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The Tibetan Plateau works as an important environmental and ecological barrier for the Asian continent. The researches on Tibetan environment and ecology are becoming extensive, but there is no systematic summary of research hotspots and trends in this field. Here, we analyzed 9180 publications retrieved from the WOS and CNKI during 2000 ~ 2020. The characteristics of publication, keywords with a 5-year interval and co-occurrence analysis were carried out so as to reveal the evolution and development trends of topics. The results show that articles increase dramatically since 2012. Except for common concerns like evolution, climate change, and precipitation, diversity was been studied more by Chinese scholars, while the USA, Germany, UK, and Australia researchers focused more on adaptability, basin western Tibet, lake, barley, and ore-related themes, respectively. Besides, China closely collaborated with the USA, Australia, and Germany in topics of evolution, climate change and degradation, precipitation, and diversity. The institutions located in Chinese different economic regions focused on different research keywords, such as vegetation, growth, trace elements, and geochemistry. The CAS contributed the most articles with 4254, showed advantages both in quantity and quality. Few articles were published by researchers affiliated to Free University of Berlin but with higher citations. It is the only one institute outside of China in the top 20. Main research hotspots include climate change, geology, and diversity. In future researches, ecological management and rehabilitation of mining area and tailings ponds, waste disposal, and changes of soil and water quality are worthy of attention and funding.

Climate change represents one of the most pressing societal and scientific challenges of our time. While much of the current research on climate change focuses on future prediction, some of the strongest signals of warming can already be seen in Arctic and alpine areas, where temperatures are rising faster than the global average, and in the oceans, where the combination of rising temperatures and acidification due to increased CO2 concentrations has had catastrophic consequences for sensitive marine organisms inhabiting coral reefs. The scientific papers highlighted as part of this anniversary issue represent some of the most impactful advances in our understanding of the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we reflect on the legacy of these papers from the biotic perspective.

Special issue on the impact of biological factors on hydrological processes, edited by the authors of this Foreword, brings together 11 full-text papers on these complex interactions, ranging in scale from storing the water by lichen species to competing the nations for increasingly scarce water resources in securitized transboundary watersheds. In addition to these “boundary-scale” biohydrology papers, 4 papers assess the impact of land use on soil properties, 3 papers estimate the effect of biological factors on the downward and upward movements of water in the vadose zone of soil, and 2 papers evaluated the amount of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculturally utilized soil and forest fires. We would like to conclude by expressing our hope that the papers published in the present special issue will act as a stimulus for initiating new research projects and contribute to finding solutions to the global threats of water scarcity and soil degradation. It is absolutely crucial to increase our chances of surviving the current climate change and to reach a more sustainable society in the future.

In his article Willems (Clim Chang 120(4):931–944, 2013) proposed a methodology to analyse extremes in rainfall series. When applying it to artificially generated, non-cyclic random variables we were able to detect cyclic behavior. Therefor we had a closer look on the methodology. Here we discuss our considerations, why this method generates cycles, depending on chosen subperiods and their coherence between detected cycle lengths. To verify these relationships some examples based on random data samples are given.

Marine seismic data has been collected for several decades in both academia and industry. Early single channel acquisitions were often, if at all, recorded on magnetic media that are generally no longer supported for replay. Although seismic data over 10 years old has limited quality compared to modern acquisition, thousands of survey km of hard copy records remains world wide in areas with no recent coverage. In addition, many processed multi-channel datasets are now not available as digital files for a variety of reasons. Rising interest in continental margin geology in response to climate change priorities and the UNCLOS submission requirements of maritime states has created a demand to re-use these older records where the cost of new or re-acquisition is not pragmatic. Through creating digital SEG-Y files from images of these records they can be reprocessed and re-interpreted. This paper investigates the practicalities of paper seismic record re-use and measures the performance of a typical conversion option as an indicator of the validity of the concept. Examples of applications of the process illustrate what can be achieved and the limitations that exist so that users can make an informed choice of whether to resurrect their information.

Kirschbaum (Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 11:1151–1164, 2006) explores the climatic impact over time of temporarily sequestering carbon from the atmosphere. He concludes that temporary storage of carbon in the terrestrial biosphere “achieves effectively no climate-change mitigation”. His strongly worded statement begs for a response. This paper argues that Kirschbaum’s conclusion is an artifact of the specific perspective of his analysis and his choice of a definition for climate-change impact. Even temporary sinks put us on a lower path for climate change, a path that will not otherwise be accessible. For carbon sinks in the terrestrial biosphere, we argue that sooner is better and longer is better, but even known temporary sinks have value.

One of the central aims of ecology is to identify mechanisms that maintain biodiversity. Numerous theoretical models have shown that competing species can coexist if ecological processes such as dispersal, movement, and interaction occur over small spatial scales. In particular, this may be the case for non-transitive communities, that is, those without strict competitive hierarchies. The classic non-transitive system involves a community of three competing species satisfying a relationship similar to the children's game rock-paper-scissors, where rock crushes scissors, scissors cuts paper, and paper covers rock. Such relationships have been demonstrated in several natural systems. Some models predict that local interaction and dispersal are sufficient to ensure coexistence of all three species in such a community, whereas diversity is lost when ecological processes occur over larger scales. Here, we test these predictions empirically using a non-transitive model community containing three populations of Escherichia coli. We find that diversity is rapidly lost in our experimental community when dispersal and interaction occur over relatively large spatial scales, whereas all populations coexist when ecological processes are localized.

