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In December 2015, China joined 190 plus nations at Paris in committing to the goal of limiting the rise in global average temperature to ‘well below’ 2°C. Carbon budget analysis indicates that goal will require not only that the European Union and US reduce their emissions by greater than 80% by 2050, but that China at least comes close to doing so as well, if any budget is to be left over for the rest of the world (RoW). Given that RoW emissions are, and will come from, low-income and emerging nations, China’s emission reduction potential is of no small consequence. In this paper, we use the Kaya identity to back out changes in the drivers of CO2 emissions, including gross domestic product (GDP), energy intensity (E/GDP) and the carbon content of energy (C/E), the latter two calculated to be consistent with China’s long-term GDP growth rate forecasts and specified 2050 CO2 emission reduction targets. Our results suggest that even achieving China’s highly optimistic renewable energy targets will be very far from sufficient to reduce China’s CO2 emissions from 9.1 Gt it emitted in 2015 to much below 3 Gt by 2050. Even reducing its emissions to 5 Gt will be challenging, yet this falls far short of what is needed if the world is to meet its ‘well below’ 2°C commitment. Key policy insights Under the Paris Agreement there is great pressure on China to very substantially reduce its emissions by 2050. While China has attached great importance to renewables and nuclear energy development, even achieving the most optimistic targets would not be sufficient to reduce China’s emissions from 9.1 Gt in 2015 to much below 3 Gt by 2050. China’s emission reduction potential falls far short of what is needed if the world is to meet its Paris ‘well below’ 2°C commitment, even if the EU and US reduce their emissions to zero by 2050. Emission cuts consistent with the Paris Agreement will require that China and the world give much greater weight to advancing research and development of scalable low-, zero- and negative-carbon sources and technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The clean development mechanism (CDM) could play an important role in the power generation sector of developing countries and emerging economies by providing additional revenue to support the diffusion of renewable energy sources (RES). This paper investigates the contribution of the CDM to deployment of renewable electricity projects in China and India, and highlights the main potentialities and limitations of this mechanism for their support. The outcome of our analysis shows many differences and similarities in the way and scale of CDM projects for renewable electricity generation have been implemented in the two countries. In both cases, the CDM has made a contribution to greening investments in the power generation sector, which is still largely dominated by subcritical coal-fuelled power plants. Nonetheless, some major problems still remain and they are mainly related to the distribution of projects across different technologies and to the environmental integrity of the mechanism. In view of the likely revision of the CDM in the post-Kyoto period, we find that the differentiation of the credit generation rate of different project categories could bring some level of improvement without significantly altering the current system functionality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]