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In recent years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been collaborating with Indian institutions to organise outreach events. This essay draws on the perspective of participants, speakers and organisers of 17 in-person outreach events conducted across India in 2018 and 2020, to share insights and recommendations for future IPCC events in India and other developing country contexts. The formats analysed in this essay range from panel events with very large public audiences to more focused workshops, meetings and seminars. Target audiences covered both academic and non-academic audiences and included researchers, teachers, students, industry and NGOs. The events, while achieving their main objective of communicating the findings of IPCC reports, also provided a platform for open discussion of localised climate impacts and good practices in adaptation and mitigation. There are, however, notable challenges to public outreach in India, specifically in terms of attracting an adequate number of participants, experts’ availability, communicating to a diverse audience and translation into local languages. The biggest challenge faced by speakers was a lack of knowledge about the number of attendees and the composition of the audience prior to an event. It is our recommendation that future outreach events in India are designed to be interactive, tailored to the regional context and complemented by simplified communication materials. Speakers should be provided with audience information and background prior to the event, and greater reach into rural areas, including school children, could be achieved with material in local languages. Additionally, event organisers often require logistical and operational support to host outreach events.

International audience; The economics of climate policy after Rio led to a climate centric paradigm which departs from the original UNFCCC’s cooperative framework for designing climate policies from the perspective of sustainable development. This resulted in a cap-and-trade approach which aims to mitigate the adverse effects on development through appropriate transfers to achieve fair burden sharing. However, the continuation of this paradigm cannot untie the development-climate Gordian knot. (The Gordian Knot refers to a seemingly intractable problem. According to a Greek legend, Gordios arrived in Phrygia in an ox cart, was made King and dedicated his cart to Zeus, tying it up with an intricate knot. The person who would untie the knot would rule Asia. Alexander the Great found a solution by cutting it with his sword. Hourcade et al. (The design of climate policy. MIT Press, Cambridge, p 408, 2008) explain that, after Rio Earth Summit (1992), the climate negotiations remained disengaged from the debates on development pathways, thus tying up a new Gordian knot of misunderstandings.) Instead one loses sight of the benefits of cooperation in a global agreement to abate GHGs emissions. The challenge is now to align the development and climate objectives taking into consideration the changing context since the 1990s which includes a re-equilibrium of the world economic balance and the adverse context created by the 2008 financial crisis. This paper proposes that carbon finance should be considered as part of a general reform of the financial system. The adoption of a carbon value as a notional price could trigger a wave of low-carbon investments in the world thereby redirecting some global savings towards low-carbon investments, thus providing a lever for equitable access to development.

Addressing the challenges of global warming requires interventions on both the energy supply and demand side. With the supply side responses being thoroughly discussed in the literature, our paper focuses on analyzing the role of end use efficiency improvements for Indian climate change mitigation policy and the associated co-benefits, within the integrated assessment modeling framework of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Six scenarios are analyzed here in total- one no climate policy and two climate policy cases, and within each of these one scenario with reference end use energy technology assumptions and another with advance end use energy technology assumptions has been analyzed. The paper has some important insights. Final energy demand and emissions in India are significantly reduced with energy efficiency improvements, and the role of this policy is important especially for the building and transportation sector under both reference and climate policy scenarios. Though energy efficiency policy should be an integral part of climate policy, by itself it is not sufficient for achieving mitigation targets, and a climate policy is necessary for achieving mitigation goals. There are significant co-benefits of energy efficiency improvements. Energy security for India is improved with reduced oil, coal and gas imports. Significant reduction in local pollutant gases is found which is important for local health concerns. Capital investment requirement for Indian electricity generation is reduced, more so for the climate policy scenarios, and finally there are significant savings in terms of reduced abatement cost for meeting climate change mitigation goals.

Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 (RCP6) is a pathway that describes trends in long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), short-lived species, and land-use/land-cover change leading to a stabilisation of radiative forcing at 6.0 Watts per square meter (Wm−2) in the year 2100 without exceeding that value in prior years. Simulated with the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM), GHG emissions of RCP6 peak around 2060 and then decline through the rest of the century. The energy intensity improvement rates changes from 0.9% per year to 1.5% per year around 2060. Emissions are assumed to be reduced cost-effectively in any period through a global market for emissions permits. The exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystem through photosynthesis and respiration are estimated with the ecosystem model. The regional emissions, except CO2 and N2O, are downscaled to facilitate transfer to climate models.

