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The identification of the minimum effective dose is of high importance in the drug development process. In early stage screening experiments, establishing the minimum effective dose can be translated into a model selection based on information criteria. The presented alternative, Bayesian variable selection approach, allows for selection of the minimum effective dose, while taking into account model uncertainty. The performance of Bayesian variable selection is compared with the generalized order restricted information criterion on two dose-response experiments and through the simulations study. Which method has performed better depends on the complexity of the underlying model and the effect size relative to noise.

In this article, we discuss methods to select three different types of genes (treatment related, response related, or both) and investigate whether they can serve as biomarkers for a binary outcome variable. We consider an extension of the joint model introduced by Lin et al. (2010) and Tilahun et al. (2010) for a continuous response. As the model has certain drawbacks in a binary setting, we also present a way to use classical selection methods to identify subgroups of genes, which are treatment and/or response related. We evaluate their potential to serve as biomarkers by applying DLDA to predict the response level.

The objective was to perform a dioxin body burden estimate based on a probabilistic intake assessment of PCDDs, PCDFs and dioxin-like PCBs because of the so-called 1999 'Belgian dioxin incident'. Monte Carlo simulation techniques were used to combine detailed 7-day food intake data on the individual level from a sample of 14-18-year-old adolescents with 'background' and 'incident-related' food contamination data. In background conditions, 3% of the adolescents had an intake <1 pg TEQ kg(-1) bw day(-1), while 85% had <4 pg TEQ kg(-1) bw day(-1). Milk and other dairy products were the basic source of dioxin-like contaminants, while fish constituted the main source at the higher percentiles of intake. During the dioxin incident, the estimated median dioxin intake showed a moderate increase. At the 99th percentile, the highest intake level, and the 95% upper bound uncertainty level, peak body burden-23.73 ng TEQ kg(-1) bw-remained below body burdens that in the experimental animal or in man are accompanied by a population-based observable increase in the incidence of adverse effects. The 1999 Belgian dioxin incident most likely did not affect public health in Belgium in a measurable way, although exceptions remain possible on the individual level.