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The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted every aspect of our lives, from economic to the social facets of contemporary society. While the new COVID-19 waves may not be anticipated to be as severe as previous ones, it would be unreasonable to assume that they will cease any time soon. Consequently, forecasting the number of future infections, recovered patients, and death cases remains a very much logical step in trying to fight against further waves, in conjunction with ongoing vaccination efforts. In this paper, we investigate the efficiency of three intelligent machine learning algorithms, namely GMDH, Bi-LSTM, and GA + NN, for COVID-19 forecasting, with an application to Iran and the United Kingdom. The experimental results show that the algorithms can be used to forecast the next six months of COVID-19 in terms of confirmed, recovered, and death cases, which gives a more ample timeframe for using the results to make better practical yet strategic decisions and take appropriate actions or measures to deploy resources effectively to contain or curb the spread of the coronavirus. Despite the distinct dynamics observed in the data, our analysis proves the robustness of the employed models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How liberal governments manage knowledge, ignorance, prediction and uncertainty has attracted increased attention across the social sciences. In this paper, we analyse the strategy and rhetoric of the UK government during the COVID-19 pandemic, with particular attention to the first half of 2020. We see the initial UK policy response – as well as its later legitimation – as a form of 'politics of impossibility', effecting political change through claims of incapacity or impotence. We argue this approach departs from the uses of knowledge and ignorance in both classical liberalism and neoliberalism, and suggests the emergence of a new, hybrid form of governance which can be dubbed liberal fatalism. We discuss the relevance of this new form of governance for political futures of an increasingly volatile world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Spring 2020, the UK Government announced the cessation of in-person teaching for the vast majority of school-aged children in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Prompting an accelerated shift towards digital learning across the curriculum, this announcement was accompanied by a rise in market-based solutions to address the problem of keeping young people active, 'healthy' and 'positive' whilst at home. The most prominent of these was offered by Joe Wicks, who broadcasted PE with Joe live globally via YouTube for five days per week for eighteen weeks. The aim of this paper is to critically explore some of the contextual factors that enabled Joe Wicks to create and legitimise a public health intervention under the title of physical education, and henceforth position himself (whether intentionally or not) as an authoritative agent for change within the discipline. After outlining who Joe Wicks is, we unpack the discursive framing of PE with Joe in order to locate Wicks' intervention amid the perennial politics of physical education. We then consider the meaning of PE with Joe and why Joe Wicks' involvement in physical education matters, reflecting upon the effects of Joe Wicks on the future of physical education practice and research. Among our conclusions is that the Covid-19 pandemic provided an opportunity for Joe Wicks – here positioned and understood as a branded, celebrity lifestyle enterprise – to manoeuvre himself (and his products) from the periphery to the centre of physical education's public imagery and discourse. Furthermore, we argue that exploring the ways in which Wicks' presence in the physical education space has been received, embraced, modified, challenged and resisted is vital in discerning PE with Joe's actual or perceived effects on the social construction of physical education, and the educational engagements of young people in physical activity in the post-Covid-19 landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discourse in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic explored its likely effects on the tourism sector including the nature of recovery. Viewed through the lens of Evolutionary Economic Geography, this paper examines the preferences of four stakeholder groups for future tourism development in Northern Devon. Specifically, it reports on their views from 2021 and 2022 of three potential scenarios which were elaborated before the pandemic, and it explores whether COVID-19 was a trigger event for a change in trajectory. There was consistent support for the most sustainable trajectory, which represented the continuation of the existing arc of development, not a fundamental change in direction triggered by COVID-19. Not only does this finding contribute a retrospective critique of early opinions on possible COVID-induced change, it suggests an alternative view of the role of trigger events in destination evolution. The pandemic offered space for reflection on tourism development, as a form of 'mindful continuation' of transformation, not a 'mindful deviation' identified in some previous studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores research findings regarding the possibilities offered by remote attendance at council meetings as implemented during the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, and reflects upon how this may improve women local councillors' experiences, as well as women's political participation and the accessibility of Welsh local government going forward. Influenced by feminist institutionalist theory, this paper examines how councils' formal organisational norms and practices pre-pandemic privileged presenteeism, and explores participants' perceptions and experiences of the accessibility of local councils, especially for younger women with families and/or in other forms of employment. Presenting data from 19 semi-structured interviews with women local councillors in Wales (UK), both in-person and subsequently online during the pandemic, the paper discusses how remote attendance in local council meetings was considered an enabling shift in formal organisational practices, especially for rural councils. Despite some dissenting opinions and voiced dubiousness (mostly concerning future hybrid implementation), through easing the time costs of being a local councillor, particularly for women