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Ethiopia's agricultural development strategies bypassed smallholder mechanisation for decades. Mechanisation returned to the policy agenda in 2013 but recent pro-mechanisation rhetoric lacks operational commitments. Based on primary and secondary data, this paper traces the policies and policy narratives that have led to low mechanisation, and finds that mechanisation was deprioritised on the grounds that Ethiopia is labour- and land-abundant, but short of capital. With policy encouraging multiple cropping, but farming vulnerable to climate change, the paper argues for the development of a market for mechanisation, including mechanisation service provision through private and cooperative agents, to enhance smallholder access to mechanisation and unleash human energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This review paper focuses on the question of what will happen to the future water resource system of Grand Renaissance Dam of Ethiopia based on the projected hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile River basin. For this, the hydrological extremes, the baseline hydrological trends, and projected hydrological extremes of the Upper Blue Nile River basin were reviewed from various published and unpublished sources. Changes in the future hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile River basin due to climate change or any other natural or manmade modification of the river basin deserve concerted attention in the future water resources system of the Grand Renaissance Dam of Ethiopia, because the water resources of the dam mainly depend on the water potential nature of the Upper Blue Nile River basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the coming decades, ensuring food security is one of the greatest challenges in Ethiopia. Most Ethiopians practice mixed agricultural activity which represents about 33.88% of the country's GDP. Therefore, this paper is devoted to reviewing the existing agricultural challenges and future prospects in the country. Majorly, it focused on the shortage of farmland, climate change, fragmentation and degradation of farmland, unevenly distributed constructions and urbanizations, pests, lack of integration among stakeholders, political instabilities, and its prospects. Despite the numerous challenges, Ethiopia has marvelous opportunities like the commercialization of fruit, vegetable, and ornamental plant productions. The country has also ample opportunity in the areas of animal production that ranks first in Africa in the number of livestock heads. The country has a huge labor force and water resources. It is proximity to Middle East markets is valuable to transport fresh products within a short period of time to the needed destination. However, Ethiopia's current fruit, vegetable, and animal production for export are very limited because of fragmented cultivation and lack of quality. The country has also a great variety of climate and soil types that enables it to grow a diversity of horticultural crops. Therefore, emphasizing agriculture in Ethiopia requires the political as well as the economic commitment of all parties concerned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of climate change is increasingly affecting the daily lives of poor farmer households. An understanding of the social dimension profoundly shapes the way in which policy-makers develop adaptation policies. This paper investigates the influence of components of social capital on the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies using data from rural households in Ethiopia. First, principal component analysis (PCA) was performed on the dataset of components of social capital to construct composite indicators for measuring farmers' social capital. Second, the logit model was employed to investigate the influence of components of social capital on adopting climate change adaptation strategies. The results suggest that institutional trust positively influences climate change adaptation decisions. On the contrary, bonding social capital negatively affects the adoption decision. The following implications are worthy of consideration for improving farmers' adoption of adaptation strategies: improving the institutions' communication and sharing of information with farmers and investing in programmes that build links across groups in communities and up to those in authority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The combined effects of climate and land cover changes influence hydrologic responses of a basin in an offsetting or synergistic manner depending on the nature and severity of the changes. As such, estimating the impacts of these environmental changes on hydrologic responses is crucial for planning water resources management. However, such a comprehensive study is missing in most basins of Ethiopia, particularly in the Dhidhessa River basin (DRB). The aim of this study is, therefore, to quantify the combined and separate impacts of land cover and climate changes on multiple hydrologic variables for the DRB. The Calibrated Soil and Water Analysis Tool (SWAT) model and statistical techniques were integrated for this study. Quantifying the separate and combined effects of land cover and climate changes on multiple hydrologic responses at a local scale, and determining the relative contribution of the changes are the strength of this study. The result indicated better performance of the SWAT model in simulating water balance components for the DRB. Significant changes in hydrologic responses were observed in response to the land cover changes, and the increasing trends of temperature and rainfall observed during the last 30 years in DRB. The result showed increasing actual evapotranspiration (AET), streamflow, and surface runoff while decreasing groundwater recharge. Surface runoff was more affected by land cover change than by climate change, whereas streamflow and AET were more affected by climate change than land cover change during the last 30 years in the basin. The combined effects of land cover and climate changes played an offsetting effect on groundwater recharge and AET. Overall, the simulated hydrologic responses will have negative effects on water resource availability and agricultural production in the basin and the surroundings. Therefore, implementing integrated watershed management strategies, such as soil and water conservation and afforestation, could minimize the negative impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 1970s, the Government of Ethiopia has implemented villagization, whereby nomadic pastoralist groups are supported to develop (more) sedentary lifestyles and livelihoods. Villagization has been officially promoted to encourage diversification from livestock herding to agricultural cultivation, and to fulfil basic needs through infrastructure and services. From the late 2000s, villagization was reintroduced for arid and semi-arid regions as a strategy for adaptation to climate change, as part of the country's green growth agenda. The aim of this paper is to evaluate to what extent this phase of villagization has contributed to adaptation strategies among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities, based on an empirical analysis of four villagised sites in the Middle Awash Valley using qualitative data collected between 2014 and 2018. Perceptions and experiences of villagization varied across individuals, households, villages, and districts. While villagization has generally delivered infrastructure and services, and offered income diversification to those able to access irrigated agriculture, its implementation has been partial and uneven, and it has reproduced previous problems of resource scarcity while creating new risks and vulnerabilities. We argue that villagization may play a role in some aspects of adaptation, if programmes address the drivers of livelihood change, and embed equity and rights. