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2. Impact of antigen test target failure and testing strategies on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 variants

Author

Del Vecchio, Claudia, primary, Cracknell Daniels, Bethan, additional, Brancaccio, Giuseppina, additional, Brazzale, Alessandra Rosalba, additional, Lavezzo, Enrico, additional, Ciavarella, Constanze, additional, Onelia, Francesco, additional, Franchin, Elisa, additional, Manuto, Laura, additional, Bianca, Federico, additional, Cianci, Vito, additional, Cattelan, Anna Maria, additional, Dorigatti, Ilaria, additional, Toppo, Stefano, additional, and Crisanti, Andrea, additional

Published
2022
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3. Neutralising reactivity against SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants by vaccination and infection history

Author

Lavezzo, Enrico, primary, Pacenti, Monia, additional, Manuto, Laura, additional, Boldrin, Caterina, additional, Cattai, Margherita, additional, Grazioli, Marco, additional, Bianca, Federico, additional, Sartori, Margherita, additional, Caldart, Federico, additional, Castelli, Gioele, additional, Nicoletti, Michele, additional, Nieddu, Eleonora, additional, Salvadoretti, Elisa, additional, Labella, Beatrice, additional, Fava, Ludovico, additional, Vanuzzo, Maria Cristina, additional, Lisi, Vittoria, additional, Antonello, Maria, additional, Grimaldi, Carmela Ileana, additional, Zulian, Chiara, additional, Del Vecchio, Claudia, additional, Plebani, Mario, additional, Padoan, Andrea, additional, Cirillo, Daniela Maria, additional, Brazzale, Alessandra R., additional, Tonon, Giovanni, additional, Toppo, Stefano, additional, Dorigatti, Ilaria, additional, and Crisanti, Andrea, additional

Published
2022
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4. Estimating the COVID-19 infection fatality ratio accounting for seroreversion using statistical modelling

Author

Brazeau, Nicholas F., primary, Verity, Robert, additional, Jenks, Sara, additional, Fu, Han, additional, Whittaker, Charles, additional, Winskill, Peter, additional, Dorigatti, Ilaria, additional, Walker, Patrick G. T., additional, Riley, Steven, additional, Schnekenberg, Ricardo P., additional, Hoeltgebaum, Henrique, additional, Mellan, Thomas A., additional, Mishra, Swapnil, additional, Unwin, H. Juliette T., additional, Watson, Oliver J., additional, Cucunubá, Zulma M., additional, Baguelin, Marc, additional, Whittles, Lilith, additional, Bhatt, Samir, additional, Ghani, Azra C., additional, Ferguson, Neil M., additional, and Okell, Lucy C., additional

Published
2022
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5. Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe

Author

Flaxman, Seth, Mishra, Swapnil, Gandy, Axel, Unwin, H. Juliette T., Mellan, Thomas A., Coupland, Helen, Whittaker, Charles, Zhu, Harrison, Berah, Tresnia, Eaton, Jeffrey W., Monod, Mélodie, Perez-Guzman, Pablo N., Schmit, Nora, Cilloni, Lucia, Ainslie, Kylie E. C., Baguelin, Marc, Boonyasiri, Adhiratha, Boyd, Olivia, Cattarino, Lorenzo, Cooper, Laura V., Cucunubá, Zulma, Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina, Dighe, Amy, Djaafara, Bimandra, Dorigatti, Ilaria, van Elsland, Sabine L., FitzJohn, Richard G., Gaythorpe, Katy A. M., Geidelberg, Lily, Grassly, Nicholas C., Green, William D., Hallett, Timothy, Hamlet, Arran, Hinsley, Wes, Jeffrey, Ben, Knock, Edward, Laydon, Daniel J., Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma, Nouvellet, Pierre, Parag, Kris V., Siveroni, Igor, Thompson, Hayley A., Verity, Robert, Volz, Erik, Walters, Caroline E., Wang, Haowei, Wang, Yuanrong, Watson, Oliver J., Winskill, Peter, Xi, Xiaoyue, Walker, Patrick G. T., Ghani, Azra C., Donnelly, Christl A., Riley, Steven, Vollmer, Michaela A. C., Ferguson, Neil M., Okell, Lucy C., Bhatt, Samir, Medical Research Council (MRC), and Wellcome Trust

Subjects
0301 basic medicine, medicine.medical_specialty, General Science & Technology, Population, Pooling, Psychological intervention, law.invention, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, law, Case fatality rate, Pandemic, Epidemiology, Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, Medicine, 030212 general & internal medicine, education, education.field_of_study, Science & Technology, Multidisciplinary, business.industry, Multidisciplinary Sciences, 030104 developmental biology, Transmission (mechanics), Science & Technology - Other Topics, business, Basic reproduction number, Demography
Abstract

