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Background Estimating cardiovascular (CV) event accrual is important for outcome trial planning. Limited data exist describing event accrual patterns in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We compared apparent CV event accrual patterns with true event rates in the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS). Methods Centrally adjudicated event dates and accrual rates for a 4-point major adverse CV event composite (MACE-4; includes CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or unstable angina hospitalization), MACE-4 components, all-cause mortality (ACM), and heart failure hospitalization were compiled. We used three graphical methods (Weibull probability plot, plot of negative log of the Kaplan–Meier survival distribution estimate, and the Epanechnikov kernel-smoothed estimate of the hazard rate) to examine hazard rate morphology over time for the 7 outcomes. Results Plots for all outcomes showed real-time constant event hazard rates for the duration of the follow-up, confirmed by Weibull shape parameters. The Weibull shape parameters for ACM (1.14, 95% CI 1.08–1.21) and CV death (1.08, 95% CI 1.01–1.16) were not sufficiently > 1 as to require non-constant hazard rate models to accurately depict the data. The time lag between event occurrence and event adjudication being completed, the adjudication gap, improved over the course of the trial. Conclusions In TECOS, the nonfatal event hazard rates were constant over time. Small increases over time in the hazard rate for fatal events would not require complex modelling to predict event accrual, providing confidence in traditional modelling methods for predicting CV outcome trial event rates in this population. The adjudication gap provides a useful metric to monitor within-trial event accrual patterns. Clinical trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00790205.

Glucocorticoids prescribed to limit inflammation, have significant adverseeffects. As 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1 (11β-HSD1) regeneratesactive glucocorticoid, we investigated whether 11β-HSD1 inhibition withAZD4017 could mitigate adverse glucocorticoid effectswithout compromisingtheir anti-inflammatory actions. We conducted a proof-of-concept, randomized,double-blind, placebo-controlled study at Research Unit, ChurchillHospital, Oxford, UK (NCT03111810). 32 healthy male volunteers were randomizedto AZD4017 or placebo, alongside prednisolone treatment. Althoughthe primary endpoint of the study (change in glucose disposal during a twostephyperinsulinemic, normoglycemic clamp) wasn’t met, hepatic insulinsensitivity worsened in the placebo-treated but not in the AZD4017-treatedgroup. Protective effects of AZD4017 onmarkers of lipid metabolism and boneturnover were observed. Night-time blood pressure was higher in the placebotreatedbut not in the AZD4017-treated group. Urinary (5aTHF+THF)/THE ratiowas lower in the AZD4017-treated but remained the same in the placebotreatedgroup. Most anti-inflammatory actions of prednisolone persisted withAZD4017 co-treatment. Four adverse events were reported with AZD4017 andno serious adverse events. Here we show that co-administration of AZD4017with prednisolone in men is a potential strategy to limit adverse glucocorticoideffects.

Background Among individuals with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is common and confers increased risk for morbidity and mortality. Differentiating risk is key to optimize efficiency of treatment selection. Our objective was to develop and validate a model to predict risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) comprising the first event of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction (MI), or stroke for individuals with both T2DM and ASCVD. Methods Using data from the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS), we used Cox proportional hazards models to predict MACE among participants with T2DM and ASCVD. All baseline covariates collected in the trial were considered for inclusion, although some were excluded immediately because of large missingness or collinearity. A full model was developed using stepwise selection in each of 25 imputed datasets, and comprised candidate variables selected in 20 of the 25 datasets. A parsimonious model with a maximum of 10 degrees of freedom was created using Cox models with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), where the adjusted R-square was used as criterion for selection. The model was then externally validated among a cohort of participants with similar criteria in the ACCORD (Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes) trial. Discrimination of both models was assessed using Harrell’s C-index and model calibration by the Greenwood-Nam-D’Agostino statistic based on 4-year event rates. Results Overall, 1491 (10.2%) of 14,671 participants in TECOS and 130 (9.3%) in the ACCORD validation cohort (n = 1404) had MACE over 3 years’ median follow-up. The final model included 9 characteristics (prior stroke, age, chronic kidney disease, prior MI, sex, heart failure, insulin use, atrial fibrillation, and microvascular complications). The model had moderate discrimination in both the internal and external validation samples (C-index = 0.65 and 0.61, respectively). The model was well calibrated across the risk spectrum—from a cumulative MACE rate of 6% at 4 years in the lowest risk quintile to 26% in the highest risk quintile. Conclusion Among patients with T2DM and prevalent ASCVD, this 9-factor risk model can quantify the risk of future ASCVD complications and inform decision making for treatments and intensity.