Antarctic subglacial lakes have, over the past few years, been hypothesised to house unique forms of life and hold detailed sedimentary records of past climate change. Testing this hypothesis requires in situ examinations. The direct measurement of subglacial lakes has been considered ever since the largest and best-known lake, named Lake Vostok, was identified as having a deep water-column. The Subglacial Antarctic Lake Environments (SALE) programme, set up by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) to oversee subglacial lakes research, state that prior exploration of smaller lakes would be a “prudent way forward”. Over 145 subglacial lakes are known to exist in Antarctica, but one lake in West Antarctica, officially named Ellsworth Subglacial Lake (referred to hereafter as Lake Ellsworth), stands out as a candidate for early exploration. A consortium of over 20 scientists from seven countries and 14 institutions has been assembled to plan the exploration of Lake Ellsworth. An eight-year programme is envisaged: 3 years for a geophysical survey, 2 years for equipment development and testing, 1 year for field planning and operation, and 2 years for sample analysis and data interpretation. The science experiment is simple in concept but complex in execution. Lake Ellsworth will be accessed using hot water drilling. Once lake access is achieved, a probe will be lowered down the borehole and into the lake. The probe will contain a series of instruments to measure biological, chemical and physical characteristics of the lake water and sediments, and will utilise a tether to the ice surface through which power, communication and data will be transmitted. The probe will pass through the water column to the lake floor. The probe will then be pulled up and out of the lake, measuring its environment continually as this is done. Once at the ice surface, any water samples collected will be taken from the probe for laboratory analysis (to take place over subsequent years). The duration of the science mission, from deployment of the probe to its retrieval, is likely to take between 24 and 36 h. Measurements to be taken by the probe will provide data about the following: depth, pressure, conductivity and temperature; pH levels; biomolecules (using life marker chips); anions (using a chemical analyzer); visualisation of the environment (using cameras and light sources); dissolved gases (using chromatography); and morphology of the lake floor and sediment structures (using sonar). After the probe has been retrieved, a sediment corer may be dropped into the lake to recover material from the lake floor. Finally, if time permits, a thermistor string may be left in the lake water to take time-dependent measurements of the lake’s water column over subsequent years. Given that the comprehensive geophysical survey of the lake will take place in two seasons during 2007–2009, a two-year instrument and logistic development phase from 2008 (after the lake’s bathymetry has been assessed) makes it possible that the exploration of Lake Ellsworth could take place at the beginning of the next decade.

The discussion reviews the prevailing pattern of energy demand and supply in the MINK states, speculates on the region's long-term energy future in the absence and presence of greenhouse warming, and, in the latter case, considers energy sector adaptation to such a prospect. Climate-sensitive energydemand is dominated by heating and cooling in various sectors of the regional economy (around 20% of regional energy consumption) and by such agricultural applications as irrigation pumping and crop drying (around 5%). A climate-sensitive energysupply issue of some importance is the region's partial dependence on hydroelectric capacity in the upper Missouri river basin. The analysis finds that, unlike the rather significant impacts likely to be experienced by other sectors of the regional economy, the hypothesized warming trend will translate into only small net increases in energy demand; and that technological possibilities and policy measures are available to mute any serious climatic effects on the energy sector.

The impacts of climate change on the agricultural, energy, forestry, and water sectors of MINK would reverberate negatively throughout the regional economy. Allowing for sectoral adjustments to the new climate, however, the decline in regional income and production would not likely exceed 1–2%. The largest economy-wide impacts would be by way of the agricultural and water sectors. The impacts by way of forestry and energy would be negligible, unless the nation adopts a program of massive reforestation to capture CO2, which would positively affect the regional economy.

The adaptability of forests in the U.S. midwest to a changing climate is assessed. The forests of Missouri are simulated with a ‘forest-gap’ model, a stochastic model of the annual growth and mortality of trees within mixed-species forest plots. The development of representative forest plots under an analog climate like that of the 1930s is compared to development under baseline climate conditions. With no management response, average forest biomass in the region declines by 11% within ten years, primarily due to moisture-stress induced mortality. Longer term declines in forest productivity on the order of 30% are simulated. A variety of possible management responses through planting or harvesting practices were evaluated. None of these adaptations appear to be practical, although the salvage harvest of stressed trees would offset the economifc losses associated with the early mortality. An investigation of anticipated trends in the broader forest products sector suggests that opportunities for further adaptation to offset the decline in primary productivity of this region's forest are quite limited. However, a shift to wood powered electrical generation in the region might justify a level of management that would allow some adaptation to the analog climate change.

A four step methodology has been developed for study of the regional impacts of climate change and the possible responses thereto. First the region's climate sensitive sectors and total economy are described (Task A, current baseline). Next a scenario of climate change is imposed on the current baseline (Task B, current baseline with climate change). A new baseline describing the climate sensitive sectors and total regional economy is projected for some time in the future (Task C, future baseline, year 2030) in the absence of climate change. Finally, the climate change scenario is reimposed on the future baseline (Task D, future baseline with climate change). Impacts of the climate change scenario on the current and future regional economies are determined by means of simulation models and other appropriate techniques. These techniques are also used to assess the impacts of an elevated CO2 concentration (450 ppm) and of various forms of adjustments and adaptations.

The climate of the 1930s was used as an analog of the climate that might occur in Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas (the MINK region) as a consequence of global warming. The analog climate was imposed on the agriculture of the region under technological and economic conditions prevailing in 1984/87 and again under a scenario of conditions that might prevail in 2030. The EPIC model of Williamset al. (1984), modified to allow consideration of the yield enhancing effects of CO2 enrichment, was used to evaluate the impacts of the analog climate on the productivity and water use of some 50 representative farm enterprises. Before farm level adjustments and adaptations to the changed climate, and absent CO2 enrichment (from 350 to 450 ppm), production of corn, sorghum and soybeans was depressed by the analog climate in about the same percent under both current and 2030 conditions. Production of dryland wheat was unaffected. Irrigated wheat production actually increased. Farm level adjustments using low-cost currently available technologies, combined with CO2 enrichment, eliminated about 80% of the negative impact of the analog climate on 1984/87 baseline crop production. The same farm level adjustments, plus new technologies developed in response to the analog climate, when combined with CO2 enrichment, converted the negative impact on 2030 crop production to a small increase. The analog climate would have little direct effect on animal production in MINK. The effect, if any, would be by way of the impact on production of feed-grains and soybeans. Since this impact would be small after on-farm adjustments and CO2 enrichment, animal production in MINK would be little affected by the analog climate.