Following the detection of the new coronavirus1 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In response, many European countries have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as the closure of schools and national lockdowns. Here we study the effect of major interventions across 11 European countries for the period from the start of the COVID-19 epidemics in February 2020 until 4 May 2020, when lockdowns started to be lifted. Our model calculates backwards from observed deaths to estimate transmission that occurred several weeks previously, allowing for the time lag between infection and death. We use partial pooling of information between countries, with both individual and shared effects on the time-varying reproduction number (Rt). Pooling allows for more information to be used, helps to overcome idiosyncrasies in the data and enables more-timely estimates. Our model relies on fixed estimates of some epidemiological parameters (such as the infection fatality rate), does not include importation or subnational variation and assumes that changes in Rt are an immediate response to interventions rather than gradual changes in behaviour. Amidst the ongoing pandemic, we rely on death data that are incomplete, show systematic biases in reporting and are subject to future consolidation. We estimate that-for all of the countries we consider here-current interventions have been sufficient to drive Rt below 1 (probability Rt

Published
2020
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6. Author Correction: SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics and transmission from community-wide serological testing in the Italian municipality of Vo’

Author

Dorigatti, Ilaria, primary, Lavezzo, Enrico, additional, Manuto, Laura, additional, Ciavarella, Constanze, additional, Pacenti, Monia, additional, Boldrin, Caterina, additional, Cattai, Margherita, additional, Saluzzo, Francesca, additional, Franchin, Elisa, additional, Del Vecchio, Claudia, additional, Caldart, Federico, additional, Castelli, Gioele, additional, Nicoletti, Michele, additional, Nieddu, Eleonora, additional, Salvadoretti, Elisa, additional, Labella, Beatrice, additional, Fava, Ludovico, additional, Guglielmo, Simone, additional, Fascina, Mariateresa, additional, Grazioli, Marco, additional, Alvisi, Gualtiero, additional, Vanuzzo, Maria Cristina, additional, Zupo, Tiziano, additional, Calandrin, Reginetta, additional, Lisi, Vittoria, additional, Rossi, Lucia, additional, Castagliuolo, Ignazio, additional, Merigliano, Stefano, additional, Unwin, H. Juliette T., additional, Plebani, Mario, additional, Padoan, Andrea, additional, Brazzale, Alessandra R., additional, Toppo, Stefano, additional, Ferguson, Neil M., additional, Donnelly, Christl A., additional, and Crisanti, Andrea, additional

Published
2021
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7. SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics and transmission from community-wide serological testing in the Italian municipality of Vo’

Author

Dorigatti, Ilaria, primary, Lavezzo, Enrico, additional, Manuto, Laura, additional, Ciavarella, Constanze, additional, Pacenti, Monia, additional, Boldrin, Caterina, additional, Cattai, Margherita, additional, Saluzzo, Francesca, additional, Franchin, Elisa, additional, Del Vecchio, Claudia, additional, Caldart, Federico, additional, Castelli, Gioele, additional, Nicoletti, Michele, additional, Nieddu, Eleonora, additional, Salvadoretti, Elisa, additional, Labella, Beatrice, additional, Fava, Ludovico, additional, Guglielmo, Simone, additional, Fascina, Mariateresa, additional, Grazioli, Marco, additional, Alvisi, Gualtiero, additional, Vanuzzo, Maria Cristina, additional, Zupo, Tiziano, additional, Calandrin, Reginetta, additional, Lisi, Vittoria, additional, Rossi, Lucia, additional, Castagliuolo, Ignazio, additional, Merigliano, Stefano, additional, Unwin, H. Juliette T., additional, Plebani, Mario, additional, Padoan, Andrea, additional, Brazzale, Alessandra R., additional, Toppo, Stefano, additional, Ferguson, Neil M., additional, Donnelly, Christl A., additional, and Crisanti, Andrea, additional

Published
2021
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8. Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Vo’

