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More than one teramole of carbon per year is subducted as carbonate or carbonaceous material. However, the influence of carbonation/decarbonation reactions on seismic activity within subduction zones is poorly understood. Here we present field and microstructural observations, including stable isotope analyses, of carbonate veins within the Higuchi serpentinite body, Japan. We find that the carbon and oxygen isotope compositions of carbonate veins indicate that carbonic fluids originated from organic materials in metasediments. Thermodynamic calculations reveal that carbonation of serpentinite was accompanied by a solid volume decrease, dehydration, and high magnesium mobility. We propose that carbonation of the mantle wedge occurs episodically in a self-promoting way and is controlled by a solid volume contraction and fluid overpressure. In our conceptual model, brittle fracturing and carbonate precipitation were followed by ductile flow of carbonates and hydrous minerals; this might explain the occurrence of episodic tremor and slip in the serpentinized mantle wedge. Carbonation of a serpentinized mantle wedge is associated with volume reduction and fluid over-pressurization which drives brittle fracture and seismicity, according to chemical analyses of carbonate veins from the Sanbagawa belt Japan and thermodynamic calculations.

Abstract Inversion is a key method for extracting nonlinear dynamics governed by heterogeneous reaction that occur in parallel in the natural sciences. Therefore, in this study, we propose a Bayesian statistical framework to determine the active reaction pathways using only the noisy observable spatial distribution of the solid phase. In this method, active reaction pathways were explored using a Widely Applicable Bayesian Information Criterion (WBIC), which is used to select models within the framework of Bayesian inference. Plausible reaction mechanisms were determined by maximizing the posterior distribution. This conditional probability is obtained through Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The efficiency of the proposed method is then determined using simulated spatial data of the solid phase. The results show that active reaction pathways can be identified from the redundant candidates of reaction pathways. After these redundant reaction pathways were excluded, the controlling factor of the reaction dynamics was estimated with high accuracy. Graphic Abstract

Metaharzburgite and metadunite in the ultramafic body of the Naran Massif in the Khantaishir Ophiolite, western Mongolia, record multi-stage processes of serpentinization (antigorite, lizardite + brucite, then chrysotile). Bulk-rock chemistry and the compositions of primary olivine (P-olivine) and Cr-spinel suggest that the alteration occurred in the forearc mantle. In the metaharzburgite, a novel occurrence of fine-grained (10–50 μm) secondary olivine (S-olivine) takes the form of aggregates (a few millimeters across) with bands of antigorite. The S-olivine has higher Mg# values (0.96–0.98) than the P-olivine (Mg# = 0.92–0.94) and contains inclusions of clinopyroxene and magnetite. The P-olivine has been replaced by antigorite and magnetite. Mesh textures of lizardite + brucite are developed in both P- and S-olivine. The microtextures and chemical compositions of minerals suggest that S-olivine aggregates were formed by pseudomorphic replacement of orthopyroxene related to multi-stage hydration processes. Assuming the mantle wedge conditions beneath a thin crust, orthopyroxene was first replaced by S-olivine + talc at high temperatures (500–650 °C at ~ 0.5 GPa). With cooling to ca. 400–500 °C and fluid supply, talc transformed to antigorite with the release of silica. During this stage, P-olivine was also transformed to antigorite by consumption of silica released from orthopyroxene decomposition. At temperatures below 300 °C, lizardite + brucite ± magnetite formed from the remaining P- and S-olivine grains. The formation of S-olivine presented in this study contrasts with the commonly ascribed process of deserpentinization. Taking into account the geochemical data for the studied ultramafic rocks and those previously reported for mafic rocks, our results suggest that mantle wedge beneath thin crust was hydrated in response to continuous cooling and fluid supply from a subducting slab after subduction initiation.