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The 30 October 2020 Samos earthquake (Mw 7.0) ruptured an east–west striking, north dipping normal fault located offshore the northern coast of Samos Island, previously inferred from the bathymetry and regional tectonics. This fault, reported in the fault-databases as the North Samos and/or Kaystrios Fault, ruptured with almost pure dip-slip motion, in a region where both active extension and strike-slip deformation coexist. Historical information for the area confirms that similar ~ Mw7 events had also occurred in the broader Samos area, though none of the recent (last ~ 300 years) mainshocks appears to have ruptured the same fault. The spatial and temporal distribution of relocated aftershocks indicates triggering of nearby strike-slip and normal fault segments, situated in the areas where static stress has increased due to the mainshock generation. The relocated aftershocks and the slip model indicate that the sequence ruptured the upper crust (mainly the depth range 3–15 km). The top of the rupture plane nearly reached the sea bottom, located at a depth of

Increasing penetration levels of renewables have transformed how power systems are operated. High levels of uncertainty in production make it increasingly difficulty to guarantee operational feasibility; instead, constraints may only be satisfied with high probability. We present a chance-constrained economic dispatch model that efficiently integrates energy storage and high renewable penetration to satisfy renewable portfolio requirements. Specifically, we require that wind energy contribute at least a prespecified proportion of the total demand and that the scheduled wind energy is deliverable with high probability. We develop an approximate partial sample average approximation (PSAA) framework to enable efficient solution of large-scale chance-constrained economic dispatch problems. Computational experiments on the IEEE-24 bus system show that the proposed PSAA approach is more accurate, closer to the prescribed satisfaction tolerance, and approximately 100 times faster than standard sample average approximation. Finally, the improved efficiency of our PSAA approach enables solution of a larger WECC-240 test system in minutes.

Background The efficient biological production of industrially and economically important compounds is a challenging problem. Brute-force determination of the optimal pathways to efficient production of a target chemical in a chassis organism is computationally intractable. Many current methods provide a single solution to this problem, but fail to provide all optimal pathways, optional sub-optimal solutions or hybrid biological/non-biological solutions. Results Here we present RetSynth, software with a novel algorithm for determining all optimal biological pathways given a starting biological chassis and target chemical. By dynamically selecting constraints, the number of potential pathways scales by the number of fully independent pathways and not by the number of overall reactions or size of the metabolic network. This feature allows all optimal pathways to be determined for a large number of chemicals and for a large corpus of potential chassis organisms. Additionally, this software contains other features including the ability to collect data from metabolic repositories, perform flux balance analysis, and to view optimal pathways identified by our algorithm using a built-in visualization module. This software also identifies sub-optimal pathways and allows incorporation of non-biological chemical reactions, which may be performed after metabolic production of precursor molecules. Conclusions The novel algorithm designed for RetSynth streamlines an arduous and complex process in metabolic engineering. Our stand-alone software allows the identification of candidate optimal and additional sub-optimal pathways, and provides the user with necessary ranking criteria such as target yield to decide which route to select for target production. Furthermore, the ability to incorporate non-biological reactions into the final steps allows determination of pathways to production for targets that cannot be solely produced biologically. With this comprehensive suite of features RetSynth exceeds any open-source software or webservice currently available for identifying optimal pathways for target production.

A novel approach is developed for estimating the near-surface attenuation using seismic noise recordings at a downhole array. The amplitude spectrum of the traffic-induced seismic noise at the engineering bedrock level exhibits a high-frequency decay between 10 and 40 Hz. Subsequently, it yields a Kappa value of 14 ± 3 ms and a quality factor of 45 ± 10 for the profile between the highway and the sensor. Likewise, using the earthquake recordings made at the surface and the engineering bedrock levels, the Kappa values are calculated as 60 and 45 ms, respectively. The difference was attributed to near-surface attenuation where the upgoing earthquake waves and the downgoing traffic-induced seismic waves traverse similar soil profiles resulting in similar Kappa values. Hence, the near-site geology attenuation properties can be derived using the seismic noise data induced by a known source at a close distance recorded at engineering bedrock level.

We consider the problem of minimizing costs in the generation unit commitment problem, a cornerstone in electric power system operations, while enforcing an N-k-e reliability criterion. This reliability criterion is a generalization of the well-known $N$-$k$ criterion, and dictates that at least $(1-e_ j)$ fraction of the total system demand must be met following the failures of $k$ or fewer system components. We refer to this problem as the Contingency-Constrained Unit Commitment problem, or CCUC. We present a mixed-integer programming formulation of the CCUC that accounts for both transmission and generation element failures. We propose novel cutting plane algorithms that avoid the need to explicitly consider an exponential number of contingencies. Computational studies are performed on several IEEE test systems and a simplified model of the Western US interconnection network, which demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods relative to current state-of-the-art.