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a comparative study of two distinctively different hydrological models for simulating future discharge response in climate change scenarios. The mostly agricultural Sore watershed (1117 km²), Ethiopia, was used as a case study. Outputs from the climate models REMO (Regional Model) and CGCM3.1 (Canadian Global Climate Model) were used as inputs for hydrological models after statistical downscaling. Data from the REMO A1B and B1 and CGCM3.1 A1B scenarios were selected to represent future conditions. The models used in this study, the physically based distributed hydrological model WaSiM (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model)-ETH and the conceptual model HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning)-Light, were applied to simulate the flow conditions for a reference period (1990–1997) and a future period (2011–2050). The results confirm that the uncertainty caused by using different climate model inputs is larger than the uncertainty caused by using different hydrological models. In both hydrological models, the future peak discharge decreases in the future climate change scenarios regardless of the climate model and emission scenario considered. Whereas peak discharge shifted from August/September for the reference period to June in the future with CGCM3.1, discharge generally shifted to month earlier for both climate models. For low-flow conditions, the HBV-Light model always computed slightly higher values than the WaSiM-ETH model. This study demonstrates that both the hydrological and climate models were consistent concerning the overall direction of change, regardless of magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and variability severely affect rural livelihoods and agricultural productivity, yet they are causes of stress vulnerable rural households have to cope with. This paper investigated farming communities' vulnerability to climate change and climate variability across 34 agricultural-based districts in Tigray, northern Ethiopia. It considered 24 biophysical and socio-economic indicators to reflect the three components of climate change vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. A framework was used that combines exposure and sensitivity to produce potential impact, which was then compared with adaptive capacity in order to yield an overall measure of vulnerability. The classic statistical technique of factor analysis was applied to generate weights for the different indicators and an overall vulnerability index was constructed for the 34 rural districts. The analysis revealed that the districts deemed to be most vulnerable to climate change and variability overlapped with the most vulnerable populations. The most exposed farming communities showed a relatively low capacity for adaptation. The study further showed that vulnerability to climate change and variability is basically linked to social and economic developments. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper presents an assessment of smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change, its impacts on agricultural production and adaptive responses in the central highlands of Ethiopia. The findings show that increased temperature and decreased rainfall are widely held perceptions; all respondents stated that they had observed increase in temperature and decrease in annual and seasonal rainfall amounts. The major impacts of climate change on local livelihoods as reported by respondents include decline in the length of growing period, increased crop damage by insects and pests, and increased severity of weed infestation. Some respondents also reported an increase in the incidence of livestock diseases. The adaptive responses by the smallholder farmers to the perceived or experienced climate change include adjustments in crop and livestock production activities, and investments in sustainable land management at household and community levels. Despite the range of autonomous adaptive responses adopted, climate change is negatively affecting smallholder agriculture, and thus rural livelihoods, in the study area, indicating the need for planned adaptation interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improving farm-level use of multiple climate change adaptation strategies is essential for improving household food security, particularly against a backdrop of a high risk of climatic shocks. However, the empirical foundation for understanding how farm households choose multiple climate-smart practices is far from being established. In this paper, the effects of household, farm and climatic factors on farmers' decisions to use multiple adaptation practices are analysed. A survey of 921 farm households and 4312 farm plots combined with historical climate data in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia is explored using multivariate and random effect ordered probit econometric models. Results show agricultural production can be characterized by complementarities between adaptation practices. This result is important to designing packages of adaptation practices. The econometric results confirm that social capital, tenure security and climatic shocks are important determinants of the choice of the type and number of adaptation practices. The results suggest the need for carefully designing combinations of adaptation strategies based on agro-ecological conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: During 1999-2000, great parts of Ethiopia experienced a period of famine which was recognised internationally. The aim of this paper is to characterise the epidemiology of mortality of the period, making use of individual, longitudinal population-based data from the Butajira demographic surveillance site and rainfall data from a local site. Methods: Vital statistics and household data were routinely collected in a cluster sample of 10 sub-communities in the Butajira district in central Ethiopia. These were supplemented by rainfall and agricultural data from the national reporting systems. Results: Rainfall was high in 1998 and well below average in 1999 and 2000. In 1998, heavy rains continued from April into October, in 1999 the small rains failed and the big rains lasted into the harvesting period. For the years 1998-1999, the mortality rate was 24.5 per 1,000 person-years, compared with 10.2 in the remainder of the period 1997-2001. Mortality peaks reflect epidemics of malaria and diarrhoeal disease. During these peaks, mortality was significantly higher among the poorer. Conclusions: The analyses reveal a serious humanitarian crisis with the Butajira population during 1998-1999, which met the CDC guideline crisis definition of more than one death per 10,000 per day. No substantial humanitarian relief efforts were triggered, though from the results it seems likely that the poorest in the farming communities are as vulnerable as the pastoralists in the North and East of Ethiopia. Food insecurity and reliance on subsistence agriculture continue to be major issues in this and similar rural communities. Epidemics of traditional infectious diseases can still be devastating, given opportunities in nutritionally challenged populations with little access to health care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An understanding of how local knowledge of climate change converges with science-based assessment is important to effectively support adaptation decision making. This study explores farmers' cognition of climate change and their adaptation in Ethiopia. Household and community level data on socio-economic, institutional, climatic and adaptation variables were collected. In addition, we obtained long-term historical meteorological data from local weather stations for consecutive 31 years. Mean and percentage computation, chi-square test, standard precipitation index and qualitative content methods were applied for data analysis. The analytical results of obtained past weather data revealed that the climate parameters have significantly changed over time, and highly varied across locations and these variations were substantiated by farmers' experiences. There is a high level of agreement between climatological data and farmers' observation that the onset of the rainy season is now shifting markedly, accompanied by an increasing dry spell with greater implication for rainfed systems. In contrast, there is a significant divergence concerning the length of the growing season which is explained by the strong influence of the onset