There has been a consistent rise in urban disasters, particularly in developing countries located in tropical areas. Among various challenges of disaster risk management and climate change impacts, it is noted that most residents are poorly informed about their risk exposure or apposite response. The paper is based on the premise that one important cause for this gap is inadequate emphasis on risk communication at different levels of planning and agreements. Accordingly, it highlights some important gaps in the risk communication across international agreements including Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR), Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and evaluates their impacts at the local level. It brings three selected urban case studies located in the tropical areas of the South Asia region that illustrate gaps in risk communication that result in enhanced vulnerability and deviations in response. The findings are based on secondary data and literature focusing on global agreements, risk communication, and disaster response. The paper argues that even though global strategies address urban risks, the fragmented nature of risk communication results in poor response and contributes to losses that occur in disasters. Three critical gaps noted in risk communication include (i) it not prioritized at different levels, (ii) inadequate structures to measure its impacts and stakeholders inclusiveness, and (iii) indifference to cultural diversity and integration. Further, it is suggested that there is a need to redefine risk communication at the global scale that extends beyond warning generation and considers multiple factors influencing response including interlinked vulnerabilities and variations in perceptions emerging from varied geographical, socio-cultural, economic, and political processes.

Research on heat waves (periods of excessively hot weather, which may be accompanied by high humidity) is a newly emerging research topic within the field of climate change research with high relevance for the whole of society. In this study, we analyzed the rapidly growing scientific literature dealing with heat waves. No summarizing overview has been published on this literature hitherto. We developed a suitable search query to retrieve the relevant literature covered by the Web of Science (WoS) as complete as possible and to exclude irrelevant literature (n = 8,011 papers). The time-evolution of the publications shows that research dealing with heat waves is a highly dynamic research topic, doubling within about 5 years. An analysis of the thematic content reveals the most severe heat wave events within the recent decades (1995 and 2003), the cities and countries/regions affected (United States, Europe, and Australia), and the ecological and medical impacts (drought, urban heat islands, excess hospital admissions, and mortality). Risk estimation and future strategies for adaptation to hot weather are major political issues. We identified 104 citation classics which include fundamental early works of research on heat waves and more recent works (which are characterized by a relatively strong connection to climate change)., 40 pages, 2 tables, and 9 figures

A common problem that arises in extreme value theory when dealing with several variables (such as weather or meteorological) is to find an appropriate method to assess their joint or conditional multivariate extremal dependence behaviour. The method for choosing an appropriate threshold in peaks-over threshold approach is also another problem of endless debate. In this era of climate change and global warming, extreme temperatures accompanied by heat waves and cold waves pose serious economic and health challenges particularly in small economies or developing countries like South Africa. The present study attempts to address these problems, in particular, to deal with and capture dependencies in extreme values of two variables, by applying bivariate conditional extremes modelling with a time-varying threshold to Limpopo province's monthly maximum temperature series. Limpopo and North West provinces are the two hottest provinces in South Africa characterised by heat waves and the present study is carried out in the Limpopo province at Mara, Messina, Polokwane and Thabazimbi meteorological stations for the period 1994-2009. With the aim to model extremal dependence of maximum temperature at these four meteorological stations, two modelling approaches are applied: bivariate conditional extremes model and time-varying threshold. The latter approach was used to capture the climate change effects in the data. The main contribution of this paper is in combining these two approaches in bivariate extremal dependence modelling of maximum temperature extremes in the Limpopo province of South Africa. The findings of the study revealed both significant positive and negative extremal dependence in some pairs of meteorological stations. Among the major findings were the significant strong positive extremal dependence of Thabazimbi on high-temperature values at Mara and the strong negative extremal dependence of Polokwane on high-temperature values at Messina. The findings of this study play an important role in revealing information useful to meteorologists, climatologists, agriculturalists, and planners in the energy sector among others.

Climate change affects butterflies in many ways, influencing the timing of emergence and reproduction, habitat preferences, and behaviour. The small blue (Cupido minimus Fuessley, 1775) is highly specialised in its host plant requirements, feeding on the seeds of a single species, kidney vetch (Anthyllis vulneraria), on which the larvae occur singly to avoid cannibalism. The butterfly is likely to be vulnerable to temperature-related changes in oviposition, adult emergence, and host plant flowering times, and is, therefore, a good model species for investigating climate change-related impacts. Using 26 years of data from the national UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (1993-2019) from one nature reserve, and 4 years of targeted egg searches (2006, 2007, 2008, 2020) from three reserves in Bedfordshire, UK, we investigated the effects of local temperature on small blue emergence date and total abundance, whether flowerhead or local environmental characteristics predicted small blue oviposition behaviour, and whether this changed between years. Small blue adults emerged on earlier dates over time, and earlier in years with higher maximum February temperatures. Total adult abundance was not predicted by monthly temperatures or total abundance in the previous year. Oviposition behaviour was broadly consistent across years, with egg presence more likely and egg abundance higher on kidney vetch flowerheads that were taller than the surrounding vegetation, and surrounded by taller vegetation and fewer mature flowerheads. The effect of solar radiation differed between years, with a negative effect on the probability of egg presence in 2007 and 2008, but a positive effect in 2020. Egg abundance per flowerhead was highly variable between years, with 2006 having four times more eggs per flowerhead than other years. This was likely driven by high adult abundance in 2006, which could have increased competition for flowerheads. Implications for insect conservation: Our results indicate that management for greater availability of taller kidney vetch amongst taller vegetation would encourage small blue oviposition on a greater number of flowerheads, providing a possible means of reducing competition and increasing larval survival, and that this would be effective despite variation in adult abundance between years. The high level of competition we observed in the year with the highest adult abundance indicates that higher numbers of host plants should be encouraged to reduce competition and larval cannibalism in peak years, increasing the likelihood of long-term population persistence and growth. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10841-021-00360-5., SITA Trust Landfill Community, Bedfordshire and Northamptonshire Butterfly Conservation, Balfour Browne fund, Natural England, Isaac Newton Trust/Wellcome TrustISSF/University of Cambridge Joint Research Grants Scheme (RG89529)

Augmentals, as a type of verbal rule, have been used in political speeches either for establishing beneficial cultural values for the populace (Leigland, 2005) or for publicizing political points of view to exert control on public opinion through propaganda (Rakos, 1993). The current study conducted a functional content analysis on two presidential speeches about climate change and global warming regarding whether the United States should enter or exit the Paris Climate Agreement. The purposes of the study were to (a) examine the effects of two types of augmentals (reinforcer-establishing augmentals and punisher-establishing augmentals) on behavior change in the populace, (b) explore the effects of the types of relational frames that formed augmentals, and (c) provide guidance to the public on discriminating propaganda in media sources. The results showed different patterns in the use of augmentals in Donald Trump’s speech, which attempted to persuade the populace to support exiting the agreement, compared to Barack Obama’s speech, which attempted to persuade the populace to support entering the agreement. Several implications of the study are discussed.