We analyzed the waveforms of the small- to moderate-sized earthquakes that took place in the northern part of the inner Isparta Angle (IA) to retrieve their source parameters and combine these results with the focal mechanism solutions of the larger events that occurred in 2007 in Egirdir Lake at the apex of IA. In total, source mechanisms of 20 earthquakes within the magnitude range 3.5

The main motivation for this study was the impending occurrence of a catastrophic earthquake along the Prince Island Fault (PIF) in the Marmara Sea and the disaster risk around the Marmara region, especially in Istanbul. This study provides the results of a physically based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methodology, using broadband strong ground motion simulations, for sites within the Marmara region, Turkey, that may be vulnerable to possible large earthquakes throughout the PIF segments in the Marmara Sea. The methodology is called physically based because it depends on the physical processes of earthquake rupture and wave propagation to simulate earthquake ground motion time histories. We included the effects of all considerable-magnitude earthquakes. To generate the high-frequency (0.5-20 Hz) part of the broadband earthquake simulation, real, small-magnitude earthquakes recorded by a local seismic array were used as empirical Green's functions. For the frequencies below 0.5 Hz, the simulations were obtained by using synthetic Green's functions, which are synthetic seismograms calculated by an explicit 2D/3D elastic finite difference wave propagation routine. By using a range of rupture scenarios for all considerable-magnitude earthquakes throughout the PIF segments, we produced a hazard calculation for frequencies of 0.1-20 Hz. The physically based PSHA used here followed the same procedure as conventional PSHA, except that conventional PSHA utilizes point sources or a series of point sources to represent earthquakes, and this approach utilizes the full rupture of earthquakes along faults. Furthermore, conventional PSHA predicts ground motion parameters by using empirical attenuation relationships, whereas this approach calculates synthetic seismograms for all magnitudes of earthquakes to obtain ground motion parameters. PSHA results were produced for 2, 10, and 50 % hazards for all sites studied in the Marmara region.

Frequency distribution of azimuth and plunges of P- and T-axes of focal mechanisms is compared with the orientation of maximum compressive stress axis for investigating the frictional strength of three fault segments of North Anatolian fault (NAF) in eastern Marmara Sea, namely Princes’ Islands, Yalova–Cinarcik and Yalova–Hersek fault segments. In this frame, we retrieved 25 CMT solutions of events in Cinarcik basin and derived a local stress tensor incorporating 30 focal mechanisms determined by other researches. As for the Yalova–Cinarcik and Yalova–Hersek fault segments, we constructed the frequency distribution of P- and T-axes utilizing 111 and 68 events, respectively, to correlate the geometry of the principle stress axes and fault orientations. The analysis yields low frictional strength for the Princes’ Island fault segments and high frictional strength for Yalova–Cinarcik, Yalova–Hersek segments. The local stress tensor derived from the inversion of P- and T-axes of the fault plane solutions of Cinarcik basin events portrays nearly horizontal maximum compressive stress axis oriented N154E which is almost parallel to the peak of the frequency distribution of the azimuth of the P-axes. The fitting of the observed and calculated frequency distributions is attained for a low frictional coefficient which is about μ ≈ 0.1. Evidences on the weakness of NAF segments in eastern Marmara Sea region are revealed by other geophysical observations. Our results also show that the local stress field in Cinarcik basin is rotated ≈30° clockwise compared to the regional stress tensor in Marmara region derived from the large earthquakes, whereas the local stress tensor in Yalova–Cinarcik area is found to be rotated ≈30° counterclockwise. The rotation of the two local stress fields is derived in the area where NAF bifurcates into two branches overlaying large electrical conductor.

During two distinct earthquakes occurred on March 7, 1867 and October 6, 1944, tsunami waves were also observed at some localities around the Gulf of Edremit, NE Aegean Sea. The first event (M w = 6.8) mostly affected the city of Mitilini of Lesvos Island while the Gulf of Edremit-Ayvacik earthquake (M S = 6.8) largely affected the northern and eastern coastal areas of the Gulf of Edremit. In 1944 earthquake, numerous surface cracks and water gushes were reported. The coastal neighborhoods of the town of Ayvalik in the east were flooded by tsunami waves. At the WSW extend of the main fault observed on land, which is parallel to the present-day slip vectors, some normal-oblique faults were observed close and subparallel to the northern coast. On the basis of historical documents, reports, interviews, geological setting, field observations and marine seismic reflection data, the 1944 earthquake was not triggered by one of the main fault segments but by a secondary fault or fault group which was described in this study. Depending on the distribution of tensional and compressional forces in the region, which rotates clockwise under the control of the middle strand of the North Anatolian fault, secondary fault groups become important. The moment tensor parameters of such small-size events have been determined and have obtained consistent results with the faults proposed in this study.

