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We rank the quality of German macroeconomic forecasts using various methods for 17 regular annual German economic forecasts from 14 different institutions for the period from 1993 to 2019. Using data for just one year, rankings based on different methods correlate only weakly with each other. Correlations of rankings calculated for two consecutive years and a given method are often relatively low and statistically insignificant. For the total sample, rank correlations between institutions are generally relatively high among different criteria. We report substantial long-run differences in forecasting quality, which are mostly due to distinct average forecast horizons. In the long-run, choosing the criterion to rank the forecasters is of minor importance. Rankings based on recession years and normal periods are similar. The same does hold for rankings based on real-time vs revised data.

In der Märzausgabe 2019 veröffentlichte der Wirtschaftsdienst einen Aufsatz mit dem Titel „Vorschlag zur Grundrente: ungerecht, ineffizient und teuer“ von Franz Ruland. Tim Köhler-Rama vertritt hier eine andere Auffassung, er plädiert für die Grundrente als Element des sozialen Ausgleichs im Rentenrecht. Im Anschluss erläutert Ruland seinen Standpunkt in einer Erwiderung.

Ein einheitlicher Rentenbeitrag trotz längerer Lebenserwartung der Frauen, der Ausbau derKindererziehungszeiten und die Hinterbliebenenrenten stellen faktische Begünstigungen von Frauen in der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung dar. Wie sollten derartige Umverteilungen ordnungspolitisch korrekt finanziert werden? Während Kindererziehungs- und Hinterbliebenenleistungen (zumindest teilweise) aus Steuermitteln finanziert werden, gilt dies bislang nicht für den Transfer zugunsten der Frauen aufgrund von durchschnittlich längeren Rentenlaufzeiten. Die Autoren plädieren grundsätzlich für eine Mischfi nanzierung der Kosten.

The yeast Pichia ciferrii produces large quantities of the sphingoid base tetraacetyl phytosphingosine (TAPS) and is an interesting platform organism for the biotechnological production of sphingolipids and ceramides. Ceramides have attracted great attention as a specialty ingredient for moisture retention and protection of the skin in the cosmetics industry. First attempts have been started to metabolically engineer P. ciferrii for improved production of TAPS and other sphingoid bases. However, rational metabolic engineering of P. ciferrii is difficult due to a low gene targeting efficiency. In eukaryotes, two major pathways coexist, which are responsible for genomic DNA integration, homologous recombination (HR) and non-homologous end joining (NHEJ). Integration via HR is targeted, while NHEJ involves ectopic (non-targeted) integration depending on a ligation step mediated by DNA ligase IV (Lig4). Here, we demonstrate a dramatical increase in gene targeting efficiency in a P. ciferrii lig4 knockout strain, deficient in NHEJ. Furthermore, a quick and easy to use freeze-thaw method was developed to transform P. ciferrii with high efficiency. Owing to the ability of targeting genomic DNA integration our results pave the way for further genetic and metabolic engineering approaches with P. ciferrii by means of knocking out or overexpressing predestinated genes.

Recent developments in the study of the prehistory of the northern Mogollon and Anasazi areas of the North American Southwest are reviewed, with emphasis on the pre-A.D. 1150 period, in an attempt to identify key empirical results and incipient interpretive directions.