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This paper investigates climate change impacts on the hydrology and water quality of Brazilian semi-arid reservoirs. An integrated approach coupling climate, hydrological and water quality models was proposed. Five general circulation models (GCMs) and two future scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) were used for the projections. The simulations showed that uncertainty in climate forecast significantly impacted hydrological and water quality outputs. Some scenarios revealed a strong decrease in streamflow and storage volume. On the other hand, 40% of multi-GCM projections indicated reservoir eutrophication. The impacts on hydrology and water quality under SSP5-8.5 were more significant than those under SSP2-4.5. The results also indicated that drought events may be prolonged under climate change, principally at the end of the 21st century for SSP5-8.5, and may significantly increase the total phosphorus concentration. This suggests that tropical semi-arid reservoirs could be more vulnerable to eutrophication in scenarios of climate change than those in other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing number of countries have set ambitious climate targets and recognized the potential of CO2 geological storage. Brazil’s goal is to neutralize carbon emissions by 2050. The Paraná Basin is one of the most favorable onshore sedimentary basins for geological storage of CO2 in Brazil. This extensive sedimentary basin presents a privileged location in the south and southeast regions, where the largest stationary CO2 emitters are concentrated. Our results showed Rio Bonito Formation siliciclastic deposits present pairs of reservoir-seal rocks with adequate thicknesses and depths for stratigraphic CO2 trapping. The screening allowed us to define a favorability map area, which will be the basis for subsequent detailing and characterization studies on the Rio Bonito Formation rocks and the location of CO2 injection sites, thus contributing to the mitigation of the impacts of this gas in climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Araucaria Mixed Forests (AMF) are subtropical conifer-hardwood mixed forests that are part of the Atlantic forest floristic dominion in Brazil and Argentina. The AMF is dominated by the conifer Araucaria angustifolia (hereafter araucaria), accompanied by a diversity of angiosperms. Its distribution largely corresponds to the 13°C isotherm and is associated with overall lower temperature, frost-prone, and wetter climates than neighboring vegetation types. Palynological research and bioclimatic modelling have yielded somewhat conflicting results but suggest intense forest-grassland dynamics, with grasslands possibly dominating the landscape during the drier and colder last glacial maximum. Araucaria is a cultural keystone species whose distribution has been greatly fostered by Amerindian activity in the last few millennia. Angiosperms form a lower layer beneath araucaria canopies, and they seem to be geographically structured into a wetter and colder eastern and a drier and hotter western portion. Araucaria attain large sizes and high longevity but is unable to regenerate under the shade cast by angiosperm canopies and need large-scale disturbances for successfully complete their life-cycles. This cycle has been synthesised in the non-equilibrium Lozenge model of forest dynamics. Regeneration opportunities arise from the frequent multiple treefall gaps produced by the tornado and windstorm-prone climate of subtropical South America and by the grazing-, fire-, and nurse-plant successional dynamics of the forest-grassland mosaic. Dispersal is mediated by a complex web of interactions with birds and mammals. A review of the dynamics of southern Oceanic Temperate Forests indicates that the dynamics of the AMF fits a prevailing pattern in these forests that corresponds to the Lozenge model. Deforestation and degradation by logging and cattle grazing have impacted most of the AMF original range. Similarly to what happened to Agathis australis in New Zealand, the establishment of commercial plantations still need incentives and research to thrive and produce large-scale environmental benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface runoff generation capacity can be modified by land-use and climate changes. Annual runoff volumes have been evaluated in a small watershed of tropical forest (Brazil), using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Firstly, the accuracy of SWAT in runoff predictions has been assessed by default input parameters and improved by automatic calibration, using 20-year observations. Then, the hydrological response under land uses (cropland, pasture and deforested soil) alternative to tropical forest and climate change scenarios has been simulated. SWAT application has showed that, if forest was replaced by crops or pasture, the watershed's hydrological response would not significantly be affected. Conversely, a complete deforestation would slightly increase its runoff generation capacity. Under forecasted climate scenarios, the runoff generation capacity of the watershed will tend to decrease and will not be noticeably different among the representative concentration pathways. Pasture and bare soil will give the lowest and highest runoff coefficients, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pettitt test is widely used in climate change and hydrological analyses. However, studies show difficulties of this test in detecting change points, especially in small samples. This study presents a bootstrap application of the Pettitt test, and compares it numerically with the classical Pettitt test by an extensive Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed test outperforms the classical test in all simulated scenarios. An application of the tests is conducted on the historical series of naturalized flows of the Itaipu Hydroelectric Plant in Brazil, for which several studies have shown a change point in the 1970s. When the series is split into shorter sub-series, to simulate actual situations of small samples, the proposed test is more powerful than the classical Pettitt test in detecting the change point. The proposed test can be an important tool for detecting abrupt changes in water availability, in support of hydroclimatological resources decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Representations of precipitation from CMIP5 models over the 1950–1999 period in hydrographic basins that are relevant to the Brazilian electricity sector are evaluated in this study. The majority of ensemble members adequately represented seasonal variability, although they differed about the patterns of high-frequency interannual variation. The models did not adequately represent seasonal-scale precipitation in the southern region of Brazil. Relative to other models, the CNRM_CM5 and HadGEM2-ES models demonstrated good seasonal and interannual representation over most basins, while the global CanESM2, GFDL-ESM2M and IPSL_CM5A-LR models demonstrated relatively poor performance. The models concur on the impact of the RCP8.5 scenario in the Southeast/Midwest and South sectors over the period 2015–2044, suggesting that precipitation will decrease up to 15% in the basin supplying the Furnas hydropower plant and by 12% in the basin supplying the Itaipú plant, which represents 25% of the hydroelectric production in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A semi-distributed hydrological model is developed, calibrated and validated against unregulated river discharge from the Tocantins-Araguaia River Basin, northern Brazil. Climate change impacts are simulated using projections from the 41 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models for the period 2071–2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Scenario results are compared to a 1971–2000 base line. Most climate models suggest declines in mean annual discharge although some predict increases. A large proportion suggest that the dry season experiences large declines in discharge, especially during the transition to the rising water period. Most models (>75%) suggest declines in annual minimum flows. This may have major implications for both current and planned hydropower schemes. There is greater uncertainty in projected changes in wet season and annual maximum discharges. Two techniques are investigated to reduce uncertainty in projections, but neither is able to provide more confidence in the simulated changes in discharge.Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor F. Hattermann [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]