The frequency and intensity of extreme events especially heat waves (HW) are growing all around the world which ultimately poses a serious threat to the health of individuals. To quantify the effects of extreme temperature, appropriate information, and the importance of HW and heat index (HI) are carefully discussed for different parts of the world. Varied definitions of the HW and HI formula proposed and used by different countries are carried out systematically continent-wise. Different studies highlighted the number of definitions of HW; however, mostly used Steadman’s formulae, which was developed in the late 1970s, for the calculation of HI that uses surface air temperature and relative humidity as climatic fields. Since then, dramatic changes in climatic conditions have been observed as evident from the ERA5 datasets which need to be addressed; likewise, the definition of HW, which is modified by the researchers as per the geographic conditions. It is evident from the ERA5 data that the temperature has increased by 1–2 °C as compared to the 1980s. There is a threefold increase in the number of heatwave days over most of the continents in the last 40 years. This study will help the researcher community to understand the importance of HW and HI. Furthermore, it opens the scope to develop an equation based on the present scenario keeping in mind the basics of an index as considered by Steadman.

Bark beetle outbreaks and forest fires have imposed severe ecological damage and caused billions of dollars in lost resources in recent decades. The impact of such combined disturbances is projected to become more severe, especially as climate change takes its toll on forest ecosystems in the coming years. Here, we investigate the impact of multiple disturbances in a demographically heterogeneous tree population, using an age-structured difference equation model of bark beetle outbreaks and forest fires. We identify two dynamical regimes for beetle and fire dynamics. The model predicts that fire helps dampen beetle outbreaks not only by removing host trees but also by altering the demographic structure of forest stands. We show that a stand thinning protocol, which reduces the population size of the largest few juvenile classes by a small percentage, is able to significantly reduce beetle-induced tree mortality. Our research demonstrates one approach to capturing compound disturbances in a mathematical model. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s12080-021-00520-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Climate change is affecting many living organisms; however, the responses of many of them remain unknown. In this paper, we present the results regarding the response of a bird species from the rallid family to the increased temperatures during the breeding season. We analysed the breeding data of Eurasian Coots nesting during 30 seasons between 1972 and 2019. During the study period, mean temperatures in April, the month when Coots start nesting, increased by 3.5 °C, and in months corresponding with the species breeding season by 2.6 °C. Breeding Coots advanced their earliest and median laying dates across the study period; however, the duration of their breeding season remained unchanged. We did not detect any significant temporal changes in clutch size, but clutches have become much more variable in size throughout the study period. Nest failures and production of offspring per nest did not change over the study period; however, the production of young per successful nest significantly declined. It is likely that this decline is the effect of mismatch between the period of food abundance (dipterans collected from water), and hatchling emergence, which is advanced due to change in climate. Future studies investigating the occurrence of dipteran resources at water bodies are needed to test this hypothesis. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s00484-020-01972-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The twig method in climate chambers has been shown to successfully work as a proxy for outdoor manipulations in various experimental setups. This study was conducted to further establish this method for the investigation of allergenic pollen from tree species (hazel, alder, and birch). Direct comparison under outdoor conditions revealed that the cut twigs compared to donor trees were similar in the timing of flowering and the amount of pollen produced. Cut twigs were able to flower in climate chambers and produced a sufficient amount of pollen for subsequent laboratory analysis. The addition of different plant or tissue fertilizers in the irrigation of the twigs did not have any influence; rather, the regular exchange of water and the usage of fungicide were sufficient for reaching the stage of flowering. In the experimental setup, the twigs were cut in different intervals before the actual flowering and were put under warming conditions in the climate chamber. An impact of warming on the timing of flowering/pollen characteristics could be seen for the investigated species. Therefore, the twig method is well applicable for experimental settings in pollen research simulating, e.g., accelerated warming under climate change.

Recently, many studies worldwide tapped tree ring pattern for detection of growth events and trends caused by weather extremes and climate change. As long-term experiments with permanent survey of all trees are rare, growth trend analyses are mostly based on retrospective measurements of growth via increment coring or stem analyses of the remaining individual trees in older forest stands. However, the growth of the survivor trees in older stands may only unsufficiently represent the course of growth of the dominant trees throughout the stand development. Here, the more than 100 years survey data of the European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) thinning experiment Fabrikschleichach in South Germany are used to show the long-term changes in social ranking of trees and their consequences for growth trend detection by retrospective tree ring analyses, for stand dynamics and silvicultural management. Firstly, a significant social upwards drift of initially medium-sized trees till 2010 is shown based on the trees' percentiles in the stem diameter distribution in 1904 versus 2010. The social climbing is stronger on the thinned compared to the unthinned plots. Secondly, we show that 40–60% of the 100 tallest trees in 1904 were replaced by social climbers and down-ranked below the 100 tallest trees till 2010. Linear mixed model analyses reveal that the long-term trend of the diameter growth of the 100 dominant survivors in 2010 was on average by 23% steeper than the trend of the 100 tallest starters in 1904. This indicates that the survivors had a steeper and longer lasting growth than the originally dominant trees. Thirdly, the diameter growth trend in the last 20 years, from 1990 to 2010, is analyzed in dependency on the current and past social position. A linear model shows that early subdominance or suppression can significantly steepen the growth trend a century later and vice versa.Finally, we discuss the implications of the social drift for the survivor-based growth trend analyses, for the stand dynamics, and silvicultural management.

