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Coastal wetlands are shrinking rapidly due to land-use activities. Accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) associated to the warming climate is also affecting coastal wetlands, particularly in islands with limited coastal plains. We analyzed coastal wetland changes in Puerto Rico by applying the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model under two scenarios by 2100. We also analyzed mortality and recruitment in a freshwater swamp dominated by the tree Pterocarpus officinalis Jacq. in the context of landscape saltwater-intrusion and drought. Our results indicate mangroves and estuarine water would replace the areas currently covered by other saltwater and freshwater wetlands, and saltmarsh would encounter the most relative loss among wetland types. A moderate SLR of 1 m by 2100 allows expansion of mangroves but would decrease saltmarsh and freshwater wetlands. A 2-m SLR would decrease the distributions of all vegetated wetlands, mostly replaced by estuarine water. In the P. officinalis forest, saltwater-intrusion and drought increased tree mortality during 2003–2015 compared to 1994–2003. Saltwater intrusion had a more significant negative effect on tree recruitment than on mortality in this Pterocarpus forest. Coastal wetlands are facing challenges to their persistence at current locations due to accelerated SLR, limited coastal lands, and a modified hydrological regime.

The resilience of a global sample of ecosystems to an increase in drought conditions is assessed, comparing data from the early twenty-first with the late twentieth century; results indicate a cross-ecosystem capacity for tolerating low precipitation and responding to high precipitation during recent warm drought and yet suggest a threshold to resilience with prolonged warm drought. The early twenty-first century has seen a global increase in drought conditions. These authors describe the response of plant communities in a global sample of ecosystems to drought stress as a measure of ecosystem resilience, comparing data from the early twenty-first century with the late twentieth century. They find a common range of water-use efficiency values across timescales and locations, with the increases in dry years this century not yet compromising the ability to lower water-use efficiency in response to wetter years. This work will help provide an understanding of how vegetation production will respond to the altered hydroclimatic conditions predicted with climate change, important when making decisions about food production and resource management. Climate change is predicted to increase both drought frequency and duration, and when coupled with substantial warming, will establish a new hydroclimatological model for many regions1. Large-scale, warm droughts have recently occurred in North America, Africa, Europe, Amazonia and Australia, resulting in major effects on terrestrial ecosystems, carbon balance and food security2,3. Here we compare the functional response of above-ground net primary production to contrasting hydroclimatic periods in the late twentieth century (1975–1998), and drier, warmer conditions in the early twenty-first century (2000–2009) in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. We find a common ecosystem water-use efficiency (WUEe: above-ground net primary production/evapotranspiration) across biomes ranging from grassland to forest that indicates an intrinsic system sensitivity to water availability across rainfall regimes, regardless of hydroclimatic conditions. We found higher WUEe in drier years that increased significantly with drought to a maximum WUEe across all biomes; and a minimum native state in wetter years that was common across hydroclimatic periods. This indicates biome-scale resilience to the interannual variability associated with the early twenty-first century drought—that is, the capacity to tolerate low, annual precipitation and to respond to subsequent periods of favourable water balance. These findings provide a conceptual model of ecosystem properties at the decadal scale applicable to the widespread altered hydroclimatic conditions that are predicted for later this century. Understanding the hydroclimatic threshold that will break down ecosystem resilience and alter maximum WUEe may allow us to predict land-surface consequences as large regions become more arid, starting with water-limited, low-productivity grasslands.