The Climate negotiations in Copenhagen in December 2009 witnessed the emerging power of Brazil, South Africa, India, and China (BASIC). Although still focussed on domestic development goals, BASIC countries have made important steps toward a greater engagement in the global climate agenda. For India, the shift was marked by a voluntary, but conditional, target of reducing emission intensity, away from the past normative position based on “equal per capita,” emissions entitlements. The new track aims at finding cost-effective mitigation strategies that align national development goals and climate actions. This paper examines the mitigation potential of a domestic sustainable development policy using a suite of integrated assessment models. The long-term goal is to keep temperature increase below 2°C. This article shows that it is possible to match domestic development goals and climate mitigation. Win–win options exist and side benefits—in terms of energy security and local pollution—are important. However, development policies are not sufficient to achieve the desired emissions reductions. We find that it is necessary to introduce a constraint on the carbon budget. The price of carbon that emerges is however much lower than in a conventional mitigation scenario. Finally, this paper proposes to shift the negotiations away from the current climate-centric focus toward “development,” in order to reduce conflicts and deliver greater global and national benefits.

This paper estimates the national level trend of India’s N2O emissions from 1985–2005 and detailed sub-regional (594 districts) level and sector emissions for the year 2005. N2O emissions are estimated using the latest methodologies (IPCC 2006), disaggregated activity data and indigenized emission factors. The estimates show that India’s N2O emissions have grown from 144 Gg in 1985 to 267 Gg in 2005 exhibiting a compounded annual growth rate of 3.1%, which has been gradually declining from 4.7% over 1985–1990 to 2.4% over 2000–2005. N-fertilizer application contributed most to N2O emissions, a 49% share in 2005 compared to 40% in 1985. Sub-regional (district-level) distribution of N2O emissions showed rising mean and spread over the years, with average emissions per districts increasing from 305 ton N2O per year in 1990 to 450 tons in 2005. The main reason being increased use of N-fertilizer. However crop selection plays an important role in N2O emissions and there are crops providing high economic returns but low N-fertilizer requirements. Agriculture sector could contribute considerably to GDP even with very low N2O emissions. Indian agriculture practices vary widely in input applications and crop yields across states. The gradual transition from traditional to modern agriculture over past two decades has enhanced the intensity of inputs like N-fertilizer. A simple correlation based on 1985–2005 trends shows that, ceteris paribus, a 10% increase in total crop production is accompanied with a 12.4% increase in N-fertilizer application and a 9.7% increase in total N2O emissions from India.

India has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Over 650 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture and forestry, for livelihood and over 973 million people are exposed to vector borne malarial parasites. Projection of climatic factors indicates a wider exposure to malaria for the Indian population in the future. If precautionary measures are not taken and development processes are not managed properly some developmental activities, such as hydro-electric dams and irrigation canal systems, may also exacerbate breeding grounds for malaria. This article integrates climate change and developmental variables in articulating a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study. The climate change variables include temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme events, and other secondary variables. Development variables are income levels, institutional mechanisms to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote malarial breeding grounds, and other policies. The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and therefore they produce a negative impact on the system. The study concludes that well crafted and well managed developmental policies could result in enhanced resilience of communities and systems, and lower health impacts due to climate change.

The paper presents a number of ideas on how climate change policy implementation in developing countries can be supported by alternative international cooperation mechanisms that are based on stakeholder interests and policy priorities including broader economic and social development issues. It includes a brief review of current development policies, technological research and promotion efforts, and climate change that demonstrates that mutual policy initiatives undertaken by governments and the private sector actually have major positive impacts on climate change without being initiated by this global policy concern. Furthermore a number of examples are given on how future development objectives in Brazil, China, and India jointly can support economic and social goals and global climate change concerns if these goals are taken into consideration and supported by international cooperative mechanisms. The paper proposes international cooperative mechanisms that can support the implementation of integrated development and climate change policies. The mechanisms include an international sustainable development (SD) and Climate Finance Mechanism (SDCFM), technology development and transition programmes, technology standards, and other measures.