In order to assess the influence of atmospheric conditions and particulate matter (PM) on the seasonally varying incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) in the capital of Poland—Warsaw, we analysed time series of ILI reported for the about 1.75 million residents in total and for different age groups in 288 approximately weekly periods, covering 6 years 2013–2018. Using Poisson regression, we predicted ILI by the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as biometeorological indicator, and by PM2.5 and PM10, respectively, as air quality measures accounting for lagged effects spanning up to 3 weeks. Excess ILI incidence after adjusting for seasonal and annual trends was calculated by fitting generalized additive models. ILI morbidity increased with rising PM concentrations, for both PM2.5 and PM10, and with cooler atmospheric conditions as indicated by decreasingUTCI. While the PM effect focused on the actual reporting period, the atmospheric influence exhibited a more evenly distributed lagged effect pattern over the considered 3-week period. Though ILI incidence adjusted for population size significantly declined with age, age did not significantly modify the effect sizes of both PM andUTCI. These findings contribute to better understanding environmental conditionings of influenza seasonality in a temperate climate. This will be beneficial to forecasting future dynamics of ILI and to planning clinical and public health resources under climate change scenarios.

Plant phenological dataset collected at 42 sites across the mainland of Finland and covering the years 1997–2017 is presented and analysed for temporal trends. The dataset of n = 16,257 observations represents eleven plant species and fifteen phenological stages and results in forty different variables, i.e. phenophases. Trend analysis was carried out for n = 808 phenological time-series that contained at least 10 observations over the 21-year study period. A clear signal of advancing spring and early-summer phenology was detected, 3.4 days decade−1, demonstrated by a high proportion of negative trends for phenophases occurring in April through June. Latitudinal correlation indicated stronger signal of spring and early-summer phenology towards the northern part of the study region. The autumn signal was less consistent and showed larger within-site variations than those observed in other seasons. More than 60% of the dates based on single tree/monitoring square were exactly the same as the averages from multiple trees/monitoring squares within the site. In particular, the reliability of data on autumn phenology was increased by multiple observations per site. The network is no longer active. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s00484-020-01961-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The quality of red wine is dependent on the presence not only of volatile compounds that influence wine aroma but also on phenolic compounds due to their impact on mouthfeel, colour, flavour and ageing potential. Whereas wine aroma arises from the grapes, action of microorganisms and maturation phenomena, red wine phenolics are predominantly found in the grape berry skins and seeds and are extracted during maceration into the fermenting must (i.e. grape solids and juice). Thus, although every step in winemaking has a significant impact on the outcome of the finished product, it can be considered that fermentation and the ensuing extraction of grape components are the most critical value adding step in the process. This mini-review examines such aspects, and against this backdrop, considers the need for improvements to fermentation control during wine production, to optimise the outcome of extraction from grape solids. Specifically, there is interest in modulating and forecasting wine composition based on grape specifications, and with this, the ability to regulate winery production practices to achieve target quality specifications. Such predictions and measures are proposed to help winemakers adapt to emerging issues associated with climate change. KEY POINTS: • Definition and description of important grape metabolites extracted during winemaking. • Description of processes influencing development and extraction of grape components. • Includes key aspects related to vineyard, harvesting, winemaking, and ageing. • Covers future trends regarding extrac Mini-Reviewtion, climate change and production efficiency.

Since climate change education is an integral element in the increasingly urgent global approach to solving the problem of climate change, understanding perceptions of climate change among teachers in different academic institutions could play a significant role in how and to what extent institutions address the need to educate learners on this subject, specifically, and participate in other climate change mitigation strategies, in general. This study, therefore, examines teachers’ perceptions of climate change regarding its significance, causes, consequences, and mitigation, through analysis of a self-administered structured questionnaire completed by 95 teachers from public and private educational institutions in the city of Sylhet in Bangladesh. Results from descriptive and inferential statistical analysis show that public and private school teachers have an understanding of climate change regarding its significance, causes, consequences, and mitigation. The results also reveal that the sociodemographic characteristics of teachers, as well as academic-related factors, influence their perceptions of climate change. This research concludes that teachers in public institutions have a greater awareness and understanding of climate change than those working in private schools. The research findings have broader implications for further research and policy recommendations and, in particular, draw the attention of the Departments of Education and Disaster Management in Bangladesh or in countries with similar contexts to introduce environmental and disaster education and training opportunities for teachers.

Funder: Christ's College, University of Cambridge (GB), Funder: Isaac Newton Trust; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004815, Funder: Museums Association and Esmée Fairbairn Collections Fund (GB), The Duke of Burgundy butterfly (Hamearis lucina) is known to have specific habitat requirements for its larval foodplants. However, no studies have yet investigated whether these preferences vary over time or in relation to climate, and there is a paucity of data on whether management on reserves can replicate preferred conditions. Here, we build upon existing research to confirm which characteristics Duke of Burgundy prefer for their larval foodplants, whether preferences remain consistent across years, and whether conservation management on reserves can replicate these conditions. Fieldwork was carried out at Totternhoe Quarry Reserve, a chalk grassland site in Bedfordshire, UK. Confirming previous research, we found that large Primula plants in dense patches were chosen for oviposition, but that once chosen there was no preference to lay eggs on a plant’s largest leaf. Chosen foodplants were also more sheltered and in closer proximity to scrub than their controls. However, at a finer scale, we found little evidence for any preference based on differences in microclimate, or vegetation height immediately surrounding the plants. This suggests features that alter microclimatic conditions at a larger scale are relatively more important for determining the suitability of oviposition sites. Nearly all preferences remained consistent over time and did not vary between years. Management of scrub on the reserve was able to reproduce some preferred habitat features (high plant density), but not others (large plant size). Implications for insect conservation: The consistency of findings across years, despite inter-annual variation in temperature, rainfall and number of adults, indicates that the Duke of Burgundy is conservative in its foodplant choice, highlighting its need for specific habitat management. Targeted management for foodplants could form part of a tractable set of tools to support Duke of Burgundy numbers on reserves, but a careful balance is needed to avoid scrub clearance leaving plants in sub-optimal conditions.