Introduction To date, research is lacking on the development of a cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment tool for people with diabetes mellitus, in general, and for Chinese patients with diabetes in particular. We have explored CVD risk assessment tools for Chinese patients with diabetes. Here, we report our investigation of cardiovascular risk assessment using the improved Framingham Risk Score (I-FRS) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Beijing communities. Methods A total of 3232 patients with T2DM attending Beijing community health centers were enrolled in this study. FRS were used to predict CVD risk in all patients at baseline using the following risk scores for glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) categories: 0 = HbA1c ≤ 7.0%; 1 = 7.0% 9.0%. The I-FRS was use to stratify all patients into low (I-FRS 20%) FRS strata. All treatments administered in the Beijing Communities Diabetes Study were in accordance with national guidelines for T2DM in China, and patients regularly attended clinical consultations with professors in endocrinology, who were experts in their respective speciality, from top tier hospitals. After 10 years, patients were followed-up to assess the long-term effects of the multifactorial interventions. Statistical analysis was performed using SAS® software (SAS Institute, Inc., Cary, NC, USA). Results The receiver operating characteristic curve of the I-FRS showed significant prediction accuracy for the actual incidence of CVD events. At baseline, subjects in the high FRS stratum for diabetes were more prone to be elderly and to have a longer duration of T2DM, higher systolic blood pressure, and higher lipid profiles. Subjects in the medium and high FRS strata had a higher incidence of CVD events than those in the no-complications group (DM group with no blood pressure issues) (P 20% was 12.5-fold higher than that of patients with I-FRS score

Obesity increases the risk of developing cardiovascular disease and other metabolic diseases. We intended to compare three different anthropometric indicators of obesity, in predicting the incidence of cardiovascular events in Chinese type 2 diabetes. Beijing Community Diabetes Study was a prospective multi-center study conducted in Beijing community health centers. Type 2 diabetes patients from fourteen community health centers were enrolled at baseline. The primary endpoint was cardiovascular events. The upper quartile of neck circumference (NC) was set as greater NC. A total of 3299 diabetes patients were enrolled. In which, 941 (28.52%) had cardiovascular disease at baseline. Logistic analysis showed that central obesity (waist circumference (WC) above 90 cm in men and 85 cm in women) and greater NC were all related to baseline cardiovascular disease (adjusted OR = 1.49, and 1.55). After 10-year follow-up, 340 (10.31%) had cardiovascular events. Compared with patients without cardiovascular events, those having cardiovascular events had higher BMI, larger WC and NC. Cox regression analysis showed that greater WC and NC were all associated with the occurrence of cardiovascular events (adjusted HR = 1.41, and 1.38). A higher NC and WC might increase the risk of cardiovascular events by about 40% in type 2 diabetes patients in Beijing communities.

Dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP4) modulates inflammation by enzymatic cleavage of immunoregulatory peptides and through its soluble form (sDPP4) that directly engages immune cells. Here we examine whether reduction of DPP4 activity alters inflammation. Prolonged DPP4 inhibition increases plasma levels of sDPP4, and induces sDPP4 expression in lymphocyte-enriched organs in mice. Bone marrow transplantation experiments identify hematopoietic cells as the predominant source of plasma sDPP4 following catalytic DPP4 inhibition. Surprisingly, systemic DPP4 inhibition increases plasma levels of inflammatory markers in regular chow-fed but not in high fat-fed mice. Plasma levels of sDPP4 and biomarkers of inflammation are lower in metformin-treated subjects with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease, yet exhibit considerable inter-individual variation. Sitagliptin therapy for 12 months reduces DPP4 activity yet does not increase markers of inflammation or levels of sDPP4. Collectively our findings dissociate levels of DPP4 enzyme activity, sDPP4 and biomarkers of inflammation in mice and humans., DPP4 inhibitors are used for the treatment of diabetes, but the impact of DPP4 activity and soluble DPP4 on development of diabetes-associated inflammation remains uncertain. Here the authors study whether DPP4 inhibition controls sDPP4 and inflammatory biomarkers, and demonstrate that DPP4 inhibition is dissociated from changes in inflammation in mice and humans.