The global climate change stabilization regime will have a bearing on future emission pathways of each nation. Corresponding to a combination of stabilization targets and a future global socioeconomic and technology scenario, there are national emissions pathways that when aggregated would make the global regime most cost effective. The underlying hypothesis of this article is that the disaggregated national (regional) scenarios, with explicit inclusion of developing country dynamics in scenario constructions and modeling frameworks, would enhance the qualitative and quantitative understanding of emissions pathways and mitigation strategies compared with the present exercises. The scenario construction for India pays specific attention to developing country dynamics, including multiple socioeconomic and demographic transitions. The article also delineates the lessons for modeling of these transitions in developing countries. The emissions pathways discussion, to begin with, considers 100-year nonintervention scenarios. For the business-as-usual scenario, the optimal portfolio of mitigation interventions in India corresponding to 550ppm (by volume) global concentration stabilization is presented. In conclusion, the article asserts the need for realistic inclusion of developing country transitions in global scenarios and modeling exercises so as to improve the emissions assessments and delineation of mitigation strategies for stabilization.

In the coming years India faces greatchallenges in energy and environment. Thepath of development chosen by India, uponwhich lies the future growth of energy andemission trajectories, would be greatlyinfluenced by technological developmentsboth within and outside the country,economic cooperation between countries, andglobal cooperation in limiting greenhousegas emissions. This paper discusses theintegrated modeling system used fordeveloping and analyzing the long-termtrajectories and presents results for thescenarios developed. In the context ofongoing market reforms two scenarios –accelerated and decelerated reforms – aredeveloped depicting fast and slow progressin energy sector reforms compared toexpectations in the baseline scenario.Accelerated market reforms would spurimprovements in technological efficiencies.Reforms would lower investment risks inIndia, thereby stimulating increased levelsof foreign direct investment. On the otherhand in decelerated reform scenarioeconomic growth is lower than that in thebase case, there is low access to capital,and technological improvements lag behindthose in the base case. In another scenariowe assume specific policy interventions forpenetration of renewable technologies overthe baseline scenario, for promotion andaccelerated deployment of renewable energytechnologies over and above the baselineassumptions. A scenario with carbon(c) constraints has also been developed and theresults discussed.

This paper estimates the future greenhousegas (GHG) and local pollutant emissions forIndia under various scenarios. Thereference scenario assumes continuation ofthe current official policies of the Indiangovernment and forecasts of macro-economic,demographic and energy sector indicators.Other scenarios analyzed are the economicgrowth scenarios (high and low), carbonmitigation scenario, sulfur mitigationscenario and frozen (development) scenario.The main insight is that GHG and localpollutant emissions from India, althoughconnected, do not move in synchronizationin future and have a disjoint under variousscenarios. GHG emissions continue to risewhile local pollutant emissions decreaseafter some years. GHG emission mitigationtherefore would have to be pursued for itsown sake in India. National energy securityconcerns also favor this conclusion sincecoal is the abundant national resource whilemost of the natural gas has to be imported.The analysis of contributing factors tothis disjoint indicates that sulfurreduction in petroleum oil products andpenetration of flue gas desulfurisationtechnologies are the two main contributorsfor sulfur dioxide (SO2) mitigation.The reduction in particulate emissions ismainly due to enforcing electro-staticprecipitator efficiency norms in industrialunits, with cleaner fuels and vehicles alsocontributing substantially. These policytrends are already visible in India.Another insight is that high economicgrowth is better than lower growth tomitigate local pollution as lack ofinvestible resources limits investments incleaner environmental measures. Ouranalysis also validates the environmentalKuznets' curve for India as SO2emissions peak around per capita GDP ofUS$ 5,300–5,400 (PPP basis) under variouseconomic growth scenarios.

The complex dynamics between energy, emissions and economy have increasingly attracted modelling studies over the past decade. In this paper, we briefly describe two top-down models that were adapted for India and show some key results from them. Working with more than one model gives us a better understanding of the differences in model structures and puts us in a good position for appreciating the differences in results from these models due to this fact. We project the long-term energy and emission trajectories from the global model (ERB) and the national model (SGM) and come to a conclusion that India’s energy system will remain largely dependent on coal in BAU case and is open to change under a regime of carbon taxes towards less carbon-emitting fuels like gas and renewables. Carbon tax reduces carbon dioxide emissions but there is also a loss of GDP.