CO2-induced climate change drives the development of renewable processes for industrial products. Algae processes can actively fix and convert CO2 into value adding products, such as oils. Algae lipids hence counteract climate change and provide access to renewable commodities. In this context, valorization of algal residues remaining after oil extraction is a challenge for the emerging cyclic bioeconomy. This study focuses on the valorization of oil-extracted algae residues derived from the halophilic strain Scenedesmus obliquus via anaerobic digestion. We examined the effect of prior oil extraction on microbial digestibility and increasing salt content in the substrate with regard to biogas yield and composition. Our cumulative data demonstrate that the supercritical CO2 oil extraction acts as a physical pretreatment that facilitates enhanced hydrolysis of both polymeric call wall carbohydrates and cellular proteins, providing methane yields of 213.2 LN kg−1 VS day−1. Methane yields were 20% higher than literature values obtained with the same algae strain in the absence of prior oil extraction. We obtained these superior results albeit all lipids and nonpolar proteins had been extracted from the biogas substrate. Our data indicate that continuous anaerobic digestion without loss of fermentation efficiency is feasible up to a salt concentration of 2% w/v, if conventional, agricultural biogas plants are gradually adapted to the salt content of the substrate. Monofermentation of the investigated oil-extracted algae residue is technically feasible at loading rates of 1.5 kg VS m−3 day−1, but a supplementation with carbohydrate rich biomass would prove beneficial to alleviate ammonia inhibition.

National nature reserves are important for preserving ecological resources and constructing national ecological security barriers. Tongguling National Nature Reserve (TNNR) is known for its unique tropical island ecosystem and abundant biological resources. This study was conducted to characterize and compare its bacterial community diversity and composition in soils from 10, 20, and 30 cm in depth using high-throughput sequencing of 16S rDNA genes. We found that soils from 20 cm had the highest diversity and might serve as a “middle bridge” to the dynamic distribution between the 10- and 30-cm soil samples. The diversity pattern indicated that the main abundant groups varied distinctly and significantly among soils of different depths. Moreover, Chloroflexi was the most dynamic group in TNNR soils, together with another abundant but rarely reported group, Verrucomicrobia, which greatly enhanced the microbial diversity of TNNR soils. Overall, the results of this study emphasize the urgent need for greater understanding of bacterial community variations in response to human activities and climate change. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s42770-019-00078-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Using 2016 household survey data from Tanzania, we define and measure resilience within the context of Population, Health, and Environment programming and quantify the link between resilience and family planning. We created a multicomponent model using confirmatory factor analysis in a structural equation modeling context. Factor loadings for eight defined latent factors of resilience were statistically significant (p

Global warming is considered as a phenomenon having a negative effect on animals living in cold climate. However, herbivorous species inhabiting cold zones may potentially benefit from increase of temperature as this influence duration of vegetation period and increase food resources. In this study, we analyze the impact of climate factors on the long-term dynamics of an isolated and unhunted population of the Tatra chamois Rupicapra rupicapra tatrica. The population growth rate, based on autumnal chamois counting carried out from 1957 to 2016, were correlated with a set of climatic variables. We tested the hypothesis that high temperatures in summer could have a positive impact on the population, since they influence vegetation growth, which ensure food resources. On the other hand, heavy falls of snow and long-lasting and deep snow cover could adversely affect the population by reducing population survival during the winter. The results of this study indicate that climatic variables best explaining the autoregressed population growth rate (from the autumn of year t-1 to the autumn of year t) were the mean summer temperature of year t-1: the population increase was greater following a warmer summer in year t-1 and, in lower extent, the total precipitation during winter: the population decrease was greater following a winter with heavy snowfall. Duration and thickness of snow cover have no negative effect on population growth rate. The results indicate that the population dynamic of the Tatra chamois is determined in the long term by weather conditions, mainly by temperature, when kids are birthing and growing. The results of this work highlight that climatic changes may be responsible for the population dynamic of high-mountain species. Climate warming may lead to increase in duration of vegetation period in cold climatic zones, what may in turn have positive effect on herbivorous species, which relay upon food resources limited by low temperatures within vegetation period. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s00484-018-1619-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Phenology serves as a major indicator of ongoing climate change. Long-term phenological observations are critically important for tracking and communicating these changes. The phenological observation network across Germany is operated by the National Meteorological Service with a major contribution from volunteering activities. However, the number of observers has strongly decreased for the last decades, possibly resulting in increasing uncertainties when extracting reliable phenological information from map interpolation. We studied uncertainties in interpolated maps from decreasing phenological records, by comparing long-term trends based on grid-based interpolated and station-wise observed time series, as well as their correlations with temperature. Interpolated maps in spring were characterized by the largest spatial variabilities across Bavaria, Germany, with respective lowest interpolated uncertainties. Long-term phenological trends for both interpolations and observations exhibited mean advances of −0.2 to −0.3 days year−1 for spring and summer, while late autumn and winter showed a delay of around 0.1 days year−1. Throughout the year, temperature sensitivities were consistently stronger for interpolated time series than observations. Such a better representation of regional phenology by interpolation was equally supported by satellite-derived phenological indices. Nevertheless, simulation of observer numbers indicated that a decline to less than 40% leads to a strong decrease in interpolation accuracy. To better understand the risk of declining phenological observations and to motivate volunteer observers, a Shiny app is proposed to visualize spatial and temporal phenological patterns across Bavaria and their links to climate change–induced temperature changes. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00484-021-02110-3.

Sometimes ignorance is an excuse. If an agent did not know and could not have known that her action would realize some bad outcome, then it is plausible to maintain that she is not to blame for realizing that outcome, even when the act that leads to this outcome is wrong. This general thought can be brought to bear in the context of climate change insofar as we think (a) that the actions of individual agents play some role in realizing climate harms and (b) that these actions are apt targets for being considered right or wrong. Are agents who are ignorant about climate change and the way their actions contribute to it excused because of their ignorance, or is their ignorance culpable? In this paper I examine these questions from the perspective of recent developments in the theories of responsibility for ignorant action and characterize their verdicts. After developing some objections to existing attempts to explore these questions, I characterize two influential theories of moral responsibility and discuss their implications for three different types of ignorance about climate change. I conclude with some recommendations for how we should react to the face of the theories’ conflicting verdicts. The answer to the question posed in the title, then, is: “Well, it’s complicated.”.

