001 and 2014. This study adopted a descriptive and inferential survey design. The target population for this study was 60 senior managers composing of directors and managers from Kenya Power and Kengen. Questionnaires were used to collect primary data. The study established that there is a relationship between foreign direct investment variables of infrastructure, technology diffusion, trade facilitation, knowledge management, and technology transfer and economic growth. The study found that investment in the energy sector has led to new technology in the country as it has transferred technology to local investors through sharing of knowledge in new innovation in production, research, and development and also has led to increased competition in trading which has resulted in efficiency and effectiveness of the industry. A major implication of this study is that policy makers must devise policies that would create an enabling environment for attracting FDIs in order to facilitate technology transfer and hence economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study determined the usefulness of digital comic creation with 77 graduate students in a teacher technology course. Students completed an assigned reading and created digital comics that addressed technology integration concerns in the schools and society. Using practical action research, 77 student-created comics were analyzed. The findings suggested that digital comic creation had unique characteristics for critical reflection of text, since comic genres encourage multiple meanings, juxtaposing ideas, humor, and counterintuitive punch lines. Due to their inherent nature, comics supplied a safe medium for writing stories regarding uncomfortable concepts, potentially providing a useful way to support teacher professional growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Japanese government approved the use of oral contraception (OC) in 1999, but OC users remain a small minority in Japan. Using the results of an online survey conducted in 2010, I examine the factors determining Japanese women's choice of contraceptive method by estimating multinomial choice models. The estimation results indicate that OC use is positively associated with age, willingness to pay for contraceptive effectiveness, frequency of intercourse and experience with abortion or emergency contraception. These findings suggest that OC use increases as women learn from experience and that the low and declining frequency of intercourse in Japan offers one explanation for the slow diffusion of OC. Additionally, the findings indicate that OC use is more prevalent among women with a higher risk of unintended pregnancies. Subjective probabilities regarding each contraceptive method's contraceptive effectiveness, disruption of romantic moods, partner disapproval, side benefits and minor, non-life-threatening side effects are important determinants of contraceptive choice. The perceived risk levels of OC side effects are significantly higher than the population-based probabilities, implying that increased medical knowledge might increase OC use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the origin and evolution of modern human behaviors have become a common topic of research in Paleolithic archaeology. One important part of modern human behavior, blade technology, was once thought to be unique to modern humans. Recent studies have suggested that variations in blade technology do not fully correspond to modern populations. However, the standardization, diversity, discontinuity in terms of time distribution, and differences in spatial distribution of blade technology give it an important role in discussions of modes of adaptation, diffusion of technology, and population migration of hominins. By categorizing the major blade assemblages in China, we show that there were two blade reduction methods in northern China: the Levallois method and the prismatic method. Dating back 30000-40000 years, the Levallois and prismatic blade method combined to form the characteristics of the early stage of the Upper Paleolithic. Artifacts bearing such characteristics are located in Northwest China, Northeast China, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The unearthed blades are similar in technological organization and are connected geographically with those discovered in Siberia and Mongolia, which also indicates a distinct border from those discovered in northern China. This fact is suggestive of population immigration. About 25000-29000 years ago, a combination of prismatic blades and microblades was developed in the hinterland of China; however whether it can be regarded as the representative of population migration or only a technological adaption remains undetermined. We suggest that the system of production of different blades should be distinguished in the study of blade assemblages and that different blade methods should not be integrated into a single technical system to discuss technology diffusion and population dispersal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper begins by surveying recent economic studies of the relationships between technology transfer, intellectual property, innovation and diffusion in emerging countries. It applies this literature to the Indian case. India has been experiencing rapid growth and has several high technology sectors staffed by an absolutely large and highly educated middle class. At the same time an even larger share of its very big population is still working in low productivity agriculture and many of these people are living in extreme poverty. Thus it needs to innovate and grow to employ its vast army of unskilled workers. The second part of the paper outlines how industry structure and innovative performance were progressing in India following the economic reforms of the early 1990s and the changes to intellectual property law occasioned by the TRIPS agreement. In the third section the focus turns to recent science, technology and innovation policy in India. A study of the country's potential for innovation by the World Bank in 2007 argued that India must proceed on two fronts. In