balancing a gendered 'triple duty' of the political, personal, and professional, remote meeting attendance is an organisational solution, albeit somewhat forced in implementation, which presents clear means of improving women's political participation and representation in local government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper draws on an autoethnographic 'digital diary' which the author began after testing positive for HIV in July 2016, until May 2021, to critically assess (mis)representations of both the AIDS and COVID-19 pandemics in the media. Drawing on insights from art, literature, queer theory and social anthropology, the paper focuses on dominant moral and political discourses to show how narratives of blame, shame and guilt about viral transmission contribute to the stigmatisation of 'at risk' groups. Concepts of biopower and normative judgement are used to reflect on discourses which construct those who 'test positive' for HIV or SARS-CoV-2 as 'reckless', 'risky' or 'irresponsible' subjects. The paper also analyses notes on recent media appearances made by the author to discuss their participation in the PARTNER study, which showed that HIV antiretroviral therapy eliminates the possibility of HIV transmission, including reports in The Guardian, on BBC News, on Sky News, on Channel 5 News, and in the Metro. As the former had reported that the 'Covid-19 crisis raises hopes of end to UK transmission of HIV', portrayals of the two pandemics are compared to explore tensions between public health and individual responsibility as normative priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the response of the English heritage sector, in particular Historic England, to the impact caused by the initial lockdown and restrictions introduced to protect lives during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. This response, headed by the Heritage Sector Response Group, relied on effective cross-sector working in order to both make the case for targeted support for the heritage sector to the UK Government and to provide advice and support for organisations during the lockdown and the limited reopening of the economy which followed. This included gathering intelligence in order to understand the impact of restrictions on the sector, which was used to swiftly develop emergency grant schemes funded by the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport, the National Lottery Heritage Fund and Historic England. The paper also considers the Historic England Heritage Online Debate around the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on the sector, which gathered case studies from across the sector to capture and share qualitative information. The paper then looks at other long term challenges facing the sector, such as climate change, and considers how a collaborative approach and lessons learned from the sector's response to the COVID-19 restrictions may provide models for building resilience for the future and developing solutions to other issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Good leadership is widely regarded as a crucial component of risk and crisis management and remains an enduring theme of more than 40 years of inquiry into emergencies, disasters, and controversies. Today, the question of good leadership has come under the spotlight again as a key factor shaping how successfully nations have dealt with the COVID-19 global health crisis. Amidst plummeting levels of public trust, the worst recession of the G7, and the highest death toll in Europe, the UK's pandemic leadership response has faced especially stern accusations of incompetence and culpability for what has been described as the most catastrophic science policy failure for a generation. Addressing these issues, this paper argues for the adoption of a more pluralised UK leadership approach for handling COVID-19. Particularly, it is contended that as COVID-19 is a multifaceted problem that presents many varied and distributed challenges, UK leadership should employ a differentiated range of strategic mechanisms and processes to help improve substantive understandings and decision-making, support collective resilience, and build adaptive capacities as the crisis continues. The paper accordingly identifies and elaborates thirteen strategies, drawing on lessons and insights from the risk and crisis management field, that are proposed to serve as a useful heuristic to help guide UK pandemic leadership in this endeavour. To illustrate the value and application of each strategy, examples are provided of noteworthy leadership responses to COVID-19 observed internationally thus far, as well as leadership problems that have hampered the UK's pandemic response. In conclusion, it is suggested that in as far as the conduct expected of leaders during a pandemic, or any other crisis, should maintain and be reflective of democratic values and standards of legitimacy, these strategies may also provide broadly applicable normative criteria against which leadership performance in handling COVID-19 may be judged as crisis ready. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transboundary dynamics of COVID-19 present an unprecedented test of organisational resilience. In the UK, the National Health Service (NHS), a talisman of collective fortitude against disease and illness, has struggled to cope with inadequate provision of virus tests, ventilators, and personal protective equipment needed to fight the pandemic. In this paper, we reflect on the historic dynamics and strategic priorities that have undermined the NHS's attempts to navigate these troubled times. We invoke the organisational resilience literature to address 'the good, the bad and the ugly' of preparedness in readiness and response to the current pandemic. In particular, we draw on Meyer's (1982) seminal work on 'adaptation to jolts', excavating current preparedness failings. We argue an overreliance on perceived efficiency benefits of 'lean production' and 'just in time' continuity planning superseded strategic redundancy and slack in the system. This strategic focus was not simply the result of a failure in foresight, but rather a failure to act adaptively on knowledge of the known threats and weaknesses spotlighted by earlier projections of an inevitable pandemic threat. In conclusion, we consider how the UK Government and NHS must now undergo a phase of 'readjustment' in Meyer's terms, in light of these failings. We suggest that independent responsibility for national future