The risk of death from cardiovascular causes in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus remains around twice that in the general population, with heart failure a common event. In 2017, results from cardiovascular outcome trials in people with diabetes mellitus showed that some drugs have dual utility — reducing cardiovascular risk and improving glycaemic control.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We compared the effect of biphasic, basal or prandial insulin regimens on glucose control, clinical outcomes and adverse events in people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE and major American and European conference abstracts for randomised controlled trials up to October 2008. A systematic review and meta-analyses were performed. RESULTS: Twenty-two trials that randomised 4,379 patients were included. Seven trials reported both starting insulin dose and titration schedules. Hypoglycaemia definitions and glucose targets varied. Meta-analyses were performed pooling data from insulin-naive patients. Greater HbA(1c) reductions were seen with biphasic and prandial insulin, compared with basal insulin, of 0.45% (95% CI 0.19-0.70, p = 0.0006) and 0.45% (95% CI 0.16-0.73, p = 0.002), respectively, but with lesser reductions of fasting glucose of 0.93 mmol/l (95% CI 0.21-1.65, p = 0.01) and 2.20 mmol/l (95% CI 1.70-2.70, p < 0.00001), respectively. Larger insulin doses at study end were reported in biphasic and prandial arms compared with basal arms. No studies found differences in major hypoglycaemic events, but minor hypoglycaemic events for prandial and biphasic insulin were inconsistently reported as either higher than or equivalent to basal insulin. Greater weight gain was seen with prandial compared with basal insulin (1.86 kg, 95% CI 0.80-2.92, p = 0.0006). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Greater HbA(1c) reduction may be obtained in type 2 diabetes when insulin is initiated using biphasic or prandial insulin rather than a basal regimen, but with an unquantified risk of hypoglycaemia. Studies with longer follow-up are required to determine the clinical relevance of this finding.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of the study was to examine the impact of statin or omega-3-acid ethyl esters 90 (omega-3 EE90; omega-3-acid ethyl esters 90 refers to a mixture of ethyl esters of n-3 fatty acids) on estimated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in community-based people with type 2 diabetes but without known CVD and not taking lipid-lowering therapy. METHODS: A central computer randomised 800 patients in 59 UK general practices to atorvastatin (n = 401, 20 mg/day) or placebo (n = 399) and omega-3 EE90 (n = 397, 2 g/day) or placebo (n = 403) in a concealed factorial manner. Participants with LDL-cholesterol or=20%. Of 732 patients with 4-month data, more allocated atorvastatin (n = 371) compared with placebo (n = 361) achieved LDL-cholesterol

The consensus algorithm for the medical management of type 2 diabetes was published in August 2006 with the expectation that it would be updated, based on the availability of new interventions and new evidence to establish their clinical role. The authors continue to endorse the principles used to develop the algorithm and its major features. We are sensitive to the risks of changing the algorithm cavalierly or too frequently, without compelling new information. An update to the consensus algorithm published in January 2008 specifically addressed safety issues surrounding the thiazolidinediones. In this revision, we focus on the new classes of medications that now have more clinical data and experience.

