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Objectives: To establish and externally validate a novel nomogram to predict recurrence of patients undergoing curative liver resection for neuroendocrine liver metastasis (NELM). Methods: A total of 279 patients who underwent curative liver resection for NELM identified from an international multicenter database were utilized to develop a nomogram to predict recurrence; 98 cases from two different institutions were used to externally validate the nomogram. Results: Among 279 patients in the development cohort, median age was 57years, and 50.5% were male. On multivariate analysis, primary tumor location (pancreatic vs nonpancreatic, HR 2.1, p = 0.004), tumor grade (Ref. well, moderate HR 1.9, p = 0.022; poor HR 1.6, p = 0.238), lymph node metastasis (positive vs negative, HR 2.6, p = 0.002), and extent of resection (major vs parenchymal-sparing resection, HR 0.3, p = 0.001) were independently associated with recurrence-free survival. The beta coefficients from the final multivariable model were utilized to develop a nomogram. The nomogram demonstrated good ability to predict risk of recurrence (training cohort, C-index 0.754; validation cohort, C-index 0.748). The calibrated nomogram predicted recurrence-free survival that closely corresponded to actual recurrence. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram had a good net benefit for most of the threshold probabilities, especially between 20 and 60%, in both development and validation cohorts. Conclusions: The externally validated novel nomogram predicted 3- and 5-year recurrence-free survival among patients with NELM. Prediction of individual recurrence risk may help guide personalized estimates of prognosis, as well as surveillance protocols and consideration of adjuvant therapies.

Background: The objective of the current study was to assess the impact of serum CA19-9 and CEA and their combination on survival among patients undergoing surgery for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). Methods: Patients who underwent curative-intent resection of ICC between 1990 and 2016 were identified using a multi-institutional database. Patients were categorized into four groups based on combinations of serum CA19-9 and CEA (low vs. high). Factors associated with 1-year mortality after hepatectomy were examined. Results: Among 588 patients, 5-year OS was considerably better among patients with low CA19-9/low CEA (54.5%) compared with low CA19-9/high CEA (14.6%), high CA19-9/low CEA (10.0%), or high CA19-9/high CEA (0%) (P < 0.001). No difference in 1-year OS existed between patients who had either high CA19-9 (high CA19-9/low CEA:70.4%) or high CEA levels (low CA19-9/high CEA:72.5%) (P = 0.92). Although patients with the most favorable tumor marker profile (low CA19-9/low CEA) had the best 1-year survival (87.9%), 15.1% (n = 39) still died within a year of surgery. Among patients with low CA19-9/low CEA, a high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (odds ratio 1.09; 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.64) and large size tumor (odds ratio 3.34; 95% confidence interval 1.40–8.10) were associated with 1-year mortality (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Patients with either a high CA19-9 and/or high CEA had poor 1-year survival. High NLR and large tumor size were associated with a greater risk of 1-year mortality among patients with favorable tumor marker profile.