preparedness should be handed to the NHS free from political interference. This would operate under the umbrella of a national emergency preparedness, resilience and response public body, enshrined in law, and similar in governance to the current Bank of England. This will help ensure that foresight is accompanied by durability and fortitude in safeguarding the UK against future pandemic threats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 crisis has had a significant impact on UK craft breweries. In this paper we explore and assess the impact of COVID-19 on the UK craft beer sector from a locational perspective, targeting entrepreneurial responses from breweries within and across the urban, suburban and rural dimensions. Using a mix of quantitative and qualitative data collected between 2015 and 2022, we identify a marked geographical contextualization in terms of how UK craft breweries adapted and responded to the pandemic crisis, which explains how location shaped and still shape breweries' strategies in a post-COVID-19 'new normal' world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the COVID-19 pandemic now affects the entire world, countries have had diverse responses. Some responded faster than others, with considerable variations in strategy. After securing border control, primary health care approaches (public health and primary care) attempt to mitigate spread through public education to reduce person-to-person contact (hygiene and physical distancing measures, lockdown procedures), triaging of cases by severity, COVID-19 testing, and contact-tracing. An international survey of primary care experts' perspectives about their country's national responseswas conducted April to early May 2020. This mixed method paper reports on whether they perceived that their country's decision-making and pandemic response was primarily driven by medical facts, economic models, or political ideals; initially intended to develop herd immunity or flatten the curve, and the level of decision-making authority (federal, state, regional). Correlations with country-level death rates and implications of political forces and processes in shaping a country's pandemic response are presented and discussed, informed by our data and by the literature. The intersection of political decision-making, public health/primary care policies and economic strategies is analysed to explore implications of COVID-19's impact on countries with different levels of social and economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to discuss and evaluate how prison administrators in England and Wales responded to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The first case of COVID-19 was confirmed in the United Kingdom (UK) in late January 2020. In the days that followed, the number of positive cases grew exponentially; by the end of March thousands of new cases were detected daily and several hundred people had died of COVID-19. In response to the pandemic crisis, Prime Minster Boris Johnson mandated a national lockdown on March 23 and prison administrators were told to immediately begin implementing Exceptional Regime Management Plans. These Plans included (1) strategies to minimize the risk of transmission of the virus within prisons, (2) measures to reduce the potential for the virus to enter prisons, and (3) methods to manage prison populations in order to contain the virus. Overall, 6 months into the coronavirus crisis, the adopted measures appear to have helped curtail the spread of the virus within prisons, but at a great cost to the inmates and their families. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

University students in the UK have encountered many challenges as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. This research aimed to track the mental well-being of a large sample of British university students (n = 554) over a one-year period of the COVID-19 pandemic, capturing data at four time points between May 2020 and May 2021. Overall retention after 12 months was 34.73%. Findings showed the COVID-19 pandemic has caused a significant, negative impact on the well-being of British university students. Students are suffering from prolonged and high levels of psychological distress and anxiety. Levels of flourishing in students are still very low. The different phases of the pandemic appear to have played an influential role in student mental health. The practical implications for higher education and recommendations for future research are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Covid-19 pandemic has spotlighted the relationship between mobilities and gender-based violence (GBV). The national lockdowns across the world have im/mobilised people, creating extraordinary social proximities that have been associated with a 'shadow pandemic' of violence. Before the pandemic, GBV was often im/mobilised in academic and policy thinking in that it was located in unconnected static sites. This article is based on a transdisciplinary project that seeks to produce understandings of GBV in the Covid-19 pandemic, using the heuristic lens of im/mobilities. The project aims to do so through the creation and analysis of personal stories detailing experiences of GBV across the UK. These stories are in the form of existing first-hand accounts on campaign websites, magazines and newspapers. Through them this article investigates how im/mobilities precipitate gendered violence, both felt and experienced, and examines how embodied experiences become situated in mobile spaces—inside, outside and online—in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic. In doing so, it evolves the concept of im/mobilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are widespread concerns about the mental health implications of the pandemic, particularly among university students, an already at-risk population for poor mental health. This study looked at 1,281 UK university students, recruited through the Prolific website. Participants were asked to complete the Attitudes towards COVID-19 Scale, the CORE-10, the PERMA Profiler, the GAD-7 and the Office for National Statistics wellbeing questions (ONS4). The first survey was conducted between May 14th and 16th, when the UK was in national lockdown. The second survey was carried out between June 26th and July 15th. There was only an 11% attrition rate between the two time points. Well-being improved overall between the two time points. Some findings were contradictory as overall well-being, anxiety and