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The threat of sea-level rise and climate change means that coastal managers are being increasingly asked to make long-term assessments of potential coastal impacts and responses. In the UK, shoreline management planning (for flood and erosion hazards) and spatial planning now takes a 100 year perspective. An integrated framework across a wide range of physical and social issues is required for the assessment of coastal impacts and consequently for making sound management decisions. This paper provides an overview of the development of the ‘Tyndall Coastal Simulator’ including the underlying philosophy that is being followed. The Simulator is based on a series of linked climate models (CM) within a nested framework which recognises three spatial scales: (i) the global (GCM) scale; (ii) the regional scale and (iii) the Simulator Domain (a physiographic unit, such as a coastal sub-cell). Within the nesting, the larger scale provides the boundary conditions for the smaller scale. The models feed into each other and describe a range of relevant processes: sea level, tides, surges, waves, sediment transport and coastal morphology. Different climate scenarios, as well as the range of uncertainty, are being explored. Communication of results is a major issue and the Simulator includes a dedicated GIS-based user interface that allows a wide range of queries of model outputs. The paper demonstrates the possibility of developing an integrated framework that is multi-scale and capable of linking various models in order to simulate complex coastal processes and consequently allowing long-term assessments that are useful for setting future management plans.

A key challenge facing coastal management organisations is the need to effectively communicate the potential risks posed by coastal change and associated adaptation options, particularly if the potential for misunderstanding and conflict is to be avoided (e.g. in cases which are scientifically complex and involve many interested parties). GIS technology is appropriate and widely used by coastal planners and managers; however, its application in decision-making processes is often hampered by the highly technical output that they tend to produce. This can prove particularly difficult for members of the public to interpret. The dynamic, multidimensional and uncertain nature of the coastal zone presents particular challenges to those wishing to communicate possible future coastal change and management options.

Coastal zones exemplify the environmental pressures we face: their beauty attracts settlement, they offer potential for diverse economic activities, and they are sensitive natural habitats for important species, as well as providing a range of ecosystem services. They are also extremely vulnerable to the vicissitudes of climate change, which include rising sea levels and changes in extreme events such as storms. With large populations living in coastal and estuarine cities facing the ongoing threat of inundation, coordinated management is essential, especially as coastal zones form a linked system in which piecemeal, uncoordinated management could be counterproductive.

The Tyndall Coastal Simulator comprised a wide range of modelling activities across disciplines and institutions. This activity generated diverse results, described in the preceding chapters. Organising this body of knowledge into a coherent and accessible form for use by stakeholders and for additional ad hoc analyses emerged as a substantial task in its own right.

The transportation of hazardous materials (such as flammable gases, corrosive liquids or toxic wastes) is a common occurrence in most industrialised societies. Research in the USA during the early 1990s calculated that there were some 500,000 shipments of hazardous materials every day (Turnquist and List 1993), while in the UK it is currently estimated that each year approximately 80,000 different organisations are involved in carrying around 100,000 tonnes of dangerous goods by road and rail (Health and Safety Executive 2001). Legislation typically requires that such substances are transported using specialist vehicles or containers, with appropriate labelling, and sometimes on designated routes (Kramer 1992), but accidental releases of hazardous materials do occur despite these types of mitigation measures. These releases have led to incidents such as explosions, the dispersion of toxic gas plumes, and pollution of soil or groundwater, with human fatalities in some of the most severe cases (Erkut and Verter 1995). One UK evaluation of accidents involving hazardous substances that required the fire service concluded that more than 25% of the incidents could be classed as ’in transit’ rather than ’static’ (Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution 1994), and a growing awareness of the enhanced risks during transportation has led to a number of government reviews or academic studies (e.g. Advisory Committee on Dangerous Substances 1991, Moses and Lindstrom 1993).