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This review paper focuses on the question of what will happen to the future water resource system of Grand Renaissance Dam of Ethiopia based on the projected hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile River basin. For this, the hydrological extremes, the baseline hydrological trends, and projected hydrological extremes of the Upper Blue Nile River basin were reviewed from various published and unpublished sources. Changes in the future hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile River basin due to climate change or any other natural or manmade modification of the river basin deserve concerted attention in the future water resources system of the Grand Renaissance Dam of Ethiopia, because the water resources of the dam mainly depend on the water potential nature of the Upper Blue Nile River basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The construction of Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam is a fait accompli. By 2022, around 90 per cent of its construction had been completed, but only two of the 13 turbines were producing electricity, and so uncertainty remains over the dam's impact on the Nile's downstream countries. After protracted negotiations between Ethiopia, where the waters originate, and Egypt and Sudan, the two states most heavily dependent on Nile waters, the result is diplomatic stalemate. The intractable problem is not so much the dam but rather the 1902 and 1929 treaties between Great Britain and its then Egyptian and Sudanese colonies over the utilisation of the Nile waters. While Ethiopia was not a British colony, it was a party to the 1902 Treaty, but has always interpreted the water-sharing arrangements as inequitable. The problem's resolution is now fiendishly complex. Impoverished Ethiopia has unilaterally proceeded with a hugely expensive dam, and the contemporary danger is that with diplomatic efforts seemingly exhausted, the military option becomes a distinct possibility. The question is whether Egypt's military posturing is real-politik or simply rhetoric. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work investigates the applicability of an analytical method for quick assessments of the long-term morphological effects of different dam operations on downstream river reaches with the idea to apply the method in feasibility studies to identify the least morphologic-impacting operation scenario. The Ribb River (Ethiopia) is used as a study case. The analytical method estimates the idealized, new equilibrium of the river bed profile without considering the duration of the morphological evolution. We apply the analytical method distinguishing sand-bed from gravel-bed reaches. The outcome of the analytical method is compared to that of a calibrated one-dimensional river morphology computer model. The analytical method overestimated the morphological changes compared to the one-dimensional model. By establishing the upper limits of the impact, the analytical method identifies a theoretical maximum river bed degradation near the base of the dam. If all sediment is trapped in the reservoir, the method allows distinguishing the effects of different dam operation scenarios, but only for gravel-bed river reaches. However, the method can also be applicable for sand-bed reaches if there is sediment input from the upper reaches. Further research works should be done to validate both methods if they indeed allow to detect the least impacting scenario, considering that data showing the effects of long-term dam operations on the downstream river reaches are lacking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on extensive field information, farmer-led small-scale irrigation systems along the dam-regulated Tekeze River is investigated and the likelihood of future irrigation expansion within the area with modelled potential is discussed, considering facilitating and hampering factors. Due to dam-induced hydrologic alterations, downstream socio-ecological systems have strongly transformed as the irrigated area has quadrupled and the post-dam potential for perennial crop cultivation has attracted numerous migrant investors to the area, inducing inequalities but also providing opportunities. Future dam construction should involve tailored policy interventions to facilitate irrigation expansion, while safeguarding equal and sustainable access to water and land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The preponderant focus of the negotiations between Ethiopia and Egypt over the use of the Nile/the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is on material aspects of water security, ignoring non-material, emotional attachments. Using ontological security as an analytical lens, it is argued that the GERD will lead to re-structuring Egypt's state identity conception while potentially serving as an anchor to Ethiopia's changing ontological security. If the negotiations are to transform interactions and build a cooperative routinized relationship more time and resources should be spent on building trust, especially in constructing more compatible state identities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the effects of water microdams and ensuing waterborne diseases on household decisions in Tigray, Ethiopia, where the government implemented a water resource development programme two decades ago. We find microdams increase productivity of both fuelwood collection and crop production, but the costs of these dams to households can be significant. In villages close to dams, disease prevalence is higher and all household labour categories spend more time sick, and more time is spent by male and female adults caring for sick family members. These can cost the household anywhere in the region of 150-250 Birr per season, depending on the type of labour diversion and the productivity of labour. Males are most significant here. Removing their time from production results in 40-60 per cent higher productivity and income losses compared to diversion of female labour. Sick households also spend significantly more money on health care, especially when male and female adults are sick. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]