A sediment core was sampled in an urban lake in southern Brazil, and the presence of 27 trace elements was assessed. The geochronology showed that the core corresponds to the period from 1914 to 2012. Accumulation of metals and the level of pollution was measured by the geoaccumulation index (Igeo) and enrichment factor (EF). According to Igeo and EF, the lake showed a high concentration of Ag, Se, Na, Au, S, Ca, Mg, Ba, Sb, Bi, and Sr with 5 ≤ EF ≤ 45 and Igeo class = 2–6. The EF to Au = 45 and Ag = 40. In contrast, Fe, Al, As, Cr, Ga, La, Sc, and Th do not represent pollution (Igeo ≤ 0 and EF ≤ 1.6). A principal component analysis and Spearman correlation showed a first group composed of Ca, Mg, P, Ba, Sr, Na, K, Ag, Bi, Au, Mo, sand, silt, and total organic carbon with positive correlation ≥ 0.70 and > 0.95 to Sr, Ag, sand, and silt. These were negatively correlated ≥− 0.70 with Fe. The second group: Fe, La, Ga, Ti, V, Cr, As, Al, Th from lithogenic source. Prediction models for the concentration for Mg, Na, P, Sr, Fe, Ga, and total organic carbon to years 2020–2050 were obtained with R2 > 0.65. In the anthropogenic source analyses, a watershed land use map indicates multiple uses of the land, with 53% urban area, 14.6% agriculture, and 14.5% forest.