The precipitous spread of COVID-19 has created a conflict between human health and economic well-being. To contain the spread of its contagious effect, India imposed a stringent lockdown, and then the stringency was relaxed to some extent in its succeeding phases. We measure social benefits of the lockdown in terms of improved air quality in Indian cities by quantifying the effects with city-specific slope coefficients. We find that the containment measures have resulted in improvement in air quality, but it is not uniform across cities and across pollutants. The level of PM2.5 decreases from about 6 to 25% in many cities. Moreover, we observe that partial relaxations do not help in resuming economic and social activities. It should also be noted that counter-virus measures could not bring levels of the emissions to WHO standards; it highlights the importance of role of green production and consumption activities.

Atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is increasing at an unprecedented rate and subsequently leading to ocean acidification. Concomitantly, ocean warming is intensifying, leading to serious and predictable biological impairments over marine biota. Reef-building corals have proven to be very vulnerable to climate change, but little is known about the resilience of non-reef-building species. In this study, we investigated the effects of ocean warming and acidification on the antioxidant enzyme activity (CAT—catalase, and GST—glutathione S-transferase), lipid peroxidation (using malondialdehyde, MDA—levels as a biomarker) and heat shock response (HSP70/HSC70 content) of the octocoral Veretillum cynomorium. After 60 days of acclimation, no mortalities were registered in all treatments. Moreover, CAT and GST activities, as well as MDA levels, did not change significantly under warming and/or acidification. Heat shock response was significantly enhanced under warming, but high CO(2) did not have a significant effect. Contrasting to many of their tropical coral-reef relatives, our findings suggest that temperate shallow-living octocorals may be able to physiologically withstand future conditions of increased temperature and acidification. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s12192-018-0919-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Variation in ambient temperature affects various life stages of organisms. It has been suggested that climate change not only implies higher global temperatures but also more unpredictable weather and more frequent extreme weather events. Temperature has a major influence on the optimal laying-incubation-hatching dates of insectivorous passerines, because it poses energetic constraints and affects the timing of food abundance. We have been studying breeding characteristics of great tits Parus major and blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus in two areas, an urban parkland and a deciduous forest, around the city of Łódź since 2002. During the egg-laying period in 2017, both tit species at both study areas faced an unusual cold spell as reflected by a sudden decrease in the mean ambient temperature to ca. 2–3 °C for about 5 days, which caused mean hatching delays of up to 6 days. Since flexibility of behavior plays a major role in adjusting to unpredictable weather conditions, examining its limits may be an important goal for future research.

In 1942 Robert K. Merton tried to demonstrate the structure of the normative system of science by specifying the norms that characterized it. The norms were assigned the abbreviation CUDOs: Communism, Universalism, Disinterestedness, and Organized skepticism. Using the results of an on-line survey of climate scientists concerning the norms of science, this paper explores the climate scientists’ subscription to these norms. The data suggests that while Merton’s CUDOs remain the overall guiding moral principles, they are not fully endorsed or present in the conduct of climate scientists: there is a tendency to withhold results until publication, there is the intention of maintaining property rights, there is external influence defining research and the tendency to assign the significance of authored work according to the status of the author rather than content of the paper. These are contrary to the norms of science as proposed by Robert K. Merton.

The distributions of many species are not at equilibrium with their environment. This includes spreading non-native species and species undergoing range shifts in response to climate change. The habitat associations of these species may change during range expansion as less favourable climatic conditions at expanding range margins constrain species to use only the most favourable habitats, violating the species distribution model assumption of stationarity. Alternatively, changes in habitat associations could result from density-dependent habitat selection; at range margins, population densities are initially low so species can exhibit density-independent selection of the most favourable habitats, while in the range core, where population densities are higher, species spread into less favourable habitat. We investigate if the habitat preferences of the non-native common waxbill Estrilda astrild changed as they spread in three directions (north, east and south-east) in the Iberian Peninsula. There are different degrees of climatic suitability and colonization speed across range expansion axes, allowing us to separate the effects of climate from residence time. In contrast to previous studies we find a stronger effect of residence time than climate in influencing the prevalence of common waxbills. As well as a strong additive effect of residence time, there were some changes in habitat associations, which were consistent with density-dependent habitat selection. The combination of broader habitat associations and higher prevalence in areas that have been colonised for longer means that species distribution models constructed early in the invasion process are likely to underestimate species’ potential distribution. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10530-017-1616-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Increased winter survival by reducing energy expenditure in adult animals is often viewed as the primary function of torpor. However, torpor has many other functions that ultimately increase the survival of heterothermic mammals and birds. In this review, we summarize new findings revealing that animals use torpor to cope with the conditions during and after natural disasters, including fires, storms, and heat waves. Furthermore, we suggest that torpor, which also prolongs longevity and was likely crucial for survival of mammals during the time of the dinosaur extinctions, will be advantageous in a changing world. Climate change is assumed to lead to an increase in the occurrence and intensity of climatic disasters, such as those listed above and also abnormal floods, droughts, and extreme temperatures. The opportunistic use of torpor, found in many heterothermic species, will likely enhance survival of these challenges, because these species can reduce energy and foraging requirements. However, many strictly seasonal hibernators will likely face the negative consequences of the predicted increase in temperature, such as range contraction. Overall, available data suggest that opportunistic heterotherms with their flexible energy requirements have an adaptive advantage over homeotherms in response to unpredictable conditions.