addition to considering how India's growth prospects can be enhanced by world leading innovations, this volume placed great emphasis on inclusive innovation. This involves mainly the diffusion and absorption of existing knowledge, but is designed to improve the lot of the poor. The World Bank report proposed a number of new policy directions aimed at speeding up innovation and technology diffusion in India. We record what changes have been made to innovation policy, foreign direct investment policy and diffusion policy in India in recent years and assess whether these are likely to be effective in enhancing India's ability to innovate and achieve rapid growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on a novel phenomenon-mobile banking diffusion-to illuminate unresolved questions: whether and how rivalry adoption and market structure affect the diffusion of a new technology. Using a unique, hand-collected dataset from the iTunes Store for 2008-2012, this study provides evidence that the adoptions of mobile banking apps by local rivals spur future adoptions. This effect is particularly strong in concentrated markets, where banks compete on non-price attributes. These results are robust to the application of instrumental variables that address the possibility that adoptions are merely simultaneous reactions to the same common forces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Innovation resistances play a major role in innovation diffusion, as they do not only hinder the adoption, but might also change a decision maker's evaluation. Although these influences are widely accepted, previous models on the diffusion of new technologies and products have either reduced these multiple dimensions of uncertainties to only one parameter, or have completely neglected them altogether. Both might lead to a pro-innovation bias. Therefore we present an agent-based approach that takes several different innovation resistances in a multi-generation environment into account. Hydrogen vehicles and the necessity of setting up a corresponding infrastructure were chosen for a sample application as they incorporate a band of various dimensions of innovation resistance. Examples are the uncertain infrastructure situation, the uncertainty arising from new and improved features, the uncertainty about the technologies' real ecological benefit, the unknown maintenance cycles and costs, or the ambiguous technical parameters such as vehicle range. These various uncertainties are even more distinctive if multiple technology generations are considered. Our results indicate that a short-term decrease in the adoption rate can be observed although the technological parameters of a later product generation might be more beneficial for the consumers. As we show, this effect can be eased through timing variation of the communication measures. Therefore we conclude that considering multiple innovation resistance factors in innovation diffusion might reduce the pro-innovation bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study developed epidemic models to predict the diffusion of remediation technology. Hypotheses were derived from the models and then tested using data collected from a questionnaire survey ( n = 223) and a qualitative interview ( n = 28) mainly conducted in the USA, UK, and China, as well as data from the US Superfund program. Hypothesis testing results indicate that: (1) tacit knowledge in innovative remedial technologies leads to logistic rather than exponential growth in their adoption, and (2) social-economic and regulatory factors affect the adoption of remediation technologies. For specific remedial technologies adopted in the US Superfund program, it was found that in-situ bioremediation (ISB) has a higher maximum adoption rate than in-situ chemical treatment (ISC), likely due to lower cost and higher social acceptance associated with ISB. The diffusion of ISC was found to be more rapid than that of ISB due to a greater degree of tacit knowledge associated with ISB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine variations in the South-North ratios (emerging vs. industrialized countries) of energy and labor intensities driven by imports. We use the novel World input-output database that provides bilateral and bisectoral data for 40 countries and 35 sectors for 1995-2009. We find South-North convergence of energy and labor intensities, an energy bias of import-driven convergence and no robust difference between imports of intermediate and investment goods. Accordingly, trade helps emerging economies follow a 'green growth' path, and trade-related policies can enhance this path. However, the effects are economically small and require a long time horizon to become effective. Trade-related policies can become much more effective in selected countries and sectors: China attenuates labor intensity via imports of intermediate goods above average. Brazil reduces energy intensity via imports of intermediate and investment goods above average. Production of machinery as an importing sector in emerging countries can immoderately benefit from trade-related reductions in factor intensities. Electrical equipment as a traded good particularly decreases energy intensity. Machinery particularly dilutes labor intensity. Our main results are statistically highly significant and robust across specifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Will fast growing emerging economies sustain rapid growth rates until they 'catch-up' to the technology frontier? Are there incentives for some developed countries to free-ride off of innovators and optimally 'fall-back' relative to the frontier? This paper models agents growing as a result of investments in innovation and imitation. Imitation facilitates technology diffusion, with the productivity of imitation modeled by a catch-up function that increases with distance to the frontier. The resulting equilibrium is an endogenous segmentation between innovators and imitators, where imitating agents optimally choose to 'catch-up' or 'fall-back' to a productivity ratio below the frontier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]