We have investigated the spatial variation of the stress field along the fault rupture zone of the 1999 Izmit earthquake (Mw 7.4) using first-motion polarity data at seven distinct aftershock clusters. In our approach, the first-motion polarities of all the aftershocks in a cluster are simultaneously inverted to determine the stress tensor parameters and fault plane solutions of individual events, in accordance with the method of Horiuchi et al. (1995). Where post-seismic slip was significant (e.g., Sapanca, Sakarya-Akyazi, and Karadere segments), we obtained stress tensors with the fault parallel or fault normal maximum (σ1) and minimum (σ3) principal compressive stress axes, which may imply either low frictional coefficients or fault weakness. A stress tensor with similar features was derived from the Cinarcik cluster, where the aftershocks lie in a low-velocity zone beneath the geothermal area. The maximum principal stress axis tends to remain parallel to the trend of the pre-mainshock σ1 around the Yalova segment; this segment experienced little to no co-seismic displacements. The stress tensor around the Golcuk segment, where the largest surface displacement of 5.5 m was observed, was determined to be 20–25° counterclockwise rotated, but the aftershock alignment remained fault parallel. We interpret these results in terms of the strong crust. On the other hand, both the aftershock alignment and the stress tensor were found to be rotated in the Izmit earthquake epicentral region despite the lower co-seismic displacements. We attribute this feature to the weak crust.

The Upper Quaternary seismic stratigraphy and active faults of the Gulf of Izmit were investigated by means of high-resolution shallow seismic profiling data in the source region of 1999 Izmit earthquake. High-resolution seismic reflection data correlated with borehole data indicate that the stratigraphy of Izmit Bay consists of three distinct depositional sequences formed in response to middle Pleistocene-Holocene sea-level changes. Reflector R, separating the pre-Holocene sequences (1 and 2) from the Holocene sequence (3), represents an erosional unconformity produced by the subaerial fluvial erosion of the continental shelves at the time of the last glacial maximum. Occasional, anomalous reflections (acoustic turbidity) observed within the Holocene sequence are interpreted as gas accumulations. The maximum thickness of the Holocene sediments is found to be about 25 m. The isopach map of Holocene sediment implies that the thickness of the Holocene decreases from the east towards the central and western basins of Izmit Bay. Two distinct fault systems are interpreted in Izmit Bay. The main fault system extending roughly in an E-W direction along the Gulf of Izmit is an active right lateral strike slip fault with a normal component. The secondary faults are normal faults striking in different directions and these are identified as being both active and inactive. In addition, prominent compressive features are identified in the seismic cross-sections of some profiles acquired to the east of Hersek Peninsula where the focal mechanisms of the aftershocks of the 1999 Izmit earthquake also reveal predominantly reverse faulting mechanisms, as identified by a local dense seismic network.

The faults’ geometry and their seismic activity beneath the Marmara Sea have been under debate for a couple of decades. We used data recorded by three ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs) over a period of 3 months in 2014 to investigate the relationship of fault geometry to microseismicity under the western Marmara Sea in Turkey. We detected a seismic swarm at 13 to 20 km depth beneath the main Marmara fault (MMF), and the maximum depth of seismogenic zone was 25 km within the OBS observation area. These results provided evidence that the dip of the MMF is almost vertical and that the seismogenic zone in this region extends into the lower crust. Our analysis of past seismicity indicated that the seismic swarm we recorded is the most recent of an episodic series of seismic activity with an average recurrence interval of 2–3 years. The repetitive seismicity indicates that the MMF beneath the western Marmara Sea is coupled and that some of the accumulated strain is released every 2 to 3 years. Our study shows that OBS data can provide useful information about seismicity along the MMF, but more extensive studies using more OBSs deployed over a wider area are needed to fully understand the fault geometry and stick–slip behavior of faults under the Marmara Sea.

The devastating Izmit and Duzce earthquakes were followed by theOrta intra-plate earthquake (MS = 6.1) occurred in the central Anatolianblock on June 6, 2000. The focal mechanism, aftershock distribution andthe field studies (Emre et al., 2000) suggest a movement on a 21-km longDodurga fault striking nearly N-S where the sense of motion is left-lateralstrike-slip with considerable amount of normal component. We applied theconstrained linear finite-fault inversion method of Hartzell and Heaton(1983) to the teleseismic P and SH waveforms to derive a coseismic slipdistribution model for the earthquake. Time windows approach is appliedallowing variable rise times and rupture velocities. The source-rise timefunction is discretized into consecutive time intervals that stand for slipcontribution of individual subfaults. Although no clear surface ruptureswere associated with the earthquake, the resulting slip model suggestscoseismic slip in the order of several tens of centimetres. Our coseismicslip distribution model identifies two slip patches with the followingmaximum slip values: (1) the larger one (42 cm) is located to the southof the hypocenter at depth range of 4–8 km and (2) the smaller one(31 cm) is located just above and north of the hypocenter. Theslip-model yield a seismic moment of 1.0 × 1018 Nm, most of whichis released from the rupture over the depth of 8 km.