Urbanisation is one of the major drivers of ecosystem change and includes increased temperatures in cities leading to an urban heat island (UHI). This study quantified the phenological response of odonates across London, UK, from 1990 to 2012, using a database of 1,031,277 historical sightings. The ordinal flight dates of each species were used to calculate the leading edge, middle and trailing edge of the flight period (P5, P50 and P95, respectively). The results suggest that the phenology of odonates is affected by the UHI only at a community level: no significant changes in the P5 or P50 of the flight period were found, although the P95 shows a mean advance of 4.13 days compared to rural areas, thus suggesting a contraction of the flight period in urban areas. However, only one individual species (Sympetrum striolatum) exhibited an advance in the P95 of the flight period in urban areas compared to rural areas. On the other hand, climate change (minimum temperature) had a much stronger impact on the phenology of odonates at the community level with a significant advance of 6.9 days °C−1 in the P5 of the flight period, 3.1 days °C−1 in the P50 and 3.3 days °C−1 in the P95 flight date. Similarly, a significant advance in P5 was found in 7 of the 15 species tested in response to minimum temperature, and 2 species showed a significant advance in P50 in response to minimum temperature, but no species showed a shift in the P95 flight date due to minimum temperature. As shown in previous studies, life history influences the phenological response of odonates, with spring species and those species lacking an egg diapause being the most responsive to increased temperatures, although summer species and species with obligate egg diapause also respond to the UHI by advancing the P95 by 3.8 and 4.5 days, respectively, compared to rural areas, thus contracting the flight period. The present study shows that the UHI has negligible impacts on emergence patterns of odonates compared to climate change, which may result from the capacity of aquatic habitats to buffer the microclimatic conditions of the surrounding terrestrial habitats. We conclude by highlighting the importance of climate change on freshwater habitats over the impacts of the UHI. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00484-017-1311-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

There is growing concern about declines in pollinator species, and more recently reservations have been expressed about mismatch in plant-pollinator synchrony as a consequence of phenological change caused by rising temperatures. Long-term changes in honeybee Apis mellifera phenology may have major consequences for agriculture, especially the pollinator market, as well as for honey production. To date, these aspects have received only modest attention. In the current study, we examine honeybee and beekeeping activity in southern Poland for the period 1965-2010, supplemented by hive yields from a beekeeper in southern UK in the same period. We show that despite negative reports on honeybee condition, and documented climate change, the studied apiary managed to show a marked increase in honey production over the 46 year study period, as did that from the UK. The proportion of the annual yield originating from the first harvest decreased during the study period and was associated with rising temperatures in summer. Honeybee spring phenology showed strong negative relationships with temperature but no overall change through time because temperatures of key early spring months had not increased significantly. In contrast, increasing yields and an increased number of harvests (and hence a later final harvest and longer season) were detected and were related to rising temperatures in late spring and in summer.

Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington.

An observed increase in air temperature can lead to significant changes in the phenology of plants and, consequently, changes in agricultural production. The aim of the study was to evaluate the spatial differentiation of thermal resources in Poland and their variability during a period of changing thermal conditions in Europe. Since the variability of thermal conditions is of paramount importance for perennial crops, the study focused on apple, plum, and cherry orchard regions in Poland. The analysis was conducted for the period of 1951–2010 using air temperature daily data. Thermal resources have been defined using the growing degree days (GDD) index calculated independently for the whole year and during in frost-free season for three air temperature thresholds: 0, 5, and 10 °C, which determine the non-winter period, growing season, and the period of full plant growth, respectively. In addition, due to the high significance for perennials in particular, the incidence and intensity of frost during flowering were calculated. In this study, a detailed analysis of the spatial differentiation of thermal resources was first performed, followed by an evaluation of long-term variability and associated change patterns. The obtained results confirmed an increase in thermal resources in Poland as a consequence of the lengthening of the growing season. However, the frequency and intensity of spring frost, especially during flowering or even during ripening of plants, remain a threat to harvests in both the eastern and western parts of the country.

Context Growing evidence suggests that climate change could substantially alter forest disturbances. Interactions between individual disturbance agents are a major component of disturbance regimes, yet how interactions contribute to their climate sensitivity remains largely unknown. Objectives Here, our aim was to assess the climate sensitivity of disturbance interactions, focusing on wind and bark beetle disturbances. Methods We developed a process-based model of bark beetle disturbance, integrated into the dynamic forest landscape model iLand (already including a detailed model of wind disturbance). We evaluated the integrated model against observations from three wind events and a subsequent bark beetle outbreak, affecting 530.2 ha (3.8 %) of a mountain forest landscape in Austria between 2007 and 2014. Subsequently, we conducted a factorial experiment determining the effect of changes in climate variables on the area disturbed by wind and bark beetles separately and in combination. Results iLand was well able to reproduce observations with regard to area, temporal sequence, and spatial pattern of disturbance. The observed disturbance dynamics was strongly driven by interactions, with 64.3 % of the area disturbed attributed to interaction effects. A +4 °C warming increased the disturbed area by +264.7 % and the area-weighted mean patch size by +1794.3 %. Interactions were found to have a ten times higher sensitivity to temperature changes than main effects, considerably amplifying the climate sensitivity of the disturbance regime. Conclusions Disturbance interactions are a key component of the forest disturbance regime. Neglecting interaction effects can lead to a substantial underestimation of the climate change sensitivity of disturbance regimes. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10980-016-0396-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The most recent IPCC report presented further scientific evidence for global climate change in the twenty-first century. Important secondary effects of climate change include those on water resource availability, agricultural yields, urban healthy living, biodiversity, ecosystems, food security, and public health. The aim of this explorative study was to determine the range of expected airborne pathogen concentrations during a single outbreak or release in a future climate compared to a historical climatic period (1981-2010). We used five climate scenarios for the periods 2016-2045 and 2036-2065 defined by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and two conversion tools to create hourly future meteorological data sets. We modelled season-averaged airborne pathogen concentrations by means of an atmospheric dispersion model and compared these data to historical (1981-2010) modelled concentrations. Our results showed that modelled concentrations were modified several percentage points on average as a result of climate change. On average, concentrations were reduced in four out of five scenarios. Wind speed and global radiation were of critical importance, which determine horizontal and vertical dilution. Modelled concentrations decreased on average, but large positive and negative hourly averaged effects were calculated (from -67 to +639 %). This explorative study shows that further research should include pathogen inactivation and more detailed probability functions on precipitation, snow, and large-scale circulation.