levels of flourishing improved, but reports of psychological distress increased. It is also important to note that levels of positivity about the pandemic increased as time went on. There was evidence that higher levels of positivity were linked to better mental health outcomes. Encouraging a positive mindset and outlook in students, probably through positive psychology-based interventions, might act as a protective factor against severe mental illness. The wider relevance and practical implications for higher education are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Schools across the UK were mostly closed from March to July 2020 due to Covid-19. Therefore, parents and children found themselves thrust into a prolonged period of home-schooling. In this study, parents (N = 2,122) reported on their children's (N = 3,230) home-schooling experiences and its impacts on their children's academic progress. Parental reports suggest that children spent around 3 hours each weekday doing schoolwork at home. Children enrolled in private secondary schools received 4 hours of virtual lessons each weekday from teachers, while state school children received just 1 hour. Parents, on the whole, reported concern for children's academic progress. This is particularly so for children in secondary school and, most strikingly, those in school years antecedent to final exams (Years 10 and 12). Parents were less concerned about academic progress for those in Years 11 and 13, who had received their final exam grades shortly before the time of the survey. This study highlights the fact that children have been unequally affected by Covid-19 school closures, depending on their year group and school type, which should be considered in future research and policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores how the asymmetric institutionalization of the United Kingdom's multinationality interacted with the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK's political elite has traditionally accepted the country's multinational character, but democratic institutionalization of it occurred relatively recently and in a remarkably asymmetric manner. Only the UK's minority nations possess devolved governments, while the largest nation, England, is governed directly from the center. This framework has consequences for the pandemic response. It has clarified the relevance of devolved legislatures, but also highlights continued resistance of the UK's governing elite to acknowledge the multi-level character of the state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During COVID-19, various public institutions tried to shape citizens' behaviour to slow the spread of the pandemic. How did their authority affect citizens' support of public measures taken to combat the spread of COVID-19? The article makes two contributions. First, it presents a novel conceptualisation of authority as a source heuristic. Second, it analyses the authority of four types of public institutions (health ministries, universities, public health agencies, the WHO) in two countries (Germany and the UK), drawing on novel data from a survey experiment conducted in May 2020. On average, institutional endorsements seem to have mattered little. However, there is an observable polarisation effect where citizens who ascribe much expertise to public institutions support COVID-19 measures more than the control group. Furthermore, those who ascribe little expertise support them less than the control group. Finally, neither perception of biases nor exposure to institutions in public debates seems consistently to affect their authority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of COVID-19 on informant use and management, during the peak of the imposed Government lockdown measures was felt across English and Welsh police Dedicated Source Units. Within these restrictions, staff managing informants had to develop and then implement new strategies that delivered safe, yet effective, informant handling capacity and capability. Based on a survey of 205 respondents directly involved in the handling, control or authorisation of informants, this article examined their perceptions of the effect of COVID-19 in this highly specialised policing activity. The research findings revealed five broad themes associated with the impact of COVID-19 on informant management practices: (i) health protection; (ii) governance; (iii) innovation and technology; (iv) recruitment, communication and informant development and (v) tradecraft and intelligence. The article explored the organisational responses to initiating and maintaining informant-handler relationships and ensuring the flow of intelligence within this unique operational environment. Participants perceived that handler-informant relationships were strengthened, and also indications of a willingness to adapt policy and procedure associated with the informant management cycle: targeting, initial recruitment contact, assessment and evaluation, tasking and deployment and payment of informant rewards. It also highlighted a wider consensus that there was further scope for enhancing resilience to similar future pandemics including the use of enabling technology and responsive policy adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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As the impact of COVID-19 emerged in early 2020 and physical movement was restricted as a public health measure, digital media consumption behaviour changed dramatically. The accelerated move to online consumption increased the urgency for memory institutions such as museums to introduce new ways to digitally experience cultural collections. This research aimed to understand how memory institutions adapted during COVID-19 lockdowns by surveying the existing and novel digital resources that enabled access to cultural heritage organizations. The research was conducted during the UK lockdown period (April–July 2020) when we collected and analysed data from 83 heritage institutions in the UK and in the USA regarding the number, type, format, intended audience and intended aims of digital engagement opportunities they offered. The analysis evidences how different types of memory institutions responded to social need during the lockdown by supporting online visitors with resources such as educational material, live events and creative activities, and highlights where museums have acted effectively and where changed approaches are indicated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]