Miquel Oliu-Barton, Bary S. R. Pradelski, Nicolas Woloszko, Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud, Philippe Aghion, Patrick Artus, Arnaud Fontanet, Philippe Martin, Guntram B. Wolff, CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision (CEREMADE), Université Paris Dauphine-PSL, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CNRS-périodiques (CP), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OCDE), Auteur indépendant, Institut Européen d'administration des Affaires (INSEAD), Collège de France - Chaire Economie des institutions, de l'innovation et de la croissance, Collège de France (CdF (institution)), Paris School of Economics (PSE), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques (PJSE), Natixis, Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP), Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM), Pasteur-Cnam Risques infectieux et émergents (PACRI), Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Département d'économie (Sciences Po) (ECON), Sciences Po (Sciences Po)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), CEPR, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management [Brussels] (ULB), Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), This work has been partially supported by Bruegel, French National Research Agency (ANR) through grant ANR-19-CE48-0018-01, and University Paris Dauphine - PSL. All errors are ours., and ANR-19-CE48-0018,ALIAS,Apprentissage adaptatif multi-agent(2019)
In the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have, among other measures,1,2 mandated the use of COVID certificates to prove vaccination, recovery, or a recent negative test, and have required them to access shops, restaurants, schools, universities, or workplaces.3 While arguments for and against COVID certificates have focused on reducing transmission and ethical concerns,4,5 the incentive effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes, and the economy has not yet been investigated. To estimate this effect, we construct counterfactuals based on innovation diffusion theory6 for France, Germany, and Italy. We estimate that the announcement of COVID certificates during summer 2021 led to increased vaccine uptake in France of 13.0 (95% CI 9.7–14.9) percentage points (p.p.) of the total population up to the end of the year, in Germany 6.2 (2.6–6.9) p.p., and in Italy 9.7 (5.4–12.3) p.p. Further, this averted an additional 3,979 (3,453–4,298) deaths in France, 1,133 (-312–1,358) in Germany, and 1,331 (502–1,794) in Italy; and prevented gross domestic product (GDP) losses of €6.0 (5.9–6.1) billion in France, €1.4 (1.3–1.5) billion in Germany, and €2.1 (2.0–2.2) billion in Italy. Notably, the application of COVID certificates substantially reduced the pressure on intensive care units (ICUs) and, in France, averted occupancy levels being exceeded where prior lockdowns were instated. Varying government communication efforts and restrictions associated with COVID certificates may explain country differences, such as the smaller effect in Germany. Overall, our findings are more sizeable than predicted.7 This analysis may help inform decisions about when and how to employ COVID certificates to increase vaccine uptake and thus avoid stringent interventions, such as closures, curfews, and lockdowns, with major social and economic consequences.