Aims/hypothesis The aim of this study was to develop a simulation model for Type 2 diabetes that can be used to estimate the likely occurrence of major diabetes-related complications over a lifetime, in order to calculate health economic outcomes such as quality-adjusted life expectancy.\ud Methods Equations for forecasting the occurrence of seven diabetes-related complications and death were estimated using data on 3642 patients from the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS). After examining the internal validity, the UKPDS Outcomes Model was used to simulate the mean difference in expected quality-adjusted life years between the UKPDS regimens of intensive and conventional blood glucose control.\ud Results The models forecasts fell within the 95% confidence interval for the occurrence of observed events during the UKPDS follow-up period. When the model was used to simulate event history over patients lifetimes, those treated with a regimen of conventional glucose control could expect 16.35 undiscounted quality-adjusted life years, and those receiving treatment with intensive glucose control could expect 16.62 quality-adjusted life years, a difference of 0.27 (95% CI: –0.48 to 1.03).\ud Conclusions/interpretations The UKPDS Outcomes Model is able to simulate event histories that closely match observed outcomes in the UKPDS and that can be extrapolated over patients lifetimes. Its validity in estimating outcomes in other groups of patients, however, remains to be evaluated. The model allows simulation of a range of long-term outcomes, which should assist in informing future economic evaluations of interventions in Type 2 diabetes.

Aims/hypothesis. To estimate the economic efficiency of intensive blood-glucose control with metformin compared with conventional therapy primarily with diet in overweight patients with Type II (non-insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus. Methods. Cost-effectiveness analysis based on patient level data from a randomised clinical controlled trial involving 753 overweight ( > 120 % ideal body weight) patients with newly diagnosed Type II diabetes conducted in 15 hospital-based clinics in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland as part of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study. Subjects were allocated at random to an intensive blood-glucose control policy with metformin (n = 342) or a conventional policy primarily with diet (n = 411). The analysis was based on the cost of health care resources associated with metformin and conventional therapy and the estimated effectiveness in terms of life expectancy gained from within-trial effects. Results. Intensive blood-glucose control with metformin produced a net saving of £ 258 per patient (1997 United Kingdom prices) over the trial period (median duration of 10.7 years) due to lower complication costs, and increased life expectancy by 0.4 years (costs and benefits discounted at 6 %). Conclusions/interpretation. As metformin is both cost-saving in the United Kingdom and extends life expectancy when used as first line pharmacological therapy in overweight Type II diabetic patients, its use should be attractive to clinicians and health care managers alike. [Diabetologia (2001) 44: 298–304]

Keywords Fastingplasmaglucose.Genetics.Glucokinase.MODY.PredictionAbbreviationsDHPLC denaturing high performance liquidchromatographyEDIT Early Intervention Diabetes TrialFHS Fasting Hyperglycaemia StudyGCK-MODY glucokinase MODY2HPGI 2-hour post-challenge plasma glucoseincrementTo the Editor: Glucokinase is a key enzyme that regulatesinsulinsecretionbychangingbetacellglucosephosphorylationrates over the range of physiological glucose concentrations[1]. Inactivating mutations in the gene encoding glucokinase(GCK), as seen in glucokinase MODY (GCK-MODY), shiftthe threshold value for glucose-stimulated insulin secretionfrom ∼5to∼7 mmol/l, resulting in elevated fasting plasmaglucose (FPG) levels (5.5–8.0 mmol/l) but normal (typically

The deletion allele of the insertion/deletion polymorphism of the angiotensin-converting enzyme gene has been suggested to be an independent risk factor for myocardial infarction, particularly in subjects judged to be "low-risk" by the criteria of lipid status and body mass index. In a prospective, matched case-control study, we have investigated the role of this polymorphism as a risk factor for myocardial infarction in 173 newly-diagnosed British Caucasian non-insulin-dependent diabetic subjects taken from the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study who subsequently developed myocardial infarction and 297 control subjects from the same study population matched for known cardiovascular risk factors including age at diagnosis of diabetes, gender, blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride and smoking habit. A trend towards increased risk conferred by homozygosity for the deletion allele was observed in cases (odds ratio 1.63, p = 0.09). When the population was stratified according to the matched risk factors, the deletion allele was associated with myocardial infarction in those with low plasma low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (odds ratio 3.67, p = 0.002), or low triglyceride (odds ratio 3.14, p = 0.005). The strongest association of the deletion allele with myocardial infarction was observed in subjects with both low low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and low triglyceride levels (odds ratio 9.0, p < 0.001). These results show that the deletion allele is a risk factor for myocardial infarction in non-insulin-dependent diabetic patients who have a favourable lipid profile.