Author

Lavezzo, Enrico, Franchin, Elisa, Ciavarella, Constanze, Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina, Barzon, Luisa, Del Vecchio, Claudia, Rossi, Lucia, Manganelli, Riccardo, Loregian, Arianna, Navarin, Nicolò, Abate, Davide, Sciro, Manuela, Merigliano, Stefano, De Canale, Ettore, Vanuzzo, Maria Cristina, Besutti, Valeria, Saluzzo, Francesca, Onelia, Francesco, Pacenti, Monia, Parisi, Saverio G., Carretta, Giovanni, Donato, Daniele, Flor, Luciano, Cocchio, Silvia, Masi, Giulia, Sperduti, Alessandro, Cattarino, Lorenzo, Salvador, Renato, Nicoletti, Michele, Caldart, Federico, Castelli, Gioele, Nieddu, Eleonora, Labella, Beatrice, Fava, Ludovico, Drigo, Matteo, Gaythorpe, Katy A. M., Brazzale, Alessandra R., Toppo, Stefano, Trevisan, Marta, Baldo, Vincenzo, Donnelly, Christl A., Ferguson, Neil M., Dorigatti, Ilaria, Crisanti, Andrea, Ainslie, Kylie E. C., Baguelin, Marc, Bhatt, Samir, Boonyasiri, Adhiratha, Boyd, Olivia, Coupland, Helen L., Cucunubá, Zulma, Djafaara, Bimandra A., van Elsland, Sabine L., FitzJohn, Rich, Flaxman, Seth, Green, Will D., Hallett, Timothy, Hamlet, Arran, Haw, David, Imai, Natsuko, Jeffrey, Benjamin, Knock, Edward, Laydon, Daniel J., Mellan, Thomas, Mishra, Swapnil, Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma, Nouvellet, Pierre, Okell, Lucy C., Parag, Kris V., Riley, Steven, Thompson, Hayley A., Unwin, H. Juliette T., Verity, Robert, Vollmer, Michaela A. C., Walker, Patrick G. T., Walters, Caroline E., Wang, Haowei, Wang, Yuanrong, Watson, Oliver J., Whittaker, Charles, Whittles, Lilith K., Xi, Xiaoyue, Medical Research Council (MRC), Medical Research Council, The Royal Society, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust- BRC Funding, The Academy of Medical Sciences, National Institute for Health Research, UK Research and Innovation, and Wellcome Trust

Subjects
0301 basic medicine, Male, CORONAVIRUS, Viral Nonstructural Proteins, medicine.disease_cause, Disease Outbreaks, 0302 clinical medicine, Viral Envelope Proteins, Prevalence, 030212 general & internal medicine, Child, Asymptomatic Infections, Coronavirus, Aged, 80 and over, education.field_of_study, Coronavirus RNA-Dependent RNA Polymerase, Multidisciplinary, Middle Aged, Viral Load, 3. Good health, Multidisciplinary Sciences, Policy, Italy, Child, Preschool, Science & Technology - Other Topics, Female, medicine.symptom, Coronavirus Infections, Viral load, Serial interval, Adult, medicine.medical_specialty, Adolescent, General Science & Technology, Population, Pneumonia, Viral, Policy and public health in microbiology, Asymptomatic, 03 medical and health sciences, Betacoronavirus, Coronavirus Envelope Proteins, Young Adult, Internal medicine, medicine, Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, Humans, Author Correction, education, Pandemics, Aged, Science & Technology, business.industry, SARS-CoV-2, Infant, Newborn, Outbreak, COVID-19, Infant, medicine.disease, RNA-Dependent RNA Polymerase, Confidence interval, Pneumonia, 030104 developmental biology, business
Abstract

On 21 February 2020, a resident of the municipality of Vo', a small town near Padua (Italy), died of pneumonia due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection1. This was the first coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19)-related death detected in Italy since the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei province2. In response, the regional authorities imposed the lockdown of the whole municipality for 14 days3. Here we collected information on the demography, clinical presentation, hospitalization, contact network and the presence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in nasopharyngeal swabs for 85.9% and 71.5% of the population of Vo' at two consecutive time points. From the first survey, which was conducted around the time the town lockdown started, we found a prevalence of infection of 2.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1-3.3%). From the second survey, which was conducted at the end of the lockdown, we found a prevalence of 1.2% (95% CI: 0.8-1.8%). Notably, 42.5% (95% CI: 31.5-54.6%) of the confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections detected across the two surveys were asymptomatic (that is, did not have symptoms at the time of swab testing and did not develop symptoms afterwards). The mean serial interval was 7.2 days (95% CI: 5.9-9.6). We found no statistically significant difference in the viral load of symptomatic versus asymptomatic infections (P = 0.62 and 0.74 for E and RdRp genes, respectively, exact Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test). This study sheds light on the frequency of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, their infectivity (as measured by the viral load) and provides insights into its transmission dynamics and the efficacy of the implemented control measures.

Published
2020
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9. Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission

Author

Nouvellet, Pierre, primary, Bhatia, Sangeeta, additional, Cori, Anne, additional, Ainslie, Kylie E. C., additional, Baguelin, Marc, additional, Bhatt, Samir, additional, Boonyasiri, Adhiratha, additional, Brazeau, Nicholas F., additional, Cattarino, Lorenzo, additional, Cooper, Laura V., additional, Coupland, Helen, additional, Cucunuba, Zulma M., additional, Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina, additional, Dighe, Amy, additional, Djaafara, Bimandra A., additional, Dorigatti, Ilaria, additional, Eales, Oliver D., additional, van Elsland, Sabine L., additional, Nascimento, Fabricia F., additional, FitzJohn, Richard G., additional, Gaythorpe, Katy A. M., additional, Geidelberg, Lily, additional, Green, William D., additional, Hamlet, Arran, additional, Hauck, Katharina, additional, Hinsley, Wes, additional, Imai, Natsuko, additional, Jeffrey, Benjamin, additional, Knock, Edward, additional, Laydon, Daniel J., additional, Lees, John A., additional, Mangal, Tara, additional, Mellan, Thomas A., additional, Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma, additional, Parag, Kris V., additional, Pons-Salort, Margarita, additional, Ragonnet-Cronin, Manon, additional, Riley, Steven, additional, Unwin, H. Juliette T., additional, Verity, Robert, additional, Vollmer, Michaela A. C., additional, Volz, Erik, additional, Walker, Patrick G. T., additional, Walters, Caroline E., additional, Wang, Haowei, additional, Watson, Oliver J., additional, Whittaker, Charles, additional, Whittles, Lilith K., additional, Xi, Xiaoyue, additional, Ferguson, Neil M., additional, and Donnelly, Christl A., additional

Published
2021
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10. State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States

Author

Unwin, H. Juliette T., primary, Mishra, Swapnil, additional, Bradley, Valerie C., additional, Gandy, Axel, additional, Mellan, Thomas A., additional, Coupland, Helen, additional, Ish-Horowicz, Jonathan, additional, Vollmer, Michaela A. C., additional, Whittaker, Charles, additional, Filippi, Sarah L., additional, Xi, Xiaoyue, additional, Monod, Mélodie, additional, Ratmann, Oliver, additional, Hutchinson, Michael, additional, Valka, Fabian, additional, Zhu, Harrison, additional, Hawryluk, Iwona, additional, Milton, Philip, additional, Ainslie, Kylie E. C., additional, Baguelin, Marc, additional, Boonyasiri, Adhiratha, additional, Brazeau, Nick F., additional, Cattarino, Lorenzo, additional, Cucunuba, Zulma, additional, Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina, additional, Dorigatti, Ilaria, additional, Eales, Oliver D., additional, Eaton, Jeffrey W., additional, van Elsland, Sabine L., additional, FitzJohn, Richard G., additional, Gaythorpe, Katy A. M., additional, Green, William, additional, Hinsley, Wes, additional, Jeffrey, Benjamin, additional, Knock, Edward, additional, Laydon, Daniel J., additional, Lees, John, additional, Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma, additional, Nouvellet, Pierre, additional, Okell, Lucy, additional, Parag, Kris V., additional, Siveroni, Igor, additional, Thompson, Hayley A., additional, Walker, Patrick, additional, Walters, Caroline E., additional, Watson, Oliver J., additional, Whittles, Lilith K., additional, Ghani, Azra C., additional, Ferguson, Neil M., additional, Riley, Steven, additional, Donnelly, Christl A., additional, Bhatt, Samir, additional, and Flaxman, Seth, additional

Published
2020
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11. Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions

Author

Dighe, Amy, primary, Cattarino, Lorenzo, additional, Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina, additional, Skarp, Janetta, additional, Imai, Natsuko, additional, Bhatia, Sangeeta, additional, Gaythorpe, Katy A. M., additional, Ainslie, Kylie E. C., additional, Baguelin, Marc, additional, Bhatt, Samir, additional, Boonyasiri, Adhiratha, additional, Brazeau, Nicholas F., additional, Cooper, Laura V., additional, Coupland, Helen, additional, Cucunuba, Zulma, additional, Dorigatti, Ilaria, additional, Eales, Oliver D., additional, van Elsland, Sabine L., additional, FitzJohn, Richard G., additional, Green, William D., additional, Haw, David J., additional, Hinsley, Wes, additional, Knock, Edward, additional, Laydon, Daniel J., additional, Mellan, Thomas, additional, Mishra, Swapnil, additional, Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma, additional, Nouvellet, Pierre, additional, Pons-Salort, Margarita, additional, Thompson, Hayley A., additional, Unwin, H. Juliette T., additional, Verity, Robert, additional, Vollmer, Michaela A. C., additional, Walters, Caroline E., additional, Watson, Oliver J., additional, Whittaker, Charles, additional, Whittles, Lilith K., additional, Ghani, Azra C., additional, Donnelly, Christl A., additional, Ferguson, Neil M., additional, and Riley, Steven, additional

Published
2020
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16. The role of rapid diagnostics in managing Ebola epidemics

Author

Nouvellet, Pierre, primary, Garske, Tini, additional, Mills, Harriet L., additional, Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma, additional, Hinsley, Wes, additional, Blake, Isobel M., additional, Van Kerkhove, Maria D., additional, Cori, Anne, additional, Dorigatti, Ilaria, additional, Jombart, Thibaut, additional, Riley, Steven, additional, Fraser, Christophe, additional, Donnelly, Christl A., additional, and Ferguson, Neil M., additional

Published
2015
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