rather than end of the rainy season. As a result, a range of strategies were implemented by farmers to fight against climate change dynamics, short to long term. The study concluded how diversification of climate communication outlets by combining local cognition can play a unique role in promoting risk communication. As a result, risk cognition as a function of socio-psychological factor should be combined into comprehensive science-based consensus that impact decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study is to analyze future drought characteristics in meteorological, hydrology, and agricultural droughts under the impact of changing climate in the Kessie watershed, upper Blue Nile Basin, using three drought indices; Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) and Agricultural Standardized Precipitation Index (aSPI), respectively. The study used baseline data (1985–2014) and future (2041–2100) downscaled from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP-6) based on the three Global Climate Models (GCMs) projections under two scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) (SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) with well-calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to simulate future streamflow for two future time horizons 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). Based on the yearly time scale, our results indicate that droughts of a high magnitude and rising frequency would affect most of the research area. These droughts will be either meteorological (RDI), agricultural (aSPI), or hydrological (SDI). Short-term agricultural and hydrological droughts are also anticipated to occur more frequently. The projected increases in frequency and trend of agricultural and hydrological droughts in this area are greater due to the anticipated drop in annual rainfall and the larger increase in mean annual temperature in the middle of Kessie. Furthermore, compared to hydrological and agricultural droughts, meteorological drought is less vulnerable to climate change; but, as the accumulation period lengthens, a stronger association develops between hydrological and agricultural droughts. These findings may be useful for water resources management and future planning for mitigation and adaptation to the climate change impact in the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of climate change (CC) and land-use/land-cover (LULC) change on water resources poses a major threat globally. This study investigates the separate and combined responses of CC and LULC change on water balance in Gidabo watershed, Ethiopia, using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), Cellular Automata-Markov Chain, and regional climate models. CC projection under RCP 4.5 and hydrological modeling show a significant decline in mean annual surface runoff (Q), baseflow (BF), water yield (WY), percolation (PC), and evapotranspiration (ET) during mid-century (2027–2056) as well as late-century (2061–2090) compared to the baseline period (1988–2018) data, largely due to decline in rainfall. Likewise, under RCP 8.5 scenario, the modeling results show a decrease in Q, BF, WY, PC, and ET during these periods. The LULC change (often associated with an expansion in cultivated and urban areas and a reduction in evergreen forest and grassland) alone leads to a positive synergy with an increase in mean annual Q and WY and a negative synergy with a decrease in BF, PC and ET during the period 2018 to 2075. The combined effects of climate and LULC changes have also shown a decline in Q, BF, WY, PC and ET. Overall, the climate change impacts significantly the future Q and WY. However, the combined effect of climate and LULC changes on BF, PC, and ET is more prominent than their separate impacts and it underlines the significance of this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is a complicated natural hazard that has far-reaching social and environmental impacts. In Ethiopia's diverse agro ecological zones, drought remains a severe challenge and problem. Livestock rising is one of the agricultural sub-sectors that provide income and livelihood to around one-third of African inhabitants and accounts for 30–50 percent of agricultural GDP. Pastoralists on the Ethiopia-Kenya-Somalia border endured extreme suffering, including the loss of nearly 80% of their cattle and huge migration out of drought-stricken areas. Drought can cause severe economic hardship and stress for farmers and local economies, like; lost productivity, population reduction, and the trauma of witnessing livestock, crops, soil, and native vegetation damage. Between 1990 and 2000, and 2001-2002/03, drought-related animal death rates in the Somali region increased by 60% and 80% of the entire cattle population, respectively. Drought has the greatest immediate effects on farmers, including depletion of water resources, crop failure, and an increase in food prices, ill health, livestock output losses and death, and a decline in livestock prices in the Borana zone. Drought adaptation and mitigation measures depending on geography and livestock system may improve the study's trajectory in the future if further review is done. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the socio-economic impacts of land acquisition for large-scale agricultural investments (LSAIs) are well researched, studies exploring the impact of LSAIs on climate change vulnerability of the displaced smallholders are scanty or none. This study, therefore, intends to bridge this knowledge gap. It empirically investigates the impact of LSAIs on the climate change vulnerability of displaced smallholders. Data was collected from 521 sample households (49% displaced and 51% non-displaced households) using the face-to-face survey data collection method in the Oromia region. Principal component analysis (PCA) and propensity score matching (PSM) methods were applied to analyze the data. The results indicate that LSAIs have increased the vulnerability of displaced smallholder farmers to climate change shocks by up to three-fold compared to the control households, which is significant at 1%. The finding implies that policymakers should consider the implications of land deals on the vulnerability of the displaced smallholders and design appropriate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts. The empirical finding from this study has filled the existing information gap in the areas of climate change vulnerability of the displaced farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A field survey was conducted to determine the distribution and importance of early blight of tomato in East Shewa, Central Ethiopia. A total of 140 tomato fields were inspected in 4 districts (Adama, Lome, Dugda, and Bora). The associations of early blight incidence and severity with independent variables were evaluated. Disease incidence was found higher in Dugda (72.19%) and Bora (62.28%) districts. The highest mean disease severity was 31.39% in Dugda and 26.09% in Bora district, while the lowest was recorded in Adama (14.71%) district. In reduced multiple variable models, early blight percentage severity index >25% showed a high probability of association with all parameters. Logistic regression analyses of disease severity revealed that sometraits were found the most significant variables. Overall, proper weed management practices, crop rotation with non-solanaceous hosts, and other related farm practices should be carried out to reduce the impact of early blight on tomatoes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beekeeping offers income-generating opportunities for rural households but is threatened by climate change and variability. Adaptation strategies are assessed through semi-structured interviews focus groups, key informants and personal observation: in Ada Berga District, beekeepers have adopted supplementary feeding, modern hives, planting and hive shading to mitigate climatic impacts. A multivariate probit model (MVP) suggests that choices made in combining various adaptation strategies depend on socio-economic, institutional and demographic factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smallholder farmers in Ethiopia largely depend on rainfed agriculture