1. Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050
- Author
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Andrew M. Badger, Kelly Eurek, Jordan Macknick, Bryan K. Mignone, Daniel Steinberg, Ben Livneh, Kristen Averyt, and Yinong Sun
- Subjects
Atmospheric Science ,Global and Planetary Change ,Mains electricity ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Natural resource economics ,020209 energy ,Electricity system ,Climate change ,02 engineering and technology ,01 natural sciences ,Variable (computer science) ,Software deployment ,Scale (social sciences) ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Environmental science ,Climate model ,Economic impact analysis ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences - Abstract
Climate change may affect the US electricity system through changes in electricity demand, mediated by increases in average surface temperature, and through changes in electricity supply, mediated by changes in both surface temperature and regional water availability. By coupling projections from four general circulation models (GCMs) with a state-of-the-art US electricity system model—the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)—this study evaluates both the isolated and combined effects of different climate-mediated drivers of US electricity system change through 2050. Comparing results across climate models allows us to evaluate which effects are robust to uncertainty in projected climate outcomes. Comparing effects of different drivers in isolation and in combination allows us to determine the relative contributions of the climate-mediated effects on system evolution. Our results indicate that national-level energy and economic impacts are largely driven by increases in electricity demand that follow from a consistent increase in surface air temperature that is largely robust to the choice of climate model. Other electricity system changes can be equally or more significant in some regions, but these effects are more regionally variable, less significant when aggregated to the national scale, and less robust to the choice of climate model. The findings show that the impacts of climate change on the electricity system can be understood in terms of fewer drivers and with greater certainty at the national level than at the regional level.
- Published
- 2020
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