Background Trial research has predominantly focused on patient and staff understandings of trial concepts and/or motivations for taking part, rather than why treatment recommendations may or may not be followed during trial delivery. This study sought to understand why there was limited attainment of the glycaemic target (HbA1c ≤6.5%) among patients who participated in the Treating to Target in Type 2 Diabetes Trial (4-T). The objective was to inform interpretation of trial outcomes and provide recommendations for future trial delivery. Methods In-depth interviews were conducted with 45 patients and 21 health professionals recruited from 11 of 58 trial centres in the UK. Patients were broadly representative of those in the main trial in terms of treatment allocation, demographics and glycaemic control. Both physicians and research nurses were interviewed. Results Most patients were committed to taking insulin as recommended by 4-T staff. To avoid hypoglycaemia, patients occasionally altered or skipped insulin doses, normally in consultation with staff. Patients were usually unaware of the trial's glycaemic target. Positive staff feedback could lead patients to believe they had been 'successful' trial participants even when their HbA1c exceeded 6.5%. While some staff felt that the 4-T automated insulin dose adjustment algorithm had increased their confidence to prescribe larger insulin doses than in routine clinical practice, all described situations where they had not followed its recommendations. Staff regarded the application of a 'one size fits all' glycaemic target during the trial as contradicting routine clinical practice where they would tailor treatments to individuals. Staff also expressed concerns that 'tight' glycaemic control might impose an unacceptably high risk of hypoglycaemia, thus compromising trust and safety, especially amongst older patients. To address these concerns, staff tended to adapt the trial protocol to align it with their clinical practices and experiences. Conclusions To understand trial findings, foster attainment of endpoints, and promote protocol fidelity, it may be necessary to look beyond individual patient characteristics and experiences. Specifically, the context of trial delivery, the impact of staff involvement, and the difficulties staff may encounter in balancing competing 'clinical' and 'research' roles and responsibilities may need to be considered and addressed.

Patients with diabetes mellitus have an increased risk of developing heart failure. In a recent study, people hospitalised for first-time heart failure also had an increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) that was positively associated with loop-diuretic dosage. These findings highlight the need for extra awareness of T2DM in such patients.

To the Editor: We thank Dr Lund for his comments [1] on our analysis of cancer incidence and mortality in randomised trials of metformin [2] and confirm that the Hyperinsulinaemia: the Outcome of its Metabolic Effects (HOME) trial [3] was excluded because it did not meet our sample size inclusion criterion. Dr. Lund also calls attention to our sensitivity analysis of all-cause mortality, which excluded one trial, the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) trial of metformin in patients with sulfonylurea failure (UKPDS-S) [4], from the group of trials in which the comparator was placebo or usual care. This acknowledged post hoc sensitivity analysis was carried out because of the high heterogeneity in this group of studies (I=50.8%), but Dr Lund correctly observes that we could equally conduct a sensitivity analysis to exclude the other large trial in this group of studies, the UKPDS trial of metformin in overweight patients (UKPDS-O). For completeness, we include here a table of relative risks for all-cause mortality, and corresponding confidence intervals and heterogeneity statistics, for all placeboor usual-carecontrolled trials, and excluding each trial in turn (Table 1). Exclusion of either UKPDS trial, but not any other trial in this group, reduces the I statistic for heterogeneity to 0.0%. We believe that the remarks in our paper that the summary estimates ‘are dominated by the two large trials from the UKPDS group, which appear to show for metformin effects in opposite directions’ and that our analyses have limitations to be overcome by future randomised trials, remain justified. We re-emphasise our observation that the average follow-up for mortality in our analysis is just 2.8 years, and that our results for all-cause mortality in particular are unlikely to fully reflect the long-term effects of metformin. R. J. Stevens (*) Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK e-mail: richard.stevens@phc.ox.ac.uk

Worldwide, >366 million people with type 2 diabetes mellitus remain at excess risk of cardiovascular disease and face a lifetime of treatment escalation for this progressive disorder. Studies in 2012 have re-affirmed the safety of early insulin treatment, metformin use in renal impairment, and shown β-cell function preservation over several years.