and they are highly vulnerable to climate change with few options to offset them. Adaptation to climate change requires innovative measures to be shared and adopted. This paper analyses willingness to pay (WTP) for rainfall-based index insurance by farmers in Ethiopia to shield against the adverse consequences of climate change. Rainfall data for the study area were used to compute Standardized Precipitation Indices to serve as drought monitoring tool and trigger response actions. A bivariate probit model was estimated to scrutinize factors associated with WTP. The results indicate that smallholder farmers associate positive value to indexed insurance. Those farmers in agro-ecology with moisture stress, who are better educated, worried about risk associated with weather and those who have better access to credit are more likely to pay for weather-indexed insurance. However, households that have better non-farm income and remittance are less likely to pay for the indexed insurance. The mean WTP was found to be Birr 119.90 per year for a hectare of maize-cultivated land. However, a number of challenges remain to be addressed for effective index-based insurance, which includes reliable weather data, strong marketing channel and intermediary for the insurance products. Therefore, any intervention which aims at transferring weather-based risks through rainfall index-based insurance need to consider the above features to identify the early adopters of the product. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The study objective is to assess stakeholders' roles and linkages in quality coffee production and the implications for adaptation to climate change in Yirgacheffe District, southern Ethiopia. Stakeholder analysis was performed to identify and characterize stakeholders based on their power and interest criteria and to assess their linkages and roles in quality coffee production. Additionally, a household survey with coffee farmers (stratified into quality coffee farmers and conventional coffee farmers) was conducted to assess coffee farmers' level of satisfaction of with various forms of support provided to them by the stakeholders. The stakeholders analysis revealed that stakeholders possessed different degrees of power and interest in quality coffee production. While government agencies were more powerful in decisions and actions related to quality coffee production, coffee farmers (key actors) were less powerful. The household survey revealed that quality coffee farmers tended to have stronger linkages with stakeholders than conventional coffee farmers. The authors conclude that quality coffee production was the result of efforts from multiple stakeholders, and they suggest that policy interventions to enhance collaborative quality coffee production through empowering stakeholders in decision-making processes in the coffee value chain are important to make the coffee-based livelihoods sustainable and resilient to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beekeeping contributes to income generation. The honey is also consumed at home and used for medicine. Climate change and environmental degradation threaten beekeeping. Quantitative data on climatic effects and responses collected using semi-structured interviews and qualitative data from focus groups and key informants were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics and content analysis, respectively. Respondents reported reduced honey production, colonies absconding, reduced pollen and nectar forage, reduced occupation rate of swarm and reduced comb experienced in their locality. Respondents attributed these to climate change or variability; one-third of respondents experienced all of these. There was a statistically significant difference among agro-ecologies to the combined effects imposed by rainfall, temperature and drought. Information on the influence of climate variability should help to design and implement intervention to improve productivity and livelihoods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resource conflicts and human–environment conflicts are active around the globe. As planetary, carbon-induced climate change necessitates new responses, the policies and practices of decarbonisation add new dimensions to existing conflicts. Using examples from two nations with ambitious aims for the decarbonisation of their economies, Ethiopia and Morocco, we illustrate how unintended conflicts and adverse ecosystem impacts arise when nature cannot participate in decision-making processes. Transition to low-carbon economies, we argue, generates and exacerbates multi-dimensional conflicts of interest between state and society, as well as between society and ecosystems. Taking an interdisciplinary perspective, we suggest establishing procedural rights of nature via (1) stronger consideration of scientific expertise, (2) an enhancement of environmental safeguards and (3) making funding linked to Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) conditional upon participation of nature in decision-making processes through legal guardians. We use counterfactuals as a method to demonstrate how procedural rights of nature, in the cases of Ethiopia and Morocco, could change green economy and climate mitigation projects, making them less conflict-prone and more sustainable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing climate change is vital to exert context-specific responses to allay its adverse effects. The purpose of this study is to examine the perception and determinants of agricultural technology adaptation of teff producers to climate change in North Shewa zone, Ethiopia. Data were collected from 378 farming households through a multistage and simple proportional sampling procedure. Both descriptive and econometric analyses were used in this study. A Heckman probit model and a multinomial logit (MNL) model are used to examine the determinants of perception and adaptation to climate change, respectively. The results of the Heckman probit model revealed that gender, farm experience, access to extension services and information access were found to have a significant influence on the probability of farmers to perceive and/or adapt to climate change. The multinomial logit models showed that education, gender of the household head being male, marital status, farming experience, income, access to information, livestock ownership, tenure status, and access to extension are the main factors that increase adaptive capacity. However, distance to the nearest market and family size negatively and significantly affect the decision to adopt various agricultural technologies. This study recommends that, Future development initiatives should focus on enhencing perception and scaling up climate change adaption technology, which calls for a public-private collaboration and a shared vision of all potential stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across sub-Saharan Africa, climate change is exacerbating pest problems for smallholder farmers. Push-pull technology (PPT) is an agronomic package designed to reduce the effects of Striga and stemborers on maize and sorghum production. As PPT is promoted in new areas, including Ethiopia, there is a need to review the evidence that the technology helps farmers mitigate or adapt to climate change. Furthermore, proponents need to consider whether tasks associated with establishing and maintaining PPT may worsen existing gender burdens. We assess whether PPT is climate- and gender-smart based on a review of 40 publications that included field experiments or farmer surveys. We find strong evidence that intercropping with drought-tolerant Desmodium effectively reduces Striga abundance and enhances grain yield. Although gender influences PPT adoption, there is a lack of knowledge about additional labor requirements for women. We recommend research focusing on 1) the efficacy of PPT under different climate conditions, 2) optimal timing of planting push and pull species; 3) evaluation of fodder outputs; 4) water requirements associated with establishment; and 5) implications for gender burden across cultural contexts. We suggest a participatory approach that integrates farmers' perspectives to support climate