Search

The electricity consumption in Hungary is at medium level compared with other countries in Europe. In 1993, the total consumption amounted to 27,4 TWh at a population of 10,3 million. Countries with similar populations have similar or higher consumption. The total available electricity at system-level accounted for 35,4 TWh in 1993, including network losses and self-consumption of the power plants.

This paper argues that it is not the lack of technologies that renders energy use in European (and world) cities inefficient and polluting, but the lack of effective regulatory frameworks and of acquaintance with modem integrated planning and financing tools. Describing the trend towards rising urban energy needs despite the high potential for energy efficiency, the paper advocates the strengthening of international cooperation (demonstration zones, networking, training) as a precondition for sustainable urban development in Europe.

Over the time scale of a century, the two key challenges facing us as a species are: 1) how to make a smooth, non-disruptive transition from a non-sustainable to a sustainable world economy, and 2) how to raise the living standards in the developing world up to a decent minimum. I believe our answers to these challenges will largely determine the kind of shape we are in at the end of the next century. The introduction and wide-scale adoption of energy-efficient technologies in the developing countries is essential for a successful response to these challenges. Furthermore, their adoption constitutes a critical part of our response to the threat of global climate change.

The International Energy Workshop (IEW) is a loosely organized group of energy analysts who all produce and/or make use of energy projections (see the OPEC Review Autumn 1986 and Spring 1988 issues for earlier presentations). Organized jointly by Stanford University and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the IEW collects energy projections submitted by its members from all over the world on a standard poll form. These poll responses include projections of the international crude oil price, gross national product growth, electricity generation, primary energy consumption, production and trade. For reasons of comparability, the responses are grouped into the following regions: Soviet Union and Eastern Europe (SU/EE) China OECD OPEC Non-OPEC developing countries (NODC) Market economies, subtotal World, total Individual countries and other regions.

The industrialization process in the second half of the nineteenth century in Europe and the US was accompanied by the growth of mineral fuel consumption. Although wood still dominated energy consumption in 1880, mineral fuels were rapidly gaining importance. In the first instance coal developed as the major energy input in these economies.

Recently developed energy scenarios for the future show a heavy dependence on fossil fuels. Based on a tandem model of the global carbon cycle, and on estimates of the temperature effect relationship, the impact of various future energy scenarios on atmospheric CO2-concentration and global average temperature are calculated. It is found that several scenarios would lead to drastic changes in atmospheric CO2-concentration. It is also pointed to the fact that, after detecting a CO2-signal, long lead times are expected during which atmospheric CO2-concentration would still increase.

The primary energy consumption in the European Community for domestic and commercial heating is 26%. When we discuss heat pumps we discuss a reduction in energy use of this 26%. Presently heating is predominantly provided by conventional boilers which have a seasonal efficiency of 60% to 70%. As a comparison the technically feasible efficiencies are given for three types of heat pumps (Table 1). If each of these heat pumps would replace the conventional boilers, this would result in energy savings which are given in the second column of the table.