mitigation, adaptation, and gender equity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of environmental change on human migration is complex. Despite major strides in understanding the environment's role in migration processes, uncertainties associated with multi-scale factor interactions and their influence on migration still persist. This study aims to (a) understand how soil degradation and rainfall changes – in combination with socio-economic factors – in the northern Ethiopian highlands contribute to human decisions to migrate; and (b) identify barriers for adopting local policy measures to reduce migration needs. Therefore, we integrate place-based research with literature findings and the participatory development of a Bayesian network (BN) involving local policy makers and representatives from both villages and NGOs. Our results show two major influential factors that affect environment-related migration: (a) the sufficiency of a household's agricultural production and (b) non-farm activities. According to our participatory BN, we conclude that environmental changes increase migration, either through high migration needs due to low agricultural production and/or through increased non-farm activities, which increases the necessary financial means to enable migration. We conclude that contradicting policy programs greatly hinder local measures to prevent soil degradation, potentially fueling migration, and that bottom-up and locally adapted strategies are particularly promising for sustainable land management in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given a huge resource base, numerous product and service functions, bamboo can top many of the species recommended for integrated rural development in the context of climate change. Despite this potential, there is gap in knowledge and innovation to make optimum use of this resource. This study provides insights into the need for and processes of institutional and technological innovation to materialize bamboo's potential. The study is based on the theory of systems of innovation and empirical data collected from bamboo farmers, enterprises and 26 experts. The results demonstrate that traditional knowledge and technical skills in rural areas are key sources of knowledge for product innovation and climate change adaptation. The study reveals that enterprises have a primary role both in the generation of innovation and the production of value-added products. Institutional actors (GOs and NGOs) play an intermediary role in promoting bamboo sector innovation through training provision, policy development and stimulating social learning among actors. The study reveals that further effort is needed to upgrade the capacity of farmers and firms to produce globally competitive products. Therefore, development should be geared towards establishing and nurturing a bamboo sector innovation system which facilitates entry into the global value chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Replicable Business Models (RBMs) focus on reducing economic coordination, opportunism, and price risks but pay less attention to risks from natural shocks. A simulation game was designed to capture the impact of variable rainfall on teff production and commercialization in South Wollo Zone, Amhara region, Ethiopia. The game captured farmers' decision-making for three rainfall scenarios and three levels of market prices. The results showed that variable rainfall had little impact on the levels of teff production or commercialization. The exception was the scenario where rainfall failed in both crop seasons; however, the probability of this scenario was low. If rains failed in the first wet season (Belg) or if rains in the second and main wet season (Meher) were late, farmers maintained teff production by increasing the area planted and the share of teff that received inorganic fertilizer. Resource constraints – particularly shortage of land – limited farmers' production of teff. Despite these constraints, the simulation revealed that farmers will increase teff sales in response to higher prices. The risk simulation game provides a diagnostic tool to evaluate the performance of the RBM and the potential for smallholder commercialization in the face of natural shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Attempts to mitigate global climate change have brought forestry into focus. Forests absorb carbondioxide from the atmosphere, alleviate global warming and contribute for rural livelihoods. To realize these benefits, there is a need to conserve the existing forests and establish new forests by using different restoration techniques. Information is scarce in Ethiopia on the carbon stock efficiency of the different forest types. Therefore, this study focused on comparing biomass and soil carbon stock potential of a natural forest, exclosure and Eucalyptus plantation. Primary and secondary data were collected and analysed using allometric equations. The results of this study stated that the total mean carbon stock for exclosure was 131.6 ± 45.5 t ha−1, for plantation 160.1 ± 35.8 t ha−1 and for natural forest 195.3 ± 58.3 t ha−1. The carbon stocks in each pool exhibited distinct patterns between the forest types. The above ground, below ground and soil organic carbon stock, increased in the natural forests and plantation, while the litter carbon stock showed decreasing towards the exclosure. Generally, the total natural forests store high amount of carbon and can play an important role in climate change mitigation. The carbon pool variation between different forest types was significant at (P <.05); however, there was no significance difference between forest types by aboveground and belowground biomass. From the main findings of this study, it is possible to conclude that climate change mitigation measures should consider expanding exclosure with the same priority as conserving natural forest and increasing plantation forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rural households engaged in the primary sector are vulnerable to climate shocks. The adaptation strategies are supposed to be locale specific, determined by biophysical and socio-economic factors and adoption is contingent on the results from vulnerability assessments. This study is an assessment of local level vulnerability of three heterogeneous groups of selected rural households in South Gondar zone in Ethiopia's Amhara region. The study analyses the effects of climate change induced shocks on livelihoods using the LVI-IPCC framework along with an econometric technique to determine factors responsible for variations across households. The study corroborates earlier results that rural households are adversely impacted by climate shocks. The poor non-off-farm diversified rural households are highly vulnerable in comparison to those households adopting an off-farm diversification strategy. Irrigation, improvements in access to water, health and other rural infrastructure are also factors reducing vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has adversely affected the livelihoods of people in Ethiopia since a large proportion of the population is heavily dependent on agriculture as their adaptive capacities are perceived to be below. Therefore, this study aimed to identify determinants of farmer adaptation strategies with their costs and benefits of each adaptation strategy. The data were collected from 155 farm households using a random sampling method through semistructured questionnaires. The result of the multivariate probit model revealed that the likelihood of farmers to adopt adjustment of planting date, changing crop varieties, intercropping, crop rotation, irrigation, and minimum tillage were 51.6%, 61.9%, 56.1%, 38.1%, 10.3%, and 27.1%, respectively. The joint likelihood of using all adaptation strategies was 4.2%, while their failure to adopt all the adaptation strategies was 9.8%. Among the given adaptation options, intercropping, adjusting planting dates, crop rotation, and changing crop varieties are economically viable climate adaptation strategies. Regarding the intensity of adaptation, 78% of sampled respondents were used more than one adaptation option, and their NPV and BCR were higher when they used at least one adaptation option. Farmers who did not adopt any adaptation options were able to receive the lowest income per unit production. The study recommends that households should use multiple combinations of adaptation practices rather than the use of a single adaptation option. Thus, the government and stakeholders must provide educational and extension service, training, and updated climate information to smallholder crop producers to use and select the best and combination of adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on river discharge in the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia, is assessed using five MIKE SHE hydrological models, six CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios for the period 2071–2100. Hydrological models vary in their spatial distribution and process representations of unsaturated and saturated zones. Very good performance is achieved for 1975–1999 (NSE: 0.65–0.8; r: 0.79–0.93). GCM-related uncertainty dominates variability in projections of high and mean discharges (mean: –34% to +55% for RCP4.5, – 2% to +195% for RCP8.5). Although GCMs dominate uncertainty in projected low flows, inter-hydrological model uncertainty is considerable (RCP4.5: –60% to +228%, RCP8.5: –86% to +337%). Analysis of variance uncertainty attribution reveals that GCM-related uncertainty occupies, on average, 68% of total uncertainty for median and high flows and hydrological models no more than 1%. For low flows, hydrological model uncertainty occupies, on average, 18% of total uncertainty; GCM-related uncertainty remains substantial (average: 28%). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Though climate change is a global agenda since the last few decades, local and regional changes are not well documented in third-world nations. Therefore, understanding the local circumstances of climate change is vital to exert context specific responses to allay its adverse effects. This study hence assessed small holder farmers' perception and response mechanisms to climate change and their determinants in Tekeze lowland goat and sorghum livelihood zone, Northeast Ethiopia. Data collected from 260 sample respondents were analyzed in descriptive statistics and econometric model. Results revealed that 86.5% of the respondents observed changes in main climatic patterns, whereas 92.3% of them recognized variability in daily weather. Indeed, 76.8% and 83.5% of respondents perceived a rising temperature and decreasing rainfall, respectively. This finding is in line with the regression results of meteorological data recorded for 20 study years in the area. Among respondents who perceived the climate change, nearly two-third were responded through crop, livestock and nonagriculture-based livelihood initiatives. The probit model also discovered that educational status, farm/nonfarm income, extension contact, access to climate information and training were significant factors behind farmers' response decision. As a result, future development interventions should provide prominent training and extension, local meteorological service and agricultural inputs on top of creating nonagricultural income generating opportunities, would play significant role in climate change adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainwater harvesting has been known and widely practiced for many centuries, especially during the dry season for a different purpose. The increase of agricultural economy of the country is extremely exposed to weather and climate effects. Decrease of crop production in dry areas is linked to the water (runoff, evaporation and overindulgence use). The objective of this manuscript is to review the status of rainwater harvesting (RWH) technology and practices in sustaining agricultural production in Ethiopia. The in-situ and ex-situ RWH techniques have shown a significant impact on improved soil moisture, runoff and ground water recharge and increased agricultural production, which, in turn, reduce risks and deliver positive impacts on other ecosystems. The implementation of thousands of indicated above structures has been also confined with a range of problems and challenges. In the eastern part of Ethiopia, water shortage and lack of improved technology were the main problems, therefore practicing water harvesting and supplying improved water harvesting technologies providing extended service regularly for farmers should be practiced in the future. Therefore, from the point of view of water conservation, both internal and external catchment-based RWH had the eminent potential of mitigating rainfall-related crop production risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and variability adversely affect smallholder farmers in developing countries, including Ethiopia. In response, farmers are adopting various adaptation strategies. However, there is a paucity of studies examining whether or not these responses benefit farmers in increasing crop productivity. Cognizant of this fact and its policy importance, this study empirically analyzes the impact of adaptation strategies on crop productivity in northwest Ethiopia. We collected data through household survey questionnaire, focus group discussion and key informant interview. We also analyzed time-series climate data to see how crop yield responds to climate variability. The empirical model employs the endogenous switching regression. Climate information and distance to market are validated as instrumental variables. The model revealed that farmers who adopted adaptation strategies would have gained lower yield if they had not adopted them; and those who did not adopt a strategy would have gained higher yield than if they had. Improved seed, contact with development agents (DAs), urea, compost and rainfall are significantly associated with the likelihood of increasing yield. The results also show systematic difference where age is inversely related with adapters and vice versa for non-adapters. Hence, adaptation interventions should consider these heterogeneities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Faba bean (Vicia faba L.) is not only an important cash crop but also is considered as a promising crop, which adapts to climate change hence feed future generations. Its high protein content and efficient atmospheric nitrogen-fixing ability makes faba bean a vital crop. This study, thus, focused on assessing the importance of faba bean in Ethiopia, specifically at reviewing the status, trend, economic and nutritional values, consumption patterns, environmental importance, and its potential role in the face of climate change. The study was conducted through a critical review of secondary data and published research and analytical reports and presented the findings and implications in Ethiopian context. The analysis revealed that about 4,840,090 tons of faba bean was produced globally on 2,463,966 hectares of land. China (1,803,019 tons), Ethiopia (930,633 tons), Australia (373,605 tons), United Kingdom (302,468 tons) and Germany (188,800 tons) are the top five faba bean producers in 2017. Moreover, the mean yield of faba bean is 1,964.3 kg ha−1 globally. In Ethiopia, there was an average of 41,473.4 tons faba bean export from 2012 to 2016 and an average of 1,995.52 kg ha−1 productivity potential from 2013 to 2017. The economic and nutritional values of faba bean can be promoted through the joint initiative between farmers union to train them, and the government should establish integrated crop markets that provide incentives to the farmers to sell their produce by using the "linking farmers to markets" approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The non-avoidable nature of climate change occurrences and their adverse effects on smallholder farmers' livelihood and food security status calls for urgent interventions. In this study, we used a cross-sectional survey method. Data were collected from 365 sampled households in eastern Ethiopia to identify different climate change adaptation strategies and the associated factors in response to food insecurity. Three-stage probit model was employed for data analysis. Three adaptation strategies, namely: adoption of improved varieties, irrigation usage and intercropping were identified. The study result shows that Shantam, an improved potato variety, is the most widely grown in the study area. Frost, known as wurchi/amadey by its local name, was found to be the worst types of climate change incidence that severely affects potato production in the study area. The analysis of sociodemographic variables showed mixed results on each of the three adaptation strategies. Moreover, the regression revealed paradoxical results whereby irrigation usage and intercropping as climate change adaptation strategies recede the adoption of improved potato varieties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ethiopia is one of the most vulnerable countries experiencing drought and floods as a result of climate variability and change. Climate change in the form of higher temperature, reduced rainfall, and increased rainfall variability reduces crop yield and threatens food security in low income and agriculture-based economies. This study reviews impact of climate change and variability, and climate change adaptation strategies employed at farm level in response to perceived changes in temperature and precipitation. Climate change negatively affects agriculture, nutrition, ground water availability, soil organic matter and soil quality, health conditions, growth and poverty. The survey reveals that Ethiopian farmers adopt many strategies in response to climate change. These strategies include "use of improved crop varieties," "agroforestry practices," "crop diversification," "soil conservation practices," "tree planting," "off-farm activities," "irrigation practices," "adjusting planting dates," "selling of assets," "food aid," and "permanent and temporary migration in search of employment" are the most important adaptation strategies by smallholder farmers. However, "level of education," "gender," "age," "wealth of the head of household," "access to extension and credit," "information and climate social capital," "agroecological settings," and "temperature" all influence farmer's choices; "lack of information on adaptation methods," "financial constraints," and "lack of access to land" as main barriers to adapt climate change and variability. Another investigator also revealed that farmers living in the dry lowland area perceived more change in climate than farmers in the wet lowland area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Community-based watershed development (CBWD) has been implemented in Ethiopia since the last three decades. However, the benefits of these watershed development interventions for climate change adaptation are not well documented. This study, therefore, assesses the contributions of CBWD in reducing farmers’ vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and variability in the northwestern highlands of Ethiopia. Data were collected from systematically selected 157 households using questionnaire. The questionnaire consists of questions on climate, ecosystem and households’ livelihood capital. Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change Livelihood Vulnerability Index (IPCC-LVI) methods were used to generate vulnerability indices. Vulnerability indices computed for three conserved watersheds were compared with one non-conserved watershed using one-way ANOVA test. LVI score for ecosystem related indicators was significantly low for Adef Wuha compared to the non-conserved watershed. Similarly, LVI scores generated from agriculture, wealth and social indicators were low for Tija Baji and Guansa watersheds. On the other hand, the IPCC-LVI result did not show significant differences in exposure; however, sensitivity scores of conserved watersheds were significantly lower compared to the non-conserved. The adaptive capacities of two conserved watersheds (Guansa and Tija Baji) were also significantly lower as compared to the non-conserved. The overall (composite) vulnerability of watersheds generated from both methods (LVI and IPCC-LVI) showed that the conserved watersheds were less vulnerable to climate change compared to the non-conserved. The findings suggest that CBWD is an important strategy to reduce vulnerability of smallholder farmers to the ongoing and future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article describes the process and analyses the results of a project in Ethiopia establishing an innovation platform (IP) as a tool for co-creation from an innovation systems perspective. The results are encouraging, suggesting positive effects both on yields, but more importantly on the capacity and role of participants as communicators and agents of change in the community. The IP seems promising in creating new networks and modes of communication. The importance of good facilitation, commitment by all members from the start, and feedback loops driving the process was found to be essential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hydrological response of catchments with different rainfall patterns was assessed to understand the availability of blue and green water and the impacts of changing precipitation and temperature in the Ethiopian Highlands. Monthly discharge of three small-scale catchments was simulated, calibrated, and validated with a dataset of more than 30 years. Different temperature and precipitation scenarios were used to compare the hydrological responses in all three catchments. Results indicate that runoff reacts disproportionately strongly to precipitation and temperature changes: a 24% increase in precipitation led to a 50% increase in average annual runoff, and an average annual rainfall–runoff ratio that was 20% higher. An increase in temperature led to an increase of evapotranspiration and resulted in a decrease in the rainfall–runoff ratio. But a comparison of combined results with different climate change scenarios shows that downstream stakeholders can expect a higher share of available blue water in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Purpose:The fact that highly vulnerable countries like Ethiopia face far greater challenges from climate change makes agricultural adaptation a top priority. Even though the public agriculture extension system in Ethiopia plays a central role in facilitating and supporting adaptation, very limited information is available on how aware the actual extension agents (EAs) are regarding the issue. Therefore, this research attempts to provide a specific insight on the current level of awareness and understanding of EAs regarding climate change. Methodology:Survey questionnaires and semi-structured key-informant interviews were used to collect primary data from extension agents and decision-makers. Findings:Results indicated that generally EAs had a good perception of climate change as well as its impact on agriculture & natural resource use and availability. Also, there was a consensus among EAs regarding certain changes in weather patterns and the frequency of extreme events. Weaknesses and challenges concerning the level of priority given to climate change and adaptation, capacity-building efforts and access to resources were identified as well. Practical implications:Identified challenges imply the need for a synchronized approach towards climate change adaptation and capacity-building to enhance EAs awareness on the issue. Also, the findings highlight the urgent necessity to prioritize climate change as an extension programming issue and to develop clear mitigation and adaptation approaches. Originality/value:This research is original and highly valuable to identify weaknesses and strengths regarding EAs' awareness of climate change adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study in northern Ethiopia investigated local people's perception of climate change and the role of indigenous silvopastoralism in adaptation to that change. Two hundred and forty respondents participated in a questionnaire survey and group discussions. Local communities perceive climate change in terms of biophysical and socioeconomic indicators. In selecting, evaluating and comparing fodder trees for a climate-resilient silvopastoral system, local farmers used 20 criteria of varying importance and belonging to three categories: animal-based, plant-based and multipurpose. In terms of suitability for climate-resilient silvopastoral system,Ficus thonningiiwas ranked first among the top 10 species of trees with a composite score of 8.7 out of 10, followed byCordia africana,Eucalyptus cameldulensisandRhus natalensis. Locally developed protocols for propagation and use ofF. thonningiihave enabled establishment of a climate-resilient, sustainable silvopastoral system. As this practice combines climate change mitigation and adaptation, silvopastoral practices using locally adaptable species are recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Sustainability of an agricultural system depends on its carbon (C) footprint. Thus, major C-inputs and C-outputs of the smallholder crop-livestock mixed farming systems in Ethiopia were collated and their C-equivalence and sustainability indices (CSI) were computed. C-based inputs increased twofold from the lowest (0.32TgCeq y−1) in 1994 to the highest (0.62TgCeq y−1) in 2010. Similarly, total C-output increased linearly from the lowest (30TgCeq y−1) in 1994 to the highest (62TgCeq y−1) in 2010 and 2011. Livestock contributed much of the C-output. Further, the average rate of increase in C-output from 1994 to 1999 was marginal, i.e., 0.67TgCeq y−1, but the 11-year average rate of increase from 2000 to 2011 was relatively higher, i.e., 2.2TgCeq y−1. The relationship between annual total C-based input and output was strong (r2= 0.88; P < 0.001). The CSI of the smallholder agricultural production systems in Ethiopia was relatively high, with the 18-year average value being ˜110 when compared with other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Climate change knowledge and risk perceptions were examined in farming communities in Southern Ethiopia. Based on multistage probability sampling, data were collected from 2,188 respondents. Most respondents (80%) were concerned about risk of climate change. Variables that predicted knowledge and risk perception for both men and women were frequency of listening to the radio, household size, agroclimatic zone, and educational status. Additionally, age, household wealth, and social institution membership were predictive for women, and frequency of newspaper reading was predictive for men. The high levels of risk perception suggest receptiveness to context-appropriate strategies to reduce potential long-term vulnerability.Environmental Practice 16: 29–36 (2014) [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Seasonal and interannual variation in rainfall can cause massive economic loss for farmers and pastoralists, not only because of deficient total rainfall amounts but also because of long dry spells within the rainy season. The semi-arid to sub-humid mountain climate of the North Ethiopian Highlands is especially vulnerable to rainfall anomalies. In this article, spatio-temporal rainfall patterns are analysed on a regional scale in the North Ethiopian Highlands using satellite-derived rainfall estimates (RFEs). To counter the weak correlation in the dry season, only the rainy season rainfall from March till September is used, responsible for approximately 91% of the annual rainfall. Validation analysis demonstrates that the RFEs are well correlated with the meteorological station (MS) rainfall data, i.e. 85% for RFE 1.0 (1996–2000) and 80% for RFE 2.0 (2001–2006). However, discrepancies indicate that RFEs generally underestimate MS rainfall and the scatter around the trendlines indicates that the estimation by RFEs can be in gross error. A local calibration of RFE with rain gauge information is validated as a technique to improve RFEs for a regional mountainous study area. Slope gradient, slope aspect, and elevation have no added value in the calibration of the RFEs. The estimation of monthly rainfall using this calibration model improved on average by 8%. Based upon the calibration model, annual rainfall maps and an average isohyet map for the period 1996–2006 were constructed. The maps show a general northeast–southwest gradient of increasing rainfall in the study area and a sharp east–west gradient in its northern part. Slope gradient, slope aspect, elevation, easting, and northing were evaluated as explanatory factors for the spatial variability of annual rainfall in a stepwise multiple regression with the calibrated average of RFE 1.0 as dependent variable. Easting and northing are the only significant contributing variables (R2 = 0.86), of which easting has proved to be the most important factor (R2 = 0.72). The scatter around the individual trendlines of easting and northing corresponds to an increase in rainfall variability in the drier regions. Despite the remaining underestimation of rainfall in the southern part of the study area, the improved estimation of spatio-temporal rainfall variability in a mountainous region by RFEs is valuable as input to a wide range of scientific models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historically the voices of young people have been excluded from research and debates about how to respond to environmental degradation and climate change. To include the perspectives of young people in the climate change and adaptation debate, we conducted a Photovoice and draw-and-write project with 29 school students in Ethiopia, through which students were given a platform to explore their social representations of the environment. Thematic analysis of our findings suggested that young people have a deep appreciation of the moral, health-related and economic importance of the environment, a commitment to preserving it and a sense of responsibility and agency in relation to contributing to this preservation. Students saw environmental degradation as reversible, through a combination of commitment by themselves, local government and the global community. We conclude by discussing ways our findings might best be taken up in school-level programmes to strengthen youths’ existing social networks for the consolidation of ‘green’ identities, action and activism. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Climate change has become an issue which touches upon all spheres of life. To combat the problem, understanding the perceptions of all that have stake in it provides with stronger ground for decision-making. Ethiopia is one those countries that are or going to be severely affected by climate change, the solution of which partly depends on how its key decision-makers perceive the problem. In light of this a questionnaire survey was conducted on 195 volunteering members of the House of People’s Representatives in Ethiopia. The results of data analysis reveal that most identified rainfall variability, declining hydrology and increasing temperature as manifestations of climate change, and emission reduction and forest protection as its key solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Ethiopia's policy of large dam construction in the Blue Nile River basin is evaluated by simulating the impact of one downscaled midrange climate change scenario (A1B) on the performance of existing and planned irrigation and hydropower schemes. The simulation finds that by 2100: 1) average basin-wide irrigation demand will increase; 2) annual hydroelectricity generation will be just 60% of potential; and 3) flow at the Ethiopia-Sudan border will be reduced from 1661 m3/s to 1301 m3/s as a consequence of climate change in combination with upstream water resource development. Adaptation to climate change and development must be considered together. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is a geopolitical-biopolitical interrogation of the global insurance discourse in relation to climate change. Based on two general assumptions made by the insurance industry, namely that the 'Global South' remains uninsured, and that insurance is the technology for coping with environmental risk, it is argued that a risk management insurantial imaginary is effecting a globalisation of spaces of liberal security. As a result, the globalisation of a rationality of governing uncertainty through insurance aligns 'other' non-Western ways of being in the world with a Western financial capitalist rationality of governance. The argument is explored in relation to the Global South and is illustrated through the case of parametric rain insurance in Ethiopia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]